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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-08-2007 08:05 AM

fxus64 Klix 080852
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
352 Am Cdt Sun Jul 8 2007

.short Term...
Boundaries Abound Over The North Central Gulf This Morning. Main
Trough Axis Extends Out From About Destin Beach Fla To The Central
Gulf. Another Trough Is Located From About Pensacola To Southern
Terrebonne Parish. The Next Weak But Evident Density Boundary Is
Located From Pensacola To New Orleans And Westward. This Third
Boundary Extends Into What Will Become The Next Area Of Disturbed
Weather For Today. We Should Begin To See Ts Errupting Over The Se
Tx Area And Move East Along This Density Boundary. Current
Thinking Is This Area Of Ts Should Move Eastward Then Hit A
Strongly Subsident Dry Column Over Southern Mississippi. This Is
The Reason For The Higher Pop Numbers To The West.

Pop Numbers Are Lowered To The East Due To Strong Short Wave
Ridging. This Short Wave Ridge Is Currently Located Along And East
Of The Sabine/toledo Bend Res Area And Is Moving East Slowly
Replacing The Same Ground Behind The Sfc Low Over Ala. The Ridging
Should Keep Much Of The Ts Activity Tied Up To The West And East
Of It. By Evening...stability Will Be Strong Leading To Quickly
Decaying Ts Acitivity. If Any Ts Continue Into The Night Hours Is
Will Be From Some Preformed Outflow Boundary Since Lift For Any Ts
Development Will Have To Start At About 925mb.

.long Term...
Another In A Line Of Unusual Summer Frontal Boundaries Will Visit
The Deep South By The End Of The Week.




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-09-2007 08:02 AM

fxus64 Klix 090859
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
359 Am Cdt Mon Jul 9 2007

.short Term...
A Sharp Upper Trough Extending From Missouri To Ne Texas This
Morning Will Help In Promoting Ts Development Today. Moderate
Vorticity Maxima Continue To Move Through The Base Of The Upper
Trough And Eject Eastward Over The Area. As The Trough Is Slow To
Move East...so Will Be The Ts Probabilities. Another In A Line Of
Disturbances Can Be Seen This Morning Over Se Texas Again...this
Sounds Like A Broken Record. Coupled With Daytime Heating...we
Should See Another Round Of Ts Get Started By Late Morning West
And South And By Afternoon Elsewhere.

Profiles Are Pointing Toward A Few Of These Ts Becoming
Severe Today And Possibly Tuesday As Well. The Locally Run Ros
Model Is Showing Strongest Potential During The Obvious Time Frame
Of 18 To 24z. But Over The Last Few Days Numbers Were Not As High
As They Are On Current Runs. Will Add Isolated Severe Ts Possible
In Hwo This Morning. Ark Vil Numbers Will Have To Reach 70g/kg For
3/4" Hail. Ri Numbers Support .40" And 45kt Wind Gusts With
Strongest Convection Today. Frequent Lightning Will Also Be A
Problem With Most Ts Today But We Are Not Finding Evidence To
Support A Tornadic Atmosphere.

.long Term...
Models Continue To Paint Another Cold Front Moving Into The Deep
South By The End Of This Week. Will Continue Diurnal Fluctuation
In Pop Numbers Until Then.



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-10-2007 05:38 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 100931
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
431 Am Cdt Tue Jul 10 2007

.short Term...
Upper Trough Is Stubborn To Move East...or Atleast Far Enough To
Decrease Pop Numbers Significantly. But The Current Upper Trough
Will Weaken As Another Stronger Trough Moves Into The Southern
Plains Today Through Wed. This Will Only Help Keep Pop Numbers In
The Scattered Category Each Day With A Diurnal Fluctuation...with
The Exception Of Coastal Locations Which Will See Nocturnal Marine
Sh/ts Move Onshore By Late Night Early Morning Hours. Ts Activity
Is Not Expected To Be Severe Today With Only Moderate Numbers
Pointing To An Isolated Strong Ts With A Max Of 38 Knot Wind Gusts
For Btr. By The Time One Gets To Gpt This Numbers Drops To 30 Knots.

.long Term...
Another Even Stronger Surging Upper Trough Moves Into The Southern
Plains By Thursday With A Sfc Reflecting Cold Front. Any Time We
See Cold Fronts Move Into The Subtropics This Time Of Year...it Is
Not Only Unusual But Can Make For Some Nasty Weather As Well. As
Winds Parallel The Front With Height...it Will Slow And Eventually
Come To A Halt Along The Coast. This Will Reinforce The Ts
Coverage By Deeping The Moisture And Providing A Better Focus For
Ts Development Over The Weekend.




New Orleans Local Weather thread - DXstorm - 07-12-2007 10:20 AM

000 Fxus64 Klix 120926 Afdlix Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans La 426 Am Cdt Thu Jul 12 2007 .discussion... The Evening 00z Klix Sounding Showed A Low Level Westerly Flow...with A Precipitable Water Value Of 1.85 Inches. Mid Level Dry Air Should Continue To Filter Across The Area Today. The Latest Surface Analysis This Morning Shows The Frontal Boundary Stretched Roughly From Mccomb To Montgomery Alabama To Atlanta Georgia. For Our Forecast Area...this Is About As Far South As It Will Push Before Losing Its Defining Characteristics. However...the Old Boundary May Be Enough To Trigger Some Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms Today. Given The Mid Layer Dry Air And Temperatures In The Mid 90s...there Is The Potential For An Isolated Pulse Severe Thunderstorm. Damaging Winds Would Be The Main Threat. Again...the Best Potential Lies Across The Northern Portion Of The Forecast Area Where The Gfs Is Advertising Cape Values Greater Than 5000 J/kg With Lifted Indices Of -11. One More Thing To Note For Today...with Temperatures In The Mid 90s And Dew Points In The Lower To Mid 70s...afternoon Heat Indices Will Climb To Around 105 Degrees. Those Who Are Sensitive To The Heat And Those Who Are Working Outside Should Take The Appropriate Precautions. Rain Chances Begin To Creep Back Up Friday With The Old Washed Out Frontal Boundary Still In Place Across The Southeast. Precipitable Water Values Climb Above The 2.00 Inch Mark As The Atmospheric Column Begins To Moisten Up Again. The Deep Trough Over Canada Tries To Push Another Surface Boundary Through The Gulf Coast Region Saturday. This One Should Also Stall And Wash Out Somewhere In The Vicinity Of The Northern Part Of The Forecast Area. The Last Few Runs Of The Gfs Want To Take A Bit Of Energy And Form An Upper Low Over The Arklatex Region. Will Keep An Eye On This Feature As We Get Closer To The Weekend. However...with Increasing Moisture And A Stalled Boundary Across The Region...above Normal Rain Chances Are On Tap For The Weekend Into Early Next Week. &&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - DXstorm - 07-13-2007 08:21 AM

000 Fxus64 Klix 131026 Afdlix Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans La 526 Am Cdt Fri Jul 13 2007 .discussion... The Stalled Out Surface Boundary Along With A Passing Weak Upper Level Disturbance Will Make For Another Rainy Day Today. Thunderstorms Should Begin Developing Around Noontime And Will Be Most Numerous Over The Central And Eastern Portions Of The Forecast Area. An Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Will Be Possible As We Have A High Cape Environment In Place. However...the Main Threats Will Be Frequent Cloud To Ground Lightning And Locally Heavy Rainfall. Given The Westerly Flow...temperatures Should Climb Into The Lower 90s Before Convection Begins. The Weather Pattern Over The Next Several Days Remains Quite Unsettled. Another Surface Boundary Should Stall Along The Gulf Coast Over The Weekend...keeping Up The Chances For Showers And Thunderstorms. Models Continue To Form An Upper Low Somewhere Over Texas Early Next Week. There Is Some Uncertainty As To Exact Timing And Placement Of This Feature. However...the Low Along With The Old Boundary...should Keep Us In A Wet Pattern Through Mid Week. By Then...the Upper Low Will Retreat To The West As The Subtropical Ridge Builds West Over The Gulf Again...returning Us To A More Typical Summertime Pattern. 92/jss &&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - DXstorm - 07-14-2007 08:38 AM

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 88. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - DXstorm - 07-16-2007 07:51 AM

Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through This Afternoon... The Flood Watch Continues For * Portions Of Southeast Louisiana And Southern Mississippi... Including The Following Areas...in Southeast Louisiana... Ascension...assumption...east Baton Rouge...east Feliciana... Iberville...livingston...lower Jefferson...lower Lafourche... Lower Plaquemines...lower St. Bernard...lower Terrebonne... Orleans...pointe Coupee...st. Charles...st. Helena...st. James...st. John The Baptist...st. Tammany...tangipahoa... Upper Jefferson...upper Lafourche...upper Plaquemines...upper St. Bernard...upper Terrebonne...washington...west Baton Rouge And West Feliciana. In Southern Mississippi...amite... Han****...harrison...jackson...pearl River...pike...walthall And Wilkinson. * Through This Afternoon * A Slow Moving Upper Level Disturbance Near The Sabine River Continues To Reside In A Moist Airmass Today. Low Level Winds Have Increased Off The Gulf Into Central Louisiana Causing Moisture And Instability To Increase. A New Round Of Thunderstorms Continue To Develop This Morning Over Coastal Louisiana. This Area Of Thunderstorms Will Move Into Interior Sections Of Southeast Louisiana And Then Into Southern Mississippi. Most Areas Should See Total Accumulations Of 1 To 2 Inches Of Rainfall Today With Some Localized Totals As High As 5 Inches Possible. Grounds Are Saturated And Ponding Of Water Can Result From A Relatively Small Accumulation Of Around 1 Inch In A Short Duration. * The Primary Impacts From Flooding Will Be Ponding Of Water In Low Lying And Poorly Drained Areas. Some Small Creeks And Streams May Swell To Flood Levels And Roadside Ditches Can Fill Quickly. Most Larger Rivers Are Currently Well Below Flood Stages But May Experience Elevated Levels In The Upcoming Days As Heavy Rains Fall Over Respective River Basins. A Flood Watch Means There Is A Potential For Flooding Based On Current Forecasts. You Should Monitor Later Forecasts And Be Alert For Possible Flood Warnings. Those Living In Areas Prone To Flooding


New Orleans Local Weather thread - DXstorm - 07-17-2007 08:07 AM

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - DXstorm - 07-18-2007 08:05 AM

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
412 Am Cdt Wed Jul 18 2007

.short Term...
Moisture Depth Will Be The Problem With Ts Formation For The Next
24 Hours. Pw Values Have Slipped Below 2" Until Late Tonight When
Pw Values Will Surge Back To Or Above 2". Where Will The Moisture Be
Coming From? Quite Simple...a Deep Tropical Moisture Axis Located
From Sabine Pass To 27.25n 92.25w To Tampa Fla Will Continue To
Move Northward. This Deeper Moisture Will Replace The Temporary
Dry Air That Came In From The Ridging To The East.

Another Cold Front That Will Move This Way Is Currently Stalled
Roughly From Ohio Through North Dakota. The Best Way To Find This
Boundary Is By The Ts Activity Being Generated Along It This
Morning. The Front Will Get Reactivated Today As A Strong Densely
Packed Dry Air Region Currently Moving South Out Of Northern
Canada...reinforces The Cold Front Causing It To Race Toward The
Deep South. The Front Should Make Its Way Into The Region By
Saturday Morning. What Does This All Mean?

First We Will See Ts Activity Increase Due To Deeper Tropical
Moisture Moving Into The Region For Thursday Through Friday. By
Saturday...the Cold Front Will Give Extra Lift To The Moist Deep
Unstable Tropical Airmass Ahead Of It. This Should Help Send Pop
Numbers Quite High By The Weekend. Attm We Are Advertising Pop
Numbers In The High Chance Category Fri Night Through The Weekend.
These Are Likely To Increase As We Close In On This Scenario. For
This Reason We Have Increased Numbers By 10% Across The Board For
That Time Period.

.long Term...
Once The Cold Front Moves Into The Area...the Question Becomes
Where Will It Stall? Once This Is Known...the Answers Get A Little
Easier For All Other Variables. For Now We Are Leaving The
Extended Fcast As Is Past Sunday.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - DXstorm - 07-19-2007 10:36 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 191520 AAAAFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1020 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO THE SOUTH OFTHE INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE SURGE A LITTLE QUICKER ANDMORE ROBUST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER THISMORNING WAS 1.52 AT LIX...BUT 2.21 AT LCH.A SECOND UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED LATER IF CIRRUS DECK OVER THE AREADOES NOT BEGIN THINNING OUT SOON. IF CIRRUS REMAINS...HIGHTEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED A CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKETRIGGER TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 80S IS WORKING OUT OK.&&.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007/SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL DOMINATE THEFORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIERAIRMASS ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. AS ARESULT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOWERED POPSDOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. GOING INTOTOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE...AS A STRONG UPPERLEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIGSOUTHWARD. THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A 80 KNOTJET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE JETSTREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL DIVE INTO THECAROLINAS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSSTHE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BYSATURDAY. ALSO BY FRIDAY...AS SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUESTO INCREASE...AND THUS INCREASE POPS BACK TO CHANCE CATEGORY.CHANCE POPS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AS STRONG POSITIVEVORTICITY ADVECTION AND HIGHER OMEGA VALUES BUILD INTO THE AREA INADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH. BY SATURDAY...POPS WILL INCREASE TOLIKELY...AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE WARM AND TROPICAL AIRMASSIN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEPOSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BENEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONSATURDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL EXPECTED.LONG TERM...GOING INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFTNORTHEASTWARD...BUT A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTENDACROSS THE GULF SOUTH INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOWAND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACEACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALLALONG THE COAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.WITH THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS ALOFT...EXPECT ONLY LOW ENDCHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERSOVER THE AREA...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ON THE TAILEND OF THE TROUGH IN TEXAS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARNORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THEAREA BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS WILLDEEPEN. THUS...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THECWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP RAPIDLY. WITHTHIS DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND AMPLE DAYTIMEHEATING...CHANCE POPS CAN CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THISTIME...SO MOST CONVECTION WILL BE INDUCED ALONG SEABREEZEBOUNDARIES...AND PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OVERALLTEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.