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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-09-2006 05:54 PM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
320 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 9 2006

.discussion...
The High Pressure That Was Still Evident Today Will Begin To
Weaken And Move Off On Tue. Will See Increasing Moisture/cloud
Cover Beginning Late Tonight Into Tomorrow. Tue Night Into Wed
Will Reintroduce Pops As Good Srly Flow Sets Up Ahead Of A
Vigorous Frontal System That Will Push Into And Through The Area
On Thu. Could Have Some Strong Thunderstorms Ahead Of/along Front
As Will Get Some Good Moisture In Place Ahead. Will Also Have A
Strong Upper Level Jet Over The Deep South To Enhance Convection.
Omega Values Showing Decent Lift Ahead Of Front As Well. By
Fri...will Have This System Well Into The Coastal Waters. This
High Pressure Though Will Be Short Lived As Frontal Stalls Out And
Returns Over The Weekend As A Warm Front. A Low Pressure Develops
In The Nw Gulf And Rides Along This Warm Front Boundary Creating
Our Focus For Storm Development Over The Weekend Into The
Beginning Of Next Week.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-12-2006 06:58 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
209 Am Cdt Thu Oct 12 2006

.discussion...
Main Push Of Cold Air Is Headed East This Morning As It Falls
Behind The Initial Trough That Passed Yesterday. We Will Still See
Some Cool Air Entrainment Here Though By Late Today And Tonight.
Clouds Will Also Begin To Stream In Today And Tonight A
Disturbance Ripples Across The Canadian Frontal Axis That Should
Be Slowly Moving Through The Area Tonight. The Main Area Of Ts
Will Be Over Se Tx Late Today And Some Of The Mid And Upper Level
Moisture Will Be Taken East By The Westerly Subtropical Jet To
Bring Some Light Showers This Way. No Problems Are Expected With
This And Should Only Be Enough To Wet Pavement. Ts Activity Is
Expected To Stay Over The Extreme Coastal Parishes And Coastal
Waters Through Friday. Will Not Touch Any Variables Past Saturday
Since Models Diverge Strongly With Solutions And Confidence Is
Very Low With A Gulf Low Developing And Moving Very Close To Us.
Not To Say This Can`t Happen But The Eta Solution Looks More
Viable Attm As The Canadian Sfc High Moves East And Return Flow
Starts In Tx Keeping Things Here Nice And Cool. And The Eta Is
Verifying Better This Morning By Doing A Fantastic Job With The
Placement And Timing Of The Sh/ts Developing And Moving Out Of Ne
Tx.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-14-2006 06:16 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
332 Am Cdt Sat Oct 14 2006

.discussion...

Buoy And Ship Reports Combined With Sattelite And Radar Analysis
Show The Front Has Pushed Offshore Tonight...with Showers
Continuing Just Outside Of The Coastal Waters. The Front Should
Linger Over This Area Through The Day...as A General Westerly Flow
Remains In Place. To The North Of This Front...and Dry And Cool
Airmass Will Continue To Dominate Southeast Louisiana And Southern
Mississippi...with Temperatures Near To Slightly Below
Normal And Low Humidities Continuing. However...this Period Of
Typical Fall Weather Will Be Shortlived...as A Fairly Progressive
Pattern Remains In Place Across The Continental United States.

Tonight...the High Over The Central Gulf Coast Will Shift
Northeastward Into The Mid-atlantic States. At The Same Time...a
Cut Off Low In The Southwest Will Begin To Eject Out In Advance Of
Deepening Long Wave Trough Diving Down From Alaska. A Surface Low
Will Begin To Form Over The Southern Plains Near The Base Of This
Cut Off Low Pressure System Late Tonight Into Tomorrow. Low And
Mid Level Flow Will Begin To Become More Easterly To Southeasterly
Overnight As A Gradient Begins To Form Between The High And Low
Pressure Systems. However...moisture Return Will Remain Limited
Initially...and Only Have Isolated Pops In The Vicinity Of The
Front For Sunday Morning Over The Atchafalaya Basin Down Toward
The Coast Of Southeast Louisiana. However...a Strong Low Level Jet
Of 35 To 40 Knots Will Begin To Develop Early Sunday And Really
Take Hold Sunday Afternoon As The Low In The Plains Begin To
Deepen Rapidly. Strong Theta E Advection Will Take Place In The
Mid-levels...and A Warm Front Will Develop In Response To The
Warmer And Moister Air From The Western Gulf Being Pulled
Northward. This Front Will Push Through The Area Sunday
Night...with Isentropically Induced Rain Showers And Thunderstorms
Overspreading The Cwa. The Front Will Push To The North Of The
Area By Monday Morning...allowing For Deep Southerly Flow To Take
Hold Throughout The Atmospheric Column. Strong Forcing Associated
With The H5 Trough Ejecting Out Of The Four Corners Combined Wtih
A Surface Low...and Developing Dry Line/cold Front In Texas Will
Lead To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms In The Warm Sector
Monday Into Monday Night. The Front Will Sweep Through The Cwa On
Tuesday...as The Shortwave Trough Pulls Into The Ohio Valley And
Mid-atlantic States. Scattered Pops Are Warranted In Advance Of
The Front On Tuesday...with The Best Chance Of Rain In The Morning
Hours. Tempertures Will Be Slightly Above Normal...but The Cloud
Cover And Rainfall Will Limit Overall Heating...keeping Things
Cooler Than Thickness Values Support.

The Front Will Stall Just Offshore Tuesday Night And Remain Over
The Region Through Wednesday...as Westerly Flow In The Upper
Levels Takes Hold...and The Best Dynamical Forcing Shifts To The
North And East. A Series Of Weak Impulses Riding Through The
Region Will Allow For Just Enough Upper Level Lift To Promote
Continued Isolated To Scattered Pops Tuesday Night Into Wednesday.
The Deepening Trough Over The Western United States Will Begin To
Pull Eastward Wednesday Night Into Thursday. Another Area Of Low
Pressure Will Develop Over The Plains On Wednesday And Push Into
The Ohio Valley On Thursday In Advance Of This Digging Trough.
Strong Southerly Flow In The Low And Mid-levels Will Continue To
Pump Warm And Moist Gulf Air Into The Region Through Thursday. As
A Result...temperatures Will Be Above Normal On Wednesday...as
Less Cloud Cover And Rainfall...combined With Thickness Values In
The 575-580 Range Support Highs Near 90. A Strong Cold Front
Associated With The Strong Mid-latitude Trough Will Sweep Into The
Area On Thursday. Have Decided To Go With Midrange Scattered Pops
For Now In Advance Of The Front. Going Into Thursday Night And
Friday...it Appears The Front Will Stall Over The Region...as An
Impulse Wrapping Around The Upper Level Trough Moves Through The
Area. A Weak Low Pressure Will Form Along The Front...holding Up
The Progress. Have Kept Scattered Pops In Through Friday To
Account For This Secondary Wave Of Energy Coming Through.
However...lower Thicknesses And Some Moderate Cold Air Advection
Will Cause Temperatures To Fall Below Normal On Friday. The Front
Will Finally Clear The Region Friday Night Into Saturday...as A
Strong Ridge Of High Pressure Builds In And Northwesterly Flow
Takes Over. Strong Cold Air Advection And Clear Skies Should Allow
Temperatures To Fall Into The 40s North Of The Lake And 50s South
Of The Lake Friday Night.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-15-2006 07:13 AM

Fxus64 Klix 150820
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
320 Am Cdt Sun Oct 15 2006

.discussion...

A Pattern Change Is Taking Place Overnight...as The Cool And Dry
Conditions Across Southeast Louisiana And Southern Mississippi
Give Way To A Warm Front And A Return To Summer Like Conditions
For The Early Part Of The Week. Current Water Vapor Analysis Shows
A Strong Upper Level Low In The Four Corners Area Starting To
Push Into The Southern Plains.

At The Same Time...a Deep Pool Of Tropical Moisture Associated
With A Weak Trough Over The Bay Of Campeche Will Begin To Advect
Northward Into East Texas And Southwest Louisiana Today On The
Back Of A Strong 50 Knot Low Level Jet. Across Our Area...the Low
Level Jet Will Be A Bit Weaker...but Will Still Be In The 30 To 40
Knot Range Sunday Into Sunday Night. This Strong Warmth And
Moisture Advection Will At First Lift Up Over A Shallow Pool Of
Cooler And Drier Air Over The Region. However...by Late Sunday
Night...the Moisture Will Begin To Work Toward The
Surface...providing For Widespread Rainfall Across The Region.
Also...strong Speed And Directional Shear Across The Region Will
Support The Development Of Thunderstorms...especially Sunday Night
Into Monday. 0-6 Km Speed Shear Of 25 To 30 Knots Is Possible
Monday Afternoon As The Strong Low Level Jet Axis Moves Over The
Area...in Advance Of The Upper Level Low Moving Through The
Ozarks. However...the Broad Area Of Rain...may Keep Overall
Instability Down. Given This Limiting Factor...only An Isolated
Severe Thunderstorm Is Expected...as Opposed To The More
Extensive Outbreak The Shear Profiles Support. The Slow Moving
System Will Continue To Affect The Region Into Monday Night Into
Tuesday With Heavy Rainfall And Locally Strong To Severe
Thunderstorms Continuing. Overall...rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 3
Inches Are Expected Across A Large Area...but A Few Localized
Areas Could See Rainfall Of 5 To 6 Inches Before The System Clears
The Region Tuesday Night Into Wednesday. Due To Dry Antecedent
Conditions...the Overall Flood Threat Appears Low At This Time.

However...the Frontal Boundary Will Stall Over The Coastal Waters
Wednesday...and Then Surge Northward Wednesday Night Into The
Tennessee Valley As A Deep Low Pressure System Associated With A
Strong Longwave Trough Forms In The Central Plains. Along With
This Front...a Strong Southwesterly Flow In The Upper Levels In
Advance Of The Digging Trough Over The Western Two Thirds Of The
Nation Will Allow Several Weak Impulses To Cross Through The
Region. Given That Ample Instability Will Remain In Place Across
The Area...along With A Low Level Focusing Mechanism...have
Decided To Keep Low End Chance Pops In Wednesday Into Wednesday
Night. By Thursday...the Strong Longwave Trough Will Begin To Pull
Eastward...pushing The Strong Low In The Plains Into The
Midwest...and Dragging A Cold Front Through The Cwa. Have Went
With High End Chance Pops For Thursday...as The Strong Front...a
Developing Jet Streak...and Ample Low Level Instability Interact.
A Few Strong To Locally Severe Thunderstorms Will Be Possible
Along The Front As It Slices Through The Region.

The Front Will Clear The Region Friday Morning...allowing Strong
Cold And Dry Air Advection To Take Place. An Area Of High Pressure
Will Settle In Friday Night Into Saturday...associated With A
Fairly Deep Cold Pool. Temperatures Will Cool Back Into The 40s
Over The Northshore With 50s South Of The Lake Friday Night And
Saturday Night. Highs Will Be Near To Slightly Below Normal Friday
And Saturday As 1000-500mb Thickness Values Fall Into The Low
560s.

Of Note...strong Easterly And Southeast Flow Associated With The
System Today And Tomorrow Will Allow Tides To Run Around A Foot
Above Normal Along The Mississippi Gulf Coast.


&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-16-2006 05:56 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 160927AFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA427 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ON TAP EARLY IN THEFORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THEFORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THESUPERCELLS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT BISECTING THEAREA APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED WHILE CELLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THEBOUNDARY ARE SURFACE BASED AND HAVE PRODUCED TWO OR THREE TORNADOSTHAT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME DAMAGE ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE THREATOF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THEGREATEST THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES DURING THE MORNING ANDEARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN VERY IMPRESSIVE HELICITY VALUES ANDSHEAR WILL BE THE GREATEST. ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCEOF AN UPPER LOW/SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO THAT WAS ADVANCINGTOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS ITTRAVERSES EAST NORTHEAST MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO DEVELOPINTO AN OPEN WAVE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONGLOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THELOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WAS ADVECTING VERY RICH MOISTURELADEN AIR NORTHWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A FAVORABLYPOSITIONED UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.PERSISTENT STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDES TO RISE TOTWO TO THREE FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS WITH MINORCOASTAL FLOODING ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN HAN**** COUNTY. SINCETHESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THE COASTAL FLOODWATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. THEPOSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTZONES WILL NECESSITATE THE CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHIN THAT AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOCONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY ANDWEDNESDAY THE NAM BEING MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS WHICH BRINGSDRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FASTER. PLAN TO KEEP SOME POPS IN THEFORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH THE DRY GFS FORTUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMESTHURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AS A BROADUPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ANDA CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAYMORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2006 02:32 AM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New Orleans La
532 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 16 2006

Laz038-040-050-058-060>064-066>070-msz080>082-171200-
/o.con.klix.cf.w.0001.000000t0000z-061017t1200z/
Tangipahoa-st. Tammany-livingston-st. John The Baptist-
St. Charles-upper Jefferson-orleans-upper Plaquemines-
Upper St. Bernard-lower Terrebonne-lower Lafourche-
Lower Jefferson-lower Plaquemines-lower St. Bernard-han****-
Harrison-jackson-
532 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 16 2006

...coastal Flood Warning Remains In Effect Until 7 Am Cdt
Tuesday...

A Coastal Flood Warning Remains In Effect Until 7 Am Cdt Tuesday.

Strong Southeast Winds Over The Tidal Lakes And Coastal Waters
Have Pushed Tide Levels 2 To 3 Feet Above Normal Which Has
Resulted In Flooding Of Some Coastal Areas. South Winds Of 25 To
35 Mph Near The Coast And Over The Tidal Lakes Are Expected
Through Tonight As An Area Of Strong Low Pressure Moves Northeast
Across The Lower Mississippi Valley. This Will Likely Keep Tides
2 To 3 Feet Above Normal...however...han**** County Water Levels
Should Slowly Recede As Winds Turn More From The Due South.

Han**** County Emergency Management Officials Reported Severe
Street Flooding And Some Mobile Homes Threatened Earlier Today In
The Shoreline Park Subdivision And In Pearlington.

Terrebonne Parish Emergency Management Officials Reported Tidal
Flooding Of 1 To 2 Feet Inundating Roads In Dulac...cocodrie...and
Pointe Au Chien.

An Off Duty National Weather Service Employee Has Reported Waves
Washing Over Mandeville Flood Wall Causing Street Flooding Along
Lake Shore Drive.

Astronomical High Tides Will Occur Again Tuesday Morning Between
630 And 1030 Am.

Heavy Rainfall May Add To Water Ponding On Roads That Experience
Flooding From High Tides. Do Not Drive Across Flooded Roadways.

A Coastal Flood Warning Means That Flooding Is Occurring Or
Imminent. Coastal Residents In The Warned Area Should Be Alert
For Rising Water...and Take Appropriate Action To Protect Life
And Property.

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2006 04:57 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
357 Am Cdt Wed Oct 18 2006

.discussion...areas Of Dense Fog Are Impacting The Forecast Area
This Morning Although Visibilities Should Begin To Improve Shortly
After Daybreak. Otherwise...a Progressive Weather Pattern Remains
In Store For The Area Beginning Later Today. Brief High Pressure
Over The Southeast Region Should Quickly Move Off Toward The
Atlantic Basin Tonight As Gulf Moisture Streams Into The Area.
This Precedes The Passage Of The Next Cold Front Expecyed To Sweep
Through The Gulf Coast Region Late Tonight And Thu. Convection
Looks To Begin Later Today And Persist Through Fropa. Shear
Profiles Suggest Most Of The Thunderstorms Should Trend More
Linear In Nature With The Main Threat Being Damaging Straight Line
Winds Mainly Along And Ahead Of The Approaching Boundary. Cooler
And Drier Air Then Make A Brief Appearance Again Fri And Into Sat
As High Pressure Moves Over The Southeast States. This Weather
Pattern Is Then Quickly Followed By Yet Another Cold Front
Expected To Move Through The Area Sun Accompanied By More Showers
And Thunderstorms. A Broader Ridge Of High Pressure Then Looks To
Settle Over The Region By The Start Of The New Work Week And
Prevail Through Mid Week.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2006 06:05 AM

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
332 Am Cdt Fri Oct 20 2006

.discussion...much More Quiet Weather In Store For The Area Today
As The Passing Cold Front Continues Toward Fl While High Pressure
Settles Into The Lower Mississippi Valley. Lingering Cloud Cover
This Morning Should Eventually Give Way To Clearing Skies And
Cooler Weather Later Today And Tonight. The Pleasant Weather Will
Quickly Give Way To More Rain As The High Pushes Toward The
Atlantic Basin Sat As The Next Cold Front Approaches The Forecast
Area. The Gfs Has This Boundary Moving Through The Area Sat Night
And Early Sun With Showers And Thunderstorms Developing Along And
Ahead Of The Boundary. By Mon...a Broader Ridge Of High Pressure
Out Of Canada Looks To Move Into The Mississippi Valley As
Suggested By The Nwp Models With Another Round Of Fall Like
Weather. This Too Looks To Be Short Lived As The Modified Canadian
High Moves Toward The East Coast By Wed With Yet Another Round
Of Wet Weather Slated For The Area Only This Time...the Oncoming
Energy Looks To Be Embedded In A Southwest Flow Pattern Aloft.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-23-2006 07:14 AM

Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
305 Am Cdt Mon Oct 23 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning The Cold Front Had Pushed Well Offshore. Winds
Will Remain High Across The Coastal Waters Through This Evening.
The Ridge Of High Pressure Gradually Will Slide Eastward Across
The Are Through The First Half Of The Week. By Wednesday The Next
Low Pressure System Will Be Developing Over The Plains States. The
Associated Cold Front Will Push Through The Area On Thursday As
The Upper Low Moves Across The Central Plains Into The Western
Great Lakes. For Now It Appears That The Best Dynamics Will Remain
To The North. This Will Be Followed By Another Period Of High
Pressure And Fair Weather Through The Weekend.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-24-2006 07:34 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
345 Am Cdt Tue Oct 24 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning There Were Clear Skies And Cool Temps. Some
Areas In Southwest Mississippi Into East-central Louisiana May See
Some Patchy Frost For The First Time This Season Where Temps Drop
Below 40f. On Wednesday There Is A Low Pressure System Developing
In The Plains States With The Surface Low Around The Oklahoma
Panhandle And The Upper Trough Digging Into Colorado. This Is
Farther South Than Model Runs Showed Yesterday. Return Flow Should
Bring Ample Moisture Into Our Pcwa For Convection Thursday. On
Thursday The Cold Front Should Push Into The Lower Mississippi
Valley With The Associated Upper Low Moving Into Arkansas/southern
Missouri. With This Farther South Track Of The System Bringing The
Dynamics Closer To Our Area...the Potential For Strong To Severe
Thunderstorms Is Higher Than Previously Expected. Behind The Front
There Should Be Relatively Tranquil Weather Through The Weekend
Outside The Strong Northwest Winds Thursday Night Into Friday
Night.