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New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version +- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com) +-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html) +--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html) +--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html) Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 |
New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-24-2006 11:56 AM Mainly Across Coastalareas. After This Upper Feature Moves Off To The Northeast...adigging Northern Stream Upper Trough/low Will Swing Across Thelower Mississippi Valley Christmas Day And Monday Night Withthicknesses Forecast To Lower Significantly. It Still Appearsthat Most Of The Substantial Moisture Will Have Shifted East Ofthe Area Before Thicknesses Lower Enough For Any Frozenprecipitation. New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-28-2006 09:37 AM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans La 408 Am Cst Thu Dec 28 2006 .discussion... Upper Air Analysis At 5h Continue To Show A Trough From Western Montana To Arizona And Southwest Flow Over South Central And Southeast Conus. Surface Analysis Showed A High Over The Virginia Coast And A Trough Lee Of The Rockies Over Eastern New Mexico. Short Range Models Are Consistent With Bringing The System Through With Very High Pops. However...gfs Is Slightly Faster Than Nam Model. Isotach Analysis Revealed The Jet Max 120 To 130 Knots On The Back Side Of Trough Or Off The California Coast. This Jet Max Is Expected To Rotate Around The Base Of The Trough Friday...placing The Central Gulf Coast Good Divergence. Expecting Surface Winds To Become More Southeast This Afternoon With Surface Dewpoint Readings Approaching 60f Behind By Friday 12z But Ankle Deep. Deep Moisture Is Not Expected Until Friday Night After Midnight Through Sunday 00z With Ample Instability. Deepening Trough Over Central Plains Will Likely Develop Low Level Jet South To North Over East Texas Late Friday Afternoon And Move East Through Early Sat. According To Gfs...llj At 850mb Strengthens To 75 Knots Over Southwest Mississippi. Strong West To Southwest Flow In The Upper Parts Of The Atm Due To The Jet Max...will Send 0-3km Helicity Around 550m^2s^2 By 12z Saturday. All These Features Possibly In Place May Yield Supercells...rotating Storms And Damaging Wind Storms Early Saturday. Storm System Entrain Dry Air On The South Side That Will Likely Diminished Rain Chance Saturday Night. Not Much Cold Air Advection And Pacific System Will Likely Maintain Temps Around Norms For The First Part Of 2007. Dry Forecast Is Expected After Saturday. && .preliminary Point Temps/pops... Mcb 64 53 68 61 / 20 20 30 50 New Orleans Local Weather thread - Christina514 - 12-28-2006 03:36 PM ROLLTIDE Wrote:Area Forecast Discussion Better keep that camera handy... but be safe down that way!! New Orleans Local Weather thread - Hemorhage - 12-28-2006 03:41 PM Man, my people JUST can't CATCH a BREAK!!!! /thumbsdow New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-29-2006 11:24 AM National Weather Service New Orleans La 324 Am Cst Fri Dec 29 2006 .discussion... Early This Morning The Surface Low Was Developing Over West Texas With The Upper Low Over Southwestern New Mexico. Models Continue To Slow The Progression Of The System As It Moves Through Our Area. By This Evening The Eastern Edge Of The Precip Should Be Moving Into The Western Portion Of Our Pcwa. By Mid-day Saturday The Front Should Be Moving Through Western Louisiana With The Upper Low Over Northwest Texas...a 50-60 Knot Low-level Jet Across Southeastern Louisiana...and Helicity Values Possibly Approaching 500 M2/s2. This Will Lead To A Potential For Severe Weather Including Damaging Winds And A Few Tornadoes. Since The System Will Be Slow-moving Through The Area...the Heavy Rainfall Will Lead To A Flooding Threat. Right Now It Looks Like Most Areas Will See 2 To 4 Inches Of Precip With Locally Higher Amounts From Friday Through Sunday Morning. With The Already Saturated Ground...this Could Quickly Lead To Flooding Problems. The Front Should Push Through Our Land Areas Early Sunday...although The Nam Keeps Some Precip Across Our Area Into Monday. We Will Lean More Toward The Gfs Which Pushes The Precip Farther East/south. The Winds Will Be Strong With This System With Strong Southeasterly Winds Continuing Into Saturday Night Across The Coastal Waters. This Will Lead To Tides Above Normal And A Small Craft Advisory. New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-30-2006 08:22 AM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans La 337 Am Cst Sat Dec 30 2006 .discussion... Early This Morning The Surface Low Was Over Western Oklahoma With The Upper Low Over New Mexico. The Cold Front Stretched Southward Along The Texas/louisiana Border With A Warm Front Across Southwestern And South-central Louisiana. This System Will Slowly Progress Eastward Today And Tomorrow. The Precip Water Value Last Night At Lch Was 1.65 Inches...and This Should Increase And Spread Eastward Into Our Area As The Warm Front Pushes Through. The 0-3km Helicity Values Could Be Above 500 M2/s2 In The Area This Afternoon. This...coupled With Divergence Aloft And A Strong 850hpa Jet Over 60 Knots...should Lead To An Active Day For Our Area. The First Round Of Storms Early This Morning Are Associated With The Warm Front Pushing Into Our Area...with The Next Line Near The Cold Front. This Afternoon We Could See Heavy Rainfall...severe Thunderstorms...and Possibly A Few Tornadoes. Although The Rainfall With This System May Not Be As High As With Some Previous Events...the Ground Is Already Saturated In Most Areas And It Will Not Take Too Much To Cause Flooding. Therefor...although The Highest Rainfall Totals In Our Area Likely Will Be From Southwestern/south-central Mississippi Through South-central Louisiana...the Flash Flood Watch Has Been Expanded Across Our Entire Pcwa. 2 To 4 Inches Of Precip Are Likely...with Some Areas Possibly Receiving More Than 6 Inches. The Next Concern Will Be The System That Develops In The Western Gulf And Moves Across Louisiana And Mississippi On Thursday. && New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-02-2007 06:46 PM A Series Of Upper Level Low Pressure Systems Moving Out Of The Desert Southwest United States Toward The Gulf States Will Bring Concerns Of Potentially Heavy And Long Duration Rainfall Mainly On Thursday And Again Sunday. In Both Systems...it Appears A Surface Low Pressure System Will Develop In The Western Gulf Of Mexico And Move Into Louisiana...bringing A Warm Front Onshore And Copious Amounts Of Tropical Moisture From The Lower Gulf Of Mexico. A Tap Of Pacific Tropical Moisture May Also Augment This Situation Aloft...thereby Making Conditions Quite Favorable For Flooding Rains. In Addition...seasonally High Astronomical Tides In Combination With Wind Driven High Tides Can Pose A Coastal Flood Situation That Will Hinder Gravity Drainage Capabilities For Areas Near The Coast Or Within The Lake Pontchartrain Drainage Basins. Though Still Early...current Forecast Models And Guidance Methods Suggest That A General 3 To 5 Inches Of Rainfall Is Possible Beginning Wednesday Night And Continuing Through Friday Morning. Local Heavier Rainfall Totals During This Time Frame May Exceed 8 Inches. The Next System Anticipated For Sunday Can Be Similar In Magnitude. A Potential Accumulation For Both Events May Easily Exceed 10 Inches In Some Locations While Most Locations Could Average Closer To 5 Inches For The Period Wednesday Night Through Monday Morning. Current Hydrologic Conditions Across Southern Louisiana And Southern Mississippi Has Many Rivers And Streams In High Flows Or In Minor Flood At This Time. By Early Thursday...these Rivers And Streams Will Be Either Cresting From Previous Heavy Rains Or On Their Way Down. If The Heavy Rains Materialize As Indicated At This Time...then These Rivers Will Likely Increase To Moderate Flood Levels. Given Uncertainty On Placement Of Heaviest Rains...rainfall Duration...tidal Influences And Other Factors...major Flooding On A Few Streams Can Not Be Ruled Out. A Severe Thunderstorm Threat Is Possible As Early As Wednesday Night Near The Louisiana Coast And Spreading Inland And Eastward During The Day Thursday. Due To Timing Uncertainty With This System...the Actual Time Of Greatest Impacts May Vary. It Is Anticipated That A Warm Front Will Form Offshore And Move Northward Into Louisiana And Southern Missisissippi. Any Thunderstorms Along This Warm Front Will Likely Have Rotating Characteristics Capable Of Producing Tornadoes And Damaging Winds. Everyone In Southeast Louisiana And Southern Mississippi Are Urged To Pay Close Attention To The Latest Forecasts And Statements Issued By The National Weather Service. Suggested Preparation Actions Before The Onset Of The Heavy Rains Include The Cleaning Out Of Ditches And Culverts In Front Of Your Home Or Business. Persons With Property Or Field Equipment Near River Flood Plains Should Consider Moving Them Out Of The River Bottoms At This Time. Municipalities And Local Governments Are Urged To Take Preparedness Measures For Drainage Systems In Anticipation Of Flood Potential. New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-21-2007 01:05 PM This Afternoon: Periods of showers. Temperature falling to around 65 by 5pm. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 48. North wind around 15 mph. Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Tuesday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-23-2007 10:12 AM Fxus64 Klix 231044 Afdlix Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans La 444 Am Cst Tue Jan 23 2007 .short Term... Somewhat Drier Air Will Hold This Morning And Possibly Into The Early Afternoon Hours As A Cool And Dry Push In The Low Levels Has Slided South Into The Forecast Area This Morning. Area Radars Continue To Indicate Some Patchy Light Rain Around...but Most Of This Appears To Be Sprinkles At Most At This Point. An Area Of Surface Low Pressure Or A Wave Is Analyzed Over The West Central Gulf Of Mexico. Southwest To Westerly Winds In The Mid/upper Levels Will Not Change Much Today...however...a Piece Of Energy From The Northwest Mexico Low Will Move Into West Texas This Afternoon With Surface Low Pressure Remaining Over The West Central Gulf Of Mexico. Resultant Increasing Isentropic Lift Over The Western/southern Portions Of The Area Late This Afternoon Should Cause Fairly Widespread Rain To Break Out. Have Increased Rain Chances To The High Likely Range West And South With Lower Chances Where Drier Air Holds Across Southern Ms And Some Adjacent La Parishes. The Main Mid/upper Low Is Expected To Remain Over Northwest Mexico Tonight Through Wednesday Night With Shearing Energy Moving Towards Our Area. Lifting Sources Will Weaken And Dry Air Will Gradually Move South Wednesday Into Wednesday Night. Have Ended Rain From The North During These Two Periods. .long Term... We Should Finally See Some Sunshine Through High Cloud Cover Thursday And Friday. The Next System Will Move Through The Area Saturday...so Have Increased Clouds And Rain Chances A Bit Saturday But Have Removed Mention Of Rain Sunday As We Should Be Under Subsidence In The Wake Of The Shortwave Trough. && New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-24-2007 10:19 AM Us64 Klix 240956afdlixarea Forecast Discussionnational Weather Service New Orleans La356 Am Cst Wed Jan 24 2007.short Term...temps Have Been The Only Real Problematic Variable Lately. Willstay On The Low Side Today Again As Rain Falls Through Therelatively Dry Bl Keeping The Area Closer To The Wick Temps. Thelocal Guidance (ros) Has Been Showing This Trend Better Than Ayother Guid Pack. Will Stay Closer To Its Temps For This Forecast.this Is Also In Line With Ongoing Fcast. The Ros Has Also Beenbetter With Precip Chances And Qpf Values. Will Take Pops Down Alittle For Today As Rain Begins To Lessen In Areal Coverage Andintensity. Clouds Begin To Move Out Starting Thursday. This Willcouple With A Short Lived Warming Trend Starting Fri Into Sat Asanother Low Develops Over The Nw Gulf And Moves East Quicklybrining Us Back Into The Clouds And Cool Wet Weather Late Sat Into Sun..long Term...with A Continued Strong Baroclinic Atmos Over The Warmgulf...several Lows Are Expected To Develop Over The Western Gulf Withhelp From Mid/upper Level Troughs Digging Into The Deep South. Thethird Low Should Begin To Affect The Area Starting Tue. Attm Itlooks Like We Stay On The Cool Side Of This System But Modelsolutions May Change Over Time Depending On The Strength Of Theupper Trough Digging Into The Southern Plains By Mid-week.&&.preliminary Point Temps/pops...mcb 49 35 56 32 / 40 10 0 0btr 49 37 57 35 / 50 10 0 0msy 50 42 58 40 / 60 20 0 0gpt 50 36 58 35 / 40 10 0 0&&.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...la...none.ms...none.gm...small Craft Advisory Until 6 Am Cst Thursday For Gmz550-555-570-575.&& |