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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-24-2006 11:56 AM

Mainly Across Coastalareas. After This Upper Feature Moves Off To The Northeast...adigging Northern Stream Upper Trough/low Will Swing Across Thelower Mississippi Valley Christmas Day And Monday Night Withthicknesses Forecast To Lower Significantly. It Still Appearsthat Most Of The Substantial Moisture Will Have Shifted East Ofthe Area Before Thicknesses Lower Enough For Any Frozenprecipitation.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-28-2006 09:37 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
408 Am Cst Thu Dec 28 2006

.discussion...
Upper Air Analysis At 5h Continue To Show A Trough From Western
Montana To Arizona And Southwest Flow Over South Central And
Southeast Conus. Surface Analysis Showed A High Over The Virginia Coast
And A Trough Lee Of The Rockies Over Eastern New Mexico. Short
Range Models Are Consistent With Bringing The System Through With
Very High Pops. However...gfs Is Slightly Faster Than Nam Model.
Isotach Analysis Revealed The Jet Max 120 To 130 Knots On The
Back Side Of Trough Or Off The California Coast. This Jet Max Is
Expected To Rotate Around The Base Of The Trough Friday...placing
The Central Gulf Coast Good Divergence. Expecting Surface Winds To
Become More Southeast This Afternoon With Surface Dewpoint
Readings Approaching 60f Behind By Friday 12z But Ankle Deep. Deep
Moisture Is Not Expected Until Friday Night After Midnight Through
Sunday 00z With Ample Instability. Deepening Trough Over Central Plains Will
Likely Develop Low Level Jet South To North Over East Texas Late
Friday Afternoon And Move East Through Early Sat. According To
Gfs...llj At 850mb Strengthens To 75 Knots Over Southwest
Mississippi. Strong West To Southwest Flow In The Upper Parts Of
The Atm Due To The Jet Max...will Send 0-3km Helicity Around
550m^2s^2 By 12z Saturday. All These Features Possibly In Place
May Yield Supercells...rotating Storms And Damaging Wind Storms
Early Saturday. Storm System Entrain Dry Air On The South Side That
Will Likely Diminished Rain Chance Saturday Night. Not Much Cold
Air Advection And Pacific System Will Likely Maintain Temps Around
Norms For The First Part Of 2007. Dry Forecast Is Expected After
Saturday.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 64 53 68 61 / 20 20 30 50


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Christina514 - 12-28-2006 03:36 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
408 Am Cst Thu Dec 28 2006

.discussion...
All These Features Possibly In Place
May Yield Supercells...rotating Storms And Damaging Wind Storms
Early Saturday. Storm System Entrain Dry Air On The South Side That
Will Likely Diminished Rain Chance Saturday Night. Not Much Cold
Air Advection And Pacific System Will Likely Maintain Temps Around
Norms For The First Part Of 2007. Dry Forecast Is Expected After
Saturday.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 64 53 68 61 / 20 20 30 50

Better keep that camera handy... but be safe down that way!!


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Hemorhage - 12-28-2006 03:41 PM

Man, my people JUST can't CATCH a BREAK!!!! /thumbsdow


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-29-2006 11:24 AM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
324 Am Cst Fri Dec 29 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning The Surface Low Was Developing Over West Texas
With The Upper Low Over Southwestern New Mexico. Models Continue
To Slow The Progression Of The System As It Moves Through Our
Area. By This Evening The Eastern Edge Of The Precip Should Be
Moving Into The Western Portion Of Our Pcwa. By Mid-day Saturday
The Front Should Be Moving Through Western Louisiana With The
Upper Low Over Northwest Texas...a 50-60 Knot Low-level Jet Across
Southeastern Louisiana...and Helicity Values Possibly Approaching
500 M2/s2. This Will Lead To A Potential For Severe Weather
Including Damaging Winds And A Few Tornadoes. Since The System
Will Be Slow-moving Through The Area...the Heavy Rainfall Will
Lead To A Flooding Threat. Right Now It Looks Like Most Areas Will
See 2 To 4 Inches Of Precip With Locally Higher Amounts From
Friday Through Sunday Morning. With The Already Saturated
Ground...this Could Quickly Lead To Flooding Problems. The Front
Should Push Through Our Land Areas Early Sunday...although The Nam
Keeps Some Precip Across Our Area Into Monday. We Will Lean More
Toward The Gfs Which Pushes The Precip Farther East/south.

The Winds Will Be Strong With This System With Strong
Southeasterly Winds Continuing Into Saturday Night Across The
Coastal Waters. This Will Lead To Tides Above Normal And A Small
Craft Advisory.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-30-2006 08:22 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
337 Am Cst Sat Dec 30 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning The Surface Low Was Over Western Oklahoma With
The Upper Low Over New Mexico. The Cold Front Stretched Southward
Along The Texas/louisiana Border With A Warm Front Across
Southwestern And South-central Louisiana. This System Will Slowly
Progress Eastward Today And Tomorrow. The Precip Water Value Last
Night At Lch Was 1.65 Inches...and This Should Increase And Spread
Eastward Into Our Area As The Warm Front Pushes Through. The 0-3km
Helicity Values Could Be Above 500 M2/s2 In The Area This
Afternoon. This...coupled With Divergence Aloft And A Strong
850hpa Jet Over 60 Knots...should Lead To An Active Day For Our
Area. The First Round Of Storms Early This Morning Are Associated
With The Warm Front Pushing Into Our Area...with The Next Line
Near The Cold Front. This Afternoon We Could See Heavy
Rainfall...severe Thunderstorms...and Possibly A Few Tornadoes.
Although The Rainfall With This System May Not Be As High As With
Some Previous Events...the Ground Is Already Saturated In Most
Areas And It Will Not Take Too Much To Cause Flooding.
Therefor...although The Highest Rainfall Totals In Our Area Likely
Will Be From Southwestern/south-central Mississippi Through
South-central Louisiana...the Flash Flood Watch Has Been Expanded
Across Our Entire Pcwa. 2 To 4 Inches Of Precip Are Likely...with
Some Areas Possibly Receiving More Than 6 Inches.

The Next Concern Will Be The System That Develops In The Western
Gulf And Moves Across Louisiana And Mississippi On Thursday.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-02-2007 06:46 PM

A Series Of Upper Level Low Pressure Systems Moving Out Of The
Desert Southwest United States Toward The Gulf States Will Bring
Concerns Of Potentially Heavy And Long Duration Rainfall Mainly On
Thursday And Again Sunday. In Both Systems...it Appears A Surface
Low Pressure System Will Develop In The Western Gulf Of Mexico And
Move Into Louisiana...bringing A Warm Front Onshore And Copious
Amounts Of Tropical Moisture From The Lower Gulf Of Mexico. A Tap
Of Pacific Tropical Moisture May Also Augment This Situation
Aloft...thereby Making Conditions Quite Favorable For Flooding
Rains. In Addition...seasonally High Astronomical Tides In
Combination With Wind Driven High Tides Can Pose A Coastal Flood
Situation That Will Hinder Gravity Drainage Capabilities For Areas
Near The Coast Or Within The Lake Pontchartrain Drainage Basins.

Though Still Early...current Forecast Models And Guidance
Methods Suggest That A General 3 To 5 Inches Of Rainfall Is
Possible Beginning Wednesday Night And Continuing Through Friday
Morning. Local Heavier Rainfall Totals During This Time Frame May
Exceed 8 Inches. The Next System Anticipated For Sunday Can Be
Similar In Magnitude. A Potential Accumulation For Both Events May
Easily Exceed 10 Inches In Some Locations While Most Locations Could
Average Closer To 5 Inches For The Period Wednesday Night Through
Monday Morning.

Current Hydrologic Conditions Across Southern Louisiana And
Southern Mississippi Has Many Rivers And Streams In High Flows Or
In Minor Flood At This Time. By Early Thursday...these Rivers And
Streams Will Be Either Cresting From Previous Heavy Rains Or On
Their Way Down. If The Heavy Rains Materialize As Indicated At
This Time...then These Rivers Will Likely Increase To Moderate
Flood Levels. Given Uncertainty On Placement Of Heaviest
Rains...rainfall Duration...tidal Influences And Other
Factors...major Flooding On A Few Streams Can Not Be Ruled Out.

A Severe Thunderstorm Threat Is Possible As Early As Wednesday
Night Near The Louisiana Coast And Spreading Inland And Eastward
During The Day Thursday. Due To Timing Uncertainty With This
System...the Actual Time Of Greatest Impacts May Vary. It Is
Anticipated That A Warm Front Will Form Offshore And Move
Northward Into Louisiana And Southern Missisissippi. Any
Thunderstorms Along This Warm Front Will Likely Have Rotating
Characteristics Capable Of Producing Tornadoes And Damaging Winds.

Everyone In Southeast Louisiana And Southern Mississippi Are Urged
To Pay Close Attention To The Latest Forecasts And Statements
Issued By The National Weather Service. Suggested Preparation
Actions Before The Onset Of The Heavy Rains Include The Cleaning
Out Of Ditches And Culverts In Front Of Your Home Or Business.
Persons With Property Or Field Equipment Near River Flood Plains
Should Consider Moving Them Out Of The River Bottoms At This Time.
Municipalities And Local Governments Are Urged To Take
Preparedness Measures For Drainage Systems In Anticipation Of
Flood Potential.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-21-2007 01:05 PM

This Afternoon: Periods of showers. Temperature falling to around 65 by 5pm. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 48. North wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-23-2007 10:12 AM

Fxus64 Klix 231044
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
444 Am Cst Tue Jan 23 2007

.short Term...
Somewhat Drier Air Will Hold This Morning And Possibly Into The
Early Afternoon Hours As A Cool And Dry Push In The Low Levels
Has Slided South Into The Forecast Area This Morning. Area Radars
Continue To Indicate Some Patchy Light Rain Around...but Most Of
This Appears To Be Sprinkles At Most At This Point. An Area Of
Surface Low Pressure Or A Wave Is Analyzed Over The West Central
Gulf Of Mexico.

Southwest To Westerly Winds In The Mid/upper Levels Will Not
Change Much Today...however...a Piece Of Energy From The Northwest
Mexico Low Will Move Into West Texas This Afternoon With Surface
Low Pressure Remaining Over The West Central Gulf Of Mexico.
Resultant Increasing Isentropic Lift Over The Western/southern
Portions Of The Area Late This Afternoon Should Cause Fairly
Widespread Rain To Break Out. Have Increased Rain Chances To The
High Likely Range West And South With Lower Chances Where Drier
Air Holds Across Southern Ms And Some Adjacent La Parishes.

The Main Mid/upper Low Is Expected To Remain Over Northwest Mexico
Tonight Through Wednesday Night With Shearing Energy Moving
Towards Our Area. Lifting Sources Will Weaken And Dry Air Will
Gradually Move South Wednesday Into Wednesday Night. Have Ended
Rain From The North During These Two Periods.

.long Term...
We Should Finally See Some Sunshine Through High Cloud Cover
Thursday And Friday. The Next System Will Move Through The Area
Saturday...so Have Increased Clouds And Rain Chances A Bit
Saturday But Have Removed Mention Of Rain Sunday As We Should Be
Under Subsidence In The Wake Of The Shortwave Trough.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-24-2007 10:19 AM

Us64 Klix 240956afdlixarea Forecast Discussionnational Weather Service New Orleans La356 Am Cst Wed Jan 24 2007.short Term...temps Have Been The Only Real Problematic Variable Lately. Willstay On The Low Side Today Again As Rain Falls Through Therelatively Dry Bl Keeping The Area Closer To The Wick Temps. Thelocal Guidance (ros) Has Been Showing This Trend Better Than Ayother Guid Pack. Will Stay Closer To Its Temps For This Forecast.this Is Also In Line With Ongoing Fcast. The Ros Has Also Beenbetter With Precip Chances And Qpf Values. Will Take Pops Down Alittle For Today As Rain Begins To Lessen In Areal Coverage Andintensity. Clouds Begin To Move Out Starting Thursday. This Willcouple With A Short Lived Warming Trend Starting Fri Into Sat Asanother Low Develops Over The Nw Gulf And Moves East Quicklybrining Us Back Into The Clouds And Cool Wet Weather Late Sat Into Sun..long Term...with A Continued Strong Baroclinic Atmos Over The Warmgulf...several Lows Are Expected To Develop Over The Western Gulf Withhelp From Mid/upper Level Troughs Digging Into The Deep South. Thethird Low Should Begin To Affect The Area Starting Tue. Attm Itlooks Like We Stay On The Cool Side Of This System But Modelsolutions May Change Over Time Depending On The Strength Of Theupper Trough Digging Into The Southern Plains By Mid-week.&&.preliminary Point Temps/pops...mcb 49 35 56 32 / 40 10 0 0btr 49 37 57 35 / 50 10 0 0msy 50 42 58 40 / 60 20 0 0gpt 50 36 58 35 / 40 10 0 0&&.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...la...none.ms...none.gm...small Craft Advisory Until 6 Am Cst Thursday For Gmz550-555-570-575.&&