Hardcore Weather
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html)
+--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html)



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-04-2008 10:05 AM

Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans La
957 Am Cdt Fri Apr 4 2008

.update...
Updating Zones To Include Newly Issued Tornado Watch 164 For Our
Southwest Mississippi Counties And East-central Louisiana
Parishes...including Mccomb And Baton Rouge Through 6 Pm. Will
Also Add Severe Wording Into Zones But Leave Unqualified As The
Predominant Risk Seems Uncertain. Current Wind Profilers In The
Region Indicate Deep Layered Southwesterly Flow Which Is Not
Necessarily Favorable For Tornadoes But More Conducive Of Damaging
Winds From Convective Linear Systems. Local Storm Scale Winds May
Be Able To Back In The Short-term To Provide Better Helicities For
Tornado Development Later This Afternoon. We Do Have Some Capping
In Place Based On 12z Sounding But This Can Be Overcome With
Daytime Temperatures In The Mid 80s...as Currently Forecasted For
The Area. We Will Be Launching An 18z Special Flight To Re-assess
The Pre-storm Environment. Update Out Shortly.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-04-2008 08:35 PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
605 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-051000-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
605 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

I just went outside on my patio. The low level clouds are moving from East to West, and the surface winds blowing from the North to Northwest. Might be a wild and wooly night! Got the generator uncovered and ready...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-06-2008 07:49 AM

The Corps of Engineers is announcing the possible opening of the Bonnet Carre spillway if rains continue. wwltv.com report. First time since 1997 that they've had to open the gates to divert river water from New Orleans.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-08-2008 06:22 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
305 Am Cdt Tue Apr 8 2008

.short Term...
Low Pressure System In The Southern Plains Developing Steadiliy
Under Strongly Diffluent Upper Pattern Over The Central Plains And
Central Mississippi Valley. This Area Should Be The Focus Of Much
Of The Weather Today In The Country. Associated Cold Front Only
Gets So Far East...becoming Quasi-stationary Over West Louisiana
Tonight And Wednesday While Another Stronger Spring Storm Develops
Over West Texas Thursday. Compressional Heating And Strong Warm
Air Advection In Advance Of The Frontal Approach Should Force Daytime
Temperatures Into The 80s Today And Again Wednesday. Will Hold Off
Rain Chances Today And Only Show 20 Percent For Wednesday Afternoon.

.long Term...
The Thursday System Should Undergo Full Maturity And Eventual
Occlusion As It Moves Towards The Great Lakes States And New
England Later This Week. Associated Cold Front Moves Through
Forecast Area Friday. This Frontal Passage Should Be Primarily A
Rain-maker And Not Much In The Way Of Severe As Best Dynamics
Moves Well North Of The Area. Meanwhile...the Upper Level Pattern
Takes On A Full Latitude Troughing Over The Eastern Half Of The
U.s. To Bring Unseasonably Cold Air As Far South As The Gulf
States This Weekend. Morning Lows Sunday Night Will Likely Be
About 12 To 15 Degrees Below Normal...mostly In The 40s Area-wide
With Perhaps An Upper 30s Reading In The More Interior Locations.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-10-2008 07:17 AM

AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES
THIS MRONGN IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SPRING STORM OVER TEXAS.
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE WEDGE
INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE OMEGA AND UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW WITH
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. STRONGEST PART OF
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SIERRAS WITH A 150KT
MAXIMUM MOVING TOWARDS THE LAS VEGAS AREA. RADAR PRESENTATION
SHOWS DERECHO LOOKING BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
EJECT NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY TODAY BUT BEING REPLACED BY NEXT
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
RE-INVIGORATE THE CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHERE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS APTLY PLACED A MODERATE
RISK AREA. THE PROSPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
MARGINAL AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
UPON THE ARRIVAL OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO SHOW STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
BEFORE WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL FRIDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
DURATION OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WIND
THREAT GOING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

RAN LOCAL CHAP PROGRAM ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND IT DOES NOT
SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE WORST OUTPUT WAS
40-50 MPH WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND MARBLE SIZED HAIL POTENTIALS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WORDING OF SLIGHT RISK
BUT WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT OR MENTION IN ZONE PRODUCT.

COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S TODAY AWAY FROM
COOLER MARINE INFLUENCES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW TOPPED MARINE LAYER SHOWERS AT 20 PERCENT. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AND ONSET OF RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE LOWER FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S. EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. /24

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTATION SITUATED NE-SW
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA AS A LARGE
AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HAVE CONCERNS OF CLOUDS LINGERING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY TO CAUSE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS
WEEKEND. IT IS WITH HIGH CERTAINTY THAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A FEW MORNINGS IN THE
40S...MAYBE AN UPPER 30S READING IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS MONDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /24


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 04-10-2008 07:30 AM

Continued thanks DK and Roll.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 04-10-2008 02:12 PM

Hey Boat, How about one of your color, easy to read picture maps with the LA/MS forecast? I love those maps.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-10-2008 05:54 PM

Obviously not Boat but:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES......

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...AS A CLOSED AND NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED CYCLONE SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD FROM IA INTO LOWER MI DURING THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION. EAST OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES EWD INTO NRN PA/WRN NY DURING THE DAY.

...OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...100KT AT 500 MB AND 40-50KT AT 850
MB...WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD DURING THE DAY...WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...PLUS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...DEEP SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND ALSO ALONG WARM FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

THE STRONG KINEMATICS/THERMODYNAMICS AND FORCING SUGGEST A FEW
HIGHER END WIND EVENTS...AND EVEN A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...ARE
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...IF THE INSTABILITY/HEATING OCCURS AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS...A MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION
OF THE AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS. THE CONCERN AT THIS TIME FOR A HIGHER
RISK IS CONVECTION TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN RESIDUAL
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT
OF HEATING AND THE CONSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN VALLEY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT AND FORCING LOCATED WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE DAY AS AIR MASS WARMS AND DESTABILIZES... MLCAPES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AHEAD OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. DEEP SWLY
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING... WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS TN/KY... WEAKER FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA MAY
RESULT IN LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT HERE THAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND UPPER OH VALLEY.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 04-11-2008 08:06 PM

What is with the June bugs this year? They are plastered all over my windows at night and dive-bomb me when I'm sitting outside at night. I don't remember them this bad--ever. Is it the weather here in the New Orleans area or what???


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-13-2008 01:01 PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans La
623 Am Cdt Sun Apr 13 2008

Laz034>040-046>050-056>070-msz068>071-077-080>082-132200-
Pointe Coupee-west Feliciana-east Feliciana-st. Helena-tangipahoa-
Washington-st. Tammany-iberville-west Baton Rouge-
East Baton Rouge-ascension-livingston-assumption-st. James-
St. John The Baptist-upper Lafourche-st. Charles-upper Jefferson-
Orleans-upper Plaquemines-upper St. Bernard-upper Terrebonne-
Lower Terrebonne-lower Lafourche-lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-lower St. Bernard-wilkinson-amite-pike-walthall-
Pearl River-han****-harrison-jackson-
Including The Cities Of...new Roads...livonia...
St. Francisville...jackson...clinton...greensburg...montpelier...
Hammond...ponchatoula...bogalusa...franklinton...slidell...
Mandeville...covington...lacombe...plaquemine...white Castle...
Port Allen...addis...brusly...baton Rouge...gonzales...
Donaldsonville...denham Springs...walker...pierre Part...
Labadieville...paincourtville...lutcher...gramercy...laplace...
Reserve...thibodaux...raceland...larose...destrehan...norco...
Metairie...kenner...new Orleans...belle Chasse...chalmette...
Violet...houma...bayou Cane...chauvin...dulac...montegut...
Galliano...cut Off...golden Meadow...port Sulphur...empire...
Yscloskey...centreville...woodville...gloster...liberty...
Crosby...mccomb...tylertown...picayune...bay St. Louis...
Waveland...diamondhead...gulfport...biloxi...pascagoula...
Ocean Springs...moss Point...gautier...st. Martin
623 Am Cdt Sun Apr 13 2008

...unseasonably Cold Weather Expected Late Tonight And Monday
Night...

Comfortably Mild Temperatures And Low Humidity Will Prevail Today.
However...an Unusually Cool To Cold Airmass More Typical Of
Winter Will Move Into Central Gulf Coast Region Tonight And
Persist Through Wednesday Morning. Low Temperatures Late Tonight
And Monday Morning Will Drop Into The Upper 30s Over Much Of
Southwest Mississippi...east Central And Southeast Louisiana...
North Of Interstate 12...and Coastal Mississippi...north Of
Interstate 10. Areas To The South And Along The Coast Will Have
Low Temperatures In The 40s...but The Wind Will Make It Feel
Several Degrees Colder.

High Temperatures On Monday Will Only Reach Near 60 Or In The
Lower 60s. The Core Of The Cold High Pressure Area Will Move Into
The Area Monday Night. This Will Cause The Northerly Winds To
Become Light With Skies Mostly Clear. This Will Allow Temperatures
To Fall To Record Lows...in The Mid 30s Over Extreme South
Mississippi...away From The Immediate Coast...and Across Most Of
East Central And Portions Of Southeast Louisiana...west And North
Of Lake Pontchartrain. Patchy Frost Is Possible In These Areas
Late Monday Night And Early Tuesday Morning...and Temperatures
Could Briefly Reach Close To Freezing In Some Of The Colder
Locations.

To The South...areas Along The Immediate Mississippi Coast...and
Across Southeast Louisiana...south Of Lake Pontchartrain...
Should Expect Near Record Or Record Low Temperatures In The Upper
30s To Mid 40s Monday Night. Winds Will Stay Up At Least 5 To 10
Miles Per Hour In These Areas...so Frost Is Not Expected.
However...wind Chill Temperatures Will Make It Feel Several
Degrees Colder.

Those Using Portable Heaters Are Reminded Of The Normal Winter
Safety Precautions To Safeguard Against Fire And Carbon Monoxide
Fumes.

As Many Plants And Flowers Are In Full Bloom With The Growing
Season Underway...patchy Frost On Monday Night Could Be Damaging
To Blooming...unprotected Plants And Tender Vegetation.
Fortunately...as Frost Is Not Expected To Develop Until Well After
Midnight...and Overnight Temperatures Should Remain Above The
Freezing Mark...this Damage Is Not Anticipated To Be Widespread.