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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-13-2006 09:05 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000FXUS64 KLIX 131351 AAAAFDLIXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA851 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2006.UPDATE...A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS WASMADE...TO REFLECT THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND THE AREAOF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVEDECIDED TO LEAVE IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THISAFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGESWERE MADE TO THE GRIDS...AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOZONE UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY...AND THE MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE OFTHE COASTALS WILL PICK UP ON THE MARINE GRID CHANGES.&&.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 417 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2006)DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THISMORNING WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THESOUTHEAST. THE FRONT, CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERNMISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS, MADE LITTLE PROGRESSDURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. IT SHOULD GET MOVING WITH GUSTO TODAY,PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.LATE YESTERDAY EVENING, THERE WERE SEVERAL SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS RIDING ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY DIED AS THIS MORNING HAS PROGRESSED. RADARCURRENTLY SHOWS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERCENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BELIEVE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE MUCHPRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THEONGOING ACTIVITY WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE KLIX RADARVAD WIND PROFILE ALREADY INDICATES NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 12,000FEET. HAVE FORECAST ISOLATED POPS EARLY TODAY, TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILLBEGIN. LOOKING UPSTREAM, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S. THIS ADVECTIONWILL SERVE TO LOWER OUR TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT TOO DRASTICLY GIVENTHE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEWNIGHTS WILL SERVE TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND WE CANEXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND INTO THELOWER 70S SOUTH. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE PLEASANT, WITHCLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. WHAT A NICELEAD IN TO FALL!RETURN FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTUREOVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER LOWWILL EXIT THE ROCKIES AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS,PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THUS,RAIN CHANCES ARE BROUGHT BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. HIGHPRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...NONE.GM...NONE.MS...NONE.GM...NONE.&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-14-2006 05:13 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 140810
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
310 Am Cdt Thu Sep 14 2006

.discussion...
Cold Front Will Not Move Too Far Away From Shore Before Making Its
Way Back Inland Over The Weekend. Dry Air Will Move Very Slowly
Southward Over The Next 24 Hours. Then The Stationary Boundary
Will Begin To Feel The Tug From The Next Cold Front Developing In
The Foothills. This Will Only Allow Us To Get A Day Or So To Enjoy
Lower Dp Air Before The Muggy Conditions Come Rushing Back In.
Next Front Moves In Early Tue Morning. Moisture Will Be Deep And
Plentiful Enough To Give Rise To Plenty Of Convection Along And
Ahead Of The Tue Cold Front. Pop Numbers May Be Too Low During The
Sun-tue Morning Time Frame But Until Confidence Is Increased Will
Opt To Keep Numbers In Chance Cat.

Past Tue...no Other Changes Were Made To Current Pack.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 86 61 89 66 / 0 0 0 10
Btr 88 64 90 68 / 0 0 10 20
Msy 86 70 89 73 / 10 10 10 20
Gpt 87 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 10

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-14-2006 05:42 PM

Fxus64 Klix 142018
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
318 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 14 2006

.discussion...

A Stationary Front Remains Stalled Over The Coastal Waters
Today...and Will Linger Over The Region Through Saturday. This Is
Mainly Due To A Lack Of Overall Forcing Behind The Front...as
Evidenced By A Fairly Stable Heights In The Region Today. Given
That The Front Will Be In The Vicinity...have Kept A Low Chance Of
Pops In For The Coastal Zones Through Tomorrow. Over The Remainder
Of The Cwa...strong Subsidence And A Deep Layer Of Dry Air In The
Middle And Upper Levels Of The Atmosphere Will Continue To Limit
Cloud Development And Lead To Dry Conditions Through Tomorrow.
Temperatures Will Near Normal As Overall 1000-500mb Thicknesses
Remain In The Lower 570 Range

Going Into The Weekend...the Stationary Front Over The Coastal
Waters Will Begin To Feel The Influence Of A Developing Trough In
The Northern Rockies And Plains. As A Result...some Moisture
Advection Will Begin To Set Up Across The Western Gulf...as
Southerly Flow On The Backside Of The Ridge Over The Southeast
Takes Shape. A Decent Theta E Ridge Will Set Up Across East Texas
And Western Louisiana On Saturday...but It Appears That The
Moisture Will Be Slower To Return To Much Of Southeast Louisiana
And Southern Mississippi...as A More Easterly Flow Remains In
Place On Saturday. However...the Flow Will Begin To Shift To The
South On Sunday...allowing For Some Isolated Pops To Be Mentioned
In The Cwa Due To Some Weak Isentropic Lift Developing. This
Moisture Advection Will Strengthen Sunday Night...as A 25 Knot Low
Level Jet Develops Across The Region...in Advance Of The Deepening
Trough In The Plains And Midwest. By Monday...a Deep Tropical
Airmass Will Once Again Be In Place Across The Cwa. At The Same
Time...strong Mid-upper Level Lift Associated With The Upper Level
Torugh Will Allow For Chance Pops. The Front Associated With This
Trough Will Slowly Push Through The Region From Monday Night
Through Wednesday Morning...as The Best Forcing Associated With
The Positively Tilted Trough Becomes Focused On The Mid-atlantic And
Northeast. Frontal Movement Will Be Totally Dependent On Density
Differences Between The Cooler And Drier Airmass Behind The Front
Pushing Into The Warm And Moist Airmass Over The Region.
Overall...ample Lift Will Be In Place To Support Chance Pops
Monday Night Through Tuesday Night. Going Into Wednesday...the
Front Will Slow Clear The Cwa...before Stalling Over The Coastal
Waters Wednesday Night. Taper Off Cloud Cover And Pops From North
To South On Wednesday. High Pressure Will Build Back In On
Thursday...with Strong Subsidence Allowing For Clear Skies And Dry
Conditions.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-15-2006 05:44 AM

Fxus64 Klix 150912
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
412 Am Cdt Fri Sep 15 2006

.discussion...
Stationary Front Over The Northern Gulf Will Begin To Head Back To
The North As A Warm Front Today Bringing Moisture Back To The
Western Portion Of The Area First. Dry Air Will Be Stubborn To
Move Out Of The Miss Gulf Coast Until Sunday. A Pop Gradient Will
Therefore Exist There Literally Splitting At The Pearl River.
Dynamic Influences Will Cause Areas Of Sh/ts Along The Incoming
Cold Front To Split North And South. This Will Cause High Pressure
To Bridge The Southern Part Of The Front. This Scenario Is
Reflected Best In Qpf Values As The Front Moves Through. Looks
Like This Time The Wind Shift...sh/ts...and Trough Axis Will Be
Located With The Cold Frontal Axis. Will Simply Word The Front
Moving Through Tuesday Since Attm Not Real Sure Where Forcing Will
Become Negated And Momentum Will Take Over.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-17-2006 10:30 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
308 Am Cdt Sun Sep 17 2006

.discussion...weather Pattern Continues To Evolve This Morning
With Nocturnal Showers Again Developing Over Portions Of Lower
Southeast Louisiana. This Activity Is Representative Of Increasing
Moisture Profiles Across The Northern Gulf Region Aided By High
Pressure Moving Into The Atlantic Basin Allowing Southerly Flow To
Become Established Across The Region. In Addition...a Potent Upper
Trough Continues To Deepen Across The Northern Plains With
Abundant Energy Out Of Northern Mexico Traversing Northward Along
The Eastern Half Of The Trough Axis. As The Trough Pattern Moves
Eastward...an Associated Cold Front Is Expected To Sweep Through
The Mississippi Valley Mon And Mon Night. With Abundant Moisture
Streaming In From The Gulf...numerous To Widespread Thunderstorms
Are Expected Along And Well Ahead Of The Approaching Boundary.
While Deep Layer Instability Looks Marginal At Best Perhaps
Limiting The Severe Weather Threat...strong Vort Maxes Aloft
Moving Across The Area With The Cold Front Will Pose A Threat For
Heavy Rainfall And Some Strong Thunderstorms. The Front Then Looks
To Move Into The Central Gulf Tue With Drier And Cooler Air
Filtering Into The Region. Pleasant Fall Like Weather Looks To Be
On Tap For The Remainder Of The Work Week Before Yet Another
Potent Cold Front Approaches The Area By Next Weekend.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-18-2006 04:56 AM

Fxus64 Klix 180823
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
323 Am Cdt Mon Sep 18 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning The Cold Front Stretched From Michigan Into
Texas With An Upper-level Low Over The Northern Plains And Trough
Extending Toward West Texas. Ahead Of The Front In The Lower
Mississippi Valley The Precip Water Values Were Around 2.25
Inches. In Addition...the Remnants Of Hurricane Lane Have Moved
Across Mexico And Have Merged With The System In Texas. As The
Front Pushes Eastward Today We Can Expect Widespread
Shower/thunderstorm Activity Across The Area. The Extensive Cloud
Cover In The Area Will Limit Daytime Heating And Instability. Both
The Gfs And Nam Show A Wave Moving East From Texas Into Louisiana
Today And Weakening. The Gfs Is A Little Slower With The Weakening.
This Could Lead To A Small Chance For Severe Weather In The Area.
Otherwise...the Main Threats Will Be Heavy Rainfall.

Behind The Front...we Can Expect Cooler And Dry Weather Through
Thursday. Then The Next System Moves Into The Upper Mississippi
Valley On Friday With A Cold Front Pushing Into Louisiana And
Mississippi. The Gfs Shows This Front Slowing Until The Upper
Trough Digs Into The Plains And Helps To Push The Front Through
Our Area On Saturday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-19-2006 06:23 AM

Fxus64 Klix 190905
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
400 Am Cdt Tue Sep 19 2006

.discussion...
At 06z...upper Air/surface Analysis Revealed A Deep...closed Low
Pressure Area Centered Over Upper Mi With A Trough Axis Into Srn
Plains. At Surface...an Associated Cold Front Extended To Around
Klch. This System Will Continue Se With Rainfall Possible Over
C/pwa Before Tapering Off After 18z Today. As Airmass Significantly
Dries Out...high Pressure Builds Into Region In Wake Of Surface
Front And Rain Ends Over Coastal Waters By 12z Wed. This Surface
High Pressure Will Slowly Shift To Atlantic Seaboard By 18z Thu...as
Another Mid-level Low Pressure Area Develops Over Central Plains.
Return Flow Commences During Same Period...pumping Gulf Moisture
Into Region Ahead Of Next Low Pressure System.

At 18z Thu... A Low Pressure Area Also Develops Over Central Plains
With Associated Cold Front Into Big Bend Of Tx. Models Showing
Differences On Position...with Gfs Trending Further S With Surface
Features Than Nam. Will Stick With Gfs Solutions Attm. Original
Surface Low/500 Mb Low Pushes Ne Across Great Lakes And Eventually
To New England...while This Second Srn Surface Low Lingers Over Srn
Plains Vacillating Over Ok/tx Through Sun. The Associated Elongated
Frontal Boundary Pretty Much Stalls From Oh River Valley To Ok/tx
After 12z Sat. This Boundary Will Help Focus Thunderstorm
Development...especially N Of C/pwa...until 12z Sun. Precip Remains
Possible Over Our C/pwa As Front Aligns Itself From Sc To Srn Tx By
18z Mon. By 06z Tue...high Pressure Builds Through Central U.s. And
Pushes Boundary To Gulfmx.

Marine Forecaster Will Continue Small Craft Exercise Caution
Headline In Marine Zones And Grids For Today. With Good Cold Air
Advection/nw Flow Today...winds Over Tidal And Coastal Waters Will
Remain Up A Bit.

Significant Drying Should Occur Across Nw Zones This Morning.
Tweaked Pops A Bit To Conform With Forecast Trends...as Airmass
Should Finally Dries Out.

Cold Air Advection Should Occur Over Nw Zones Of C/pwa Today And
Continue Through Wed. Coldest Night Will Occur Tonight For Most
Areas Except South Of The Lake. Coldest Night Will Likely Occur Wed
With A Light Ne To E Flow For Areas S Of Lake Pontchartrain. Temps
Will Recover Thu As Return Flow Begins Off Gulfmx. After Wet
Weekend...dry Conditions For The Latter Part Of Next Week.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2006 08:48 AM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
332 Am Cdt Thu Sep 21 2006

.discussion...the Main Forecast Concern For This Package Is The
Rain Chance Through The Weekend. Return Flow Will Commence Today
With Strong Warm Air Advection And Moisture Return Developing By
Tonight In Advance Of Upper Low/trough Currently Over The Great
Basin That Will Deepen Over The Rockies And Northern And Central
Plains Through The End Of The Week Before Weakening And Shifting
East Across The Eastern Conus By The Beginning Of The Next Work
Week. Precipitable Water Values Are Forecast To Increase To Over
Two Inches Tonight And Friday With Values Remaining Near The Two
Inch Mark Until The Cold Front Passage On Sunday. The 00z Mos Guidance
Packages Have Increased Pops Tonight And Especially Friday Which
Looks Reasonable With Such Strong Warm Air Advection And Moisture
Return. In Addition...both The Gfs And Nam Indicate A Weak Mid Level
Short Wave Or Two Traversing The Area In The Southwest Flow Aloft
Later Tonight And Friday. The Timing Of The Next Cold Front Still
Seems To Be On Target For Sunday Over The Land Areas And Sunday
Evening/night Over The Adjacent Coastal Waters. After A Return To
Warmer And More Humid Conditions The Next Few Days...cooler And
Drier Air Will Filter Back Into The Forecast Area For The Upcoming
Work Week. Breezy Conditions Will Develop By Friday With Winds In
The Coastal Waters Increasing To The 15 To 20 Knots Range Later
Tonight And Persisting Through Friday.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2006 05:15 AM

afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
324 am CDT Sat Sep 23 2006


Discussion...the main forecast concern for the morning forecast
package continues to be rain chances through the weekend. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms were being observed across the
forecast area early this morning. However diurnal heating combined
with abundant moisture...precipitable water values around two
inches and surface dew points in the middle 70s...should again result
in scattered convection today although a well defined specific
focusing mechanism will be absent. The deep upper low/trough over
the central Continental U.S. Is forecast to weaken somewhat and open up as it
shifts east into the eastern U.S. By the beginning of the
upcoming work week pushing an associated cold front across the
area Sunday into Sunday night. The NAM remains slightly slower
than the GFS with the frontal passage and was generally followed
for this forecast. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Sunday as the boundary moves across the area and although the best
dynamics will likely remain north of the area...enough shear will
be present for a few strong to isolated severe storms. The
precipitation should clear most of the land zones Sunday evening
and the coastal zones by Monday morning. Drier and cooler air will
return in the wake of the front for the early and middle part of
the next work week. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be in the offing for the end of the week as another upper
trough digs across the central and eastern U.S. And brings another
cold front across the forecast area Thursday night into Friday.
However...since it appears that deep moisture will be lacking...rain
chances should be fairly small.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-24-2006 09:10 PM

Fxus64 Klix 242024
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
324 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2006

.discussion...

This Afternoon The Line Of Showers/thunderstorms Had Pushed Into
Extreme Southeast Louisiana And Coastal Mississippi. The Cold Front
Had Moved Near The Northwesetern Portion Of Our Pcwa. The Earlier
Convection Has Stabilized Much Of The Area...therefore The
Convection For The Remainder Of This Afternoon Into The Early
Evening Hours Over Land Should Be Somewhat Limited. The Front
Will Push Into The Coastal Waters Tonight With High Pressure
Building In Behind The Front. Temps Should Be Fairly Cool With
Lows Dropping Into The 50s Across The Northshore And South
Mississippi Areas Starting On Monday Night. As Winds Turn To The
Northeast Wednesday Morning The Temps May Drop To Near 60 In New
Orleans.

The Next System Will Drop Into The Plains On Thursday And Push
Through The Lower Mississippi Valley On Thursday Night/friday
Morning. The Gfs Shows This Frontal Passage A Little Earlier Than
Previous Runs And A Little Wetter. For Now We Will Keep The Pops
In The Slight Chance Category.

&&