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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-24-2012 05:53 AM
54F temp and 41F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be around 70F with a 70% chance of rain this afternoon/tonight.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
COAST...NEAR PORT FOURCHON AND SOUTH OF BOOTHVILLE. DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEW POINTS AT
LEAST 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT IN MANY AREAS NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 60S TO THE SOUTH. FOG APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A
MARINE ISSUE...AND ONLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL CANCEL
THE LAND BASED ADVISORY BUT CONTINUE THE MARINE ONE UNTIL ITS
EXPIRATION AT 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY MUCH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IS RATHER DRY THIS MORNING...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS SEEN ON
THE 295K AND 300K CHARTS...WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN THINGS UP AND BE
NEAR SATURATION BY AFTERNOON NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE DURING THE DAY. AS BOUNDARY
SHIFTS NORTH TONIGHT...ENTIRE AREA WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE WARM
SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS APPROPRIATE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE QUIET PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...AWAITING
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION. SEVERE CONVECTION IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR THURSDAY. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COULD BE A PROBLEM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ASSUMING THAT CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF DOES NOT CUT OFF THE MOISTURE INFLOW AS IT DID ON
JANUARY 9TH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAYS
FRONT...AND CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT
BE UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE PAST WEEK...BUT IN ACTUALITY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WILL MOVE
INLAND AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS LIFT INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO THE MVFR CATEGORY
IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE MAV AND LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE ARE A BIT SLOWER TO BRING IN THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE MET
GUIDANCE FASTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT
AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG. AREAS PF RAIN...SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY REACHED ITS SOUTHERNMOST
POINT...SO WILL CLASSIFY IT AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT BISECTS THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...THEN
EXTENDS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
TO COASTAL TERREBONNE PARISH. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY NEAR 15 KNOTS AT A COUPLE OF THE CMAN
OBSERVATIONS...WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER EAST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGED FROM 2 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS AND WAVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN START
TO VEER TO EAST OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN WATERS...AND AROUND 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE A FEW KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACH. A LONG FETCH OF 17 TO 20 KNOTS SOUTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THEN A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF
THE MARINE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD EASE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...BUT MODEL DATA...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF...SHOWS
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR ON SATURDAY THAT COULD
BRING WINDS AND WAVES BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN IF THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT. 22/TD
&&
DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...GREEN...HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO BLUE OR YELLOW IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS.
DEPLOYED...MORIAL CONVENTION CENTER-NOLA FOR AMS CONVENTION.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 56 75 62 / 50 60 30 70
BTR 73 62 78 65 / 60 50 40 70
ASD 71 58 74 64 / 60 50 20 60
MSY 70 61 75 63 / 70 40 30 60
GPT 68 59 72 64 / 60 50 20 60
PQL 71 56 75 63 / 50 50 20 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-25-2012 07:28 AM
65F temp and 64F dewpoint this morning. The high today will be in the middle 70's under cloudy skies and a 30% chance of rain after noon. Thursday is going to be wet.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPEARS TO BE NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
WITH THE WARM FRONT ALOFT NEAR THE ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS EXPECTED. NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE
COMMONPLACE. ONLY REAL RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE AT LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT...AND IN THE GULFPORT-BILOXI AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
59 AT BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB TO 68 AT NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ALL VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR ABOVE AT 4 AM...AND WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WIND...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG...SO WILL CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH ZONE ISSUANCE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. UPPER AND
SURFACE LOWS WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENTIRE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN ACTION
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
HIGH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A LOW CAPE HIGH
SHEAR EVENT WITH CAPES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 1000 AND
INSTABILITIES AROUND -2. SPC HAS AREAS TO THE WEST OUTLOOKED FOR
LATE TONIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...CUTTING OFF THE BEST MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE AREA. THERE
ARE HINTS OF THIS IN THE VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS
IN THE NAM/GFS/WRF SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE
SEVERE IN THE HWO...BUT NOT MENTION IN ZFP AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR PRECIPITATION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO REAL COLD
AIR TO WORK WITH SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR LATE JANUARY. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY...HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SATELLITE LOOPS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
CLEARING TREND IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM JUST SOUTH OF KHUM TO
JUST SOUTH OF KMSY AND KNBG...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THERE ACROSS
THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMSY AND KNEW
MAY SEE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF VFR WITH GOOD VSBYS AND FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS. WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE
SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA AND LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO IFR ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
SOME FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...AND IS NEARING THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OF ONE QUARTER MILE TO ONE MILE ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY...EXCEPT 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE MIDDLE LEGS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING
SOUTHWEST PASS. A LONG FETCH OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DEEP INTO EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE VALID FOR TODAY STARTING AT 9 AM.
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DUE TO THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
MID LEVEL STORM...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL EASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY SHOULD BRING WINDS AND WAVES
BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 22/TD
&&
DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...BLUE...HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO YELLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY DUE TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN THREATS.
DEPLOYED...MORIAL CONVENTION CENTER-NOLA FOR AMS CONVENTION.
ACTIVATION...INCREASED WFO STAFFING STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 62 72 49 / 30 80 90 30
BTR 78 64 73 50 / 40 80 90 20
ASD 75 64 73 52 / 30 70 90 40
MSY 76 64 73 53 / 30 70 90 30
GPT 72 64 71 55 / 20 70 90 50
PQL 74 63 72 57 / 20 40 90 60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-26-2012 07:03 AM
65F temp and dewpoint with heavy rain this morning. Solid lightning as the squall line approached, and we've gotten about .75 inches of rain so far. Rain should end around 10ish here on the Northshore, and temps will start falling as the winds shift to the NW dropping into the 50's tonight. Weekend weather looks great.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
542 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TORNADO WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
EXPANDED/ISSUED UNTIL NOON CST FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...ROUGHLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR TYLERTOWN TO HAMMOND TO THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER WEST OF HOUMA...AND SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20
NAUTICAL MILES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE OPENING INTO A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST LAND AREAS BY NOON
AND THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SHEAR...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...CANALS...AND SMALL STREAMS. VERY
LOCALIZED...MORE SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
TRAINING OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURS. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING EAST...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL...NEARLY
STATIONARY BANDS OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. HAVE TAPERED THE POP
FROM CHANCE CATEGORY WEST TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH A
DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
A GENERALLY CALMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST BY MONDAY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN
A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL ABOVE NORMAL WINTER OF 2011/2012
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL NOT SEND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY...THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE THE GFS
DEVELOPS A RIDGE. HAVE NOT GONE ANY HIGHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH ANY GIVEN SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A COMBINATION OF TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO SUPPORT WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...AND CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS.
WIND AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THE REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE
NORTHEAST WINDS TO APPROACH 20 KNOTS BRIEFLY AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BREEZY...NEAR 15 KNOTS...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS LAND AREAS.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 44 64 42 / 60 10 0 10
BTR 70 47 67 46 / 40 10 0 10
ASD 73 45 67 41 / 90 10 0 10
MSY 72 51 65 47 / 80 10 0 10
GPT 74 48 67 43 / 90 10 0 10
PQL 76 47 68 38 / 90 10 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND
WASHINGTON.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...AND WALTHALL.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-26-2012 08:14 AM
...
Quote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
712 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 745 AM CST
* AT 712 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VENICE...OR
24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BOOTHVILLE
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-27-2012 06:23 AM
47F temp and 45F dewpoint under starry skies this morning. The inch or so of rain we got here on the Northshore yesterday has been sucked into the ground. The high today will be in the upper 60's under sunny skies and low humidity, then a low overnight in the lower 40's.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD
...NOW WELL INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FALLING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
BRING IN THE DRIER AIR. CLOUD CLEARING LINE IS THROUGH BATON ROUGE
AND MCCOMB AND NOW APPROACHING TIDAL LAKES. WILL LIKELY BE
COMPLETELY CLEAR NEAR SUNRISE OR CLOSE TO THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN TODAY WHICH WILL LEND TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...STILL A FEW ABOVE NORMAL AS COLD AIR STILL NOT HERE YET.
SO JUST CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND SENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING US
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT BY MUCH AND ONLY BRIEFLY. WE WILL SEE 2
NIGHTS OF LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN TO
FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
RETURN GULF FLOW BY MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
MONDAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR 70 HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA....FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE/S STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS
ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE HOW
MUCH RAIN DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY AS IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ACTIVITY.
ATTM...LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE WITH JUST SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT MODELS DO
SHOW INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CLEARING
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLE COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
LAYER OF STRATUS WITH CIGS 2200-3500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS OUT SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLR. STRONGER WINDS AT KMSY AND KNEW ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 15Z TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO EASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEPARTS AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 7 AM...BUT WILL KEEP A CAUTION HEADLINE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM NEAR SHORE AND NOON OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE
SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 FEET A BIT LONGER EVEN AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL OFF NICELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST OVER THE AREA.
REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING
NORTHEAST WINDS BACK UP TO NEAR 15 KNOTS SATURDAY EVENING...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EASING
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. 22/TD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 41 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 67 44 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 67 40 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 65 47 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 66 42 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 67 39 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-28-2012 06:38 AM
36F temp and 35F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be in the mid 60's with sunny skies. Sunday will be an instant replay of today.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CWA IS BREAKING DOWN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE AREA. THAT BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. EXPECT A MID MORNING ARRIVAL FOR NWRN ZONES AND
THEN STEADY PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE DEPEND ON LOCATION IN THE CWA. SWRN
MISSISSIPPI AND NWRN BATON ROUGE AREAS WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH
AS OTHERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN. EXPECT LOWER TO MID 60 HIGHS
THERE. UPPER 60S HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVER
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY.
AS SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES IN TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. THOUGH WINDS LIKELY WONT FALL TO CALM...SHOULD
STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH...IN COMBINATION WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND
CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT QUITE LOW. SOUTHERN MS
COUNTIES TO SEE NEAR FREEZING LOWS WHILE NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTHWARD TO
HAVE LOW 40S.
.LONG TERM...
DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY KEEPING THE TREND OF
INCREASING MID WEEK POPS. MODELS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS WHERE A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH RETURN GULF FLOW BY MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR 70 HIGHS THE REST OF
THE WEEK. MARINE TYPE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER
POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HEATING TO LEND TO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTER...SO HAVE
ADDED THAT TO FCST. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...EXPECT
EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF RAIN. CURRENT FCST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH RAIN CHANCES VARYING FROM 40 TO 60 PCT. WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT AND SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF CLEARING WITH THE FCST.
STILL TO HAVE SHOWERS ONGOING FROM AROUND NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARING SOON AFTER.
CLEAR AND COOL FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS OFF OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL RESULT IN STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AT KMSY AND KNEW. 11
&&
.MARINE...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND THEN SHIFT EAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE 15 TO 20
KNOTS RANGE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 63 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 65 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 67 33 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 66 42 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 67 35 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 67 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-29-2012 08:04 AM
36F temp and 29F dewpoint this morning. The high today will be in the lower 60's under sunny skies. A new cold front forecasted for Wednesday.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OF AIR AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OR THE WORK
WEEK. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL OR WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. 11
.LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF RAIN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE OFFING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ALONG
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AT MID WEEK IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ABOUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. COLDER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 12 KNOTS AT KMSY AND KNEW
THROUGH 15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 15Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ALOFT BEGIN TO WEAKEN FOR THOSE TERMINALS. ALL OTHERS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED. THESE SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY FALL OFF THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSE
TO THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO...WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE MID MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO ROTATE FROM NORTHEAST TODAY TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
LATER ON MONDAY. LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST UNTIL NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT
BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT...HAVE GONE WITH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FROPA IN THE COASTAL WATERS PER GFS.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 33 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 63 37 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 63 32 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 63 41 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 63 33 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 63 31 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-30-2012 06:15 AM
33F temp and 32F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be in the upper 60's with sunny skies. Good chance of rain on Wednesday.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING AND DAY SHAPING UP TODAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE ALLOWING SMOKE TO POOL NEAR THE
GROUND MAINLY IN ORLEANS PARISH ALONG INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN
INTERSTATE 510 AND THE TWIN SPAN BRIDGES. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY LOW IN AREAS AT TIMES ALONG THE INTERSTATE AND CAN BE
PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING FOR RUSH HOUR. WILL BE REISSUING SPS FOR
ST. TAMMANY AND ORLEANS PARISH TO UPDATE AND COVER THE MORNING
COMMUTE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW FROM THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THINGS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM
TEXAS BEGINS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE WHICH IS PLAYING A
ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME OF THE RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME AREAS OF 2 PLUS INCH RAINFALL MAKING IT TO
THE COAST FOR THE PERIOD BUT GUIDANCE FROM HPC KEEPS THE TOTALS
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE LAND AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MAY BE
NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SOUTHSHORE AND SPECIFICALLY THE COASTAL
AREAS FROM TERREBONNE OVER TO ST. BERNARD. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT
OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THAT
PERIOD WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO.
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN EITHER MAIN MODEL
SOLUTION. MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE TIMING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO BE THE ISSUE. THE GFS BRINGS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND NOW TAKES A MUCH
SLOWER TREK THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH SATURDAY
AS THE LIKELY TARGET OF THE BULK OF THE RAIN. WITH THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY HAD TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. DID NOT GO ALL THE WAY
TO GUIDANCE AS A 10 PLUS DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES DID NOT SEEM
PRUDENT GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE UNCERTAINTY. BASICALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NEW
GUIDANCE IN DEFERENCE TO THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ALL OF THAT SAID...ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND PERIOD INCLUDING MONDAY IF THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION
PANS OUT.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIRRUS CLOUDS IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF STATES IS STEADILY MOVING EAST
AND SHOULD BE IN THE ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO CONTINUE VEERING FROM EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CAUSE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN ONSHORE POSSIBLY INTO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA...ALONG
WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE TROUGH PASSES
BEFORE SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. THE MAIN FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WONT
PASS TILL SATURDAY. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 45 72 54 / 0 0 10 20
BTR 70 51 73 58 / 0 0 10 30
ASD 67 47 72 56 / 0 0 10 30
MSY 69 53 73 60 / 0 0 10 30
GPT 66 49 71 56 / 0 0 10 30
PQL 67 46 71 55 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-31-2012 06:32 AM
56F temp and 53F dewpoint this morning under partly cloudy skies. Today's high will be in the upper 70's with a 20% chance of rain, increasing to an 80% chance tonight. Next predicted cold front pushed back to Sunday/Sunday night.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
513 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
.SUNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A SOUTHERN
BRANCH JETSTREAM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. A
LARGE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.
.SHORT TERM...
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND RAIN...MAINLY STARTING THIS EVENING...BUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT NORMALLY THE HIGHEST IN THESE PATTERNS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 03Z SREF WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING AND SLIGHT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
A PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN SHIFT EAST WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE IN
PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST OR
COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. ANY LEFTOVER RAIN TO THE EAST
WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION WILL BE A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. 22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
OVC090. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO AROUND BKN025 WITH A
SECOND DECK AT ABOUT OVC050. SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR AT SOME SITES
TODAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF WITH PREVAILING GROUPS CONTAINING PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER 03Z. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS BUT
MAY HAVE TO TEMPO A GROUP FOR TS.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
RETREATING RIDGE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING A BRIEF INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLY INTO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA...ALONG WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE TROUGH PASSES BEFORE SOUTHEAST
WINDS RETURN. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 57 71 56 / 10 40 60 20
BTR 74 61 75 60 / 10 50 60 20
ASD 73 59 72 56 / 10 60 80 20
MSY 74 60 73 58 / 20 70 80 20
GPT 71 59 69 55 / 10 60 90 20
PQL 73 57 71 54 / 10 60 90 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-01-2012 07:35 AM
65F temp and dewpoint this morning under cloudy skies with some light rain falling. The high today will be in the mid 70's with a 70% chance of rain.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN A WEAK AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSSIBLY BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SUBTLE WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER
JET OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE
OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THAT OVERALL THE CELLS ARE NOW WEAKENING.
IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER CELLS WITH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AROUND TWO INCHES
IN PORTIONS OF WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. MODELS FORECAST THE 85H THETAE AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1.3 INCHES OR SO. AS A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED FOR 06Z 0 TO 3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 UNITS...BUT THESE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...IT
APPEARS AS IF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RULE
THE DAY. ANY SEVERE OR STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOCALIZED.
THE MAIN LIFT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE KEYED IN ON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. HAVE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY...AND THIS CONVECTION MAY SPILL
OVER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. 11
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CLOSES OFF.
THE GFS STILL IS THE FASTEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY WHICH CLEARS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND...TAKES ITS SWEET TIME IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY DOES NOT HAVE IT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DECIDED TO DO A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING HOURS DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. 11/32
&&
.MARINE...
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR MOST OF THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND THE SOUNDS TODAY DUE TO A SWELL TRAIN
RESULTING IN WAVES UP TO 6 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 11/32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 55 73 57 / 70 10 20 30
BTR 76 58 74 59 / 70 10 20 30
ASD 75 56 74 58 / 70 20 20 30
MSY 76 58 76 60 / 70 20 20 30
GPT 74 57 74 58 / 70 20 20 30
PQL 74 56 73 57 / 70 30 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.