Hardcore Weather
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html)
+--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html)



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-01-2008 05:26 AM

000
fxus64 klix 010945
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
445 am cdt mon sep 1 2008

.discussion... Gustav will be the main issue for the next 24
hours at least. The storm is expected to make landfall this
morning somewhere in the vicinity of timbalier island. With
precipitable water values between 2.5 and 3 inches...agree with
trends from hpc of 6 to 12 inches with isolated values near 20.
Worst of rain will be through tuesday morning...but will still see
some into at least wednesday. This forecast package will in
general be a continuation of previous package. 35
$$

.aviation...
Hurricane gustav will be the main impact to all of the terminals
through this evening then improving conditions are expected late
tonight and tuesday. Increasing winds and several bands of
convection with squalls will move across southeast louisiana and
southern mississippi throughout the day and into tonight with the
worst conditions expected at kmsy and kbtr. 22
&&

.marine...
Hurricane gustav will be the main impact through wednesday for the
coastal waters. Hurricane conditions will continue today but
diminish to tropical storm force from east to west late in the
afternoon and evening as gustav clears the coastal waters. The
remains of gustav will then stall over eastern texas...which will
keep winds and seas up through the middle of the week. 22
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-01-2008 05:33 AM

Hazardous weather outlook
national weather service new orleans la
502 am cdt mon sep 1 2008

gmz530-550-555-570-575-laz034>040-046>050-056>070-msz068>071-077-
080>082-021100-
lake pontchartrain and lake maurepas-
coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river
to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm-
coastal waters from pascagoula ms to the southwest pass of the
mississippi river out 20 nm-
coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river
to lower atchafalaya river la from 20 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from pascagoula ms to the southwest pass of the
mississippi river from 20 to 60 nm-pointe coupee-west feliciana-
east feliciana-st. Helena-tangipahoa-washington-st. Tammany-
iberville-west baton rouge-east baton rouge-ascension-livingston-
assumption-st. James-st. John the baptist-upper lafourche-
st. Charles-upper jefferson-orleans-upper plaquemines-
upper st. Bernard-upper terrebonne-lower terrebonne-
lower lafourche-lower jefferson-lower plaquemines-
lower st. Bernard-wilkinson-amite-pike-walthall-pearl river-
han****-harrison-jackson-
502 am cdt mon sep 1 2008

this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of coastal waters
of southeast louisiana and south mississippi...southeast
louisiana and southern mississippi.

.day one...today and tonight
hurricane gustav will make landfall in south central louisiana
this morning. Significant storm surge flooding is possible in low
lying areas...especially near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall. Hurricane force winds or wind gusts are expected
over much of the area today into tonight...with tropical storm
force gusts observed farther inland. There will be a threat of
isolated tornadoes...especially this morning. Widespread very
heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding today and tonight.
Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches will be possible today and
tonight. This may produce moderate to major flooding along some
rivers.

Tropical storm to hurricane force winds will continue across the
coastal waters for much of the day.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday
isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible on tuesday
with gustav...which is expected to be a tropical storm at that
time. In addition...heavy rainfall will still be possible...with
storm totals of near 20 inches possible in isolated locations.
Flooding of rivers may continue for several days.

The threat of widespread hazardous weather is low for thursday
through sunday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-01-2008 05:34 AM

Hurricane gustav local statement
national weather service new orleans la
505 am cdt mon sep 1 2008

...gustav nearing the louisiana coast...hurricane force winds
spreading over extreme southeast louisiana...

.at 400 am cdt...the center of hurricane gustav was located near
latitude 28.4 north...longitude 89.5 west or about 50 miles southeast
of grand isle.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph and this motion
is expected to continue prior to landfall. On the forecast
track...the center of gustav will reach the southeast louisiana
coast by midday today. A decrease in forward speed is expected to
occur by tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts.
Gustav is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale.

Gustav is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force
hurricane hunter aircraft is 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Laz038-040-049-050-056>070-msz080>082-011530-
/o.con.klix.hu.w.1007.000000t0000z-000000t0000z/
tangipahoa-st. Tammany-ascension-livingston-assumption-st. James-
st. John the baptist-upper lafourche-st. Charles-upper jefferson-
orleans-upper plaquemines-upper st. Bernard-upper terrebonne-
lower terrebonne-lower lafourche-lower jefferson-
lower plaquemines-lower st. Bernard-han****-harrison-jackson-
505 am cdt mon sep 1 2008

...hurricane warning remains in effect...

...areas affected...

This statement recommends actions to be taken by persons in...
Southeast louisiana and southern mississippi.

...watches/warnings...

A flash flood watch is in effect for southeast louisiana and
southern mississippi through tuesday evening.

A tornado watch is in effect.

...storm information...

At 400 am cdt...the center of hurricane gustav was located near
latitude 28.4 north...longitude 89.5 west or about 50 miles southeast
of grand isle.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph and this motion
is expected to continue prior to landfall. On the forecast
track...the center of gustav will reach the southeast louisiana
coast this morning. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest are expected to occur by tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts.
Gustav is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale.

Gustav is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force
hurricane hunter aircraft is 956 mb...28.23 inches.

...precautionary/preparedness actions...

All persons in the hurricane warning area should take necessary
actions to secure and protect life and property for the landfall
of gustav as a major category 3 hurricane along the southeast
louisiana coast.

Many parishes in southeast louisiana and counties in south
mississippi have evacuation orders in effect. Please follow the
advice of local government and emergency management officials.

In the area near landfall of the eye...extremely dangerous winds
will cause extensive damage...and all mobile homes will be
destroyed. Houses of poor to average construction may be severely
damaged or destroyed. Moderate to major damage could occur to
well constructed homes. Roof damage may occur to steel roofs at
industrial parks. Partial roof and exterior wall failures are
likely at low rise apartment buildings...especially those of poor
to average construction. Some windows in high rise office
buildings will be blown out. Airborne debris has the potential to
cause additional major damage...as well as injuries and a few
fatalities. Near total power loss is expected with numerous lines
and power poles knocked down. Numerous trees...especially small
to medium trees...will be downed...snapped or uprooted.

...storm surge and storm tide...

A potential storm surge of 10 to 14 feet will be possible near
and to the right of location of landfall. Life threatening
flooding is possible. Sections of west jefferson...and lower
lafourche hurricane protection levees could be over topped. Areas
outside of hurricane protection levees in southeast louisiana...
Will be severely inundated.

Many residences of average construction impacted by the storm
surge may be heavily damaged or destroyed. Numerous roads will be
swamped. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff by
storm surge flooding. Significant storm surge flooding will move
well inland especially along bays and bayous. A storm surge of
this magnitude could result in extensive flooding and poses a
significant threat to life and property.

...winds...

Tropical storm force winds will continue to spread inland
early this morning. Hurricane force winds are expected along
southeast louisiana coast by sunrise and gusts to hurricane
force along the mississippi coast. The hurricane conditions will
spread inland through the day and continue over portions of south
central louisiana tonight.

...inland flooding...

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6
to 12 inches over southeast louisiana and southern mississippi...
With isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible...over
the next few days. This may lead to moderate to major flooding on
some rivers.

...tornadoes...

Isolated tornadoes will be possible across southeast louisiana
and south mississippi today into tuesday.

...next update...

This statement will be updated around 730 am cdt.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-02-2008 08:53 AM

Quote:URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 635 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES [url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0880.html]TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 880[/url]. WATCH NUMBER 880 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
635 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING AND MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS EAST OF THE CENTER OF GUSTAV.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 16040.


[Image: ww0881_radar.gif]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-03-2008 07:10 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030934
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
434 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO.
STILL SEEING A SPIRAL BAND FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LET
TORNADO WATCH RIDE FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTY/PARISHES UNTIL
EXPIRATION AT 12Z...AS WE ARE STILL SEEING BOWING SEGMENTS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. CENTER OF CIRCULATION STILL DRIFTING INTO SW
ARKANSAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
WILL TRIM MUCH OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING...CLEARING TO
SOUTH AND EAST OF MCCOMB AND BATON ROUGE...BUT WILL EXTEND REMAINING
PORTION OF WATCH UNTIL NOON TO TAKE CARE OF REMAINING BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT...CONVECTION LIKELY TO SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE...AS AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2.25 INCHES. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL ALSO BE
TRIMMED...AS ONLY AREA CONTINUING TO SEE WATER LEVELS CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL IS THE SOUTH AND WEST SHORES OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS. WILL EXTEND THIS UNTIL NOON AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
CONTINUE ASSESSMENT OF FALLING WATER LEVELS.

AFTER TODAY...MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRIM POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV GET PULLED INTO MAIN
TROF OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
HANNA...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES VERY
WEAK. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...FEEL AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL AID IN ALLOWING CLEANUP ACTIVITIES FROM GUSTAV
TO MAKE CONSIDERABLE HEADWAY. A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
KMSY WEB SITE STATES COMMERCIAL POWER IS RESTORED AND COMMERCIAL
FLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON THURSDAY. ASOS OBSERVATION SHOULD
BE RESTORED TODAY ONCE CALIBRATION AND MAINTENANCE ARE COMPETED.
WEATHER AT REMAINING TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR CATEGORY CIGS THIS
MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BACK TO
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
AROUND KMCB AND KBTR TODAY. 22
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. TIDES WILL REMAIN AS
MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOME AREAS NEAR THE WEST SHORE OF
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS WITH THE LAKE MAUREPAS SHORELINE
AND SURROUNDING MARSHLANDS/SWAMPS ALSO IMPACTED BY FRESH WATER
FLOODING FROM THE AMITE/TICKFAW RIVER SYSTEMS. 22
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 73 88 71 / 50 50 40 30
BTR 86 74 88 74 / 80 50 40 30
MSY 86 76 87 76 / 50 40 40 30
GPT 85 74 86 73 / 40 40 40 30


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-03-2008 11:05 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
434 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO.
STILL SEEING A SPIRAL BAND FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LET
TORNADO WATCH RIDE FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTY/PARISHES UNTIL
EXPIRATION AT 12Z...AS WE ARE STILL SEEING BOWING SEGMENTS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. CENTER OF CIRCULATION STILL DRIFTING INTO SW
ARKANSAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
WILL TRIM MUCH OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING...CLEARING TO
SOUTH AND EAST OF MCCOMB AND BATON ROUGE...BUT WILL EXTEND REMAINING
PORTION OF WATCH UNTIL NOON TO TAKE CARE OF REMAINING BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT...CONVECTION LIKELY TO SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE...AS AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2.25 INCHES. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL ALSO BE
TRIMMED...AS ONLY AREA CONTINUING TO SEE WATER LEVELS CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL IS THE SOUTH AND WEST SHORES OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS. WILL EXTEND THIS UNTIL NOON AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
CONTINUE ASSESSMENT OF FALLING WATER LEVELS.

AFTER TODAY...MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRIM POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV GET PULLED INTO MAIN
TROF OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
HANNA...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES VERY
WEAK. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...FEEL AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL AID IN ALLOWING CLEANUP ACTIVITIES FROM GUSTAV
TO MAKE CONSIDERABLE HEADWAY. A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
KMSY WEB SITE STATES COMMERCIAL POWER IS RESTORED AND COMMERCIAL
FLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON THURSDAY. ASOS OBSERVATION SHOULD
BE RESTORED TODAY ONCE CALIBRATION AND MAINTENANCE ARE COMPETED.
WEATHER AT REMAINING TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR CATEGORY CIGS THIS
MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BACK TO
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
AROUND KMCB AND KBTR TODAY. 22
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. TIDES WILL REMAIN AS
MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOME AREAS NEAR THE WEST SHORE OF
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS WITH THE LAKE MAUREPAS SHORELINE
AND SURROUNDING MARSHLANDS/SWAMPS ALSO IMPACTED BY FRESH WATER
FLOODING FROM THE AMITE/TICKFAW RIVER SYSTEMS. 22
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-04-2008 06:48 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SOON
TO BE PICKED UP BY TROF MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OR AT LEAST LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR...DEMARCATED BY
LINE OF TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST WEST OF BTR...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S...WEST...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT BOUNDARY TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER ABOUT THE NEXT 36
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. LIX SOUNDING AND VWP SHOW LOWER 10K
FEET ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL...LOWERING CONSIDERABLY ANY TORNADO
RISK. UNTIL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...WILL NEED TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY SATURDAY...AIRMASS DRYING SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED DRY PERIOD FOR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE KBTR AND KMCB TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...UNTIL 10 OR 11Z.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND
COULD IMPACT KMSY AND POSSIBLY KGPT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS WELL. BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE OBSERVED AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND OR AFTER
00Z. 11
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE RATHER LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE DURING THE PERIOD. 11
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-05-2008 04:39 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR HBG-ASD-MSY-HUM LINE. THIS
BOUNDARY SEPARATES UPPER 70S DEW POINTS TO THE EAST FROM UPPER 60S
DEW POINTS TO THE WEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL PRETTY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS
WITH ALMOST AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE AROUND 06Z.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY DRYING OUT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2.25 ON THURSDAY EVENING FALL TO AROUND 1.5 BY SATURDAY.
CIRCULATION AROUND TS HANNA IS AIDING SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY TODAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR OUR LAND AREAS BY
TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THE NEXT NIGHT OR TWO SHOULD BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN
THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER MOSTLY DRY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AT
MIDWEEK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER
FLORIDA...TURNING HURRICANE IKE NORTHWARD NEAR OR EAST OF FLORIDA.

CURRENT GFS SOLUTION BRINGS A STRONG TROF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE FEATURE OF THIS FRONT WOULD BE
MUCH DRIER...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BISECTING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING MAY IMPACT KMSY THIS MORNING AND KGPT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AT
KBTR AND KMCB. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. SOME FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME STATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING MAY LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT
KMCB...KBTR AND KGPT. 11
&&

.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE RATHER LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE DURING
THE PERIOD. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-06-2008 12:08 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GULF SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE
CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...

THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. THUS...POPS SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SPREAD OUT WITH SOME PREDICTING A TURN
OVER FLORIDA WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENTUAL PATH
OF HURRICANE IKE REMAINS IN QUESTION.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-06-2008 10:00 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO REGION TODAY...
EVEN THOUGH THICK CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING LIMITED THE WARMING
OVER THE REGION. WHERE BREAKS DEVELOPED TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEW POINTS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY...AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERED INTO THE REGION IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HAMPER COOLING OVERNIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ARKANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA MAY IMPACT OUR
WEATHER BY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY STAYS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF OUR P/CWA. WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WEATHER
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PLEASANT IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...
MAIN PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HURRICANE IKE. IT`S TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT HURRICANE IKE WILL DO. HOWEVER..I HAVE
ACCEPTED THE GFS`S SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WITH REGARD
TO IT`S HANDLING OF IKE...THE MODEL SEEMS TO TAKE THE STORM MORE
TO THE RIGHT OF OUR REGION. THERE REMAINS A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. SO I FULLY
EXPECT THAT THERE MIGHT BE A TOTALLY DIFFERENT PICTURE FOR THIS
STORM BEFORE IT`S SAID AND DONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK 2500-4000 FEET ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE.
EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS AT MSY...BTR...GPT...POSSIBLY DOWN TO
IFR AT MCB TOMORROW MORNING. 25

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HURRICANE IKE AS IT EMERGES OFF CUBA
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
BEGIN RISING BY WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK WILL BRING IKE INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 25