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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-25-2007 08:08 AM

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-25-2007 05:26 PM

Special Marine Warning
Gmz530-252315-
/o.new.klix.ma.w.0116.070625t2217z-070625t2315z/

Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans La
517 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 25 2007

The National Weather Service In New Orleans Has Issued A

* Special Marine Warning For...
Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas
Including The Mid Point Of The Causeway Bridge...

* Until 615 Pm Cdt

* At 513 Pm Cdt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated
A Cluster Of Strong Thunderstorms...producing Gusty Winds Over 35
Knots 19 Miles Southwest Of The Mid Point Of The Causeway
Bridge...or About 8 Miles Northwest Of Kenner...moving Northeast
At 15 Kt.

Thunderstorms Can Produce Sudden Waterspouts. Waterspouts Can Easily
Overturn Boats And Create Locally Hazardous Seas. Seek Safe Harbor
Immediately.

Lat...lon 3011 9042 3006


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-25-2007 10:10 PM

fxus64 Klix 252102
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
402 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 25 2007

.short Term...
Copious Moisture Over The Region In A Tropical Airmass Will Likely
Maintain Nocturnal Convection Tonight And Persistent Temperatures
And Pops For Tuesday And Wednesday Before Anything Changes Enough
To Warrant An Alteration. Went Closer To Gfs Temps But Not As High
As Gfs Pops.

.long Term...
Bermuda Ridge Extension Still Seems To Build Westward For The
Latter Part Of The Week And Through The Weekend. This Should Bring
Near Normal Temperatures In The Lower 90s And Near Normal Pops
Around 30-40 Percent During The Daytime And 20 Percent Overnight
From Thursday Onward.

&&

.aviation...
Downburst From Scattered Convection May Cause Local Gusts To 40kt
In The Vicinity Of The Terminals. Otherwise...enroute Weather To
Points Westward Will Be Affected By Better Than Average Convective
Coverage. Mvfr And Tempo Ifr Visibilities In Rainfall As Well As
Mvfr Ceiling In Thunderstorms Through Tuesday Morning.




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-27-2007 12:16 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 262049AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA349 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007.SHORT TERM...TODAY HAS BEEN LESS THAN ADVERTISED WITH EXTENSIVEHIGH CLOUD COVER INHIBITING INSOLATION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ANDEARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BERMUDA RIDGEEXTENSION BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA INTO ALABAMA WITH SOMESHEAR ZONE INDICATED FROM WEST TENNESSSEE TO THE WESTERN FLORIDAPANHANDLE. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE CWA...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLE TO INITIATE THUSFAR...THOUGH THERE STILLIS ANOTHER 4 HOURS OF DAYLIGHT TO WORK WITH. MEANWHILE...STRONGMCS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED BY VORTICITYDROPPING OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES IN THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. FOROUR AREA...WE ARE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS AND UNCERTAIN WHY THECOVERAGE IN THE FORECAST AREA WAS SO SPARSE. WHILE COLUMN DRYINGMOVES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND MOISTURE CHANNELS DEEPER TOTHE WEST...WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN AN UNCERTAIN COVERAGE DAY ONCEAGAIN. WILL INDICATE 50 PERCENT INLAND AREAS AND 30 PERCENT IN THELOWER PORTIONS AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR MODELGUIDANCE LOOK FINE AS WELL..LONG TERM...COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOW TOMOVE INTO THE GULF STATES...AND LIKELY TO STALL NORTH OF THEFORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY MAY GETCLOSE ENOUGH HOWEVER TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SOMECOMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN AN OTHEWISE MUGGY TROPICAL AIRMASS.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE TYPICAL SEABREEZE/BERMUDA HIGHTYPE COVERAGE BUT INCREASING TO HIGHER POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITHTHE FRONT SETTLING INTO THE REGION.&&.AVIATION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VFR EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFRVISIBILITIES IN LIGHT MORNING RADIATIOAL FOG NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVEREMOVED THUNDER FOR TERMINALS TODAY BUT STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCEFOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGBUT BELOW TEMPO CRITERIA.&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-29-2007 07:52 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 290829
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
329 Am Cdt Fri Jun 29 2007

.discussion...

Early This Morning There Was An Upper-level Trough/low Over The
Southern Plains With A Bermuda High Dominating The Southeastern
States. Convection Today Will Be Mainly Isolated To Scattered
With Daytime Heating. A Boundary Will Settle Southward Into The
Area Over The Weekend...increasing Convection For The Early Part
Of Next Week.

.aviation...

Isolated To Scattered Thunderstorms Will Be The Only Concern Today.

&&



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-03-2007 12:03 AM

Overnight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Independence Day: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. North wind around 5 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-04-2007 08:19 AM

afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
417 Am Cdt Wed Jul 4 2007

.short Term...
Radar Indicating What Appears To Be Combination Land
Breeze And Frontogenetic Forcing Linear Convection From About 60
Miles South Of Mobile Bay To Lower Atchafalaya Bay Into A Large
Conglomeration Of Thunderstorms Off The Upper Texas Coast. All Of
This Is In Response To Cut-off Low Pressure Stack Over Texas Which
Has Been Persistent And Should Remain Persistent For Yet Another
5 To 7 Days. Our Area Continues To Be More Barotropic In Column
Structure Which Means Lower Convective Temperatures And Efficient
Rainfall Processes Once Convection Onsets. Upper Level Ridging
Should Yield Slow Moving Storms This Afternoon With Frequent
Lightning And Locally Heavy Rainfall The Main Concerns. Will
Maintain The 60 Percent Chance Of Thunderstorms Today Over Land
Areas And A Slightly Cooler Afternoon With Highs Probably Topping
Out In Upper 80s...though A Few Places May Reach 90. Convection
Should Carry Into The Evening Hours Before Tapering Off By
Midnight. Will Play Same Scenario One More Time On Thursday.

.long Term...
Although The Synoptic Pattern Does Not Change Much...persistent
Troughing Along The Eastern Seaboard...large Amplitude Ridging
Over The Desert Southwest And Intermountain Region...our Area
Should See A General Decrease In Afternoon Thunderstorm Coverage.
Will Go More Inline With Climate Pops Of 30 Percent During The
Days And 20 Percent Evening And Overnight Pops For Friday Through
Tuesday. Large Atlantic High Currently Displaced Into The Central
And Eastern Atlantic Should Be Able To Ridge Westward Enough To
Impart Sea-breeze Regime During Long Term Portion Of
Forecast...but Keeping Hyper-wet Pattern Entrenched Over The
Southern Plains States Through Early Next Week.

Nam Is Indicating A Surface Reflection Of Upper Low Pressure
System Currently Over The Southeast Gulf Of Mexico To Take On A
Life And Meander Over The Warm Loop Current For This Weekend.
Synoptically Speaking...this Is A Favorable Pattern For Such A
Situation...but The Nam Seems To Have The Downward Translation
Misplaced Too Far North From Current Satellite Indications. Gfs
And Ngm Show Some Weak Surface Feature Moving Westward Across The
Florida Peninsula Into The East Gulf But Does Not Enhance The
Feature As Much As Nam Does. This Will Have To Be Monitored Over
The Next Few Days For Low Confidence Prospects Of Possibly
Developing Into Something More Meaningful. Col Currently Over The
East Gulf Would Make Any Development Slow To Occur But Warm And
Deep Heat Content Of The Loop Current Garners Some Respect.

&&




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-05-2007 06:25 AM

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-06-2007 05:35 AM

fxus64 Klix 060905
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
405 Am Cdt Fri Jul 6 2007

.short Term...
If Current Trends To The West Of Our Area Are Any Indications Of
The Weather Today...then It Should Be Another Wet Day. An Mcs
Moving Across Southwest Louisiana Has Much Of Acadiana Covered In
Thunderstorms With A General Northeastward Movement With The
Entire Area. The Lead Edge Is Moving Across The Atchafalaya Basin
And Is Not Far Away From Entering The Greater Baton Rouge Area.
This Is All In Response To Persistent Low Pressure Center That Has
Been Over Texas And Trying To Nudge Eastward Today.
Meanwhile...drier Air In The Lower To Mid Levels Have Invaded The
Forecast Area From The East Where Lower Dewpoints Are Found. While
Much Of The Area Should See Convection Today...will Indicate A
Gradient Of 90 Percent In The West...tapering To 50 Percent Along
The Mississippi Coast And Near The Alabama Line. Once Again An
Efficient Rainfall Process Can Put Down A High Accumulation In
Places In A Short Time.

Ran The Precipitation Calculator Off The Gfs 00z Sounding For The
12 Hour Time Step At Baton Rouge. Using A 347k Lift From 925 Mb.
This Matches Quite Well With Ongoing Precipitation Area. Output
Pops Is Underplayed Again At 29 Percent But Local Ros Output
Utilizing The Technique Math On A Different Vertical Scheme Yields
90 Percent. Precipitation 2.69 Inches With Potential 4.71 Inches
For Temps Below 77f. No Severe Potential Indicated With Gusts At
22-28 Kt. Ricks Index 78 Is Good For Waterspouts Over Area Lakes
And Waterways. Using The Technique On The 00z Klch Sounding
Yielded 5.05 To 7.22 Inches Of Precipitation And This May Haver
Occurred Along The Coast Overnight.

Temperatures Will Also Have A Gradient Of Mid 80s Where Rainfall
Should Start Early West To The Upper 80s East. Will Go Near Gfs
Guidance Values Tonight Through Saturday Night.

.long Term...
Much Anticipated Bermuda High Ridging Westward Should Take Place
Over The Weekend And Become The Predominant Feature For The
Remainder Of The Forecast Package. This Should Impart Near
Climatology Pops And Temperatures.




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-07-2007 12:05 AM

  • Area Forecast Discussion

    000FXUS64 KLIX 062015AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA315 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN OVER TEXASWAS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.THIS...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTOTHE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO MOSTLYSCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR PCWA THIS AFTERNOONINTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGHAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULDDIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTEREDCONVECTION AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND PULLS INTO THESOUTHEASTERN STATES. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK RIDGING SHOULDBUILD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING.25&&.AVIATION...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS SUPPRESSED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY.AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN THE UPPER 80S...SOME ISOLATED TSRAHAS FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST MS AND SOUTHEAST LA...WITH SCATTERED TSRAALONG THE MS COAST. SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAY YET OCCUR THEREMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTSTHROUGH 00Z. AM FORECASTING A THIRD NIGHT OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ATMCB STARTING AROUND 06Z...OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTEDTO PREVAIL TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF RAIN/TSRA AREAS. SOME MVFR CIGS ANDVSBYS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY MORNING AS ANY STRATUS AREAS BURN OFFAND CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP. SCATTERED TSRA AND ASSOCIATED LOWCIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY LOOKS BETTER WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIONEXPECTED. 22&&.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSUREPASSING NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS TOINCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE LOWWILL MOVE WELL EAST INTO GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TODECREASE BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 22&&&&