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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-15-2012 09:02 AM
30F temp and 29F dewpoint this morning. The high today will be in the mid 60's under sunny skies. Monday's high should reach 70F with partly cloudy skies, and then a chance of rain overnight into Tuesday.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
719 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2012
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES VERY CHILLY
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE VERY
NEAR THE SURFACE CAUSING SOME ISOLATED ISSUES WITH FOG THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER EXTREMELY STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND AROUND 3000 FEET. THAT STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH CALM WINDS
AT THE SURFACE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE FOG ISSUES THIS MORNING.
WINDS ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST.
98/SO
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2012/
SHORT TERM...
A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH ON THE
FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW. ONE OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW TO MID-LEVEL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT
FLOW SHOULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH BY TONIGHT TO LIMIT ANY FOG
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
BY TOMORROW...A FIRST WEAK IMPULSE WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO TRANSPORT SOME
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF SOUTH. WITH THIS MOISTURE
IN PLACE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY FACTOR
LIMITING RAINFALL WOULD A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE AREA.
FORTUNATELY...THAT WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND
WILL ALSO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FORM IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
BAROCLINICITY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
THE MIDWEST...COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE FORCED
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE HAS LED TO KEEPING IN LIKELY POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THE RISK OF SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...SO
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A GOOD 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM...
FORTUNATELY...THE COLD SNAP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE VERY
LONG LIVED...AS THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL
BE NO MASSIVE ARCTIC SURGE. OVERALL...READINGS WILL NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN AND ALLOWS FOR INCREASED
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
WARM RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF QUICKLY
REDEVELOPS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE MID-LEVELS.
JUST AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING IMPULSE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE OMEGA VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE BIT HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY WARM...WITH READINGS RISING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEKEND...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN. 7
AVIATION...
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG CONDITIONS IN CHECK.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF PATCHY MVFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
USUAL FOGGY SPOTS. 7
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 47 70 60 / 0 10 10 40
BTR 68 51 74 62 / 0 10 10 40
ASD 63 47 71 61 / 0 10 10 30
MSY 65 54 73 62 / 0 10 10 30
GPT 62 50 70 61 / 0 10 10 20
PQL 63 44 71 60 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-16-2012 08:13 AM
51F temp and 50F dewpoint this morning. Today's high will be in the upper 70's under cloudy skies. There is a 30% chance of rain tonight, and 70% chance on tuesday.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
304 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS THE AREA IN
RETURN FLOW...WHICH IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED. AFTER
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMED OUT DURING THE EVENING IN EASTERN
SECTIONS...READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED INTO
THE AREA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE BEING OBSERVED ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN. WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...FOG APPEARS TO BE
LESS OF A THREAT THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. AT 3 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 44 AT PASCAGOULA AND SLIDELL TO 59 AT GALLIANO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT THE SPRINKLES ON THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
ON NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH GFS BEING SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN NAM AND
ECMWF. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ON TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR
TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE FRONT WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
THIS FRONT...AND WILL ONLY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
AFTER PASSAGE OF FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE WELL ENOUGH ESTABLISHED FRIDAY FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA...AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED IN
SCOPE AND AMOUNT. AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO TEMPO MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS AT MOST
SITES FOR THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE ANY ISSUES SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR UP UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY RAIN COULD
RETURN. SHRA AND EVEN TSRA WILL RETURN TUE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER 7 HRS NOW AND WILL BECOME
MODERATE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE SRN
PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO OFFSHORE AND PICK UP TO SCY
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUSTAINED AT 20-25KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 8 FT. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WED EVN WITH ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY
RETURNING LATE THU MORNING. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 59 75 38 / 10 30 70 30
BTR 75 62 78 44 / 10 30 70 30
ASD 71 61 75 44 / 10 20 70 40
MSY 73 62 75 46 / 10 20 70 40
GPT 69 61 73 45 / 10 10 70 40
PQL 71 58 74 45 / 10 10 70 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-17-2012 05:50 AM
A mild and muggy 62F temp and 60F dewpoint this morning. No rain since midnight, but, radar showing light rain just to our West. The high today will be in the low 70's with a 60% chance of rain today and tonight. Cooler weather on Wednesday and Thursday with another warmup and chance of rain towards the weekend.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR ST. LOUIS WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST
TEXAS. MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS READINGS IN MOST
AREAS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE NEAR ST. LOUIS MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY...ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE APPARENT THAT WOULD
ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH PREDOMINANT
MODE BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
WILL KEEP HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST
POPS...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS. ALL AREAS WILL BE
DRY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE COOLER
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVES REMAIN RATHER WEAK UNTIL A STRONGER ONE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ONLY ONE OF NOTE WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND NO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CONTINUING THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THIS TO NOT
LAST TOO MUCH LONGER AS AT A MINIMUM MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE ALL TERMINALS TODAY IF NOT BY LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS
OVER MOST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 1500-2500 BUT
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1200 FT. VSBYS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE UNTIL
RAIN BEGINS TO FALL WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPEDE ON OUR
TERMINALS IN THE NW POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 15/18Z BUT MORE LIKELY
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND WELL INTO THE
EVN HRS ACROSS THE SERN TERMINALS. THERE WILL EVEN BE A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOKING FOR MORE SHRA WHICH COULD DROP
VSBYS DOWN TO 2-3SM. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST TERMINALS
BY 6Z WED. COASTAL MS TERMINALS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE FROPA AND
THAT COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 6Z WED. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE HAS CONTINUED WITH WINDS OF 15-20KTS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TIDAL LAKES. THE SFC LOW HAS
MOVED INTO IL NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NE. THIS
WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE
WED. THE MODERATE TO EVEN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ONGOING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES INTO THE AFTN HRS. WINDS WILL SLACK OFF SOME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE GRADIENT DUE TO THE SFC LOW
PULLING AWAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY FALLING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT LEAST. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND 20 KTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS WHICH WOULD REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF A SCY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS CAA IS
FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES BACK
INTO THE REGION BY WED EVN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION EARLY SAT BUT THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OVER THE
REGION AND NOT PUSH INTO THE GULF. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 38 56 33 / 70 40 10 0
BTR 78 44 59 37 / 70 50 10 0
ASD 74 45 58 35 / 60 60 10 0
MSY 75 47 58 41 / 50 60 10 0
GPT 73 46 59 35 / 50 60 10 0
PQL 74 46 59 32 / 50 60 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-18-2012 06:18 AM
45F temp and 41F dewpoint this morning under clear skies. The high today will be around 60F under sunny skies, and into the mid 30's tonight. Warmer weather returns on Friday.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
318 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL EXCEPT FAR LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH OF THAT DRY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS RUNS
FROM ABOUT PICAYUNE TO LAKE MAUREPAS TO PATTERSON. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM MID 40S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO MID 60S IN LOWER
PLAQUEMINES PARISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
THIS COLD SHOT WILL BE EXTREMELY BRIEF...WITH ONLY ONE COLD NIGHT
EXPECTED. AND EVEN AT THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE 70S BY FRIDAY...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
ALL MODELS TAKE A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...WASHING OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY. WHILE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS AS THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. BEYOND THAT...SPREAD IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
BECOMES LARGER. ECMWF SOLUTION MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW
24 HOURS AGO FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
BY 8Z COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
CLEARING LINE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF BTR...NORTH OF ASD...AND JUST
STARTING TO ENTER THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH MSY BY 10Z AND THEN FINALLY GET THROUGH PQL SHORTLY
AFTER 11Z. ONCE THAT HAPPENS VFR CONDITIONS WILL SET UP AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST. AS FOR WINDS...AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEY QUICKLY JUMPED UP OUT OF THE NORTH BUT JUST AS
QUICKLY AS THEY JUMPED UP THEY HAVE DROPPED BACK DOWN WITH MCB AND
BTR NOW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AND THIS WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ONCE THE CLEARING LINE MOVES BY. TWO EXCEPTIONS COULD
BE MSY AND NEW WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE COULD KEEP THINGS A TAD
BREEZIER BUT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
JUST ENOUGH CAA AND RISING PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A
SHORT PERIOD OF SCY CONDITIONS. BY 13Z WINDS WILL BACK OFF
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND MS SOUND WITH THE INNER AND
OUTER WATERS FOLLOWING SUIT AROUND 16/17Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AROUND 15-17KTS DURING THE MIDDAY HRS SO WILL BACK LOAD THE
SCY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR A FEW HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLACK OFF THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THEN QUICKLY TO OUR EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE
QUICKLY RETURNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SAT BUT WILL LIKELY STALL RIGHT OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE COAST SAT AFTN/EVN LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 56 36 67 53 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 59 40 70 57 / 0 0 10 10
ASD 59 36 68 55 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 59 43 69 58 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 60 38 66 56 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 62 34 67 55 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-18-2012 08:32 AM
![[Image: openhouse.jpg]](http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/lix/openhouse.jpg)
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[TD] [/TD]
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The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Slidell is proud to announce our upcoming Open House to kickoff the new Weather-Ready Nation initiative. We sincerely hope that you will join us for an exciting day at the office. If you would like to learn about the Weather-Ready Nation plan, please visit: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/
When: Saturday, January 21, 2012
Time: 10AM to 3PM
Where: National Weather Service Forecast Office
62300 Airport Road, Slidell, LA, 70460
Time: 10AM to 3PM
Where: National Weather Service Forecast Office
62300 Airport Road, Slidell, LA, 70460
Cost: FREE!!!
Events and Activities include:
- Take a guided tour of the office and visit various operational meteorology desks
- Witness a weather balloon launch
- Participate in various hands-on weather and environmental activities for children
- Take a "ride" in the Hahnville Fire Department's tornado safety trailer
- See an actual marine buoy from the National Data Buoy Center
At 12:30PM there will be a press conference open to the public to officially kickoff the National Weather Service's new Weather-Ready Nation initiative. Speakers will include Dr. Kathryn Sullivan of NOAA, the Director of the National Weather Service, Dr. Jack Hayes and Ken Graham, Meteorologist-in-Charge of the NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge forecast office. The list of speakers is still being finalized, so check back here for additional details as the event nears.
Directions:
From Baton Rouge: Take Interstate 12 East to Airport Road (Exit 80). Take a left on Airport Road and proceed to the end of the road, past the Royal Golf Club. The Weather Service Office is on the right.
From New Orleans/Mississippi Gulf Coast: Take Interstate 10 to Interstate 12 West and proceed to Airport Road (Exit 80). Take a right onto Airport Road and proceed to the end of the road, past the Royal Golf Club. The Weather Service Office is on the right.
Parking will be at the St. Tammany Mosquito Abatement building next door to our office.
![[Image: openhousemap.png]](http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/lix/openhousemap.png)
Map of t
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-19-2012 07:46 AM
33F temp and 32F dewpoint this morning. The high today will be around 70F under sunny skies. The warmup continues through the weekend with an expected high of 80F on Sunday and good chance of rain.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CST THU JAN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME THIN
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...AND STRATUS ON
THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS DEVELOPED ON THE TEXAS COAST
AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES ARE A GOOD 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW READINGS 24 HOURS AGO...GENERALLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTH
OF UPPER VORTS MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. GFS EMPHASIZES
SATURDAY IMPULSE MORE THAN NAM/ECMWF...BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA...WHERE THE OTHER TWO MODELS LEAVE THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD NAM/ECMWF...WHICH FITS WITH EARLIER
FORECAST. THIS KEEPS POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER INCH...EXPECTED.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY...TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AND ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT AND ACCEPTED. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
STRONGER UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
NEITHER SYSTEM HAS ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND IT FOR THE GULF SOUTH.
HAVE NOT BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES TOO MUCH QUITE YET DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST DAY...TUESDAY...STILL BEING ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE
THAT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. A TOP 10 WARMEST JANUARY IS WITHIN
REACH BASED ON FORECAST TRENDS. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 20/00Z BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS LOWER INTO UPPER END MVFR RANGE AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT.
24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND GRADIENT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLAINS STATES. NEXT FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST SATURDAY WITH BETTER
FRONT ENTERING NORTH GULF MONDAY. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...GREEN
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
NON-ACTIVATION...MONITORING TANGIPAHOA RIVER NR OSYKA (OSYM6)
MONITORING CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LYING SMOKE
ALONG I-10 NEAR NEW ORLEANS EAST.
WRN OPEN HOUSE PREPARATIONS FOR SATURDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 55 74 62 / 10 10 20 30
BTR 71 60 77 65 / 10 10 20 30
ASD 69 56 73 63 / 10 10 20 30
MSY 70 59 74 63 / 10 10 20 30
GPT 67 56 71 63 / 10 10 20 30
PQL 68 54 72 61 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-20-2012 07:08 AM
Foggy, humid and 64F temp with a 64F dewpoint this morning. Today's high will be in the mid 70's under cloudy skies with a 20% chance of rain. Warm and wet this weekend.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEMARCATES LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR
EXTENDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO NEAR MEMPHIS...TO NORTH TEXAS...TO
LOWS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND WYOMING. LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AT 3 AM...AND FOG AT MCCOMB. ISOLATED
SHOWERS RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS BEING RECORDED. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S...WITH EVEN THE CURRENT DEW POINTS
EXCEEDING THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE AT MOST SITES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM COMING A LITTLE MORE INTO LINE WITH
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA BEFORE WASHING
OUT. FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG SOMEWHAT BETTER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
WATER TEMPERATURES.
BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF AREA...AND LAPSE RATES OVER OUR AREA
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES
NORTH. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS. SHOULD SNEAK IN ONE DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CAME IN CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO
LITTLE CHANGE MADE. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
GFS IS WAY MORE AGGRESSIVE...AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
SOMEWHAT WEAKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE GREATLY. GFS KEEPS PATTERN
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH IN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF AND GEM CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM 00Z GEFS AND 12Z
ECMWF HAS MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE
REFLECTIVE OF GFS SOLUTION AND WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. COOLING BEHIND MONDAY AND THURSDAY FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...AND ONLY LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL AT WORST. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT MANY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE INDUCED IFR TO LIFR VSBY AT KMCB
WHICH MAY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE AND VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A GENERAL LOWERING TO
IFR CEIILNGS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY KEEP FOG LIMITED TO PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. 24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEH TEXAS PANHANDLE. ASSOCIATED FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO STALL INITIALLY NORTH OF THE COAST BEFORE
RESURGENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEKEND FINALLY PUSHES THE
FRONT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY BUT MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A RATHER QUICK RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...GREEN
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
NON-ACTIVATION...MONITORING FOG ON LK PONTCHARTRAIN CAUSEWAY.
IFR CEILINGS AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WRN OPEN HOUSE PREPARATIONS FOR SATURDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 62 73 59 / 20 20 40 10
BTR 77 64 76 63 / 20 20 30 10
ASD 74 63 75 60 / 20 20 30 20
MSY 75 63 75 62 / 20 20 30 10
GPT 72 63 72 59 / 20 20 30 20
PQL 75 62 75 58 / 20 20 40 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-21-2012 06:34 AM
64F temp and dewpoint this morning and muggy. The high today will be in the upper 70's under cloudy skies with a 30% chance of rain. Sunday to be an instant replay of today.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
...WEATHER-READY NATION OPEN HOUSE TODAY AT WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION AT THIS TIME WITH
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND IT INITIALLY. AREA DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH SOME PRE-DAWN CONVECTION ACTIVATING
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR JACKSON MS TO NATCHEZ. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR WITH THIS FEATURE. AREA
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS CURRENTLY.
.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY DUE TO
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...THEREBY PROVIDING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO TODAY`S CONVECTION. LOCAL ROS OUTPUT DOES HAVE A
FEW INDICATIONS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT WRF
MODEL UNDERPLAYS CONVECTION FOR TODAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE OVERDONE ON AREAL EXTENT. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN 30-40 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND WILL ASSESS A LITTLE MORE INTO CONVECTIVE
INTEGRITY PRIOR TO ISSUING HWO. FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS AND LIFT
TO REGION BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW
ALL DAY THOUGH ANTICIPATED LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY
DEVIATE FLOW ON A LOCAL SCALE TO PROVIDE INCREASED CONVERGENCE.
PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE STRAIGHTLINE WINDS THOUGH WATERSPOUTS AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SHOULD LOCALIZED HELICITY DEVELOP IN
THE SCENARIO DESCRIBED. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL PRETTY CLOSE
TO THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS MOVING TO THE LA-MS BORDER BY
TONIGHT. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE PRIOR TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. SECOND IN SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPS RAPIDLY IN CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. PACIFIC
ORIGIN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...
FOCUS WILL BE ON LOW LATITUDE SYSTEM IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING ON RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BUT ARE TRENDING
TO A SOLUTION OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT
EJECTS NEGATIVELY TILTED INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS WELL AS A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IF THE ECMWF INDICATED TRACK OF UPPER LOW
MATERIALIZES. AT THIS TIME WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FROM WED
AND BEYOND. LOCAL HOVMOLLER APPROACH FAVORS BETTER SYSTEM
OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY AND NOT MUCH INDICATION FOR FRIDAY SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A BACKDROP TO AMS CONVENTION TAKING PLACE
NEXT WEEK IN NEW ORLEANS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT MANY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL NOT BE
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO SHOW A PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP AT ANY
PARTICULAR SITE. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AND VARY FROM IFR
TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING BKN AND SCT FOR A
FEW SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME FOG CONDITIONS LOWERING
VIS TO AROUND 2SM TONIGHT AND CEIILNGS AROUND 1500 CAN BE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE
MORNING BUT WILL EASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL INITIALLY NORTH OF THE
COAST BEFORE RESURGENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEKEND
FINALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY BUT MAY
ONLY BE MARGINALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A RATHER QUICK
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...BLUE FOR GENERAL THUNDER.
DEPLOYED...OPEN HOUSE SIMULATION IN OFFICE PARKING LOT.
ACTIVATION...HIGH IMPACT DESK SIMULATION
ER-MET DESK SIMULATION
COMMUNICATIONS DESK SIMULATION
AMATEUR RADIO NETWORK ACTIVATED 1000-1500.
NON-ACTIVATION...WRN OPEN HOUSE TODAY
MONITORING TSTM POTENTIAL FOR TODAY
BALLOON LAUNCH DEMONSTRATION 1230 TODAY
AMS WEATHERFEST PREPARATIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 57 75 54 / 40 10 20 40
BTR 78 63 75 57 / 30 10 30 30
ASD 76 61 75 59 / 30 10 20 30
MSY 77 62 75 60 / 30 10 20 30
GPT 75 61 74 60 / 30 10 40 40
PQL 77 62 73 61 / 40 10 40 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-22-2012 08:09 AM
Dense fog advisory until 9AM. 67F temp and dewpoint this morning. The high today will be in the mid 70's under partly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of rain.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL CASE SHOWING UP TODAY...BUT IT DOES COME UP
ABOUT ONCE A YEAR AT LEAST. MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE MARGINAL AT
BEST THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SH/TS TO EXIST. ANOTHER
INHIBITER WILL BE THE DEEP ALMOST MOIST ADIABATIC LAYER BETWEEN
900MB AND 650MB. OFCOURSE WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN ONLY HAVING 1.34"
PW VALUES...THIS LAYER WILL ACT AS AN INVERSION TO ANY PARCEL SINCE
THE PARCEL WOULD HAVE TO BE SATURATED TO EVEN BECOME NEUTRALLY
BUOYANT. THIS WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE LOW POP VALUES OVER THE
AREA TODAY.
NOW FOR THE REASON WHY WE ARE GIVING A POP VALUE AT ALL. WITH
EVERYTHING EQUAL...ANY EXTRA FORCING WILL COMPLETELY CHANGE THIS
SCENARIO ESPECIALLY IF THE PW VALUES BECOME CONCENTRATED IN ANY
GIVEN AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING A VERY WEAK ~700MB DISTUBANCE TO MOVE
THROUGH TODAY. THIS MAY HELP GIVE THAT EXTRA SLIGHT LIFT TO GET AT
LEAST ONE OR TWO TS GOING.
AND NOW FOR THE IFS...IF A TS IS ABLE TO GET GOING...THE DRY AIR
POCKET AT 700MB WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE CORE OF ANY TS THAT IS
CAPABLE OF GETTING ABOVE THIS DRY LAYER CAUSING SOME VERY STRONG
DOWNBURSTING WINDS.
IN A NUTSHELL...ANY TS THAT IS CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING TODAY COULD
BECOME EXTREMELY VOLATILE. AS USUALLY SEEN AROUND HERE...MOST
ACTIVITY THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO JACKSONS
CWA WHERE WE BECOME THE LAUNCHING PAD. EVEN BETTER LIFT MOVES IN
FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT SO A GOOD WATCH TO THE SKY MAY BE
WARRANTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
MANY TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR FOG CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
MARINE LAYER IS SETTLING IN NEAR CALM WIND REGIME. STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR THE LA-MS BORDER NEAR MCCOMB TO PULL NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE
THIS MORNING ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO LIFT. CEILING EXPECTED
TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AT KMCB AROUND 18Z. OTHER TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG NOTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT LIGHT SHOWER
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER COASTAL WATERS MAY DISRUPT THE FOG AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS FOG LIKELY TO BE DENSE OVER SOUNDS AND
BAYS...LESS SO OVER WARMER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOWER 70S /REMINDER: IT IS ONLY JANUARY/. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS SHOULD REALLY ONLY
SOFTEN WITHOUT A TRUE WIND SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE.
STRONGER FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE
WITH THESE SYSTEMS THOUGH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURDAY. 24/RR
&&
.CONVECTIVE ASSESSMENT...
CHAP APPROACH IS INDICATING A SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL JUST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z PRIOR TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
OUTPUT FOR KMCB SOUNDING SUGGEST A RISK OF EF0-EF1 TORNADO IF
HELICITY STRENGTHENS LOCALLY ON ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT. THIS
THREAT SHOULD LIFT INTO JAN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY MODE
BEING DAMAGING WINDS FROM FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. WILL TRY TO DETAIL
THREATS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING BUT INDICATE AREAL
UNCERTAINTY AS STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG OUR CWA BORDER BUT MAY NOT
BECOME SEVERE UNTIL HAVING MOVED OF THE CWA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE
EXPERIMENTAL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO TOOL APPROACH INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS EXPECTATION IN DEFERENCE TO FURTHER EVALUATION
TODAY. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH TWO
DISTINCTIVE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 18
HOURS. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...MORIAL CONVENTION CENTER FOR AMS WEATHERFEST/CONVENTION.
ACTIVATION...POSSIBLE SPOTTER ACTIVATION AFTER 1200.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ASSESSING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO CODE YELLOW BY 1200 CST.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 54 68 49 / 20 50 10 10
BTR 77 58 68 50 / 20 50 10 10
ASD 75 65 71 51 / 20 50 10 10
MSY 75 66 71 52 / 20 40 10 10
GPT 72 66 71 53 / 20 50 20 10
PQL 73 66 71 51 / 20 50 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
FELICIANA.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-23-2012 07:54 AM
70F temp and 69F dewpoint this morning with light rain. The high today will be in the mid 70's under cloudy skies and a 20% chance of rain. Temps will fall to the upper 40's tonight. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday looking wet.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
432 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONTAL ZONE CLEARLY DELINEATED BY SHARP SQUALL LINE ON RADAR
REFLECTIVITY FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE ACADIANA REGION OF SOUTH LOUISIANA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LINE NARROWING AND LESS INTENSE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /QLCS/ SQUALL LINE FEATURE
SHARPENING SOMEWHAT AS IT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LINE HAS BEEN SUB-SEVERE LIMITED BY CAPPING
IN THE MID LEVELS TO INHIBIT UPDRAFTS THOUGH WARM RAIN PROCESS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING TO BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FROM SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 20KFT WITH
LOW SPEED SHEAR. THIS FRONTAL SQUALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AROUND 15 KTS AND BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INDICATED A STRATIFICATION OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
FOR TODAY. OTHER ISSUE IS WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED
TEMPERATURES POST-FRONTAL AS PACIFIC AIR MASS NOT HOLDING MUCH
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AS INDICATED BY UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES IN
TEXAS AND ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
CLOSER TO 70 AS MORNING LOWS HAVE HELD UP OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
FRONT ALREADY PASSED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
INDICATED MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING PRE-
FRONTAL BASELINED FROM UNSEASONABLY VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
RAIN AND CLOUDINESS TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH FAIR
AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. FRONT DOES NOT GET TOO FAR SOUTH
BEFORE STALLING AND RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER-RUNNING RAIN PATTERN LIKELY TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH STRATIFORM RAIN INTERSPERSED WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE AHEAD OF LOW LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THIS
SYSTEM WILL COME INTO THE REGION WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TO PROVIDE A
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT LAST SHORT-WAVE PASSES...A RELATIVELY LONG
STRETCH OF QUIETER DAYS SHOULD EVOLVE AS FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CYCLONIC TO NEARLY ZONAL ALOFT HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR VSBY AND CEILING IMPACTS AT THE MS COAST TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. REMAINDER TO THE LOCATIONS ARE LOW END MVFR FOR CEILINGS.
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SOME CLOUDS SCT-BKN ABOVE 4KFT LATER THIS MORNING. FRONT
NEAR KMCB AND KBTR AT THIS TIME...SHOULD PASS KMSY-KNEW-KASD
AROUND 14Z...KHSA/KGPT AROUND 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WAS 15-20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD FALL OFF RATHER
QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR LAKES AND SOUNDS THROUGH 6 AM AND FOR OTHER AREAS
THROUGH NEXT COASTAL FORECAST ISSUANCE. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STRONG SHORT-WAVE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL AS WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO 20
KT AND SEAS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 6 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...UPGRADED TO YELLOW AT 0340 CST
DEPLOYED...MORIAL CONVENTION CENTER-NOLA FOR AMS CONVENTION.
ACTIVATION...HIGH IMPACT/DSS DESK
ACTIVITIES...STORM SURVEILLANCE FOR POSSIBLE SVR ALONG SQLN
KLIX WSR-88D IN VCP 212 STORM MODE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 46 63 54 / 20 10 60 60
BTR 75 51 65 56 / 20 10 60 50
ASD 75 50 65 57 / 30 10 60 40
MSY 77 55 64 58 / 30 10 60 30
GPT 75 52 66 58 / 60 20 60 50
PQL 76 51 65 57 / 60 20 60 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.