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New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 01-10-2008 10:35 AM

Where was this when I needed it two weeks ago???:confused:


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-11-2008 09:32 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 111031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
431 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MODERATE STRENGTH COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS TO CLEAR EARLY GIVING WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS LAND AREAS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR A CHANGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF BRINGING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH DRY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...BUT ANY SPOTTY RAIN OR SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE AND JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
A REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MAJOR
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND A SIGNIFICANT COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. IT APPEARS A VERY LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE WEST
GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TOWARDS FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POP TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN ON
WEDNESDAY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LARGE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A WELL PHASED SYSTEM WHICH WOULD BRING COLD AIR TO SUSTAIN WINTRY
TYPE PRECIPITATION AFTER RAIN ENDS THURSDAY EVENING. THE 00Z GFS
HAS A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT ALLOWS COLD AIR
TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF ANOTHER SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
THE GFS SHOW A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AROUND MCCOMB AND
BATON ROUGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THIS
IS WAY OUT ON DAY 7 NIGHT AND DAY 8 MORNING...SO WILL NOT JUMP ON
THIS YET...BUT AM INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED ALL TERMINALS AND NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY. SFC WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS WITH
A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES FOR SCC(SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) WILL CONTINUE FOR A
SHORT DURATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY FALL FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO 10 TO 15 BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA AS ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
QUICKLY MOVES ENE. THE STRONG SETTLED HIGH WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE
AS FAST CAUSING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WIND SPEEDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
NEW SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS ABATE THURSDAY.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-14-2008 10:41 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 140949
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CST MON JAN 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
U.S. DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING
EAST. A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND OPEN UP AND THEN TRAVERSE TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND TROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TRACK IT JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN ORDER
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE IS ACTED UPON BY STRONG LIFT. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
GALE CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. TIDES WILL INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING A
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE RATHER LIMITED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
THREE QUARTER OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK
AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST ISSUES FOR LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CURRENT HAZARDS THROUGH 18Z...EXERCISE CAUTION ON INNER
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUTER WATERS. DAY SHIFT MAY
NEED TO EXTEND A COUPLE OF HOURS IF WINDS DON`T BEGIN TO ABATE BY
NOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE IN 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BEFORE SUNSET.
THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AS WELL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF GULF LOW.
GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN GULF LOW AND SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IF CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE. COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY...AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ABOUT 50 TO 100 MILES OFF
LOUISIANA COAST. WILL KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW GALE CRITERIA FOR
NOW...BUT NOT BY MUCH. MAIN THREAT PERIOD ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-15-2008 02:26 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 150931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MODERATE RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES...IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OF THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...OPENS UP TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES NORTHERN MEXICO AND
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS TONIGHT AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GULF TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SINCE WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES...A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM 12Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISSUES WITH
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE DURATION OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
SHORT THE PROSPECT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS MARGINAL AND WE HAVE
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. QPF
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL THREE
INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE OFFING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS EAST AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST ISSUES FOR LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION...MSY AND GPT TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
CEILINGS LOWERING TOWARD MVFR RANGE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 35
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...SO TO SPEAK. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF...ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS AT BUOY 42055. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD US THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN INCREASING DURING
THE EVENING. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. CENTER OF LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
OUTER COASTAL ZONES...AND SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BACK OUT OF GALE CATEGORY ACROSS
THE AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. ON THE TIDAL LAKES...WINDS SHOULD REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD ABATE
SOMEWHAT BY 06Z THURSDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASED
WINDS...WITH 9 TO 12 FOOT SEAS LIKELY ON THE OUTER WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY...6 TO 9 FEET ON THE INNER WATERS.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS BORDERLINE FOR A WATCH. WITH THE AID OF THE
WINDS...TIDES 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS...AND A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY. 35

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-16-2008 09:09 AM

Heavy rains will be possible today...

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana... lower
Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St.
Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans... St. Charles... St.
Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper
Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne. In
southern Mississippi... Han****... Harrison and Jackson.

* Through this afternoon

* widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
through Wednesday evening... with isolated higher amounts
possible. In addition... a strong east wind over the Gulf is
expected to push tides 2 to 3 feet above normal along the
Mississippi and southeast Louisiana coasts Wednesday afternoon.

* Urban and small stream flooding will be possible today. As high
tide is reached in the afternoon... and heavier rains persist
into the late afternoon hours... more extensive flooding may
result that could threaten homes... businesses... and vehicles
through the afternoon hours.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.





332 am CST Wed Jan 16 2008

... Coastal flooding possible in southeast Louisiana and coastal
Mississippi today...

... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening...

A coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening.

An area of low pressure was located around 100 miles east of
Brownsville Texas early this morning... and will move
northeast... reaching the southeast Louisiana coastal waters this
afternoon. This low will interact with a large and retreating area
of high pressure over the eastern states... resulting in gale force
winds across the coastal waters during the day.

Strong east winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 mph will
impact the coastal waters of southeast Louisiana to the west of
the Mississippi River Delta during the morning. These strong winds
are then expected to spread northeast toward the Mississippi coast
by midday. Tide levels are expected to increase rapidly due to a
combination of the strong winds and rising astronomical tides.
Water level rises of 2 to 3 feet are possible from the
astronomical low tide levels early this morning to high tides this
afternoon. This increase may cause flooding of low lying coastal
areas... outside of the levee protection system... from Waveland
Mississippi to the western and southern portions of lakes
Maurepas... Pontchartrain and borgne... to near Port Fourchon
Louisiana.

All persons in the coastal area should be ready to take action to
protect life and property and move to higher ground. Remain alert
and keep listening to your radio... television... or NOAA Weather
Radio for updates.

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-16-2008 09:11 AM

Wind Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CST this evening...

... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM CST this evening...

A Wind Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CST this evening.

Winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph are expected to develop
this morning and continue into the early evening hours as an area
of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The
strongest winds should be over coastal sections of southeast
Louisiana and Mississippi... with lighter winds expected further
inland.

A Wind Advisory means that winds 26 to 39 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour occasionally bring down
large limbs and rotted trees causing serious injury and property
damage. Exercise caution when outdoors during these strong winds.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-17-2008 10:13 AM

862
fxus64 klix 171007
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
407 am CST Thursday Jan 17 2008


Discussion...
after a very rainy and chilly day yesterday...a brief respite can
be expected across the forecast area today before a return to wet
conditions once again on Friday and Friday night. A digging upper
trough over the central Continental U.S. Will move into the eastern U.S.
Friday night and Saturday. As it does so...cyclogenesis is again
expected over the western Gulf of Mexico late tonight and Friday.
This surface low is forecast to move across the northern Gulf
Friday night on a track a little farther south than its
predecessor took on Thursday. Widespread rain is again expected by
Friday night with winds increasing again...although this time the
pressure gradient is not forecast to be quite as strong as with
the previous system so winds will likely remain below gale force.


A cold airmass will spread across the Gulf Coast region over the
weekend with a freeze expected across southern Mississippi and
those areas of southeast Louisiana to the north and west of Lake
Pontchartrain Saturday night. Low temperatures early Sunday
morning may also be flirting with the freezing mark southwest of
Lake Pontchartrain in areas such as upper Terrebonne and upper
Lafourche parishes.


Warm air advection will begin by Monday with temperatures
moderating next week. A series of impulses in the southwesterly
flow aloft will bring rain chances back into the picture by Monday
night and through much of the work week. A cold front will
approach the area from the north on Wednesday as an upper trough
moves across the Great Lakes and into the northeast Tuesday into
Wednesday. The frontal boundary will likely stall out near or just
to the north of the area before an upper trough digging across the
western U.S. Over the weekend and into early next week finally moves
east across the central and into the eastern Continental U.S. And pushes the
front through the area. Medium range models still have some timing
differences with this scenario during the middle of next week.




&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-29-2008 10:23 AM

809
fxus64 klix 291018
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
418 am CST Tuesday Jan 29 2008


Short term...
progressive pattern will continue through the extended. Cold front
currently getting organized out west will be moving through the
area tonight. Some sh/ts will be along with the front when it
moves through but no organized severe weather is expected.


A warm front will be activated as the remnants of tonights cold
front stalls over the Gulf and gets caught up in the next systems
return flow. This next system should move through Thursday and
Thursday night and is expected to be much stronger. We will fall into
the warm sector by Thursday morning and from that point on things look
to go down hill as far as severe weather. Rhode Island numbers are in the
140-145 range Thursday for msy and gpt. Other severe weather numbers seem to
prime around the same time as well. Helicity values are ranging
from 350-600 units during the day Thursday. These high helicity values
are being induced by strong direction and speed shear. The local and
level of free convection are coupled and very low showing the system to be surface based as
it moves through the eastern 2/3rds of the area. Btr and mcb
numbers are not as high but still fall within the lower
thresholds of severe weather. Numbers increase eastward and
northward as the system moves through Thursday. This seems to be within
specs since the system is deepening and developing rapidly as it
moves through the area. Any hazardous weather should be over by
late Thursday evening.


Long term...
another cold front looks to move through on Tuesday of next week. Will
adjust as needed with respect to extended but no changes to be
made at this time as focus will be mainly on extent of severity in the
short to middle term.


&&


Aviation...
models have been overly agressive in bring low level clouds into
terminals this morning but have yet to materialize. Few returns on
WSR-88D VAD wind profile shows southwest winds 25 knots at 1kft
likely keeping a well mixed boundary layer. Linear convection noted
in northwest Louisiana vicinity of kshv likely to become primary
focus for showers and few thunderstorms over terminals this
afternoon and early evening...though best dynamics should remain
well north of the area. Looking for frontal passage at kbtr and kmcb around
00z...kmsy around 02z and kgpt around 03z. 24


&&


Marine...
strong southerly flow to develop in advance of front today will
shift hard northwest tonight with a few gusts near minimal gale
force mainly after midnight tonight through daybreak Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory in effect for this evening through Wednesday
for coastal waters and late tonight and early Wednesday for tidal
lakes. Another strong surge expected to move into north Gulf late
Thursday as better dynamics and surface based low pressure system
moves across Louisiana and central Mississippi during the day
Thursday. 24


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 72 35 56 35 / 70 30 0 20
btr 73 37 58 37 / 70 20 0 20
msy 74 42 58 41 / 60 50 0 10
gpt 70 40 57 38 / 40 60 0 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 02-04-2008 02:29 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.SHORT TERM...

NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OVER TEXAS TONIGHT...AS
A JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND BEGINS TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM...A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
REFLECT THIS.

GOING INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATED PREVISOULY. RECENT MODEL RUNS AND UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS POINTS TO MORE OF AN OVERNIGHT EVENT NOW. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR TUESDAY...BUT THEN BRING IN LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES WHERE THE DYNAMICS ARE BEST. HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN POINTS ON
TUESDAY...DUE TO THE LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS...COMBINED WITH
STRONG LIFT ALOFT FROM THE JET STREAK AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWER...MIDDLE...AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE FAIRLY UNIDIRECITONAL.
EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE...MOST
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NEGATIVE VORTICITY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING OR NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. OVERALL THICKNESS DROPS OF ABOUT 100-150
METERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A VERY BENIGN PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...BUT
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SLIP THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD SLIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
OVERALL...NO LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIRLY UNIFORM AIRMASS
DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 02-04-2008 03:30 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

Thanks Roll!:wink: :icon_kiss