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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-29-2006 05:27 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
400 Am Cdt Tue Aug 29 2006

.discussion...scattered Convection Will Remain On Tap For The
Forecast Area For The Next Two Days Before Dry Weather Moves Into
The Region For The End Of The Week And Into The Weekend. The
Mid/upper Level Low/trough Over The Mid And Upper Mississippi
Valley Will Move East Into The Eastern Conus During The Week While The
Upper Ridge Currently Over The Southeast U.s. Shifts East And
Ernesto Moves North Across The Florida Peninsula And Up The East
Coast. As The Mid/upper Low/trough Moves East...it Will Push A
Cold Front South Across The Forecast Area Latter Tonight And
During The Day Wednesday. In Advance Of This Front...precipitable
Water Values Will Remain High...around Two Inches Or Greater...
Which Will Help Fuel Convection With The Approaching Cold Front
And Possibly A Weak Short Wave Moving Around The Periphery Of The
Southeast Upper Ridge Acting As A Focus For Thunderstorm Development.
A Considerably Drier And More Comfortable Airmass Will Filter Into
The Region Late Wednesday And Thursday In The Wake Of The Front.
The Next Chance For Rain Will Come Sunday Into Early Next Week As
Another Cold Front Approaches As Another Upper Trough/low Digs
Into The Mid/upper Mississippi Valley.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-30-2006 05:57 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
349 Am Cdt Wed Aug 30 2006

.discussion...convection Has Been On The Increase Across The
Southern Half Of The Forecast Area Early This Morning In Advance
Of A Cold Front Moving Southeast Across Central And Southwest
Mississippi And South Central And Southwest Louisiana. This Cold
Front Will Continue Southeast Across The Forecast Area Today But
May Temporarily Slow Down As It Approaches The Coast In Response
To Tropical Storm Ernesto Moving North Over The Florida Peninsula.
The Front Should However Continue South Through The Coastal Waters
Tonight As The Upper Low/trough Moving Into The Ohio Valley
Amplifies. Considerably Drier Air Will Filter Into The Region In
The Wake Of The Front Tonight And Into Thursday Resulting In Dry And
More Comfortable Conditions Through The Weekend. The Next Chance
For Rain Will Come Early Next Week As Another Upper Level
Trough/low Digs Across The Upper And Mid Mississippi Valley And
Moves Into The Great Lakes And Ohio Valley Region With An
Associated Cold Front Pushing South Into The Area.


&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-31-2006 08:02 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
252 Am Cdt Thu Aug 31 2006

.discussion...weak Cold Front...courtesy Of Ernesto...continues To
Move Through The Northeast Gulf This Morning As Drier And Slightly
Cooler Air Filters Into The Region. Ernesto Is Forecasted To
Continue Moving Up The Atlantic Seaboard As High Pressure Briefly
Builds Southward Across The Plains States. With Light Northwest
Flow Prevailing Aloft...little Change In The Overall Weather
Pattern Across The Area Is Expected Through The Weekend Offering
Us A Quick Peak Into The Upcoming Fall Season. The Next Front Is
Forecasted By The Models To Move Into The Region Mon As An Upper
Trough Swings Through The Plains States. The 00z Run Of The Gfs Is
Suggesting Quite A Bit Of Qpf Developing Along The Boundary As It
Potentially Slows North Of The Gulf Coast. Hard To Tell This Far
Out If This Is A Convective Feedback Issue Or Developing Waves
Along The Boundary...both Of Which Would Generate Ample Amounts Of
Precip For This Time Of Year. For Now...will Increase Pops To The
Low Chance Cat For Tue And Wed And Leave Slight Chance Pops In For
Mon. Further Model Runs May Indeed Suggest Increasing Rain Chances
More For The New Work Week. In The Short Term...enjoy The Nice
Fall Like Weather As The Weekend Approaches.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-04-2006 08:59 AM

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
430 Am Cdt Mon Sep 4 2006

.discussion...
A Mid/upper Low Over Iowa...with A Trough Extending Southwest...
Will Move Slowly East And Southeast Across The Ms Valley Today
And Tonight...and The Lower Oh Valley And Tn Valley Tuesday And
Tuesday Night. The Associated Cold Front Has Already Surged South
To Near The Ms And Southeast La Coasts The Last Few Hours.

Pva And The Frontal Boundary Could Cause A Few Showers To Form
Over The Southeast Half Of The Forecast Area Today...but Will Not
Mention In The Forecast Because Coverage Should Be 10 Percent Or
Less. The Lower Surface Dewpoint Temps And Only Slight Erosion Of
The Mid Level Cap Will Work Against Deep Convection.

On Tuesday...falling Mid/upper Heights And Shortwave Energy Should
Cause Some Overrunning Of Moisture Over The Frontal Boundary. Will
Carry 20 To 30 Percent Pops For Showers And Thunderstorms.

Drier Air Will Return Again On Wednesday Into Thursday. Tuesday
Night Should Be The Coolest With Widespread 60s Forecast Except
Near The Southeast La Coastal Bays And Southshore Of Lake
Pontchartrain Where Warm Water Will Keep Temperatures Up In The
Lower 70s. A Few Locations Far North Could See Lows Near 60.

The Surface High Will Shift East Friday Through The Weekend. Weak
Upper Level Disturbances And Increased Moisture Should Support A
Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-05-2006 04:33 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
428 Am Cdt Tue Sep 5 2006

.discussion...
Main Forecast Problem Will Be Rain Chances Over The Next Several
Days As Gradients Of Moisture And Lift Set Up Over The Forecast
Area.

A Mid/upper Trough...extending From The Western Great Lakes Into
The Arklatex...will Become Disjointed As The Northern Portion Of
The Trough Progresses East While The Southern Portion Hangs Back
West Of The Lower Ms River Through Thursday. Additional Lift From
Periods Of Upper Divergence Will Also Contribute To Synoptic Scale
Lift Across The Forecast Area. The Main Change Affecting The
Forecast Is There Should Be Some Rain Chance Over At Least The
Southeast Portion Of The Area Wednesday Into Thursday.

At The Surface...the Cold Front Has Moved Near The Coast...about
Where It Was At This Time Yesterday Morning. The Difference Today
Is The Boundary Should Remain Stationary And Not Move Back North.
The Front Should Move Farther South On Wednesday...then Become
Repositioned Just Inland Across The Central Gulf Coast Again
Thursday And Friday.

As Far As Weather...will Continue With A Slight Chance Of Showers
And A Few Thunderstorms Today...then Will Only Keep A Slight
Chance Over The Southeast Portions Tonight Through Thursday.
Instability Is Very Marginal...so The Threat Of Strong Or Severe
Thunderstorms Is Very Low The Next Several Days. The 850 Mb Front/
Trough Will Extend North Of The Surface Front...so Isentropic
Up-glide Will Also Contribute To Uvv.

In The Extended Time Frame...the Gfs Is Now Drier Over The Weekend
With A Wetter Pattern Holding Off Until Monday And Tuesday. Have
Only Made Minor Changes For Now During This Period.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 86 63 87 63 / 20 10 10 10
Btr 88 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 10
Msy 88 72 88 71 / 20 20 20 10
Gpt 88 65 88 66 / 30 20 20 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-06-2006 04:36 AM

lix Area forecast discussion National Weather Service New Orleans la 221 am CDT Wednesday Sep 6 2006 Discussion... no big changes made ot ongoing pack. Frontal systems has moved into the Gulf and dry air conintues to move into the boundary layer. A little more moisture will creep back into the boundary layer today bringing better moisture profiles back to just above 700mb by noon. This should be enough to keep a 20% chance of rain in the forecast. A surge of very dry air moves in to cap anything above the 675mb level by noon today as well. With little in the way of strong heating...dynamic lift should be the main culprit today to help develop any shower activity. Looking at the middle and upper levels...would like to see a SW component to the middle level winds which would allow it to pick up any available moisture from the western Gulf. This flow is mainly northerly. Would also like to see a SW component to the upper flow but it is due westerly from southern cali through la. These two wind regimes are not conducive for overrunning as they provide no moisture to speak of.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-07-2006 04:24 AM

Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
323 Am Cdt Thu Sep 7 2006

.discussion...
Good Amount Of Sh/ts Developing Over The North Central Gulf This
Morning. The Area Should Become A Little Better Organized As A
Strong Short Wave Moves Into The Area And A Sfc Low Begins To
Develop Along The Front. No Problems From Any Obs Yet As Only Gusts
Found Are Around 20kt Near The Mouth Of The Miss River. Will Have
To Continue To Watch The Area For Smw`s As Dynamics And
Thermodynamics Favor Isolated Strong Ts Development.

There Is Also A Strong Moisture Gradient From Nw To Se. This
Will Help Keep Most If Not All Sh/ts Activity Along The Coast To
Well Offshore. Another Short Wave Will Dive Into The Area Later
Today. This Feature Can Be See In Wv Imagery From Shreveport Into
East Central Texas This Morning. This Feature Is Also Responsible
For The Developing Cloudiness From Monroe Through East Central Tx.
Enough Dry Subsident Air Aloft Should Keep The Area Capped Until
It Reaches The Coast Today.

Problem Will Be Mainly For Mariners Today But Isolated Land
Development May Also Find A Problem. That Would Be Movement Vs.
Propagation Vectors. These Vectors...as One Can Already Tell...are
Equal And Opposite Each Other Which Simply Means Sh/ts That
Develop Stay Pretty Much Over The Same Location With Heavy
Rainfall. Values Are Not Expected To Be Over An Inch For Any One
Location.

Looking At The Numbers...the Eta Ros Seems To Have A Good Handle
On This System. It Did A Fantastic Job Yesterday With Pop Numbers
And Is Showing Some Skill For Today And Possibly Tomorrow. Will
Stay A Little Closer To Ros Numbers For The First Three Periods
Before Giving In To The Gfs. The Ros Is Also Showing 40% At Msy
During The Day Friday But Will Not Use This Until Better Confidence
Is Aquired From Next Short Wave Moving Down The Nw Flow On The
Back Side Of The Upper Trough. Attm Just Looks Too Dry.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-09-2006 05:49 AM

rea forecast discussion National Weather Service New Orleans la 337 am CDT Sat Sep 9 2006 Discussion... lots to talk about with many drastic changes to package this morning. Quite a bit of difference in the way models handling mass fields. Will start this morning with the big picture. Huge upper trough digging today over the Hudson Bay area as an upper low and surface low get organized over Colorado. The surface low will move east then NE basically splitting the large upper Hudson Bay trough. As the surface low develops and moves out frontogenisis will occur. Eventually this cold front will enter and move through the area. But this process will play out very slowly as another surface low tries to develop along the front as it nears the northern Gulf. This will cause the front to be held up temporarily on Monday. As the low moves east-northeast Tuesday the wind shift finally makes its way through. As the front is located over the northern Gulf...small disturbances will continue to move over the area causing sh/ts to continue through Wednesday. Probability of precipitation today will be a difficult task. Will take current moisture fields into consideration for future pop gradient. Slightly drier conditions to the NE of the area will be stubborn to move away and so will modify slowly while the majority of the area will modify quickly today. Precipitable waters are a lot higher along and south of the old boundary located over the northern Gulf this morning while a disturbance moving out of southeast Texas is having to use lower precipitable water thresholds. So long story short...heaviest rainfall should be found along and south of the old frontal boundary. This front... which we will call a warm front but is more of a surface-middle level moisture boundary...will feel the synoptic tug of return flow caused by the surface low getting developed in Colorado and will move slowly northward over the next several days. Sounding profiles are not showing a strong chance of severe with any ts developing north of the Gulf frontal boundary. But this changes as one reaches and moves south of it. So no strong or severe ts will be expected north of where the warm front is located until it moves over and north of a location. Heavy rainfall estimates move upward as well along and south of the boundary. Best position of this boundary is found with precipitable water values. It seems to be located from around Houston to about 30 miles due south of New Orleans moving north at 10 knots. &&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-11-2006 03:44 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 110827
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
327 Am Cdt Mon Sep 11 2006

.discussion...
Ts Developing Near And Offshore Again This Morning With A
Resultant Movement Vector Toward The Shoreline At About 10kt. This
Will Be The First Wave Of Sh/ts And As Usual The Second Crop Will
Develop With Daytime Heating Starting By Late Morning. No Severity
Is Expected With Any Of The Activity That Develops Today.

A Wind Shift To The West Then Nw Will Begin To Enter The Area
Late Tue And Should Push Through Shortly After Midnight. The
Strong Surge Of Dry Air Will Lag The Wind Shift By Several Hours
Finally Moving Into The Area Starting Around Daybreak Wed
Morning. Basically We Should Be Waking Wed Morning To Relatively
High Dew Pt Readings But These Readings Will Drop Throughout The
Day Making Things Feel Very Comfortable By Late Afternoon And
Evening. This Scenario Will Also Maximize Radiational Cooling
Starting Wed Night Causing Temps To Drop Into The Lower 60s With
Even A Few Upper 50s Readings Not Out Of The Question. The
Exception Will Be Areas South Of Lake Pontchartrain Unless Wind
Speeds Go Calm After Wed Night.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-12-2006 07:05 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 120831
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
331 Am Cdt Tue Sep 12 2006

.discussion...
Area Radars Are Currently Indicating A Broken Line Of Showers And
Thunderstorms Stretching Across Northern And Central Mississippi
And Louisiana. This Activity Is Being Triggered By A Pre-frontal
Trough That Is Pushing Southeastward Across The Deep South. The
Actual Frontal Boundary Extends From Illinois And Indiana
Southwestward Across Arkansas And Texas. This Front Should Move
Across The Forecast Area Today And Tonight.

The 00z Klix Sounding Shows Plenty Of Moisture In Place, With A
Precipitable Water Value Of 2.16 Inches. Given The Deep Moisture
And Triggering By The Pre-frontal Trough And The Actual Frontal
Boundary, 70 Percent Pops Are Forecast Areawide Today. The Front
Will Pass Into The Coastal Waters Early Wednesday Morning, Giving
Way To Clearing Skies, Seasonal Temperatures, And Lower Relative
Humidities. Subsidence And Dry Air Advection Should Begin In
Earnest Wednesday Afternoon As High Pressure Begins To Build In
Behind The Front. The Ridge Will Persist Through Saturday. Rain
Chances In This Time Frame Will Be Nil, And Temperatures Will Be
Quite Seasonable. Afternoon Readings Will Be In The Mid And Upper
80s While Overnight Lows Will Dip Into The Lower 60s North To
Around 70 Degrees South.

The High Pressure Begins To Shift Eastward On Sunday, Giving Way
To Return Flow. Rain Chances Creep Back Into The Forecast On
Monday, As The Next Weather System Approaches. A Low Pressure
System Will Exit The Rockies And Deepen Over The Central Plains.
It Will Push Another Cold Front Our Way In The Late Monday Night
Or Early Tuesday Time Frame. Thus, Rain Chances Were Increased To
Scattered Coverage For The Early Part Of Next Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...