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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-28-2007 10:39 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280810
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
210 AM CST WED NOV 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR STILL MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE HERE BY THU MORNING. MAY BE SOME FOG TONIGHT
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...
ARCTIC FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
KEEPING TEMPS FROM LEAVING THE 50S FOR HIGHS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
DOWNWARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY DO THE
SAME AS WE CLOSE IN ON NEXT MONDAY. MOS GUIDANCE WILL BEGIN TO
SHOW THIS LOWERING TEMP AS MONDAY COMES OUT OF THE 132 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-03-2007 10:45 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North wind around 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 62. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. West wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. West wind between 5 and 10 mph.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-05-2007 07:59 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. West wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 63. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 76. South wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Saturday: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-06-2007 02:26 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 061602 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1002 AM CST THU DEC 6 2007

.UPDATE...
WILL DO A BRIEF UPDATE TO PLAY DOWN FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOMEWHAT.
ONE HAS TO GO WELL OFFSHORE TO FIND 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...AND WIND
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RETURN THAT MOIST AIR
TO LAND TONIGHT. ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE PATCHY...AND
RADIATIONAL INSTEAD OF ADVECTIVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
SLOWER TO RISE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NOT MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. 35/RSW


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 12-15-2007 05:00 PM

Whoa! All of a sudden it's dark and the wind is really blowing like crazy! And the turkey brain across the street is burning leaves! He's gonna catch the woods on fire.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 12-27-2007 10:15 AM

weather???


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-02-2008 01:32 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 020916
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 AM CST WED JAN 2 2008

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED TO
THE SURFACE THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5470 TO 5430 METERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. THESE THICKNESSES SUPPORT READINGS A GOOD
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THIS...HAVE HARD FREEZE AND
FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO
ENERGY SLAMMING INTO THE WEST COAST FROM AN ALEUTIAN LOW SLIDING
SOUTHWARD...AND A VORTEX OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WEAKENING AND
SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES WILL RISE ABOUT 100
METERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT BY ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
ALLOW A BIT MORE GULF MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY
LIMITED...AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MUCH WARMER AND
WETTER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD. A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND
ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW A FAST MOVING...BUT FAIRLY WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE GRADIENT
SHARPENS BETWEEN BETWEEN A LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST. STRONG MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. FOG MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARMER AND MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF SLIDES OVER THE COOLER
WATERS NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AS THICKNESSES CLIMB AN
ADDITIONAL 50 OR SO METERS TO AROUND 5620 METERS. THESE SAME
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT A MUCH
STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ALLOWING A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD AREA OF LIFT IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW WILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
FINALLY KICK EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF JET STREAK. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND DRAW
DOWN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AS
A RESULT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
TEXAS AND RACE EASTWARD THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE...BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT INDICATED IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS. STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THICKNESSES SHOULD
ALSO FALL ABOUT 100 METERS FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL. THESE COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-07-2008 12:00 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 070958
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CST MON JAN 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...
HEALTHY MARINE LAYER INFLUENCES FOR TODAY AS DEW POINTS HAVE PUSHED
INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE IN
LEE OF ROCKIES AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY. CONVERGENT CLOUD STREETS MOVING AROUND
FRINGES OF RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF AND FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF COVERAGE
BUT WORTHY OF 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FRONT GETS
FARTHER EAST...DYNAMICS BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST AND ELONGATES THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO
BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WERE CLOSER. WILL
SHOW ONLY A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO GET HUNG OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT...CAUSING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOW PROGRESS ENOUGH TO ALLOW NEXT
FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE TO CATCH UP AND DRAW FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS COULD BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL UNTIL
STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF GULF LOW CYCLOGENESIS FOR SATURDAY. THE
GFS MOVES A LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT APPEARS TO
LACK DEEP BAROCLINIC STRUCTURE TO PRODUCE SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERNS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT LOUISIANA OR SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...MOVES A LOW ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALOFT. IF THIS SOLUTION
WINS OUT...THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET OR WINTRY MIX TO CONSIDER FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WILL NOT TAKE THIS OPTION YET AND LEANING MORE
TOWARD GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS AS THE SCENARIO EXIST THAT COULD PROVIDE A WINTER WEATHER
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...SEASONABLY COLD AIR
RETURNS TO THE GULF STATES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY A VFR CEILING DURING THE DAY. IFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND BEYOND IN MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL ABOVE AREAL WATER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER EASTERN
WATERS DUE TO HIGHER WINDS IN CONVERGENT FLOW AROUND THE FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH
COASTAL WATERS AND BRINGS MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
BECOMING NORTH FRIDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERATION OF A GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUT MODEL NOW FAVOR FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS IN A TIGHTER GRADIENT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. NOT SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION YET
AND LEANED TOWARDS MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION WITH WIND FIELD AND
SEAS.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-09-2008 10:57 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 091235 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
635 AM CST WED JAN 9 2008

.UPDATE...
OKAY LETS TRY THIS AGAIN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR OVER-
RUNNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO INCREASE STEADILY SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. ISOLATED THUNDER REPORTED NEAR NEW
IBERIA AND NORTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE...SUGGESTING SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND ENOUGH UPGLIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT AND DO
BELIEVE MOST SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY POCKET OR TWO. ALSO INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. REST OF PACKAGE LEFT UNCHANGED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED JAN 9 2008/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PRETTY MUCH FIZZLED
UPON REACHING THE ALABAMA STATE LINE AT THE GULF COAST. ONLY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DEPICTING THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND SOME
OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM ALREADY DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FRONT INTO
ACADIANA REGION. WINDS ARE STILL STRONG NORTHERLY AT BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS NOT STALLED JUST YET BUT WINDS HAVE
GONE SOUTHERLY ALREADY IN NORTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MEANING THE FRONTS PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW SOON. INDICATED A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING FOR LIGHT STRATIFORM PATCHES. ALSO WENT WARMER THAN GFS
AND CLOSER TO NAM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SOFTENS TONIGHT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PASSING MARINE LAYER TYPE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN 30
PERCENT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY REGARDING WARM TEMPERATURES IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR.
BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE AS STEEP A LAPSE RATE ALOFT AS
ON TUESDAY...THERE IS LITTLE NEGATIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME.
LOCAL CHAP PROGRAM DOES NOT REALLY HIT THE CONVECTION TOO
HARD...MAINLY MODERATELY STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY. WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES JUST YET BUT WILL MAINTAIN WORDING
IN HWO.

LONG TERM...
SHOULD BE A DRY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE GULF
STATES AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND MODERATES. GFS NOW SHOWS GULF LOW
SYSTEM DEVELOPING MONDAY AND MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THE AREA...LEAVING ANOTHER FLIRTATION WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS AT GPT SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. AFTER THAT...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR AT MOST TERMINALS. 35

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-10-2008 08:36 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 101052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF OUR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED SINCE LATE EVENING. THE FOG HAS NOT
BEEN WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS...HOWEVER...IT IS STILL PREVALENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
KEEPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...INSTABILITY...AND SHOWERS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FOG TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH AN UPPER JET SPEED MAX
LIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS WAY UP IN KS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL TX. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE HIGH AND
COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HIGH...BUT MODEST BOUYANCY WITH CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ARE
LIKELY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL MODES AND TYPES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM DISCREET SUPERCELLS...AND LINES WITH
LEWPS AND BOWS ALONG THE MAIN LINE. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ACROSS SOUTH MS...AND A PORTION OF THIS
AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE LATER ONCE AREAS
OF BETTER SURFACE HEATING BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE MOST ACTIVE TIME
OF THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE MCCOMB AREA TO NEAR BATON ROUGE...AND
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM THE NEW ORLEANS
AREA TO THE MS GULF COAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND RAIN WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AND
END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.