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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-26-2006 08:34 AM

Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans La
316 Am Cdt Thu Oct 26 2006

Fxus64 Klix 260801
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
301 Am Cdt Thu Oct 26 2006

.discussion...

Updated To Add Small Craft Advisories

Early This Morning A Low Pressure System Was Developing Over The
Central Plains States With The Upper-low Over Western Colorado And
Extensive Moisture Pumping Northward Across East Texas And
Louisiana. By Thursday Night The Low Should Be Stacked Around
Eastern Oklahoma With The Cold Front Moving Into Northern/western
Louisiana. The Front Should Push Through Much Of The Area Friday
Morning. Most Of The Instability And Thunderstorm Activity Should
Be Along And Ahead Of The Front. There Is A Slight Chance For
Severe Thunderstorms With Thursday And Thursday Night Ahead Of The
Front With The Main Threats Being Damaging Winds...but The
Strongest Threat Remains To The North/northwest Of Our Pcwa Closer
To The Upper Low. The Upper Trough Will Lag Behind The Front A Bit
And Keep Rain Chances In The Area Friday Afternoon. Northwest
Winds Should Be Strong Behind The Front...leading To Likely Small
Craft Advisory Conditions Across The Tidal Lakes And Coastal
Waters. By Saturday Afternoon The Winds Should Be Diminishing And
The Skies Clearing. Mild Conditions Should Continue Into Halloween
On Tuesday.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 71 64 72 50 / 70 80 60 10
Btr 75 66 74 51 / 60 80 60 10
Msy 77 70 78 57 / 50 70 70 10
Gpt 72 68 77 53 / 40 60 80 10

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-30-2006 07:04 AM

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
331 Am Cst Mon Oct 30 2006

.discussion...
Cold Front Moving Through South Dakota And Northern Wyoming This
Morning Will Begin To Spill Behind The Sluggish Cold Front Over
The Mid West. This Will Add Better Forcing Today And Tomorrow To
Cause The Mid West Cold Front To Become Energized And Move Toward
The Area. Problem In Forecast Today Will Be Trying To Find Out
When The Cold Front Will Move Through The Area. Attm The Front
Looks To Be Slow And Sluggish As It Enters The Area Wednesday. It
Takes The Whole Day Wed To Get The Trough Axis Through The Area.
The Cold Air Surge Finally Makes It Here By Late Wed Night/thu
Morning. The Weather Problem To Contend With Here Will Be Fog
Conditions As The Area Enters A Return Flow Regime.

A Convergent Zone In The Boundary Layer Will Show Up Today
Possibly Causing Some Light Rain To Develop Toward The Western Part Of
The Bayou State.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-01-2006 06:43 AM

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
249 Am Cst Wed Nov 1 2006

.discussion...
Cold Front Depicted Well By Strong Dew Pt Gradient. This Should
Continue To Be The Trend Today. At 230am The Front Was Located
From Monroe To Fort Polk To Near Houston Tx. The Cold Front Will
Continue To Move Slowly Se (~12kt) Through The Area All Day
Today. A Low Forming Along The Axis Near Jasper Texas Will Cause
The Front To Kink Around The West La Se Tx Area This Morning Which Will
Also Act To Slow The Ne Portion Of The Front A Little. As The Low
Moves Ne...the Cold Front Will Make Its Way Through Our Area.
Eventhough We Will Feel The Cool Air As The Front Passes...a
Reinfocement Will Quickly Move In Behind The Front Thursday
Morning Causing It To Speed Up And Moving It Out Of The Coastal
Waters. The High Responsible For The Extra Surge Of Cool Dry Air
Will Also Cause The Pressure Gradient To Tighten Quite A Bit Over
The Area Making For A Breezy Day Thursday. The Coastal Waters Will
Become Quite Windy And Rough By The End Of The Day Thursday
Through Friday Morning.

The Next Weather Maker Looks To Be Toward The End Of The 7 Day
Forecast. But If It Pans Out As Advertised...it Could Be A Major
Problem As Everything Will Be Available For A Strong Severe
Weather Outbreak Along With Flooding Potential. Will Not Change
Any Grids On Next Wed Attm Since This Is Quite A Ways Out But We
May Be Changing The Thursday Period As It Falls Into The Forecast.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-02-2006 06:28 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
409 Am Cst Thu Nov 2 2006

.discussion...
Low Level Cloud Line Moving This Way Quickly This Morning And
Should Clear The Area By Around 15z This Morning. Temps Falling
Quickly As Well With Strong Caa. Stat Guidance Numbers Have Been
Dropping Consistently Over The Past Few Days As A 1031mb High Over
The Central Conus Begins To Settle Into The Region. As The High
Moves Into The Area Winds Will Settle Down Over Land Starting Late
Tonight And Friday Night Bringing Up Some Excellent Conditions For
Radiational Cooling To Take Hold. Gfs Is Not As Aggressive As The
Eta At Bringing Colder Temps In And A Mix Of The Two Looks To Be
The Best Result. Ros Numbers Are Even More Aggressive Over The
Northern Half Of The Area But Is Showing A Better Trend Than The
Others. So Overall A Mix Of All Guidance Numbers With Trending Of
The Ros Numbers Will Be The Final Pick On Temps.

The Next System Wil Begin To Affect The Area By Monday. Winds Will
Come Around To The East On Sunday Brining Moisture Back Toward
Western La And Eventually Over This Way During The First Half Of
The Work Week.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-08-2006 08:19 AM

Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
303 Am Cst Wed Nov 8 2006

.discussion...
Very Progressive Pattern Of Pacific Type Systems Will Plague The
Region Through The Next Several Days. The First Is Now Over The Se
Conus And Wil Exit The Eastern Seaboard While The Next System
Will Begin To Devlop On The Lee Side Of The Rockies Today. This
System Will Affect Us By Saturday. The Next One Will Quickly Move
In By Monday While Yet Another Much Stronger Cold Front Will Make
Its Way Toward The Area By Next Wed. We Will Be On The Perverbial
Temp Roller Coaster As Return Flow Begins Rapidly After Frontal
Passages. Guidance Temps May Be A Little Off As The Quickness Of
The Systems May Be Hard To Keep Up With.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-09-2006 09:19 AM

Fxus64 Klix 090957
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
357 Am Cst Thu Nov 9 2006

.discussion...
Moisture Return Is Occurring In S Tx This Morning As 70 Degree Dew
Pts Race Northward In Advance Of The Next Cold Front.

The Saturday Cold Front Looks To Move Through The Area Before
Stalling In The Near Shore Coastal Waters. It Will Then Move Back
To The North As A Warm Front Once Return Flow Begins Ahead Of The
Next Cold Front Slated For Monday Evening. The Monday Front Looks
As If It Will Stall Before Getting Through The Area. The Next Weak
Cold Front Moves Near The Area Wed. The Wed Front Begins To Wash
Out As T/dp Gradient Becomes Nonexistant. The Monday Cold Front
That Is Stalled Over The Area Will Then Begin To Lift Back North
As It Feels The Synoptic Tug From A Much Stronger Cold Front That
Should Make Its Way Through The Area By Thursday Or Friday Of
Next Week.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-10-2006 08:36 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
445 Am Cst Fri Nov 10 2006

Increasing Clouds This Am Have Limited Fog Development. However...
Could See Some Low Clouds Forming Near Daybreak. Not Much Difference
In This Package And Previous...except Increased Precip Chances Early
Next Week.

Over The Next Several Days...a Series Of Progressive Shortwave
Troughs Will Provide Considerable Cloudiness/chance Of Precip Over
Our Forecast Area. First Shortwave Trough Will Move Across Central
U.s. Toward Lower Ms River Valley Fri Night Into Sat. Blend Of
Nam/gfs Will Bring Cold Front Through Much Of Our Area Late Fri
Night And Over Our Coastal Waters Sat Morning. Moisture...
Instability...and Forcing Will Be Adequate For A Chance Of Showers/
Thunderstorms Ahead Of Boundary. Most Of Severe Weather Potential
Should Remain North Of Our Forecast Area. By Sat Evening...rainfall
Will Decrease As System Pushes East Of Area. Significantly Cooler
Air Filters Into Region Pushing Low Temps Into The 40s And 50s For
Sat Night.

Shortwave Energy Will Enhance Return Flow Of Moisture Off Gulfmx Sun
Night Into Mon Night. Chance Of Showers/thunderstorms Returns From W
As Shortwave Trough Pushes Se. Gfs Looks Reasonable With Its
Solution. Best Chances Of Thunder/heavy Rain Will Occur Mon Night
Into Tue. Isolated Rainfall Amounts Over 2.00 Inches Are Possible
According To Model...with Gfs Placing A Bull`s-eye Of More Than 3.0
Inches Over Our Nwrn Zones. Will Not Accept This Prog Attm...since
This Could Reflect Some Convective Feedback. Heavy Rainfall Could Be
Possible Given Dynamics Associated With System And Abundant Gulf
Moisture. The Greater Than 2.0 Inches Precip Bull`s-eye Shifts Se By
Late Tue. Then...a Strong Cold Front Comes Through Tue Night.
Cloudiness Becomes Variable With Some Partial Clearing...as Rainfall
Diminishes. Model Suggests Deep Mid/upper Low And Trough Setting Up
Across Ms River Valley Wed...with Some Chance Of Rain Over Region
Through Thu. Gfs Trends Seem Reasonable. Temp Trends Also
Reasonable...as Values Become More Seasonal.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-11-2006 10:58 AM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
419 Am Cst Sat Nov 11 2006

.discussion...
Current Cold Front Moving Through The Area Will Leave Behind Some
Weak Overrunning Precip. Will Simply Give This A 30 Pop And
Quickly Take It Down To 10% By Noon. The Cold Front Will Make It
Well Into The Gulf But Should Stall Near The Mid Region. Then The
Real System Begins To Make Itself Known. The Gulf Front Will Begin
To Back Up First Along The Texas Coastal Bend And Moisture Will
Rush Northward To Meet A Developing Low In The Foothills Of The
Rockies By Monday. The Cause Of This Developing System Will Be A
Strong Upper Jet(~160kts) Moving Into The West Coast Monday. This
Jet Will Help To Undercut The Ridge That Will Be Moving East
Across The Conus. As These Jet Winds Begin To Move Across The
Rockies, They Will Slow A Bit As The Jet Causes A Strong
Amplification Of The Upper Trough Over The Central Us. Now The
System Will Be Set Up For Severe Weather. It Will Finally Take
Advantage Of The Moisture Ahead Of The Old Front In The Gulf And
The Very Strong Upper-mid And Low Level Jet Dynamics.
Basically...as The Strong Cold Front Approaches The Gulf
Coast...somewhere Between The Lch And Mob Areas A Severe Line Of
Ts Will Erupt With Single Cell Activity Out Ahead Of The System.
Will Show This Scenario In The Hwo This Morning As Well.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-13-2006 09:31 AM

Fxus64 Klix 122016
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
216 Pm Cst Sun Nov 12 2006

.discussion...

Early This Afternoon The Cold Front Had Pushed Well South Into The
Gulf Of Mexico As The Upper Low Moved Across The Carolinas. Winds
Were Diminishing Across The Area. For The Short Term The Main
Concern Is Temps Tonight. Temps Dropped Into The Mid-upper 30s
Across Much Of Southwest Mississippi Into East-central Louisiana
This Morning. This Is Expected Again Tonight With High Pressure
Building Into The Area. Light East-northeast Winds Also Could Drop
Temps In Metro New Orleans To The Low-mid 40s Since This Fetch
Would Be From Coastal Mississippi Rather Than The Warmer Lake
Pontchartrain.

In The Longer Term...the Models Seem To Be In A Little Better
Agreement With The System Expected On Wednesday. Southerly Flow
Should Return To The Lower Mississippi Valley By
Tuesday...bringing Increased Moisture To The Area. By Wednesday
Morning A Vigorous Upper-level Low Should Be Diving South Into
Missouri As A Surface Low Over Illinois Drags A Cold Front Into
The Northern/western Portions Of Our Pcwa. As The Front Pushes
Through The Pcwa Wednesday Morning/afternoon And The Upper-
Low/trough Digs Farther Into The Lower Mississippi
Valley...convection Should Increase Across The Area. The Strong
Dynamics And Instability Could Lead To Strong To A Severe Squall
Line Moving Across Our Area.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-24-2006 09:40 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
203 Am Cst Fri Nov 24 2006

.discussion...

Generally Fair Weather Is Expected Into Early Next Week. The High
Pressure Ridge At The Surface And Aloft Will Drift Eastward Over
The Next Few Days...leading To More Easterly/southeasterly Flow At
The Surface And An Increase In Moisture And Temps. Some Clouds
Also Will Begin To Return Later This Weekend/early Next Week. An
Upper-level Trough Is Expected To Drop Into The Plains States Next
Thursday As A Cold Front Pushes Through The Lower Mississippi
Valley.