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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-14-2008 06:55 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
336 Am Cdt Mon Jul 14 2008

.short Term...

A Strong Short Wave Trough Currently Digging Through The Midwest
And Into The Northeast Will Continue To Drive A Frontal Boundary
Into The Region Today. The Front Is Currently Extended Across
Central Louisiana And Central Mississippi Early This Morning...and
Should Slowly Progress Southward Across The Cwa Throughout The
Day. By This Evening...it Appears The Frontal Boundary Should Be
Somewhere Near The Southeast Louisiana Coast. In Advance Of And
Along The Frontal Boundary...decent Low Level Lift...combined With
Some Positive Vorticity Advection Associated With The Upper Level
Trough Axis Should Allow For Scattered Convection To Develop
Throughout The Day. Have Went With Continued Chance Pops For The
Entire Cwa Throughout The Day. Temperatures Will Be A Bit Cooler
Today As Well...due To The Expected Cloud Cover And Rainfall In
The Area. Going Into Tonight...the Front Will Continue To Sweep
Southward Through The Coastal Waters. Over Inland Areas Of The
Cwa...strong Upper Level Ridging In The Wake Of The Trough Axis
Will Begin To Build In. Decent Subsidence And Dry Air Advection In
The Middle And Upper Levels Associated With This Ridge Will Lead
To Rapidly Clearing Skies Across Northern And Eastern Zones
Tonight.

Going Into Tuesday...the Upper Level Ridge Will Be In Full Control
Of The Region...with Only A Slight Chance Of Convection Possible
Near The Washed Out Frontal Boundary Over The Coastal Waters. By
Wednesday...the Ridge Will Have Completely Washed The
Region...with A Very Dry And Warm Airmass Building In.
Temperatures Should Rebound Back To Well Above Normal Levels By
Wednesday...as Strong Solar Insolation And Subsidence Work
Together To Heat Things Up.

.long Term...

A Warm And Dry Airmass Will Remain In Control Of The Region
Through Friday...as Upper Level Ridging Centered Over The
Southeast And Eastern Gulf Remains In Place. There May Be Enough
Mid-level Moisture Advection On Friday To Slightly Weaken The Cap
Aloft And Allow For An Isolated Diurnally Forced Thunderstorm.
With This In Mind...have Included Slight Chance Pops For Friday.
This Same Pattern Should Persist Into Saturday...as Moisture
Advection Increases Across The Region In The Mid Levels. This
Moisture Advection Will Be Fed By A Tropical Wave That Should
Begin To Pull Through The Gulf Of Mexico Late Friday Into
Saturday. The Wave Should Pull Into The Western Gulf By
Sunday. By This Time...the Region Will Have Ample Tropical
Moisture In Place Throughout The Atmospheric Column To Support
Convective Development. Have Went With Continued Slight Chance
Pops Sunday Into Monday...but Higher Pops May Be Possible. Given
The Overall Uncertainty On The Timing Of The Inverted Trough
Through The Gulf...have Held Off On Bumping Pops For The Weekend.
However...temperatures Should Cool Back To Near Normal Over The
Weekend Due Increased Cloud Cover And Higher Atmospheric Moisture
Content.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 07-14-2008 07:26 AM

We have a cold front blowing across us on July 14. Does that seem odd to anyone else?


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-15-2008 05:27 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
428 Am Cdt Tue Jul 15 2008

.short Term...
Front Has Moved As Far South As The South Shore This Morning.
Locating It Is Easier By Dew Pt Temps Since The Pressure Field Is
Weak With The Frontal Trough. Dry Air On The Back Side Of The
Front Has Entered The Area And Will Effectively Cut Pop Numbers
Way Back. Current Fcast Shows This And So No Changes Are Needed To
The Short Term. Will Be Adjusting The Mid To Extended For Some
Differences That The Models Are Picking Up On But May Be Too Weak
With.

Two Things Will Begin To Happen Over The Next Several Days. One Is
An Upper Low Will Cut Off From The Main Northern Jet And Sink
Slowly Over The Gulf Then Move Into The Western Gulf By The End Of
The Week. As We Fall To The Ne Side Of The Upper Low Slightly
Better Rain Chances Will Show Up. And For Now Have Only Raised Pop
Numbers To 20% For Thu And Fri. The Reason For Not Bringing Them
Higher Is A Strong Tropical Wave Over The Carribean That Will
Continue Its Journey Toward The Area At Least Bringing The Nortern
Portion Of The Easterly Trough Into The Area By The Weekend.
Before The Trough Axis Reaches Us A Strongly Subsident Atmos Ahead
Of The Trough Will Move Into The North Central Gulf And Should
Keep Numbers Down. The Sounding Profile Between Fri And Sat Should
Be Quite Significant If Things Play Out As Fcasted. We Should Move
From A Relatively Dry Profile To A Deeply Moist One Bringing A
Good Bit Of Acitivity To The Area Over The Weekend.


.long Term...
Did Not Have To Change Mush To The Extended 6 And 7 Day. Will Have
To Wait To See What Is Going To Happen With The Next Strong
Easterly Wave Well Out Over The Atlantic.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dhs62 - 07-15-2008 06:47 AM

Rollie, leaving NOLA area on Friday for Gulf Shores, Al. Spending a week and was wondering what is your best guess on the weather while we are there.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-16-2008 06:18 AM

Here's the 7-day forecast NWS page for Gulf Shores.

NOLA area forecast:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...
NO REAL CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE NEEDED. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WOUND UP OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE SOME EYES STAY PEELED TO THE EXTREME EAST GULF. THIS WEAK
SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR US AS WE CONTINUE TO BAKE IN A
STRONGLY SUPPRESSIVE DRY AIR REGIME. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ONCE OVER THE GULF BRINING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO US BY
THU. ATTM WE ARE STILL GOING TO ADVERTISE 20% BUT THIS MAY
INCREASE IF PW VALUES INCREASE SOMEWHAT. FRI AND SAT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY AND SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING POP NUMBERS UP AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES AS WE CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL POPS AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dhs62 - 07-16-2008 06:51 AM

Tks Mac


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-17-2008 01:50 AM

Air Quality Alert

LAZ040-058-060>064-171445-ST. TAMMANY-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-944 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008...OZONE ACTION DAY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE LOUISIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IS FORECASTING AOZONE ACTION DAY FOR ORLEANS...JEFFERSON...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST TAMMANY...AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES.WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF OZONE. THEAIR QUALITY INDEX INDICATES THAT OZONE WILL BE AT THE ORANGE LEVEL...WHICH IS UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. INCREASING OZONE LEVELS MAYCAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVE CHILDRENAND ADULTS...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASES SUCHAS ASTHMA...SHOULD AVOID PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION.PLEASE TAKE WHATEVER VOLUNTARY STEPS YOU CAN TO REDUCE EMISSIONSTHAT CONTRIBUTE TO OZONE FORMATION. DRIVE LESS AND MAKE SURE YOURAUTOMOBILE IS IN GOOD WORKING CONDITION. MAKE SURE YOUR GAS CAP ISTIGHT. WAIT UNTIL AFTER 6 PM TO REFUEL YOUR VEHICLE AND USE GASPOWERED LAWN EQUIPMENT. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT AIR QUALITYAND WHAT YOU CAN DO TO HELP PREVENT OZONE FORMATION IS AVAILABLE ATTHE D E Q WEBSITE http://WWW.DEQ.LOUISIANA.GOV OR BY CALLING2 2 5 2 1 9 3 4 8 9 ON WEEKDAYS


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-17-2008 06:09 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
333 Am Cdt Thu Jul 17 2008

.synopsis...
Surface High Over Ohio River Valley Will Sink Slowly Southward. At
Upper Levels...we Are In An Area Of Weakness Between Upper Ridges
Over Arizona And The Bahamas. A Solitary Shower Is Dissipating Ne
Of Mccomb. Current Temperatures Generally In The 70s. Dewpoints
Are Mainly In The 60s North Of Interstate 12 And In The Lower To
Middle 70s Elsewhere Under A Light And Variable Wind Regime. 00z
Lix Sounding Appears To Have Been A Proximity Sounding For A
Thunderstorm Near Gulfport At Launch Time...and May Not Be
Representative Of Regional Conditions.
&&

.short Term...
High Pressure Continues To Be The Controlling Factor In The Short
Term Forecast. Main Difference In Forecast Output Appears To Be
Related To Moisture Availability. Met Guidance Holds Dewpoints Too
High...especially Across Northern Sections Of The Area...where
Dewpoint Readings Are About 8f Cooler Than Met Guidance. Mid
Level Temperatures Are Definitely Warming With 500 Mb Temps
Forecast Near -4c At Lix For The Next 2 Afternoons...capping Off
The Airmass In Most Areas. Slight Cooling On Saturday.

This Forecast Will Trend Toward The Gfs Solution In The Short
Range. This Will Keep A Dry Forecast For Today And Friday...with
Only Isolated Pops On Saturday Afternoon. Land-sea Interactions
May Allow A Couple Of Thunderstorms To Develop Today...but
Anticipate Well Less Than 20 Percent Areal Coverage.

Temperatures...have Noted Guidance Has A Definite Cool Bias Over
The Last Week In The First Period...especially At Mccomb...which
Has Been 1 Category Too Cool Outside Of Rain Areas. Will Go Near
Or Above Max Temperature Guidance...except Near Guidance At
Gpt...which May Be Influenced By Sea Breezes At Mid-afternoon Each
Day. Saturday Should Be The Least Hot Of The Next 3 Days. 35
&&

.long Term...
No Significant Changes To The Long Term Portion Of The Forecast.
Previous Forecast Of Slightly Below Normal Precipitation Chances
And Slightly Above Normal Temperatures Looks Good.

Interestingly...at The End Of The Forecast Period...the Ecmwf And
Gfs Significantly Diverge On Their Solutions Over Our Area. Will
Continue To Monitor Trends. Ecmwf Solution On 00z Run Would Lead
To A Rather Hot Final Weekend In July. 35
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-18-2008 05:52 AM

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service New Orleans La
346 Am Cdt Fri Jul 18 2008

.synopsis...
Weak Upper Low Near Houston Early This Morning...with Surface High
Still Over The Appalachians. Mid And High Level Cloudiness Still
Covering West Half Of Area...but This Cloud Layer Appears To Be
Rather Thin. Precipitation Is Limited To Isolated Echoes Over The
Coastal Waters West Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River.

Temperatures Generally In The 70s With Dewpoints Upper 60s To Mid
70s Under A Light Wind Regime.
&&

.short Term...
Disposition Of Current Cloud Cover Will Be The Determining Factor
In Todays Forecast. Weak Upper Low Will Continue To Move Into
Texas And Will Not Be A Direct Factor In Our Weather.

Model Forecast Soundings Show Mid Level Moisture Mixing Out This
Morning. Mid Level Temperatures Will Warm A Couple Of Degrees To
Around -4c. This May Serve To Cap The Airmass...but It Will Be A
Close Call. Similar Conditions Expected Saturday. Little Doubt
That Some Convection Will Develop...somewhere In The Cwa. Will
Areal Coverage Be Greater Than 20 Percent...that Is The Question.
Path Of Least Regret...will Go With 20 Pops For Today And Saturday.

Starting To See Indications That Sunday May Actually Be The Dry
Day As Upper High Forecast To Settle Over The Area On Both Gfs And
Nam. Will Only Carry 10 Pops On Sunday.

With Warming Of Lower And Mid Layers...any Areas With Nearly Full
Sunshine Will Easily Reach The Mid 90s Each Day. 35
&&

.long Term...
Little Change In The Extended Portion Of The Forecast As Upper
Ridging Still The Dominant Feature. Land-sea Interactions Will
Provide Potential For Diurnal Convection Each Day. Temperature
Trends To Remain Near To Above Normal For Late July. 35
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-19-2008 05:17 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
327 Am Cdt Sat Jul 19 2008

.synopsis...
Surface High Pressure Still Lodged Over The Appalachians This
Morning...with Td 3 Just Off The South Carolina Coast. At Upper
Levels...bermuda High And 4 Corners High Still In Place. Isolated
Showers Offshore...appear To Be Diminishing As They Reach Land.
24 Hour Temperature And Dewpoint Changes Are Very Small Across The
Area. One Patch Of Mid Level Cloud Cover Between Mccomb And
Natchez Also Appears To Be Diminishing.
&&

.short Term...
Little Change From Previous Thinking On Forecast Through Monday. Airmass
Will Remain Supportive Of Isolated Convection Each Afternoon. While
20 Percent Areal Coverage Is Likely Overstating Things...will Keep
Previous Trends Going.

Temperatures Will Remain A Few Degrees Above Normal In Areas That
Do Not See Convective Development. Of The Three Days...sunday
Likely To Be The Warmest...but Only By A Degree Or Two. 35
&&

.long Term...
Wild Card In The Extended Will Be The Tropical Wave Currently
Moving Across The Caribbean. Gfs And Ecmwf Track This Feature
Across The Yucatan Peninsula...then Northwestward Toward Northern
Mexico. Northern Stream Trof Will Push A Cold Front Through The
Tennessee Valley Toward The Area. Not Clear Yet Whether There Will
Be Any Interaction At All Between The Two Systems.

Gfs Qpf Progs Appear To Be Overdone Across Our Area Based On
Their Forecast Path Of The Tropical Wave. Mex Guidance Would
Indicate High Chance To Likely Pops For Much Of The Work Week.
Will Only Go With About 40 Pops Until The Correct Tropical Wave
Scenario Becomes A Little More Evident...which Also Fits The Gfs
Ensemble Mean A Little Better Than The Operational Run. Unless Or
Until Significant Precipitation Occurs Across The Area...temps
Should Average Slightly Above Normal. 35
&&