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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-22-2008 04:51 AM

000
fxus64 klix 220931
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
431 am cdt mon sep 22 2008

.short term...
A tranquil pattern will be in place for most of the next week
across the central gulf coast region. Upper shortwave trough over
the mid/southern atlantic coast region will continue to slowly
move away from our area with a large dome of high pressure taking
control the next couple days. Just in time for the first day of
autumn...northeast winds at the surface are bringing lower
dewpoints in the 60s in from the expanding dry high pressure ridge
over the southeast states. High temperatures will be seasonably
warm again today...but will not feel as hot as yesterday with the
lower humidity. A weak convergence boundary and higher moisture
content over the southernmost coastal waters will continue to
support showers and a few thunderstorms...a few of which may brush
the southeast louisiana coastal sections today...tonight...and
tuesday. Humidity will creep up again on tuesday making it feel
more summer-like.

.long term...
The trough over the southeast atlantic coastal section is
expected to become a deep layer low pressure system which is
expected to move back west across the southeast states wednesday
through friday before shearing out and lifting northeast over the
weekend. At the surface...high pressure will continue to build
south over the lower mississippi valley with another surge of
lower humidity expected tuesday night into wednesday. This pattern
will keep rain chances near zero for most days as the lower
humidity allows low temperatures to fall into the upper 50s over
some of the cooler northern locations wednesday night and thursday
night. The weekend looks dry with comfortable temperatures
expected at this point. 22

&&

.aviation...
A dry airmass associated with strong ridging building in from the
north will allow for vfr conditions at all of the terminals today
and tonight. 32

&&

.marine...
A persistent east to northeast flow will remain in place through the
end of the week...as a pressure gradient between a high to the north
of the region and a low in the bay of campeche tightens up. Due to
the persistent easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots...expect tides to
build along east facing shores and in the tidal lakes through the
week. Some minor coastal flooding may be possible due to these
higher tides outside of the levee protection system. Seas will also
climb due to these strong persistent winds...with exercise caution
conditions expected across the coastal waters. 32

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-22-2008 07:17 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE STRETCH OF DRY AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES EXCEPT FLORIDA. LOWERING
OF DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE ADVECTING FROM THE APPALACHIANS AND
MAY BECOME ENHANCED IN TIME AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS SHOW THIS EXTRA-
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING INTO SOUTH CAROLINA OR GEORGIA BY MID-WEEK
THAT MAY BRING WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT REALLY DRY AIR ON THE FRINGES SHOULD BE FORCED UPON US. THIS
WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL AFFECT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT
NICE EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEK OVER LAND AREAS. ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES THAT MAY PRODUCE MINOR INUNDATION AT
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE
SYSTEMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME AS IT SEEMS THE
DURATION IS LIMITED TO PEAK TIDE AND NOT DURING THE ENTIRE TIDE
CYCLE. THE TIDES WILL BE CONTINUALLY MONITORED AND MAY HAVE TO BE
ADDRESSED WITH A WATCH IN THE FUTURE IF EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUING TO SEE MVFR CIGS AT GPT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THESE
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE A REOCCURANCE OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. 35

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION AND A LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TIGHTENS UP. DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...EXPECT TIDES TO
BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND IN THE TIDAL LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY SEEING TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON TIDAL
LAKES...LESS THAN A FOOT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB DUE TO
THESE STRONG PERSISTENT WINDS...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-23-2008 05:54 AM

000
fxus64 klix 230933
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area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
433 am cdt tue sep 23 2008

.short term...
High pressure will generally control our weather the next couple
days. The only exception will be today as satellite shows a weak
easterly wave/convergence feature south of the western florida
panhandle/alabama coast area. This feature may bring just enough
lift and moisture to produce a continuation of isolated showers
and a few thunderstorms over the coastal waters and southeast
louisiana coastal sections...with a few showers possible as far
inland as the south shore of lake pontchartrain and baton rouge
by late morning or afternoon. Outside of any rain areas...skies
will remain mostly sunny with temperatures expected to be a couple
degrees warmer than yesterday.

Weakening of the 500 mb high pressure on wednesday combined with
expanding surface high pressure to our northeast will cause
gradual cooling and drying of the low levels tonight and
wednesday. There is no chance of rain on wednesday.

.long term...
A mid to low level closed low off the atlantic coast is expected
to retrograde west and northwest back into the carolinas thursday
into friday before moving back northeast over the weekend. This
will leave the central gulf coast in a dry air regime with lower
than normal dewpoints supporting cooler than normal lows/nighttime
temperatures and near normal highs through the weekend. It looks
like the next chance of rain after today will not come until at
least tuesday of next week.

&&

.aviation...
Some cumulus...possibly producing brief cigs in the 3000-4000 feet
range...and isolated shra may impact the kmsy and kbtr tafs by
late morning or afternoon...otherwise vfr weather will prevail
today. Drier air will deliver little in the way of clouds and a
near zero chance of any rain or showers tonight through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.marine...
Small craft should exercise caution today...tonight and wednesday
as east to northeast winds will be in the 15 to 20 knots range
during much of the period. A high pressure ridge building in from
the northeast will gradually deliver cooler drier air starting
tonight through thursday morning which will contribute to stronger
winds over the water.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2008 08:44 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 230933
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TODAY AS SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE/CONVERGENCE FEATURE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE/ALABAMA COAST AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FAR
INLAND AS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND BATON ROUGE
BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN AREAS...SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

WEAKENING OF THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH
EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CAUSE
GRADUAL COOLING AND DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE WEST AND NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A DRY AIR REGIME WITH LOWER
THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS/NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER TODAY WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT
LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME CUMULUS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING BRIEF CIGS IN THE 3000-4000 FEET
RANGE...AND ISOLATED SHRA MAY IMPACT THE KMSY AND KBTR TAFS BY
LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL DELIVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND A
NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF ANY RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY DELIVER COOLER DRIER AIR STARTING
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE WATER.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2008 06:58 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
304 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONLY REAL CONCERN BEING TEMPERATURES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATES 10 AND 12 AND WEST OF A GRAND ISLE TO COVINGTON
LINE...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE OFFING. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND RETROGRADES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEFORE
WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AT ALL LEVELS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALLING BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING BELOW ONE
INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SINCE THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
WELL...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL
PREVAIL IN MOST LOCATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS EXPECTED SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MAY AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER IN RESPONSE TO THE
WESTWARD DRIFTING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND THIS IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE...WILL NOT COME
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGS OVER THE EASTERN U.S


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-24-2008 06:21 AM

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area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
430 am cdt wed sep 24 2008

.synopsis...pleasant autumn conditions...quite a contrast to the
unbearable relentless heat that followed the major hurricanes of
2005...are taking hold of the forecast area and are likely to
persist through the end of september with a possible strong cold
front arriving around the beginning of october.

Water vapor imagery shows a closed low pressure system forming off
the carolina coast with a deep trough extending south towards
cuba. Subtropical high pressure/ridges are noted over west
central mexico and east central mexico/southwest gulf of mexico. A
southern branch/sub-tropical jet stream is noted curving
anticyclonically from the texas big bend to the central gulf coast
region to the florida keys. At the surface up to 700 mb...a ridge
of high pressure to the north and northeast dominates our weather.

.short term...
The sub-tropical jet will bring some high clouds today...but most
of these will be dissipating or thin as they move across the
forecast area today. Of more significance is the lower dewpoints
that will bring lower humidity and much more comfortable
conditions today despite the expected seasonably warm high
temperatures. The minor low level easterly wave that moved
through the area yesterday is pushing west across southeast texas
allowing the dry air to work in from the east and northeast.

The dry air and light northeast winds tonight will allow
temperatures to cool to the coolest readings of the season and
this will start a trend that will continue into thursday night.
Upper 50s for lows are expected across most areas west and north
of lake pontchartrain into southern mississippi tonight with mid
to upper 50s expected thursday night.


.long term...
Upper low will move northwest across the carolinas friday then
move rapidly north friday night and saturday. The large mass of
dry air will remain locked in across the central gulf coast region
through the weekend and likely into early next week. A baroclinic
low pressure area may form in the southern gulf of mexico early
next week which would likely move northeast along the frontal
boundary that will be draped over the florida peninsula. The next
chance of rain...which looks very slim at this point...will be
with a cold front/reinforcing high pressure next tuesday night or
wednesday. 22

&&

.aviation...
Vfr conditions are expected at all terminals through the next
several days. Winds will be stronger at locations closer to the
coast with gusts averaging around 25 mph. 17

&&

.marine...
A tight pressure gradient between a high to the northeast and a low in
the southern gulf of mexico will continue to result in moderate east
to northeast winds. The persistent easterly winds will continue to
cause above normal tides on east facing shores. Currently tides are
around 1 to 2 feet above normal. The pressure gradient will begin to
relax by friday with both winds and seas subsiding. A cold front will
approach the coastal waters early next week. 17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-24-2008 07:32 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS...QUITE A CONTRAST TO THE
UNBEARABLE RELENTLESS HEAT THAT FOLLOWED THE MAJOR HURRICANES OF
2005...ARE TAKING HOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER WITH A POSSIBLE STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVING AROUND THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARDS
CUBA. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGES ARE NOTED OVER WEST
CENTRAL MEXICO AND EAST CENTRAL MEXICO/SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. A
SOUTHERN BRANCH/SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM IS NOTED CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. AT THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM...
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT MOST
OF THESE WILL BE DISSIPATING OR THIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
THAT WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS TODAY DESPITE THE EXPECTED SEASONABLY WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE MINOR LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO THE COOLEST READINGS OF THE SEASON AND
THIS WILL START A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER 50S FOR LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST AND NORTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT WITH MID
TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THEN
MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LARGE MASS OF
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BAROCLINIC
LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY FORM IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN...WHICH LOOKS VERY SLIM AT THIS POINT...WILL BE
WITH A COLD FRONT/REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. 22

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH GUSTS AVERAGING AROUND 25 MPH. 17

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-25-2008 05:13 AM

000
fxus64 klix 250911
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
411 am cdt thu sep 25 2008

.short term...
A large surface to mid level ridge...which now extends from the
northeastern conus to the lower great lakes to the central and
southern plains will continue to dominate our weather today. This
high has brought very dry air for this time of year to areas from
the southern appalachians to the central gulf coast with
precipitable water /pw/ below one inch. Goes sounder data even
shows an area of pw below one quarter inch over extreme western
north carolina. A stacked low pressure system off the carolina
coast...an extra-tropical system at this time...is expected to
move west-northwest and inland over the carolinas on friday.
Subsidence on the west/southwest side of this low and advection
will cause even drier air to move into the central gulf region
today through friday. Temperatures are falling steadily early this
morning and many locales north of lake pontchartrain into southern
mississippi have already fallen into the upper 50s. The dry air
will heat up with full sun today and rebound to near normal values
of 83 to 84. Lows tonight will be even cooler than this morning...
Then highs on friday will be about the same as today under bright
sunshine.

.long term...
Cool nights/early mornings...seasonably warm afternoons...and
mostly clear skies will continue into the weekend as dry air holds
over the area. A weak baroclinic low pressure system or wave may
form in the central or southern gulf of mexico early next week as
a mid/upper trough moves southeast from canada into the upper/mid
mississippi valley. A southern extension of this trough...along
with a cold front followed by reinforcing high pressure...will
move across the central gulf coast region tuesday into wednesday.
The low or wave and associated deeper moisture will then move
northeast across florida tuesday or wednesday. Have left rain out
of the forecast with the frontal passage since moisture content
looks inadequate to support more than a 10 percent chance of
showers at this point. 22

&&

.aviation...
Vfr conditions are expected at all terminals through the next
several days. Winds will be stronger at locations close to the coast
with some a few gusts of around 20 kt possible. 35

&&

.marine...
A tight pressure gradient between a high to the northeast and a low in
the southern gulf of mexico will continue to result in moderate east
to northeast winds for the next 24 to 36 hours before winds and
waves subside somewhat. Persistent winds will continue to cause
above normal tides on east facing shores. Currently tides are around
1 to 2 feet above normal. Will maintain exercise caution over the
gulf waters today as winds will remain in the 15 to 20 kt range with
seas of 4 to 6 feet. Winds and seas may pick up again about tuesday
with the passage of another cold front. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-25-2008 09:00 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A LARGE SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY. THIS
HIGH HAS BROUGHT VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO AREAS FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ BELOW ONE INCH. GOES SOUNDER DATA EVEN
SHOWS AN AREA OF PW BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH OVER EXTREME WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW AND ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE EVEN DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING STEADILY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MANY LOCALES NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE DRY AIR
WILL HEAT UP WITH FULL SUN TODAY AND REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
OF 83 TO 84. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...
THEN HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY UNDER BRIGHT
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...
COOL NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS...SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRY AIR HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. A WEAK BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR WAVE MAY
FORM IN THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW OR WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEFT RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. 22

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-25-2008 09:49 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS OF NO PRECIP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LOW OVER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THE NORTHERLY STREAM WAS WELL NORTH AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
NOTED...LEAVING A NORTHERLY DRY FLOW OVER THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST MAINTAINING A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH NO
MOISTURE RETURN OR SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BRING IN MOISTURE AND GFS ONLY INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UP TO 1.3 INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NIGHT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS THROUGH SAT AND NEAR NORMS BEYOND
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT MCB WHERE THERE MAY BE A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG NEAR DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AT LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
THE EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AND THUS THE HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED
FROM THIS AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM IN THE OUTER
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE STILL
RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 5 FEET AT BUOY 42040. LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH THEY MAY PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT