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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-19-2007 03:55 PM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
314 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 19 2007

.discussion...
First 48 Hours Of Our Forecast Will Be Tranquil Compared To This
Weekend. With The Strong Upper Level Low Over Florida And Surface
Ridge From Mid South To Northwest Gulf...northeast Winds Will
Maintain Relatively Dry At All Levels Over The Forecast Area
Through Thursday Afternoon. Thickness Values From 1000 To 700mb
Should Remain Around 3030m Through Tonight And Surface Temps Will
Reflect This Trend For Most Areas. However...nne Winds Of 10 To 15
Knots Across The Tidal Lakes Will Not Decouple And Should Capture
Lake Temps Overnight Across New Orleans. Gfs Is A Little Faster Than Nam
With The Moisture Field Invading East Zones Thursday Night. In
Addition...there Are Some Differences In Location Of The
Associated Surface Low And Especially The Track Across The Gulf. Nam
Is Slower And Farther North Than Gfs. The Greatest Surface
Pressure Falls Were Noted From Naples To Off The Coast Of Daytona
Beach. Gfs And Nam Showed This Initial Development Of Two Lows
With The Southwest Low Become The Predominant Low Thursday
Morning. According To Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Of
Aoml...the Warmest Waters In The Gulf Were Located Off Of
Southwest Florida And Central Gulf
. Aloft...minus 9c Was Noted At
12z Tampa And Key West. Gfs...nam And European Initialized This
Field Well. All Dampen The Cold Core By Thursday Afternoon And
Some Indication Of A Sub-tropical System Becoming Tropical. With
Some Much Dry Air Entrainment...it Will Be Difficult To Place The
Heaviest Rainfall Right Or Left Of An Uncertain Track At This
Time...so Will Leaves Pops As Is. We Are More Certain That
Northeast To Southeast Winds Continuing And Increasing Toward The Weekend Will
Cause Coastal Flooding Friday Through Sunday. Depending On Track
Of The Center Of Circulation...eastward And/or Southward Facing
Shorelines May Experience This Problem. May Have To Consider A
Coastal Flood Watch In Later Packages. Will Maintain Normal Rain
Chances Next Monday Through Wednesday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-20-2007 04:42 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 200854AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA354 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAINTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACEACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATEFRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT ISFORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLYRESIDING OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TRACKS WESTWARDACROSS THE GULF AND...ACCORDING TO MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...APPROACHESSOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SATURDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE POSSIBILITYOF SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALREADYSURFACE PRESSURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LOWERING OVER FLORIDA. ATANY RATE AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...DEEPER MOISTUREWILL RETURN WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTOTHE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE POSSIBILITYOF COASTAL FLOODING IF THE LOW DOES INDEED DEEPEN AS MOST MODELSFORECAST. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW THATMOVES OUT OF THE SOUTH GULF AND INTO LOUISIANA ON THE HEELS OFTHE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WAS DISCOUNTED.BEYOND THE WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED WITHA COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST SATES WEDNESDAYINTO THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THEEASTERN CONUS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2007 08:20 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 210835AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA335 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007.DISCUSSION...COLD CORE MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GULFEARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ESTIMATED TO BEAROUND A LITTLE OVER 100 MILES WEST OF TAMPA. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEINCREASE IN CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT AND THISSYSTEM MAY BECOME SUB-TROPICAL TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECASTTHIS LOW TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ANDSOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCESWILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITHTHE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORYCONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OFTHE RIVER AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW INTHE EAST GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. A COASTAL FLOODWATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS INADVANCE OF THE LOW CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE...MAINLY ALONGNORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SHORES. TIDES MAY INCREASE TO 1 TO 2FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND UP TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.TIDES IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN MAY INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVENORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM...A RATHER DRYATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILLPROVIDE FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSSCOASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERSOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THE LOWBEGINS TO APPROACH. OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERNHALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVEACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS CONTINUES TOINSIST ON ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH GULF AND TOWARDLOUISIANA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS AGAINBEEN PLAYED DOWN. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THEREST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A MORE MOISTURE LADENATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE COMPARED TO THE ONE OF THE PAST FEWDAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THEGULF COAST STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WEDNESDAY INTOTHURSDAY.&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2007 09:16 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 230919AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA419 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSSTHE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHED INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING ASTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. DEEP TROPICALMOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSSTHE GULF IS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHGULF TONIGHT AND INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT ANDMONDAY. PLAN ON 50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY ANDLIKELY POPS ON MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AWEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTH GULF GULF TODAY THAT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHTOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON MONDAY. THE GEM HAS IS SIMILARWITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A GULF LOW WITH OTHER MODELSALSO SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW BUT GENERALLYFARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ONTUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...SORAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILLAPPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANUPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS ARESULT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WERE INCLUDED IN THEFORECAST FOR THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEON THE DRIER SIDE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dhs62 - 09-23-2007 11:17 AM

Thanks Roll Appreciate these very much even though u are a Tide fan. Should be a very interesting game with my Tigers.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-24-2007 06:35 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
356 Am Cdt Mon Sep 24 2007

.discussion...
Scattered Showers And A Few Thunderstorms Continue To Develop
Early This Morning Over Mainly The Western Half Of The Forecast
Area As A Fetch Of Tropical Moisture Continues To Surge Northward
From The Gulf. Widespread Showers And Thunderstorms Expected Through
The Day Will Be Aided By An Upper Level Jet Over The Lower Mississippi
Valley That Will Provide For Upper Level Divergence Over The Central
Gulf Coast Region. Precipitable Water Values Well Over Two Inches
Could Result In Some Locally Heavy Rainfall Amounts. Precipitation
Coverage Is Not Expected To Be Quite As Great Tomorrow As Drier
Air Begins To Filter Into The Forecast Area From The East With The
Nam Being More Aggressive Than The Gfs In Bringing The Drier Air
In. Plan To Include Pops Ranging From 30 Percent Across Eastern
Zones To 50 Percent Over Western Zones Tuesday. The Nam And Gfs Diverge
On Precipitation Chances On Wednesday With The Nam Forecasting A
Much Drier Scenario With Drier Air Entrenched Across The Area. At
This Time...plan To Continue With 30 Percent Pops On Wednesday.
As An Upper Trough Digs Across The Great Lakes And Eastern Conus
For The End Of The Week...a Cold Front Will Approach The Region
From The North Late Thursday And Thursday Night. Recent Gfs
Solutions Have Waffled On How Far South To Push This Front And How
Much Dry Air Will Actually Work Into The Forecast Area Behind
Front. The Latest Gfs Forecast Pushes The Front Well Into The Gulf
With Significantly Drier Air Providing For A Mostly Dry Forecast
Friday And Saturday. Moisture Will Begin To Make Its Way Back Into
The Area Sunday In Advance Of Another Approaching Cold Front Early
Next Week.

&&

.aviation...
Mainly Mvfr Conditions Expected Today At All Taf Sites With
Occasional Ifr Conditions Possible With Convection


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-24-2007 10:04 AM

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a east wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - lsufan - 09-24-2007 01:16 PM

Been pretty much off and on sprinkles down here. Most of it staying to our east and north to BATON ROUGE! /kiss/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 09-25-2007 06:54 AM

Don't go outside this morning unless you have gills. The air is so liquid and still you can't breathe! (St Tammany Parish, LA)


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-25-2007 09:01 AM

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%