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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-17-2007 10:11 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 170838
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
338 Am Cdt Sun Jun 17 2007

.short Term...
Weak Suppression Down To 700mb Will Be Seen Today Ahead Of The
Deep Tropical Moisture Headed This Way From The Se Gulf. The Area
Of Deep Moisture Is Identified Best By 2+" Pw Values. The Leading
Edge Is Located From Sw Fla To About 80 Miles North Of The Yucatan
Moving Nw At ~15kts. The Atmosphere Should Change Abruptly During
The Early Morning Hours Monday From Relatively Dry To Wet Shortly
After Daybreak. Nocturnal Thermals Should Be Seen First Advancing
Toward The Coast Late Tonight Falling Onshore Starting Early
Monday Morning.

Organized Severe Weather Is Not Expected With This System
But An Isolated Strong Storm Can Not Be Discounted. The Main
Concerns Will Be First...heavy Rainfall And Ofcourse The
Lightning And Gusty Winds Will Follow. Indications Of A Tornadic
Or Hail Producing Environment Are Not Found So Will Leave Mention
Of These Two Out For Now. But...the Very Moist Atmosphere And
Strong Instability With Respect To A Deep Moist Adiabatic Lapse
Rate...with The Lcl Falling To ~700ft...will Be Plenty Enough To
Warrant Waterspout Activity.

.long Term...
Some Global Model Solutions Are Trying To Advertise A Cut Off
Upper Low Sinking Into The Southeast Conus By Mid-week While
Others Show This Upper Trough Lifting Out Causing A Front To Stall
Across Tenn. If A Cut Off Upper Low Forms...it Would Begin To Draw
Drier Continental Air Southward Cutting Off The Rain A Pushing The
Deep Moisture(from 700mb Up) Back Over The Gulf. Since No Agreement
Can Be Made By Long Term Solutions...will Simply Leave Extended As
Is.

&&




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-18-2007 06:09 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 180924
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
424 Am Cdt Mon Jun 18 2007

.short Term...
Deep Tropical Moisture Moving Toward The Area This Morning Is
About 20 Miles South Of Sw Pass Or About 90 Miles South Of New
Orleans. This Will Put The 2+" Pw Values Streaming Into The New
Orleans Metro Area Around 11am And The Btr Metro Area Around 1pm. We
Should Begin To See Numerous Sh/ts Developing By That Time. Then
Comes The Problem.

The Upper Low That Is Ejecting Out Of Tx This Morning Will Find
Itself In Missouri By This Afternoon. While At The Same Time A
Broad Upper Tropical Mt High Will Continue To Build Into The Gulf.
Between These Two Features A Strong Divergent Flow Has Already Set
Up Over The Area. This Can Be Seen In Wv Imagery Fairly Well. Lack Of
Moisture And Bl Lift Is Why Nothing Is Occurring With This
Diffluent Area. But This Will Change. As Heating Begins And The
Deep Moisture Streams Into The Area Ts Will Develop. As The Ts
Help Connect The Sfc Instability To The Excellent Divergent
Jet Dynamics...an Area Of Organized Ts Will Develop And Begin To
Move Ne. Timing Is Around Mid Afternoon For Inialization Of The
Mcs Feature But Placement Is In Question. Attm Belief Is The Area
Will Begin To Form Around The Btr Area And Develop Rapidly As It
Moves E Then Ne. A Tornadic Environment Is Not Seen With This
System But Strong Damaging Winds Are And Eventhough Vils Will Have
To Be Very High To See Hail...there May Be A Chance To Get Some With
The Strongest Storms. Again Placement Of This System Is The
Biggest Challenge Which Could Be Anywhere From Southern Miss To The
Gulf Coast.

With Pw Values Well In The 2" Range...very Efficient Rainfall
Producing Storms Will Evolve Today. So We Can`t Leave Out The
Possibility Of Very Heavy Rainfall Causing Some Light Flooding. All
Storms Will Move Due North At About 15 Knots Most Of The Day And
Ne By Evening. This Motion Should Keep Areas From Receiving A
Tremendous Amount Of Water Unless Several Storms Develop And Move
Over The Same Location. Rainfall That Occurs Today Should Be
Handled Well By The Dry Landmass But As We Move Into Tue And Wed
Many Areas May Become Saturated And Then Additional Rainfall
Becomes A Problem.

.long Term...
Well The Global Suites Continue Their Strange Solutions Toward The
Baroclinicity Over The Eastern Conus. Again Some Want To Eject An
Upper Trough Leaving A Front Stalled Over The Tenn River Valley
While Others Want To Bring A Front Through The Gulf South. An
Upper Low Settling In The Se Conus Is Not Out Of The Question. If
This Happens...then We Will See A Surge Of Dry Continental Air
Move South Pushing The Sh/ts Out To Sea With It. But It Would
Leave The Se To Continue Getting Wet Which By The Looks Of The
Drought For That Area It Wouldn`t Be A Bad Thing. Until The Model
Solutions Define What This Low Will Do After It Settles In The
Se...we Can`t Budge The Mid Or Extended Forecast Attm.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 87 71 86 71 / 70 50 70 40
Btr 87 74 86 74 / 70 40 70 40
Msy 87 75 87 75 / 70 50 70 40
Gpt 86 74 86 72 / 70 50 70 40




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-19-2007 12:43 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 190301AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1001 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007.UPDATE...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS OVER LAND TO 30 PERCENT AND CHANGE TOUNCERTAINTY FROM AREAL COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT ONLY. OUR AREACURRENTLY IN BETWEEN COMPLEXES WITH ONE TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE20...AND THE OTHER OUT OVER THE GULF...WELL SOUTH OF THEATCHAFALAYA RIVER. BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES ARE MOVING EASTWARD.NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW IS WELL BACK OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS...ANDSHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN OUR AREA UNTIL MORNING.BEST AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION...NOT SURPRISINGLY...WILL BE OUT OVERTHE GULF OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK OVER LANDSHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CATEGORICAL POPSFOR TOMORROW. 00Z LIX SOUNDING CAME IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF2.01 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL A PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW.&&.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007/SHORT TERM...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGHWEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERNPLAINS MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS LOW WILLINTERACT WITH A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARDACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CWA TODAY. IN THE UPPERLEVELS...A SPLIT FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED LIFT...AND THUSFURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SPLIT FLOW WILLPERSIST INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOMORROW. DUE TOTHE AMPLE LIFT AND VERY WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HAVE KEPTCHANCE POPS IN FOR THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTHE AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER70S OVERNIGHT.BY TOMORROW...THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...AS THEUPPER LEVEL LOW MERGES WITH A MUCH STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGHPUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGHSWINGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A SURFACE FRONT WILL DIVE INTOLOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALLALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG RIDGINGREMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...A VERY WARM AND MOISTAIRMASS...WITH HIGH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN IN PLACEALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCEALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING IN THE UPPERLEVELS...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER THESOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAYOVER THE CWA. THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TOMORROWINTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACEAT THAT TIME.HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE CWA INTOWEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR IN THEMID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CAPPING AND CONVECTIVEINHIBITION OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS ARESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...DUE TOEXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH MORE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...ASSTRONGER SOLAR INSOLATION TAKES PLACE.LONG TERM...GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILLSETTLE OVER THE CWA...AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELSTAKES HOLD. STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELSWILL CAP OFF MOST CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AMPLELOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND A LINGERINGSTATIONARY FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WEAKIMPULSES ROTATING AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILLALSO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...POSSIBLY SPARKING SOME CONVECTION.AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA THURSDAYAND FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...AS A CAPWILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO BE BROKEN EACH DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEARSKIES AND A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TOSLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.BY SUNDAY...A CHANGE IN PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RIDGE OVERTHE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING FOR DEEPERTROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A COLD FRONT WILLDIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND STALL OVER THE REGIONMONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG SURGE OF DEEPTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH OVERTHE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA. THECOMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE FRONTALBOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP SUNDAYTHROUGH TUESDAY. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER ANDRAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...WITH READINGS FALLINGTO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 73 86 71 92 / 30 80 40 20BTR 74 87 72 94 / 30 80 40 20MSY 76 88 75 89 / 30 80 40 30GPT 76 87 74 91 / 30 80 40 30


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-19-2007 10:06 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 190923
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
423 Am Cdt Tue Jun 19 2007

.discussion...
The Slow Moving Upper Trough Over The Mississippi Valley
Continues To Spark Showers And Thunderstorms Across Northern And
Central Mississippi Early This Morning. This Upper Level
Support...combined With Plenty Of Gulf Moisture And Daytime
Heating...will Allow For Widespread Shower And Thunderstorm
Activity Today. Afternoon Highs Will Be Largely Dependent On
Cloud Cover And Precipitation...but They Should Generally Remain
In The Mid 80s.

This Shortwave Trough Will Get Absorbed By The Advancing Longwave
Trough...which Will Push A Surface Boundary Towards Our Area Over
The Next 24 Hours. All Of The Models Have Come Into Agreement
That This Boundary Should Push Into The Gulf...albeit Maybe A Bit
Fast With The Speed. Have Chose To Gradually Lower Pops As A Drier
Airmass Filters Into The Area On Northerly Flow. Dewpoints Are
Forecast To Be In The 50s And 60s For Thursday And Friday...pretty
Unbelievable For This Time Of The Year!

Dominating High Pressure Will Allow Temperatures To Rebound Back
Into The Lower And Mid 90s Since There Will Not Be Any Seabreeze
Activity. The Ridge Retreats Late In The Weekend Into Early Next
Week. Southerly Flow Returns...and Rain Chances Creep Back Into
The Forecast.




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-19-2007 12:24 PM

This Afternoon: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High near 86. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-21-2007 12:03 AM

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Fxus64 Klix 210308 Aaa
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans La
1008 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 20 2007

.update...
Updated Hourly Temperatures Tonight To Depict A Slower Fall. Also
Updated Dewpoints Tonight Through Friday To Better Match Mav Mos
And Current Trends. Otherwise...forecast Is On Track The Next
Couple Days With Cooler Nights...and Hot Dry Days With Low
Humidity For This Time Of Year.

&&

.aviation...
Some Patchy Late Night/early Morning 4-6 Mile Vsbys In Br/haze Is
Possible. Otherwise...nice Vfr Flying Conditions Will Prevail The
Next 24 Hours With A Near Zero Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms
Due An Unusually Dry Airmass For Late June.

&&



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-22-2007 01:28 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 212006AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA306 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007.SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECASTAREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILLCONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BEEXPECTED...ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES..LONG TERM...GOING INTO SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE...AS THERIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...AND A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOWDEVELOPS OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTSEASTWARD...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEANWILL PULL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THEFORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR STRONG MOISTUREADVECTION TO TAKE HOLD. DUE TO THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...COMBINEDWITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED DIRUNALLYINDUCED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...DEEP TROPICALMOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE UPPERLEVELS...THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVEWILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILLSTALL OVER TEXAS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACEACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AMPLECLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILLREMAIN IN PLACE...BUT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PULL NORTHWARD INTOTHE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE WILLREMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THIS MOISTURE STILL INPLACE...AND TEMPEATURES CLIMBING BACK TO NORMAL...MROE DIURNALLYFORCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY...A STRONG TROUGH WILLDIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A TROUGH AXISTHROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO THEWEEKEND.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-23-2007 06:53 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 230932
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
432 Am Cdt Sat Jun 23 2007

.short Term...
From Today On...we Should See More Moisture Gathering Beneath The
Upper Mt High Centered Near Ne Mexico. A Weak Upper Trough Is
Located Over The Eastern Gulf.

The Deep Moisture Line Located From The Nw Yucatan To The Fla Keys Is
Moving This Way At About 15 Knots. The Line Will Reach Our
Shoreline Early Monday. Heres The Kicker...a Convective Mid To Low
Level Circulation Developed Yesterday Over The Nw Caribbean. This
Can Be Seen With The 3.9-11um Sat Imagery Located At About 19.2n
84.2w. The Very Weak Circulation Was In An Area Conducive To
Development Yesterday And Early This Morning. But Today It Will
Move Nw Into A Very Inhospitable Area As It Subducts The Upper
Trough Over The Eastern Gulf. We Should Then See This Large Area
Circulation Fairly Well As It Harmlessly Move Nw Across The Gulf.
The Line Of Deep Moisture And The Small Circulation Are Headed Nw
At About 15 Knots With The Little Swirl Around 12 Hours Behind.

The Reason We Are Mentioning This Is Due To The Gfs Solution In
Developing A Large Area Of Qpf Over The Btr Mcb Areas By Monday
Evening. The Gfs Has Been Showing This As A Trend For Three
Consecutive Runs And When Looking Where This Disturbance Is
Coming From...it Looks To Be The Little Disturbance Behind The
Leading Moisture Line. The Gfs Is Showing The Leading Edge Of Deep
Moisture Moving Ashore Monday Morning And 12 Hours Later Brings
The Small Circulation Into Shore. The Problem Is That For The Most
Part Of Its Path Across The Gulf...the Atmosphere Is Hostile And
Shear Profiles Do Not Support Development. But This Changes As The
Area Begins To Subduct The Upper Mt High Which By That Time Will
Have Ridged Well Into The Central Gulf Coast. The Gfs Shows This
Very Well In Trying To Quickly Develop The System As It Is Barely
Offshore By Monday Morning Through Afternoon. But All Is Too Late
As The Area Moves Onshore Before Significant Deepening Can Occur.

Model Solutions Change Quite A Bit Over Time And This Will Be No
Exception. But The Gfs Is Initializing Fairly Well This Morning.
The Biggest Concern By Monday Evening And Tuesday Is With Rainfall
Amounts If This Scenario Occurs Like Advertised. The Fact Is The
System Is Several Days Out And A Lot Can Change By Then So We Will
Simply Slip Pop Numbers Up By 10% For Monday Night For This. But
Will Leave Any Categorical Pops To Be Determined By Later Shifts
As We Get Closer To The Time.

.long Term...
Upper Mt High Will Stay Over The Area Through Much Of The Week
Keeping A Daily Chance Of Sh/ts.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 93 70 89 72 / 10 10 30 30
Btr 93 73 90 74 / 20 10 30 30
Msy 91 75 89 76 / 20 20 30 30
Gpt 91 73 87 77 / 10 10 30 30




New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-24-2007 03:39 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 240305 AAAAFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1005 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERLAND...BUT AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IS NEAR THETERREBONNE PARISH COAST AND OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEMOST LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHERE WATERTEMPERATURES ARE NOW AVERAGING THE MID 80S. A FEWSHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERSOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...OR MOVE IN FROM THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANTCHANGES ARE NEEDED.&&.AVIATION...THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT TWODAYS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE RADARSCREEN. MOSTLY VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NOONSUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME 4-6 MILE VSBYS IN BR/HAZE LATE TONIGHTINTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREEXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH SEAAND LAKE BREEZES AND A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE JUSTWEST OF THE AREA.&&.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007/SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWEDPRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1 INCH AT LIX...BUT 1.75 AT LCH. CLOUD COVERHAS TRANSLATED EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING...AND ISOLATEDCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. TEMPERATURESGENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOST AREAS SEEING DEWPOINTSUPPER 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT EXTREME WEST...WHERE THEY ARE IN THELOWER 70S. BTR DEWPOINT UP 7 DEGREES IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.SHORT TERM...FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLYDRIVEN...IN OTHER WORDS...SCATTERED CONVECTION...GENERALLY BETWEEN2 PM AND 10 PM. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THISMOISTURE WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR AVAILABLE FOR POTENTIAL WINDPROBLEMS.ENERGY THAT MOVES PAST US TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ANTICYCLONICALLY MOVETHROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND APPROACH THE AREA AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTOTUESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY ANDTUESDAY...GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ABOUT DOING SO. NAM PRODUCES ABOUT1 INCH OF RAIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS HAS8.5 INCH MAX OVER WASHINGTON PARISH LOUISIANA BY THE SAME TIME. GFSAPPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT THIS IS4 RUNS IN A ROW THAT THIS MODEL HAS SIGNALED A HEAVY RAIN EVENTFOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SO I WON`T DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY.FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE FOR SUNDAY ANDSUNDAY NIGHT...THEN 40 TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS ABOUTIN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE POPS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL HEAVY RAININ THE HWO.WILL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWONIGHTS...AS MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL EACH NON-CONVECTIONNIGHT OVER THE PAST WEEK. WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FORHIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.LONG TERM...NOT REAL TRUSTING OF 12Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A VERY HIGHAMPLITUDE RIDGE...AND TROFS TO OUR NORTH. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL TO HAVESTRONG UPPER LOWS OVER MAINE AND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. IFAMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONTALPASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT NOT COUNTING ON THAT YET. ECMWFACTUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. AFTER TUESDAY`S SYSTEM MOVESTHROUGH...WE SHOULD RETURN TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY THE ENDOF THE WORKWEEK.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-24-2007 07:26 AM

  • 000
    Fxus64 Klix 240909
    Afdlix

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans La
    409 Am Cdt Sun Jun 24 2007

    .short Term...
    Mid And Upper Air Analysis Continue To Show A Trough Axis From
    Illinois To East Texas And Ridge Axis From Florida To East Tennessee. In
    Addition...infrared Satellite Imagery Showed A Cloud Mass Over
    Northwest And West Gulf Just Ahead Of The Trough Axis. Slidell
    Sounding Saturday Evening Revealed A Pw Value Around 1.35 Inch.
    South To Southwest Flow Was Located From Surf To 700mb...dry Layer
    From 700 To 500mb. Flow Will Become Southwest From 850mb To 300mb
    And Pw Value Increases Today. Goes Sounder Displayed Dry Air East
    Of Mississippi And Parts Of East Gulf. In Addition...gfs And Eta
    Show A 5h High Developing Over Central Gulf Creating West To
    Southwest Flow Over Central Gulf Coast For Monday. This Flow
    Should Tap This Deep Moisture Layer Over West Gulf. Gfs Has Pw
    Values Of 2.1 Inches Over The Forecast Area Monday...while Eta
    Higher Pw Values Are Over East Texas Monday. Will Increase Pops
    Slightly Higher To 50 Percent For Now...will Need Another Run To
    Go Likely Monday And Tuesday. In Addition...will Hedge Slightly
    Below Gfs High Temps Today Through Tuesday.

    .long Term...
    High Over Gulf Will Break Down And Moist Flow Axis Will Be
    Displaced North. Will Maintain Chance Pops Wednesday Through Sat.
    Gfs Deepens A Trough Over The East Coast And Bring A Front Through
    The Area Late Saturday. Will Maintain Near Normal Pops And Temps
    Over Next Weekend For Now.

    &&