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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-05-2006 06:13 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLIX 050908
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 AM CDT WED APR 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AREA ABOUT TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION FROM COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO A
MORE MOIST AIRMASS AS GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS TONIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WORKING NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IS IN SOUTHERN NEVADA NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING
AND WILL ONSET A VERY DYNAMIC BAROCLINIC EVOLUTION UPON CROSSING
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES THURSDAY TO DEEPEN
THE SYSTEM AND SWING A LOBE OF THE ENERGY WELL SOUTH INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN ITS DEPICTION...THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD
BE AS SEVERE OR PERHAPS WORSE THAN THE DEVASTATING STORM SYSTEM
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MIDWEST STATES SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE IN OUR AREA...THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN LAST FRONT TO GIVE AREA A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT A LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST
THREE MONTHS. NONETHELESS...ANY RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS AS THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE.

BEYOND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES FOR SUNDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
IN RESPONSE TO NEW TROUGHING IN THE WEST. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER DYNAMIC SPRING STORM FOR EASTER WEEKEND THAT
MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE RECENT SYSTEMS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-06-2006 05:40 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
315 Am Cdt Thu Apr 6 2006

.discussion...continued Dry And Slightly Warmer Conditions Look To
Be In Store For The Forecast Area Today As An Upper Level Ridge
Moves Eastward Across The Southeast States While High Pressure At
The Surface Builds Toward The Atlantic Basin. The Models Look To
Remain Somewhat Consistent With Moving The Ridge Pattern Toward
The East Fri Ahead Of An Advancing Shortwave Out Of The Plains
States. This Shortwave And Associated Cold Front Then Look To
Sweep Through The Region Fri Night And Early Sat. While Moisture
Return Looks Marginal At Best...a Chance For Rain And Thunder
Will Remain In The Forecast During This Time Period Before Yet
Another Clearing Trend Begins Sat As Canadian High Pressure Builds
Across The Eastern Conus.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-10-2006 06:00 AM

Fxus64 Klix 100727
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
227 Am Cdt Mon Apr 10 2006

.discussion...
Tranquil Conditions Will Continue Through The Forecast Period As Ridging
At The Surface And Aloft Prevails During The Balance Of The
Upcoming Week. A Short Wave Trough Moving Along The Canadian Border
Will Suppress The Ridge During The Middle Of The Week With Another
Upper Trough Moving Out Of The West And Into The Upper Mississippi
Valley Doing The Same For The End Of The Weekend Into Early Next
Week. The Precipitation Associated With These Systems Will Remain
Well To The North Of The Area Resulting In A Continuation Of The
Very Dry Conditions. Temperatures And Dew Points Will Gradually
Rise During The Week With Temperatures Running Above Normal
Through The Period.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-12-2006 03:59 AM

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
303 Am Cdt Wed Apr 12 2006

.discussion...
Few Changes Are Planned For The Previous Forecast Package As A
Static Weather Pattern For The Region Means A Continuation Of Dry
And Tranquil Conditions Through The Forecast Period. The Upper
Level Ridging That Has Dominated The Gulf Coast Region Will Be
Suppressed Today As A Short Wave Trough Traverses The Great Lakes
Region. The Weaker Ridge In A Addition To Some High Cloudiness
Today Should Will Help Hold Temperatures Down A Degree Or Two From
What They Otherwise Would Be. The Ridge Will Re- Amplify For The
End Of The Week Before Being Temporarily Dampened Again As Another
Short Wave Trough Moves Out Of The West And Into The Upper
Mississippi Valley And Great Lakes Region. The Ridge Will Amplify
Again In The Wake Of This System Early Next Week. Medium Range
Models Do Indicate A Pattern Change For The End Of Next Week With
A Possible Frontal Passage For The Area Around Thursday. In The
Mean Time...temperatures Will Remain Above Normal.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-13-2006 06:37 AM

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Fxus64 Klix 130801
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
301 Am Cdt Thu Apr 13 2006

.discussion...
Again Relatively Few Changes Are Planned For The Previous Forecast
Package As A Static Weather Pattern Remains In Place Across The
Region With Dry And Quiet Conditions Continuing Through Most Of
The Forecast Period. Upper Level Ridging Will Strengthen Through
The End Of The Work Week Before Being Temporarily Dampened Over
The Weekend As A Short Wave Trough Moves Out Of The West And
Across The Upper Mississippi Valley And Great Lakes Region. The
Ridge Will Amplify Again In The Wake Of This System Early Next
Week. An Upper Trough Is Forecast To Move Across The Northern
Conus Into The Eastern U.s. During The Middle Of Next Week And
Push A Cold Front Across The Forecast Area Wednesday And Wednesday
Night Which Will Bring A Slight Chance For Precipitation To The
Area And Lower Temperatures Somewhat. In The Mean Time...
Temperatures Will Remain Above Normal.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-15-2006 09:07 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
356 Am Cdt Sat Apr 15 2006

.discussion...
Latest Upper Air Analysis At 250mb Showed Ridge Axis From Mexico To
The Mid Mississippi Valley...trough Axis From Just East Of Florida
To Yucatan And North Northwest Flow Over The Central Gulf Coast. At
500mb...westerly Flow Was Noted Over The Central Gulf Coast...high
Over Mexico And West Gulf With A Ridge Axis From Texas To The
Dakotas. At 850mb...high Was Situated Over East Gulf And Southwest
Flow Of 5 To 15 Knots Over Forecast Area And 20 Knots Over North
Mississippi...north Louisiana And East Texas. Surface Analysis
Continue To Show 1017mb High Over Gulf And Southwest Flow Over Ms
And La. Surfaces Winds Are Around 7 To 10 Knots...higher Than 24 Hours
Ago...and Temps About 5 Degrees Warmer Than 24 Hours Ago. Winds
Are A Little Slower To Decouple And Fog Will Be A Slower To
Develop This Morning.

Upper Air Level Trough Is Expected To Take Routine
Track...starting A Little Farther South Tracking Across The Four
Corners Region Today....to The Upper Mississippi Valley
Sunday...then Track Southeast Toward The North Carolina Coast By
Monday. Long Story To Say It Will Flatten The Ridge Today And
Sunday...only To Be Replaced Warmer Temps At 500mb By Monday.
Northeast Flow Behind The Front Will Only Advect In Dry Air In
The Mid Layer. In Addition...associated Surface Low Will Attempt
To Bring A Back Door Front To Jackson To Tallahassee Tuesday Into
Wednesday. Adiabatic Compression And Relatively Dry Air Will Only
Produce Very Warm Surface Temps Monday Through Wednesday. Another
System Will Become Closed Low Over The Northern Plains By
Wednesday And Track East Northeast Through The Latter Part Of Next
Week. As A Result...the Ridge Will Shift East Over Southeast
States Placing The Central Gulf Coast...ark-latex And Mid South On
The Southwest Moist Flow Side Of The Ridge Next Friday Through
Sunday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-17-2006 05:56 AM

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Fxus64 Klix 170935
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
435 Am Cdt Mon Apr 17 2006

.synopsis...
A Warm Mid/upper Level Ridge Along With Southwest Surface Winds
Will Bring Near Record High Temperatures To The Forecast Area
Today And Especially On Tuesday. The Ridge Will Flatten Out
Wednesday Through The Weekend As A Very Slow Moving Low Pressure
System Moves From The Northern Plains To The Great Lakes Region.
Shortwave Energy Passing South Of This System Will Help Push A
Weak Cold Front Into Central Or Possibly Inland South La Thursday
And Friday. A Surface Low Pressure System May Move Across The
Lower Ms Valley On Saturday As A More Substantial Shortwave Moves
Across The Gulf Coast States. The Ecmwf Is A Bit Stronger With
This Feature Friday Into Saturday...so This Will Have To Be
Watched For A More Substantial Chance Of Showers And
Thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
Given The Drought Situation...am Generally Inclined To Go On The
Dry Side Of Pop Guidance. Will Hold On To Slight Chance Pops North
Friday...but Have Raised To 30 Percent For The North On Saturday.
Sunday Could Be Completely Dry If The Ecmwf Scenario Holds
On...but Timing Concerns And A Lingering Frontal Boundary...heat
And Instability Should Support A Slight Chance Of Convection.

&&

.aviation...11u-3.9u Satellite Imagery Showed A Stratocu Deck Over
Much Of The Forecast Area And Over Our Taf Forecast Sites. This
Trend Should Continue Thru 12 To 14z Until Temps Climb And More
Westerly Mixed Down. Do Anticipate A Scattered Layer Between 3 To
4kft By Midday. Surface Winds Are Expected To Decouple Tonight With
An Inversion Btr...mcb And Gpt May Experience A Scattered Stracu
Deck 0.5 To 10kft And Vis 5sm In Fog And With Bkn Layer Less Than
Half The Time And Vis Down To 1 To 2sm In Fog By Tuesday 12z.

.marine...will Continue Small Craft Exercise Caution Through 6 Am
This Morning For Coastal Zones East Of The River. Expected The
Pressure Gradient To Slowly Relax Tonight. Not Expecting A Cold
Front To Enter The Coastal Waters Wednesday. Onshore Is Expected To
Weaken Wednesday And Resume Thursday Afternoon.

.fire...rh Values Should Remain Above 45 Percent Area Wide Today And
Above 40 Percent Tuesday. Most Areas South Of Interstate-10 Are
Experiencing A Severe Drought According To Cpc. Many Areas Remain
Under Local Burn Bans.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-19-2006 01:48 PM

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Fxus64 Klix 190841
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
341 Am Cdt Wed Apr 19 2006

.discussion...
Same Story Different Day. Hot Once Again With Near Record Highs
For The Area. Nothing In The Near Term To Break The Heat. A Cold
Front Moves Into The Picture Friday Evening. Current Gfs Model
Trends Try To Punch The Front Through Saturday. The Gfs Is
Stronger Due To Its Solution For A Stronger Upper Low Over
Southern California. No Doubt If This Scenario Takes Place We Will
See Some Strong To Severe Ts By Friday Evening. The Eta Is
Completely Opposite In Temporal And Spatial Resolution Ending In
No Severity. It Simply Weakens The Upper Low And Opens It Into The Main
Flow And Does Not Aplify It As Much Causing A Weak Front To Move
Into The Area Possibly Stall And Then Retreat. For
Consistency...have Chose To Keep Ongoing Forecast As Is Unless
Some Stronger Agreement Takes Place.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-20-2006 06:55 AM

Fxus64 Klix 200841
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
341 Am Cdt Thu Apr 20 2006

.discussion...
Finally Some Agreement In Model Solutions. Current Forecast Looks
Good To Hold On To For The Moment. Have Adjusted For Better
Agreement With Surrounding Offices But No Major Changes Were Made.
Ridge That Has Been Holding Firm Over The Area For The Last Few
Weeks Will Finally Flatten And Move East As A Cold Front Moves
Into The Area On Friday. The First Significant Rain In A While
Will Finally Fall Across The Area. With The Good Often Comes The
Bad...the Upper And Mid Level Trough Associated With The Front Is
Expected To Be Quite Sharp As An Upper Low Moves To The Base Of
The Current Long Wave Trough Stuck Over The Upper Plains States.
This Will Cause The Bottom Of The Long Wave Trough To Sharpen
Causing Jet Level Winds To Diverge Sharply. That Will Help Induce
A Few Severe Ts With The Activity As It Moves Through. After The
Front Moves Through...high Pressure Will Turn Our Winds To
Northerly And Bring Some Dry Air Back In. But Don`t Look For This
To Last Very Long. The High Will Quickly Move To The East And
Moisture Laden Southerly Winds Will Envelope The Area Once Again.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-21-2006 07:57 AM

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 63. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 84. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low near 64. South wind around 5 mph.