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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 03-30-2007 06:39 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
316 Am Cdt Fri Mar 30 2007

.short Term...
Surface High Parked Over South Carolina With Upper Ridge Axis Over The
Cwa. This Should Hold In Place For About 24 More Hours Before Things
Start To Change. Upper Low Is Currently Over The Four Corners Area
Of The Rockies...with Surface Low Near Omaha. Upper Low Will Move
Northeast Into The Dakotas By Saturday Night. This Will Allow A
Negatively Tilted Trof To Pass Just North Of The Gulf South
Saturday Night. The Associated Surface Low Will Deepen And Move To
Near Msp By Sunday Morning.

Convection...probably A Squall Line...will Fire Over East Texas Or
Western Louisiana By Mid-afternoon On Saturday And Move Eastward
Across The Area During The Overnight Hours On Saturday Night. Severe
Parameters For This Event Haven`t Changed Too Much From
Yesterday`s Run...so I Am Not Surprised To See Spc Outlook The Entire
Area On Day 2. Capes Around 2000 And Lifted Around -5. Wind And Hail
Main Threats.

Precipitation Should Move Out Of The Area During The Daytime Hours On
Sunday. Expect Most...if Not All...areas To See Rain With This
Event...but It Won`t Do A Lot To Make Up Any Rain Deficits For The
Past Few Months. First 2 Periods Of Forecast Will Be Dry...then
Mid-range Pops Saturday Through Sunday. Temps To Remain Above
Normal...but Probably Tempered By Clouds Somewhat On Saturday And

.long Term...
Monday Will See Us In Between Systems With A Good Bit Of Sun And
Temperatures Above Normal. As Ridge Builds Over The West Coast Of
The Us...northern Stream Systems Will Eventually Grind Down The
Ridge Enough To Allow A Cold Front Into The Area. New Model
Solutions Are About 12 Hours Ahead Of Yesterday`s Runs...bringing
The Cold Front Into The Area Tuesday And Wednesday. This Will Give
Us Another Chance At Rain...and Finally Bring Some Cooler
Temperatures Into The Area For The End Of The Week. If Ecmwf/gfs
Solutions From 00z Run Play Out...temperatures Next Weekend Will
Be 15 To 20 Degrees Cooler Than This Weekend.

New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-02-2007 08:11 AM

Dense Fog Advisory


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-11-2007 06:53 AM

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 83. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60. East wind around 10 mph.

New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-13-2007 07:03 AM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
420 Am Cdt Fri Apr 13 2007

The Main Forecast Concern For This Package Continues To Center
Around The Convection Expected Tonight And Saturday And The
Possibility For Severe Weather During That Time Frame. Overall...
Few Changes Were Made To The Ongoing Forecast Package And Grids
Other Than Slightly Delaying The Onset Of Convection Across The
Area. Although Some Convection Will Affect Mainly The Western Sections
Of The Forecast Area Later Tonight...it Appears That The Majority
Of The Convection And The Greatest Threat Of Severe Weather Will
Be During The Day Saturday. This Will Occur As An Upper Level Low
Now Over The Southwest U.s. Moves East And Opens Up Over The Central
And Southern Plains Before Eventually Phasing With A Northern
Stream Trough To Evolve Into A Full Latitude Trough As It Shifts
East Over The Mississippi Valley. This Trough Will Initially Have
A Positive Tilt...but Will Become More Neutrally Tilted As It
Translates Eastward. A Surface Low Associated With This Potent
Upper Level System Is Forecast To Move Out Of Texas And Move East
In The Vicinity Of The Interstate 20 Corridor Of Louisiana And
Mississippi Late Friday Night And Saturday With An Attendant Cold
Front Traversing The Forecast Area During The Day Saturday. Models
Forecast A Split Upper Level Jet Pattern Resulting In Strong
Divergence Aloft Over The Lower Mississippi Valley From Late
Friday Night Into Saturday With A 50 To 55 Knot 85h Jet Shifting
East Across The Region. Forecast Soundings Indicate Considerable
Instability As Well As Directional And Speed Shear In The Lower
Levels Late Friday Night And Saturday. As A Result...strong To
Severe Convection Will Be Possible During This Period With The Main
Threats Being Damaging Winds And Isolated Tornadoes. In The Wake
Of This System...dry Conditions Will Be On Tap For The Last Half
Of The Weekend And The First Part Of Next Week With Upper Level
Ridging Shifting East Across The Mississippi Valley. The Next
Chance For Precipitation Will Be Tuesday And Tuesday Night As
Another Upper Trough/low Moves Out Of The Western U.s. And
Traverses The Central And Eastern Conus.

New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-13-2007 11:04 PM

Fxus64 Klix 140308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
1008 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 13 2007

Severe Weather Threat Still Underway Over East Texas And West
Louisiana. The Intensity Of The Storms May Be Undergoing A Lull In
The Morning Hours That May Benefit The Forecast Area...timing-
Wise...before Re-intensification Due To Daytime Heating Takes
Place Generally From U.s. 49 Eastward Saturday Afternoon. Latest
National Radar Trends Show The Primary Squall Line Of Activity
Extending From Paris Texas To Near San Antonio. Another Line Of
Train Echo Storms Extend From Little Rock To Naer The Houston
Area. This Line Is Not Making Any Progress Eastward And Will
Probably Wait Until The Western Line Merges With It Overnight.

Timing Of The Strongest Weather Threat For The Forecast
Area...based On A Speed Of 35kt...kbtr 11-13z...khdc/kmcb 12-14z...
Kmsy/knew 14-16z...kgpt/kbix 16-18z..kpql 17-19z.

Ran Pcpn Calculator/ricks Index On Gfs40 18z Run For Kbtr Area
Valid 12z Saturday. Applying 336k Lift From 950mb Yields Pop
47%...pcpn 1.61 Inches...potl Pcpn 4.43 Inches For Temp Less Than
73f. Ricks Index 114...prob Svr Wx 4%...gust 40kt/46mph...hail
Size 0.25 Inches (pea) With A Vil Of 45. Tor Threat Nil. Ar Vil Of
The Day Would Be 53 And Ricks Index Vil Of The Day Would Be 50 To
Get Penny Sized Hail. All This Seems Reasonable Given Limited
Surface Contribution Due To Morning Low Temps. Severity Should Be
On The Increase Farther East In Our Mississippi Coastal Counties
Into Alabama.

No Changes To Zones Or Grids At This Time. Updated Hazardous
Weather Outlook Using Ricks Index Output As Basis. /24/


.prev Discussion... /issued 346 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 13 2007/

Discussion...generally Warm And Tranquil Continues Across The
Area This Afternoon As High Pressure Over The Southeast States
Continues To Work Its Way Into The Atlantic Basin. As This Event
Unfolds... Continued Warm And Increasing Moisture Will Feed Into
The Area In Precursor To The Next Round Of Showers Nd Tstms To
The Foecast. The Models Are Still Hinting At A Strong Surface Low
And Associated Cold Front Out Of The Southern Plains Move Across
The Lower Mississippi Valley Late Fri And Sat. This System Should
Get A Good Surge From A Deepening Upper/trough Swinging Through
The Plains States Sat. The Potential Does Exist For Some Strong To
Severe Storms With The Passage Of The Surface Low. Beyond Late Sat
And Into Sun...cooler...drier And Mild Conditions Should Return To
The Region As Strong High Pressure Rebuilds In The Wake Of The
Passing Cold Front.


.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 63 74 48 68 / 40 70 30 10
Btr 65 75 48 68 / 40 70 20 0
Msy 67 77 54 67 / 30 70 20 0
Gpt 66 77 53 68 / 20 70 40 0

New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-14-2007 05:26 AM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
433 Am Cdt Sat Apr 14 2007

Latest Infrared/water Vapor Imagery Continue To Show The Main
Trough Axis From Minnesota To New Mexico With A Disturbance Over
North Central Oklahoma. Isotach Analysis Showed The Jet Max Of 110
To 130 Knots North Central Texas To Southwest Missouri And Another
Jet Streak From Central Texas East Along The Gulf Coast To
Florida. Convection Was Located From Southeast Texas Across North
Louisiana To North Mississippi...mainly Where The Jets Diverge.
Surface Analysis Revealed A 1005mb Low With Mid 60s Dewpoints As
Far North As Interstate 20. Vad Wind Profile Showed Ssw Winds At
45 Knots At 5kft. Convection Continue To Move Slightly Away From
The Upper Level Disturbance And Cooler Temperature Aloft.
Expecting This Line To Move East This Morning...will Maintain
Severe Wording In North Half Zones For Now. Model Soundings Showed Stm
Hel Around 500 M^2/s^2 06z Sat Descending To 300 M^2/s^2 12z This
Morning As Low Level Winds Become More Southwesterly. As The
Trough Moves East...convection Will Reside Along The Surface
Boundary With The Main Threat Damaging Winds...heavy Rainfall In A
Short Time Period And An Isolated Tornado Or Two. Strong Cold Air
Advection Will Follow Late This Afternoon And Continue Through
Sunday. Another System Will Approach The Area Tuesday Through
Wednesday. Will Maintain Sca Today Through Noon Sunday.

New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-15-2007 07:24 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
352 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 15 2007

.short Term...
Powerful Surface Low Cranking Up Over North Carolina...with
Surface High Over Texas. This Is Keeping A Rather Tight Gradient
Across The Area With Breezy To Windy Conditions This Afternoon.
Skies Are Mostly Clear With Temperatures In The 60s.

Clouds Will Not Be A Forecast Issue Tonight. Overnight Lows Will
Be Rather Chilly...but Exactly How Cold Will Depend On Whether
Winds Completely Decouple Overnight. Dewpoints Generally In The
Middle 30s This Afternoon. If Winds Die Off Completely...we Will
Have Almost Perfect Radiating Conditions. If This Happens It Will
Be Rather Close To Sunrise. Will Keep Overnight Lows Just Above
Current Dewpoints...except The Parts Of New Orleans Metro That
Generally Stay Warmer With Winds Off The Lake. Record Low Will Be
In Danger At Baton Rouge For Monday Morning...39 In 1983...current
Forecast Is For 38. Cannot Rule Out Isolated Frost In The Normally
Colder Areas...but Confidence Not High Enough To Mention In Forecast.

Monday Through The First Half Of Tuesday Will Be Quiet With
Moderating Temperatures. Next System Coming Through Southern
Stream Will Approach Tuesday Afternoon...and Be East Of The Area
By Wednesday Morning. Never Really Establish Significant Moisture
Return Before This System Arrives...so Any Precipitation Expected
To Be Light. Will Go With Chance Pops Tuesday Afternoon And
Tuesday Night And Dry Wednesday.

While Temperatures Will Generally Be Near Or Below Normal Through
Wednesday...after Tonight...they Won`t Be Uncomfortably So.

.long Term...
Extended Forecast Period To Be Rather Quiet...with Most Of The
Significant Weather Action To Be In The Northern Stream...as
Weak Upper Ridge Builds Over The Area. No Precipitation Expected
For Thursday Through Sunday...with Temperatures Near To Slightly
Above Normal.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-18-2007 05:38 AM

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service New Orleans La
533 Am Cdt Wed Apr 18 2007

Han****-pearl River-st Tammany-walthall-washington-
Including The Cities Of...bogalusa...picayune...slidell
533 Am Cdt Wed Apr 18 2007

Numerous Showers Over The Lower Pearl River Valley Will Continue
To Push East This Morning. Light Rain Is Expected To End Between 6 To
7 Am.

New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-21-2007 01:03 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
939 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 20 2007

Another Quiet Night Is On Tap Tonight With Mostly Clear Skies And
Lows In The 50s. No Updates Are Necessary.


.prev Discussion... /issued 411 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 20 2007/

Short Term...
High Pressure At The Surface And Aloft Will Continue To Dominate
Through This Weekend. Satellite And Upper Air Analysis Shows The
Mid And Upper Level Trough Moving East Across The Lower Ms Valley
Which Is Allowing Some Patchy High Level Clouds To Move Across The
Forecast Area. Skies Have Remained Mostly Sunny Today Which
Combined With Dry Air Has Allowed Temperatures To Warm Into The
Upper 70s To Near 80...except Near The Sea Breeze Where The Cool
Gulf Waters Has Dropped Temperatures Back Into The Lower 70s Near
The Coast. Waters Skies Will Remain Mostly Clear To Partly Cloudy
Tonight With Generally Light Winds Coming Around To The East. This
Will Make For Another Pleasantly Cool Night.

As The Surface High Moves Slowly East...winds Will Becoming
Southeast On Saturday Which Will Cause Some Cumulus Clouds To
Develop During The Afternoon. Humidity Will Increase Slightly But
Will Remain In The Comfortable Range. Continued Southeast Winds
Saturday Night And Sunday Will Further Increase Humidity Levels
And Nighttime Temperatures...but Afternoon Highs Will Remain Near
Normal...around 80 Degrees With Cooler Temperatures Near The
Coast. No Rain Will Occur Through Sunday.

Long Term...
The Next Major Weather System Will Move Out Of The Southern
Rockies Into The Plains And Bring Our Area Its Next Chance Of Rain
Around Mid Week. Rain Chances Will Gradually Increase To
Mentionable Values /20 Percent/ In The Northwest Tuesday
Night...then Increase Into The Chance Category From The Northwest
Wednesday Night Into Thursday. Spc Has Outlooked A Severe
Thunderstorm Threat Wednesday And Wednesday Night...and The Models
Suggest The Timing Will Be More Wednesday Night Into Thursday
Morning. Since This Is So Far Away...the Mode...timing...and
Threat Of Severe Weather Will Be Refined As The Weather System
Gets Closer In Time. Right Now...the Associated Cold Front Is
Expected To Move Through The Area Thursday Morning With Drier
Weather Expected By Thursday Night And Friday. This Could Be Short
Lived As Another System May Be On Its Heels For Next Saturday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-24-2007 12:48 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
335 Am Cdt Tue Apr 24 2007

Surface High Currently Off Florida Coast With Surface Low In
Extreme Southeast Colorado. Upper Low In 4 Corners Area. Most Of
The Lower Clouds Are Across Extreme Western Portions Of Cwa.
Current Temperatures Mainly In The 60s Across The Area.

.short Term...
Forecast Problem Of The Day Is Of Course Precipitation Chances.
Models Have Not Really Come Around To A Consensus Solution After
About 36 Hours.

Today Should Pretty Much Be A Carbon Copy Of Monday...although Low
Clouds Don`t Appear To Be Quite As Widespread This Morning. Model
Soundings Still Show Airmass Capped Today...preventing Deep
Convection For Most Of The Area. Could See A Few Shallow Based
Showers In The Marine Layer...but Again...areal Coverage Expected
To Be Very Small...and Light Precipitation Totals If It Occurs At
All. Will Keep Forecast Dry For Today And Tonight...with
Temperatures Similar To The Last 24 Hours.

Expect Strong Convection To Develop/move Across East Texas Tonight
And Western Louisiana During The Day On Wednesday. Both Gfs And
Nam Show Main Convection Approaching The West Edge Of The Cwa
Around 00z Thursday. That Is Where The Models Go Their Separate
Ways. Gfs Brings The System Through During The Night Wednesday
Night. Nam Weakens The Convection Wednesday Evening...and Then
Redevelops Precipitation To Our West During The Afternoon On
Thursday. This Forecast Package Will Trend Toward The Gfs Solution
With A Single Event. Best Dynamics Will Be Well To The North Of
Our Area...but Soundings Do Still Show Some Potential For Severe
Weather Wednesday Evening. Appears To Be Only A 3 To 6 Hour Window
For Potential Severe...with Damaging Winds The Main Threat. Expect
Most Areas To See Measurable Precip In The 18z Wed To 18z Thu
Window...but With Timing Concerns...will Keep Pops In The 50-60
Range For Wednesday Night...and Lower Pops On Both Sides Of That.
Based On Gfs Solution...all Precip Should Be East Of The Area By
18z Thu. Drier Air To Move In Behind This System.

.long Term...
Extended Portion Of Forecast Is No More Clear Cut Than The
Wednesday-thursday Forecast. As Next System Swings Around Upper
Low...gfs And Ecmwf Have Rather Different Solutions. Ecmwf Closes
System Off Over Texas...and Operational Gfs Brings It Across
Arkansas And Mississippi Saturday Night. Compounding The
Problem...the Operational Gfs Appears To Be An Outlier When
Compared With The Gfs Ensemble Data Which Keeps Main Energy To The
North And East. Considering Very Low Confidence In 00z
Solutions...will Keep What We Already Had In The Extended
Forecast...which Is A Dry Forecast For The Weekend.
Hopefully...models Will Start To Merge Toward A Common Solution In
The Next Few Runs.