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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-25-2008 06:56 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
424 Am Cdt Fri Apr 25 2008

.short Term...
Some Changes Coming. We Will See Quite A Bit Of Moistening Today.
As A Weak Short Wave Moves Out Of Tx Today...it Will Make Good Use
Of A Sfc Convengent Boundary Extending From Western La Down
Through Vermilion Parish And Well Out In To The Gulf. These Two
Will Combine To Keep Some Activity Going Over The Western And Nw
Most Counties/parishes. Concerning Severe Ts Potential
Today...numbers Don`t Support Anything Exceptional. Hail Size
Would Be Small(up To 3/4")...microburst Wind Speeds Would Be In
The 40 To 50 Knot Range. But The Cold Mid Level Air Will Provide
Some Nice Light Shows With Any Ts Activity. Will Word For Strong
Ts Potential In Hwo For Today As Best Severe Potential Will Be Nw
Of The Area.

The Cold Front That Is Moving Toward Us Will Slow And Stall Just
North Of The Area. As Small Disturbances Move Over This
Boundary...plenty Of Ts Will Develop Along The Front And Move Ne
While Developing Toward The Nw. This Sets The Total Motion
Northward At Roughly 10 Knots. What These Ts Will Provide Is
Outflow Boundaries On Saturday Which Will Move South In A Very
Moist Environment. These Outflows Will Collide With A Cbrz
Boundary That Will Make It Inland To About The New Orleans Metro
Area. When These Collide It Should Make For Several Heavy Rain
Areas. Looks As If A Good Chunk Of Real Estate Should Get A Ts Or
Two During The Day Sat.

The Real Fireworks Will Start Sun As A Much Stronger Cold Front
Moves Into The Area. Severity With The Sun System Is Looking More
And More Probable. A Strong Jet Max Moves Out Of The Base Of The
Upper Trough And A Strong Split Flow Sets Up Right Over The Area
During The Afternoon And Evening. We Will Fall Under The Rr Quad
Of The Opening Jet Core Which Will Lend Some Strong Support To
Almost Every Ts That Develops.


.long Term...
Cool Dry Weather Will Begin The Work Week As A Strong Canadian
Colf Front Drives Well Past The Region. We Fall Close To Record
Cool Temps Mon-tue. The Remainder Of The Week Should Be Dry With A
Warming Trend.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 04-25-2008 07:15 AM

southernbelle Wrote:Wind, I caught a nice 3 1/2 pound speck for you.

T-man, perfect breeze, it keeps the knats away.

In the lake?? We used to go right off the mouth of Bayou Lacombe, when we kept our boat at home, at a little small rig sticking up out of the water (I guess it's still there?) We always caught trout, sometimes redfish.
Glad you had a good time!


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-25-2008 10:07 AM

Lake Ponchatrian fishing report Sounds like the trout are congregating on the Northshore. Cool


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-27-2008 07:19 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
351 Am Cdt Sun Apr 27 2008

.short Term...

Early This Morning A Frontal Boundary Stretched From The Mid-
Atlantic States Through Central Mississippi/louisiana Into Central
Texas. Aloft There Was A Trough Extending From Ontario Into
The Central Plains. Extensive Rainfall Was Occurring Around Coastal
Sections Of Extreme Southeast Louisiana. The Most Recent Laps
Sounding Showed The Precip Water To Be At 1.6 Inches With Little
Helicity. The Showers Are Expected To Continue Across Extreme
Southeast Louisiana Into Coastal Mississippi...and The Offshore
Waters...this Morning. The Upper Trough Should Drop Into The
Southern Plains States Today And Help To Push The Cold Front
Through Most Of Southeast Louisiana And South Mississippi This
Evening. Although The Best Dynamics Will Remain To The West And
North Of Our Area Today...limiting Severe Potential...additional
Rainfall Could Cause Problems In Parts Of Metro New Orleans That
Flooded Yesterday. Rainfall Amounts Today Of 1 To 2 Inches Are
Possible Across The Area...with Locally Higher Amounts. Breezy
Conditions Are Expected Sunday Night With The Frontal Passage.
High Pressure And Fair Weather Will Dominate The Area Later On
Monday Through Midweek.

.long Term...

The High Pressure Will Move To The East By Thursday And Friday As
A Low Pressure System Develops Over The Plains States. This System
Is Expected To Push Into The Great Lakes On Saturday...dragging A
Cold Front Through The Lower Mississippi Valley.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-27-2008 08:51 AM

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA431 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2008LAZ059>070-271730-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW​ ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY431 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2008...MORE RAIN EXPECTED IN METRO NEW ORLEANS TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA ANDMISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO PUSH TO THESOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERNPLAINS STATES TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSTHIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREADTHIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHESTHE AREA. THIS...COUPLED WITH STORMS THAT REDEVELOP AND MOVEACROSS THE SAME AREAS...COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. 1 TO2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE GREATERNEW ORLEANS AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-29-2008 06:58 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
330 Am Cdt Tue Apr 29 2008

.discussion...

Early This Morning A Reinforcing Cold Front Was Pushing South
Across Mississippi And North Louisiana. Behind This Front Temps
Will Be Fairly Cool...dropping To Around 50f In Many Areas
Wednesday Morning. High Pressure Behind The Front Will Push
Southeastward Toward Georgia And Florida On Wednesday. The Next
System Will Develop Over The Central Plains States Thursday And
Friday. On Friday The Stacked System Will Begin To Push Toward The
Upper Mississippi Valley As The Associated Cold Front Pushes Into
Northern Louisiana And Mississippi. The Front Should Push Into
The Coastal Waters By Saturday Afternoon. The Gfs Shows The System
To Be A Little Farther To The North Than The Ecmwf...but Both
Systems Push The Front Through Our Pcwa On Saturday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-30-2008 06:59 AM

530 Am Cdt Wed Apr 30 2008

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Portions Of The Gulf Of
Mexico...southeastern Louisiana...and Southern Mississippi.

.day One...today And Tonight

High River Flows And Flooding Will Continue Along The Mississippi
River From Red River Landing To New Orleans...intracoastal
Waterway At Bayou Sorrel Lock...and Along The Lower Atchafalaya River
Near Morgan City. Please Refer To The Latest Flood Warnings And
Statements For Updated Information.

.days Two Through Seven...thursday Through Tuesday

Thunderstorms...
Scattered Thunderstorms Are Expected With The Next Frontal System
Friday Into Early Saturday. There Is A Chance Of Strong To Severe
Thunderstorms And Heavy Rain Mainly On Friday And Friday Night.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-02-2008 06:06 AM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans La
533 Am Cdt Fri May 2 2008

Gmz530-550-555-570-575-laz034>040-046>050-056>070-msz068>071-077-
080>082-021700-
Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas-
Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River
To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Pascagoula Ms To The Southwest Pass Of The
Mississippi River Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River
To Lower Atchafalaya River La From 20 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Pascagoula Ms To The Southwest Pass Of The
Mississippi River From 20 To 60 Nm-pointe Coupee-west Feliciana-
East Feliciana-st. Helena-tangipahoa-washington-st. Tammany-
Iberville-west Baton Rouge-east Baton Rouge-ascension-livingston-
Assumption-st. James-st. John The Baptist-upper Lafourche-
St. Charles-upper Jefferson-orleans-upper Plaquemines-
Upper St. Bernard-upper Terrebonne-lower Terrebonne-
Lower Lafourche-lower Jefferson-lower Plaquemines-
Lower St. Bernard-wilkinson-amite-pike-walthall-pearl River-
Han****-harrison-jackson-
533 Am Cdt Fri May 2 2008

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Portions Of Gulf Of
Mexico...southeast Louisiana And Southern Mississippi.

.day One...today And Tonight

Thunderstorms...
There Is A Slight Chance Of Severe Thunderstorms Today Mainly In
Southwest Mississippi And East-central Louisiana. The Primary
Threats Will Be Large Hail And Damaging Winds. Isolated Weak
Tornadoes Are Possible As Well As Frequent Lightning And Heavy
Rainfall. For Southeast Louisiana And Coastal Mississippi...
Scattered Moderate To Strong Intensity Thunderstorms Are Expected
Today But Will Likely Remain Below Severe Levels. Wind Gusts To 50
Mph And Pea To Marble Sized Hail Will Be The Greatest Threat From
The Stronger Storms Along With Occasional Lightning And Brief
Heavy Rainfall.

Wind...
Strong South Winds Of 15 To 20 Mph With Gusts To 30 Mph At Times
Can Be Expected Through This Evening Across The Outlook Area.

Marine...
A Small Craft Advisory Is In Effect For The Gulf Coastal Waters
Through This Evening. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution On Tidal
Lakes Today.

Hydrology...
High River Flows And Flooding Continues Along The Mississippi
And Atchafalaya Rivers. Please Refer To The Latest River Flood
Warnings And Statements For Updated Information.

.days Two Through Seven...saturday Through Thursday

Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall Are Expected Saturday...ending
From West To East Saturday Night. Thunderstorms Are Possible Again
Next Thursday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-03-2008 04:36 AM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans La
216 Am Cdt Sat May 3 2008

Laz034>040-046>050-056>070-msz068>071-077-080>082-031100-
Pointe Coupee-west Feliciana-east Feliciana-st. Helena-tangipahoa-
Washington-st. Tammany-iberville-west Baton Rouge-
East Baton Rouge-ascension-livingston-assumption-st. James-
St. John The Baptist-upper Lafourche-st. Charles-upper Jefferson-
Orleans-upper Plaquemines-upper St. Bernard-upper Terrebonne-
Lower Terrebonne-lower Lafourche-lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-lower St. Bernard-wilkinson-amite-pike-walthall-
Pearl River-han****-harrison-jackson-
Including The Cities Of...new Roads...livonia...
St. Francisville...jackson...clinton...greensburg...montpelier...
Hammond...ponchatoula...bogalusa...franklinton...slidell...
Mandeville...covington...lacombe...plaquemine...white Castle...
Port Allen...addis...brusly...baton Rouge...gonzales...
Donaldsonville...denham Springs...walker...pierre Part...
Labadieville...paincourtville...lutcher...gramercy...laplace...
Reserve...thibodaux...raceland...larose...destrehan...norco...
Metairie...kenner...new Orleans...belle Chasse...chalmette...
Violet...houma...bayou Cane...chauvin...dulac...montegut...
Galliano...cut Off...golden Meadow...port Sulphur...empire...
Yscloskey...centreville...woodville...gloster...liberty...
Crosby...mccomb...tylertown...picayune...bay St. Louis...
Waveland...diamondhead...gulfport...biloxi...pascagoula...
Ocean Springs...moss Point...gautier...st. Martin
216 Am Cdt Sat May 3 2008

.thunderstorms Expected To Enter The Area Later Tonight And Early
Saturday Morning...

A Very Humid And Unstable Airmass Is Situated Over South Louisiana
And Southern Mississippi. A Weak And Slow Moving Cold Front Will
Bring A Round Of Strong To Possibly Severe Thunderstorms Into
East-central Louisiana And Southwest Mississippi By 4
Am...continuing Eastward Across Southeast Louisiana Through Daybreak.
Scattered Showers Will Also Be Possible For The Remainder Of
Tonight Prior To The Line Of Storms Passage.

The Primary Concerns Will Be Flooding Rains...particularly In
Areas That Received Heavy Rains Friday Evening In The Florida
Parishes. Some Of The Stronger Storms May Produce Damaging Wind
Gusts And Some Hail. An Isolated Funnel Cloud Or Weak Tornado Can
Not Be Ruled Out.

Be Aware Of Inclement Weather Moving Through The Area This
Morning. A Flash Flood Watch May Be Issued This Morning For
Portions Of South Louisiana And Southern Mississippi. Stay Tuned
To Local Tv...radio And Internet For Later Statements And
Possible Warnings Through This Saturday Morning.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-05-2008 07:20 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
341 Am Cdt Mon May 5 2008

.short Term...
Cool Air Drainage From The Northeast Underway Over The Forecast
Area While Higher Dew Points Are Pooling South And West Of The
Area. Will Have An Unmentionable 10 Percent Chance Of Showers For
This Afternoon For The Westernmost Parishes In The Event Some
Residual Convection Spills Eastward From Ongoing Activity Over
East Texas...but Most Areas Should Remain Dry For Today And
Tuesday. Temperatures Near Climatology Today And Tuesday. /24

.long Term...
Dew Points Slowly Increase Over The Area Wednesday Through Sunday
As Flow Becomes Predominantly Onshore. Will Maintain 10-20 Percent
Chance Of Thunderstorms Each Day Mainly With Gulf And Lake Breeze
Boundaries And Nocturnal Low Topped Showers. Next Organized Rain
Chances Seem To Be Now Delayed Into Very Late Sunday Or Next
Monday From Frontal Passage...per Gfs Model Run. If The Latest
Ecmwf Model Is Correct...then Sunday May Be A Heavy Rainfall And
Flooding Episode From Stalled Frontal Zone Over The Region. At
This Time Will Go Closer To Gfs Solution But Will Be Watching
Trends Of Models In Subsequent Runs Going Into The Weekend. /24