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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-09-2008 05:38 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
327 Am Cdt Sat Aug 9 2008

.synopsis...
Drier Air Moving Into The Area As Shown On Water Vapor Loop.
Dewpoints Generally At Or Below 70 Degrees From Interstate 12
Northward...as Low As 62 At Mcb At 07z. Skies Are Generally Clear
With One Lonely Shower At The Southeast Edge Of The Coastal
Waters.
&&

.short Term...
Going To Be Difficult To Even Scare Up A Shower This Afternoon As
Forecast Soundings Show Precipitable Water Values Down Around 1.2
On Both Models. Going With A Dry Forecast Through 18z Sunday...as
Any Moisture Return Will Be At High Levels In The Sounding. After
That...things Get A Little More Murky. Gfs Considerably Quicker On
Moisture Return With Precipitable Waters Getting Above 1.8 As
Early As Sunday Afternoon...with Nam Soundings Not Showing That
Much Moisture Till Midday On Monday. Considering That Convection
Is Firing In The Northwest Flow Over The Western Plains...will
Tend Slightly Toward The Gfs Solution...and Carry Scattered Pops
For Sunday Afternoon. By Monday...both Models Show Precipitable
Water Values In Excess Of 2 Inches...and Current Pops Look Good.

Mav Temps Appear Too Cool On Highs For The Next Two Days...and
Have Gone Near Or Above The Met Guidance. Monday Temps Should Be
Near Normal. 35
&&

.long Term...
No Significant Changes Made To Extended Forecast At This Time. 35
&&

.aviation...
Stalled Front...mostly Clear Skies...and Calm To Very Light Winds
Are All Allowing Patchy Light Fog To Form. This Will Affect The
Kbtr And Kgpt Tafs Early This Morning With Mvfr Vsbys Expected.
The Airmass Will Remain Quite Dry Today And Any Light Fog Will
Burn Off Quickly Giving Way To Mostly Clear Vfr Conditions The
Remainder Of The Day. Any Few To Scattered Cumulus Clouds This
Afternoon Will Have Bases Of 4000-5000 Feet And No Shra/tsra Is
Expected At The Taf Sites. Moisture Return May Bring A Bit More
Light Fog Tonight...and Lower Cloud Bases And Isolated Shra/tsra
On Sunday Afternoon. 22
&&


.marine...
Cooler Drier Air Associated With Stalled Front Is Mostly North Of
The Marine Area...so Winds Remain Mostly Light Early This Morning.
Frontal Boundary Is Expected To Become Diffuse This Afternoon And
Southerly Flow Will Return Late Today Through Wednesday. No Flags
Are Expected Through The Period. 22
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-10-2008 06:55 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
325 Am Cdt Sun Aug 10 2008

.synopsis...
Surface High Pressure Just North Of Lake Superior With A Ridge
Axis Down The Length Of The Mississippi River. Surface Low Over
The Texas Panhandle This Morning. Two Separate Convective
Systems...one Over Southeast Colorado...the Other Over Northwest
Arkansas And Northeast Oklahoma. 2 Am Conditions Across The Area
Showed Dew Points A Little Below Normal For Early August...with
Most Temperatures In The 70s. 00z Lix Sounding Showed Precipitable
Water Values Around 1.3...and Lch Considerably More Moist At 1.83.
&&

.short Term...
Moisture Will Gradually Return From The North And West
Today...priming The Pump For The Next Few Days. As We Are In Weak
Northwesterly Flow...impulses Moving Down The Front Have The
Ability To Initiate Convection During The Afternoon Hours. Due To
Moisture Taking Most Of The Day To Fill The Column...will Only
Have Low Chance Pops This Afternoon. As We Get Into Monday And
Tuesday...precipitable Water Values In Excess Of 2 Inches Will Be
Common Across The Area. Expect Convection To Be Fairly Widespread
During The Afternoon Hours Monday And Tuesday With Pops In The 50
To 70 Percent Range...with North And East Sections Of The Cwa Most
Favored. Mean 850-300 Mb Wind Takes This Morning`s Mcs Over
Arkansas Toward Jan And Hbg. Future Systems Will Be A Little
Further South And West. Considering The Moisture Content Of The
Airmass...and The Areal Coverage Of Precipitation...will Continue
The Mention Of Locally Heavy Rainfall. Heavy Rain Has Not Been
Widespread The Last Couple Of Weeks...so Most Areas Should Be Able
To Tolerate A Few Inches Of Rain. This Will Need To Be Monitored
Over The Next 48 Hours However.

High Temperatures Should Be Slightly Above Normal Today...then A
Little Below Normal Due To Clouds And Precip Monday And Tuesday. 35
&&

.long Term...
As Moisture Axis Sinks Slowly Into The Gulf By Wednesday...chances
For Precipitation Will Be Near To Slightly Below Normal For Those
Days. Gfs And Ecmwf Are In Fair Agreement About Bringing A
Significant Impulse Through The Eastern U.s. Upper Trof On
Saturday. This Would Bring Higher Chances For Precipitation...and
Somewhat Below Normal Temperatures. Will Trend Toward The Mex
Numbers As We Get Out Toward Days 6 And 7...but If Strength Of
Trof Verifies...those Numbers Could Get Dropped A Littlle More In
The Next Few Days. 35
&&

.aviation...
Mostly Vfr Weather Will Prevail Today And Tonight. The Exception
Will Be Kmcb Where Some Brief Mvfr Vsbys Are Possible Early This
Morning...and Again After 06z Tonight. Mainly Isolated Shra/tsra Is
Expected This Afternoon...but Scattered Coverage Is Possible Around
Kmcb And Kbtr If An Outflow Boundary Or Mesoscale Vorticity Center
Moves Into The Area This Afternoon. Shra/tsra And Associated
Mvfr/ifr Category Chances Will Increase Tonight Into Monday As
Moisture Increases And Shortwaves Move Down From The Northwest. 22
&&

.marine...
Remnants Of Weak Front Linger Near The Tidal Lakes And The
Mississippi Coast...but The Wind Flow Has Become Uniform Southwest
Across The Marine Area...and Southwest Winds Are Likely To Continue
Most Of The Next Five Days. Am Confident Most Winds Today Will Be
Around 10 Knots Or Less...but Speeds Are Likely To Increase To The
10 To 15 Knots Range Tonight Through Monday Evening. Tuesday Through
Early Wednesday...several Consecutive Model Runs From The Gfs And
Ecmwf Show A Surface Low Pressure Area Moving Across The Lower
Mississippi Valley And Eastward Across Alabama And Georgia Tuesday
Through Wednesday Morning. Confidence Is Now Much Higher That
Sustained Winds Will Increase To 15 To 20 Knots During That Time
Frame. 22
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-11-2008 06:25 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 110813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BAND OF CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOBILE NORTHWESTWARD TO
NATCHEZ AND TEXARKANA AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW MORE OF A
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO THE EAST OF IT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM PROBLEM ISN`T SO MUCH WHETHER IT IS GOING TO RAIN...JUST
WHERE AND HOW MUCH. NAM INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE FIELD LOCALLY
MUCH BETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS DEALING WITH FEEDBACK
ISSUES THAT WILL AFFECT LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE DOWN THE BOUNDARY TODAY...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES NORTHEAST
HALF. WILL TRIM 20 PERCENT FROM DAYTIME POPS FOR SOMEWHAT LESS
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...THEN BACK TO THE
HIGHER POPS AGAIN TUESDAY.

NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS PUSHING
BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT OUT INTO THE GULF FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS AND CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE WELL OVER 2 INCHES
FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD POSE A PROBLEM.
FF GUIDANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH WHERE MOST AREAS COULD HANDLE A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS THAT COULD GET A
REPEAT EVENT. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT
THREAT CERTAINLY EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO WITH A FLOOD
WATCH TODAY...BUT ONE COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF
BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY FOR MORE THAN 1 PRECIP EVENT.

WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...AND MANY PLACES MAY NOT SEE 90 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
WITH BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...POPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY CONSISTENTLY. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE KMCB...KBTR AND KGPT TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KMSY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TOWARD OR AFTER DAYBREAK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT EACH TAF SITE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
11
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. 11
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-12-2008 05:47 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
342 Am Cdt Tue Aug 12 2008

.synopsis...
Surface Boundary From Yesterday Has Moved North Of The Area...generally
Along Interstate 20. Upper Impulse Over Northeast Texas Has Triggered
A Large Area Of Convection Across Southern Arkansas...northwest
Louisiana And Northeast Texas. This Activity Is Moving East...and
The Bulk Of It Will Stay Well North Of Our Area Through 12z. No
Significant Precipitation Echoes Over The Area At 08z...and
Temperatures And Dewpoints Both In The 70s Areawide.
&&

.short Term...
Largest Portion Of The Forecast Problem This Morning Will Occur During
The First 36 Hours Of The Forecast. All Models Track The Northeast
Texas Impulse And Associated Surface Low Due Eastward...generally
Remaining Along Interstate 20...with Much Of The Heavy Precip
Along And North Of The Low Track.

While The Low Tracks To Our North...that Doesn`t Let Us Out Of The
Woods. Precipitable Water Values Remain Well Above 2 Inches This
Morning...and Low Level...between 925 And 800 Mb...winds Increase
During The Day. Winds Of 40 To 50 Knots At This Level Are Somewhat
Unseasonable For Mid August On The Gulf Coast...without Being
Associated With A Tropical System. Shear From These Stronger Winds
Certainly Provides The Possibility For A Few Severe Storms Late
This Afternoon And Evening If Convection Can Develop Some Clean
Inflow. Spc Has About Northern 2/3 Of Area Outlooked For Slight
Risk With 15 Percent Wind Probs In Slight Risk Area...and About 5
Percent Tornado Probs For Our Southwest Mississippi Counties.

Excessive Rain Yesterday Was Very Isolated. Forecast Rain Amounts
For Today And Tonight Will Generally Be Below 2 Inches...so No
Organized Flooding Expected In Our Area. With High Precipitable
Water Values...isolated Heavy Rain Possible...but Will Not Carry
In Zones Or Issue Watch. Will Continue With Pops From Previous
Forecast For The First Two Periods.

With Passage Of Shortwave...boundary Will Shift South Of The Area
Into The Gulf Late Tonight Into Wednesday. Most Precipitation
Occurring During The Daytime Hours On Wednesday Should Be In The
Morning. Airmass Dries Out...especially Above The Surface
Wednesday Afternoon Through Thursday...with Much Lower Pops.

Temperatures Will Be Below Normal Today Due To Clouds And Precip.
Sunshine Wednesday May Allow Temps To Recover To Near Normal By Late
Afternoon...with Above Normal Temperatures On Tap For Thursday. 35
&&

.long Term...
Models Still Struggling With The Weekend Scenario Of An Upper Low
Over The Midwest...on Timing...strength And Location. Until Some
Agreement Is Seen In The Models...will Take The Conservative
Approach And Make No Major Changes To Going Forecast. 35
&&

.aviation...
While The Radar Is Fairly Quiet Early This Morning...numerous
Showers And Thunderstorms Are Expected Again Today Across Southeast
Louisiana And South Mississippi And Will Likely Impact Each Taf Site
At Some Point During The Course Of The Day. The Most Likely Times
Will Be After Daybreak And Into The Afternoon Hours. Occasional Mvfr
Ceilings Are Expected Today With Ifr To Lifr Ceilings At Kmcb Early
This Morning. 11
&&

.marine...
A Small Craft Advisory Will Remain In Effect For The Gulf Coastal
Waters Today Through Wednesday Morning As Southwest Flow Increases
To Around 20 Knots And Seas Build To 5 To 7 Feet As An Area Of Low
Pressure Moves East Across The Lower Mississippi Valley. A Headline
For Small Craft To Exercise Caution Will Be Added To The Lake
Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas Forecast For Today. Winds Will Begin
To Diminish Wednesday Afternoon. High Pressure Will Prevail Across
The Coastal Waters For The End Of The Week. 11
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-12-2008 01:06 PM

Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans La
104 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 12 2008
The National Weather Service In New Orleans Has Issued A
* Tornado Warning For...
East Feliciana Parish In Southeast Louisiana...
This Includes The Cities Of...jackson...clinton...
Southeastern West Feliciana Parish In Southeast Louisiana...
* Until 130 Pm Cdt
* At 102 Pm Cdt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A
Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing A Tornado Near Jackson...
Moving Northeast At 41 Mph.
* The Tornado Will Be Near...
Clinton By 120 Pm Cdt...
In


New Orleans Local Weather thread - 10schic - 08-12-2008 07:24 PM

It doesn't feel much like a cold front. More like a more humid front coming through.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 08-12-2008 07:33 PM

10schic Wrote:It doesn't feel much like a cold front. More like a more humid front coming through.

Isn't that the truth! You can drown just breathing outside right now.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-13-2008 04:15 AM

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA357 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008LAZ061>064-131000-ORLEANS-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...METAIRIE...NEW ORLEANS357 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008.NOW...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NEWORLEANS METRO AREA THROUGH 5 AM CDT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WINDGUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY SOMEOF THE THUNDERSTORMS


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-14-2008 12:31 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL LOUISIANA AND THE GULF WATERS...IT SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
KICK IN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA AND THUS SHOWS HIGHER
POPS...LOW END CHANCE...FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF THE NAM FORECAST PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW SHOULD
BE WELL-ESTABLISHED BY THE WEEKEND AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO FIRE OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INCLUDED 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT KMCB...KGPT
AND POSSIBLY KBTR UNTIL AROUND 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
EACH TAF SITE TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
KMCB...KGPT...AND KBTR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WANING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
GENERAL...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY FLAT SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-15-2008 12:08 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN NICE AND QUIET ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY ARE READING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. ALL
OF THIS UNUSUAL MID AUGUST WEATHER IS COMPLIMENTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT STALLED IN THE GULF JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO THE
FORECAST WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFSHORE FOR TONIGHT.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT FOR THE INLAND AREAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP IN TO
THE UPPER 60 AND LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TOMORROW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A CANADIAN LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH SITS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THERE IS NOT ANY
REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISM BESIDES DAYTIME HEATING SO WILL ONLY CARRY
30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH MOST CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING
THE PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS ON SATURDAY TO 60 PERCENT AS
MODELS SHOW THIS WOULD BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS. ON A SIDE
NOTE...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AS IT HAS A COUPLE OF RAINFALL BULLSEYES MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL DISCOUNT THESE FOR NOW.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BELOW AUGUST NORMALS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON BOTH DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS STATIONARY OVER COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON THE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO OUR EAST...SO POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE LOWERED.
WILL NOT BITE OFF ON JUST ONE MODEL RUN SO WILL KEEP 20 AND 30
PERCENT POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ANY CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HAVE
HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TO RUN THROUGH 11
PM TONIGHT WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOMORROW...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.