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New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 07-28-2011 04:44 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280904
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

.SHORT TERM...
VERY HIGH PW VALUES REMAIN AND A RESULT OF THAT IS LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS LEADING TO SH/TS DEVELOPING EARLY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL BE THE SAME TODAY. TROP STORM DON WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TRY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. AS DON MOVES PAST
THE AREA AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE HIGH OUT EAST WILL BUILD INTO
THE GULF SOUTH CAUSING A REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN AND MAKING TEMPS
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES MOVE UPWARD TO MORE UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTERWARDS ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
SETTLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING THE
DAILY SH/TS BACK INTO THE PICTURE STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE STILL HAVE ALL THAT NEEDS TO BE IN PLACE FOR WATERSPOUT
ACTIVITY TODAY. BUT ONE THING THAT DOES CHANGE IS STORM MOTION.
DIR AND SPEED WILL TAKE MARINE SH/TS ONSHORE TODAY AND IF THERE
ARE WATERSPOUTS WITH ANY PARTICULAR STORM NEARSHORE...IT COULD
MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE FOR A SHORT DURATION. STORM MOTION WILL MOVE
FROM NNW AT 12 KT THIS MORNING TO ALMOST DUE NORTH AT 18 TO 20 KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE NO PROPAGATION IN THE
OPPOSING DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON SO STORMS WILL NOT BE CAPABLE OF
TRAINING. FOR THESE REASONS...WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH.
THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT WE WILL NOT SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES OVERHEAD. HEAVY RAIN CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME STREETS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ITS JUST
THAT THE CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT. AS
THE OPPOSING PROPAGATION VECTOR CEASES THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WATERSPOUTS. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 17

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA
THROUGH AROUND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KMCB WITH
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/2SM BEFORE THE INVERSION LIFTS. ALSO SEEING
LIFR CEILINGS AT KBTR WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER
THE INVERSION CLEARS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY FORCED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 17-22Z. HAVE
A TEMPO GROUP IN TO REFLECT THIS RISK. 35

&&

.MARINE...

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THIS MARINE PACKAGE FROM
YESTERDAYS UPDATE. DON IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WNW-NW AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF A MID LVL RIDGE AND SHOULD PUSH INTO TX. THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM. THIS WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT NOT GREATLY MAINLY DUE TO
THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE STORM. DON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL BUT
WILL STILL PROVIDE A DECENT SWELL EMANATING FROM THE SW. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN DON AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND EXTREME SERN CONUS AND THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE AN
INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KTS ARE LIKELY IN WRN MARINE ZONES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEAS OF 4-6 FT POSSIBLY HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS DELTA. WILL RAISE EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR WESTERN WATERS AND OUTER EASTERN
WATERS...AS MUCH FOR SWELL ENHANCED SEAS AS ANYTHING. ONCE DON MOVES
INLAND...MOST LIKELY TX...THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD QUICKLY BACK INTO
THE GULF AND PROVIDE LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ONCE AGAIN. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 74 93 73 / 70 20 30 10
BTR 91 76 95 77 / 70 20 40 10
ASD 89 77 93 76 / 80 30 30 10
MSY 89 78 92 79 / 80 30 30 10
GPT 89 77 92 77 / 80 30 30 10
PQL 88 75 92 73 / 80 30 30 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-29-2011 04:59 AM

76F temp and dewpoint this A.M. Got another inch or so of rain yesterday. 40% chance of rain today, but drying out over the weekend.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
318 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM DON IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND HAS
TAKEN A BIT OF A WESTWARD TURN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
.
CENTER LOCATION AS OF 2AM CDT WAS 25.0N 93.0W...OR ABOUT 285 MI
ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTICWITH
UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL ENTRENCHED OVER LOCAL AREA WITH LATEST SOUNDING SHOWING PW
SITTING OVER 2.5 INCHES
DRY WEDGE OVER FL AND S GA SHOWING UP
NICELY ON WV IMAGERY
...MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.

&&

.
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE TODAY AND
SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...ONLY
INDICATING 10
POPS ACROSS MS GULF COAST TODAYWITH PW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER 2.5 INCHES
...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT
TOO BULLISH WITH THIS SOLUTION
WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS
/MAV SOLUTION CARRYING ROUGHLY 30POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES TO
50
POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UNTIL MOISTURE DECREASES...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
...AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
.

BY SATURDAY...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS MORE SOLIDLY OVER THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AND
WILL GENERALLY BE CARRYING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA
LOWER RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL BE
CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID 90S
THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISING TO NEAR 
OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA
WITH LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP INTO 75 TO 78 DEGREE
RANGE
...THERE WONT BE MUCH CHANCE OF RELIEF EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORY

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE BY SUNDAY
WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SOME MOISTURE
RECOVERY FORECAST
...EXPECT POPS TO RISE BACK INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AS
WELL...SO AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID
90S SUNDAY
.

.
LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECASTEXPECT
THE UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
.
BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN
...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREADING INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON
COULD ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS ONE
OR TWO SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY AS WELLAFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE
.

&&

.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LESS PREVALENT THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW
ONLY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME ARE AT KMCB WHERE LIFR
CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING
CANNOT RULE OUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT
KBTR
...BUT MOST OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING
06Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWS AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS...BUT
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRYING MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE
...AND THIS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA THIS MORNINGTHIS
SHOULD LOWER CHANCES 
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ALREADY SOMEWHAT REFLECTED BY MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OVER MARINE
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT OCCURRED 24 HOURS AGO
. FOR
NOW...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MENTIONING CONVECTION IN 12Z TAF
PACKAGE
...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS RIGHT UP TO
PRESS TIME THIS MORNING
.

&&

.
MARINE...
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DON SHOULD
HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN OUR MARINE AREA
. AS DON APPROACHES THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST
...HIS EFFECTS ON THE LOCAL MARINE AREA SHOULD
WANE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE
...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BUMP INTO THE ADVISORY RANGEWITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
...CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z
WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY
FOLLOWING DON...BENIGN CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
TO THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.
SOUNDING...
SPECIAL 06Z FLIGHT DUE TO TROPICAL STORM DONNO PROBLEMS WITH THE
FLIGHT TONIGHT
TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AS THE PW
IS AT 2.63 INCHES
PROFILE IS SATURATED FROM 750 MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET
.

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  95  74 /  40  20  20  20
BTR  92  75  96  76 
/  50  10  20  20
ASD  92  76  95  76 
/  30  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  94  78 
/  40  10  20  10
GPT  90  76  95  77 
/  30  10  20  10
PQL  92  73  96  75 
/  30  10  20  10

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM
...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM
.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM
...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM




New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-30-2011 05:48 AM

75F temp and 73F dewpoint this morning. Mid to high 90's today with only a 20% chance of rain. N.O. airport has recorded 13 inches of rain since the first of July!

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1019MB HIGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI 
AND ALABAMA WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER WEST LOUISIANA
AND DECAYING MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 74 AND 78F AT 08Z OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AIR MASS REMAINED MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 2.3
INCHES FRIDAY EVENING
IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS
SHOWED VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 
AND 2.3 INCHES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
AND MID SOUTH REGIONUPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND
ANOTHER OVER COLORADO.

&&

.
SHORT TERM...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE WITH THE HIGH JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY
VERY SLIGHT TEMPERATURE INCREASE IN THE MID LAYERS
AND ABSENT OF ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PLACING A DEEP
NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA 
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNINGA DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT
SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID LAYER AND DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BUMP RAIN CHANCE
BACK TO NORM 
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NO CHANGE MUCH MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY 
AS THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS MAY BUILD EAST SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MID WEEK
ERGO...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE
90S 
AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO AFTERNOONS.

.
LONG TERM...
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE BY THURSDAY AS GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EAST OF FLORIDA 
OR AT THE BASE THE EAST COAST TROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE IT WEST TO NORTHEAST GULF BY SATURDAYECMWF MAINTAINS
THE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH JUST A WEAKNESS
OVER FLORIDA
BOTH RESULT IN CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
. AS A
RESULT
...RAIN CHANCES MAY DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM DURING
THIS TIME WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM
.

&&

.
AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD
KMCB HAS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS
...BUT RECOVERED TO VFREXPECT RATHER VARIABLE
CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE
CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR 
OR IFR AT KBTR AND KHUM AROUND SUNRISE
AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED TODAY THAN HAS BEEN THE 
CASE ALL WEEKCOVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN FORECAST AT
MOST TERMINALS
35

&&

.
MARINE...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM DON FROM THE
SCENE
...BENIGN CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS 
AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS35

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  95  75 /  30  20  60  30
BTR  95  75  96  76 
/  20  20  30  30
ASD  94  75  95  76 
/  20  10  30  30
MSY  93  77  94  79 
/  20  10  30  30
GPT  94  76  94  77 
/  20  10  30  30
PQL  94  74  94  76 
/  20  10  30  30

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-31-2011 05:19 AM

77F temp and dewpoint this A.M. 50% chance of rain today.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
326 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE SURFACE WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA
WEAK EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING GULF FROM
FLORIDA
NO PRECIPITATION...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S 
AND LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.
SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF EASTERLY WAVE AND IMPULSES MOVING AROUND UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING A 
RETURN TO HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION
...AT LEAST FOR TODAY AND MONDAYIT WILL TAKE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF THE DAY TODAY 
FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE...AS WRF-ARW
SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT 19Z
-
20Z...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LATER THAN MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
RESULT IS THAT POPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY
...BUT REMAINING
IN THE CHANCE RANGE
PER WRF SOLUTION AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST
...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA
CONVECTION WILL DIE OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON POPS MONDAY...NAM
AND WRF SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE ON CONVECTION.
WILL CARRY POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...EVEN THOSE ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN NEIGHBORS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA A LITTLE ON TUESDAY
...SO WILL BE GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ON CONVECTION
.

WITH SURFACE FLOW NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH WILL
ALLOW 
FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY35

&&

.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER ARK-LA-TEX AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK
...AND MUCH OF THE WEEKENDTHIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING
CONVECTION EACH DAY
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM UNTIL ABOUT NEXT
SUNDAY 
OR MONDAY...AND IF ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED...NOT EVEN THEN.
NO MAJOR CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
FACT THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING MID 90S HIGHS 
FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE
35

&&

.
AVIATION...
DEEP MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA 
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AFTER 18Z TODAY.
AS 
A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS AT EACH TAF SITES AFTER 19Z
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY
MOST CELLS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER SUNSET AND MUCH OF THE NIGHTPATCHY LIGHT
FOG IS POSSIBLE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING
.

&&

.
MARINE...
THE MARINE FORECAST WILL RETURN TO A NEAR QUIET STATE FOR THIS
MARINE PACKAGE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLY UP TO 10 TO
15 KTS
...HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHTOTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS 
AND SEAS BELOW 2 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD
.

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  75  96  75 /  50  30  40  20
BTR  97  77  97  77 
/  40  30  50  30
ASD  95  77  95  77 
/  50  30  40  30
MSY  94  78  94  79 
/  40  30  50  30
GPT  94  77  94  78 
/  60  30  40  30
PQL  95  77  93  78 
/  60  30  40  20

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-31-2011 03:30 PM

Pouring down rain w/ lightening here right now. Got the mower out of the shed and had gotten one strip cut along the driveway and street, and then the fireworks started. Just what we needed to go along with the 13+ inches so far this month. Wish we could send some of this down to you guys in SE and Central TX, and OK.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - jess - 08-01-2011 05:28 AM

We haven't had the 13 inches of rain, but we've had anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of rain in most areas in the southeast corner of Southeast Texas. It's made the grass grow at a rate of about an inch per day, which turns every weekend into a yard mowing marathon between showers. Mosquitos have returned in force, so staying out in the darkening hours is not recommended.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-01-2011 06:24 AM

76F temp and dewpoint this A.M. 60% chance of rain with a high in the mid 90's. Normal summer weather to return by the middle of the week with 20% rain chances and mid to upper 90 highs.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
A STALLED BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA
.

LOCALLY...A TROPICAL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S 
AND ONLY LIKELY TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE
LIKEWISE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL SITTING IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
.

&&

.
DISCUSSION...
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING
/EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING INLAND00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED PW NEAR 2.5 INCHES AGAIN
...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT 
DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLBASED ON THE
SOUNDING
...STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

TEMPS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
THIS WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO RISE INTO THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE LOUISIANA
COAST
.

FOR 
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
PW VALUES MAY EVEN DROP BELOW
2 INCHES 
FOR OR 4 DAYS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKWILL
MENTION THAT BECAUSE OF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE
...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE MID 70S...AND A
LACK OF OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
TOP OUT NEAR 110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON
HAVE
EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH
PERSISTENT CONDITIONS
...WILL LIKELY SEE THE HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED
ANOTHER DAY WITH EACH FORECAST PACKAGE
.

FOR 
THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...THE TROUGH WILL SERVE
A TWOFOLD PURPOSE
ONE...IT WILL FORCE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
...CURRENTLY INVEST AL91...TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST CARRYING IT AWAY FROM THE CONUSTWO...IT WILL
FORCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AGAIN
...PLACING THE
LOCAL AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES WESTWARD
...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

&&

.
AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING
SOME LIGHT BR MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR AT HUM AND
MCBRELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...MOSTLY NW WIND FLOW FOR ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AND BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON
...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
.

&&

.
MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD
A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO WEST GULF CREATING A WEAK WEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AND
SEAS AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  75  97  76 /  40  20  30  10
BTR  97  77  97  77 
/  50  20  30  10
ASD  95  76  95  77 
/  60  30  30  10
MSY  95  79  96  80 
/  60  30  30  10
GPT  95  77  94  78 
/  50  30  30  10
PQL  95  75  95  76 
/  60  30  30  10

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA
...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...STCHARLES...STHELENA...STJAMES...ST.
     
JOHN THE BAPTIST...STTAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE
...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER STBERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE
...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA
.

GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER
...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-02-2011 04:36 AM

77F temp and dewpoint this morning. There's a 30% chance of rain today with temps climbing to the upper 90's. Low rain chances for the rest of the work week.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS
LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST 
OR SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF WEST
.

LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES STILL HOVERING IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE
ANY WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT MOST 
AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SIMILARLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
.

&&

.
DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEKTHE
UPPER HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS
...EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING MOST DIURNAL CONVECTIONWILL
BE CARRYING 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TODAY
...ONLY 10 TO 15 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAYSHOULD
MENTION THAT WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT 
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE...WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TO RECURVE 
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF BACK
INTO THE ATLANTIC
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE SAME PATTERN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN STIFLING HEAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS
...
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE MID
70S
...PRODUCING OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR EVEN EXCEEDING
110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT
ADVISORY 
AND EXTEND IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING KNOWING THAT IT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE AN
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE THREAT
...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING 
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD
THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA
...AND WILL ALSO PUT THE LOCAL AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE
BEING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY...WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS 
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAMEDESPITE
THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION
...WILL STILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR 105
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON
.

&&

.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGTHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS SHRA
/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE
WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.
MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD
A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY
WEDNESDAY
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS 
A RESULT...A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
PERIOD
LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 2
FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
.

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  76  97  76 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  97  78  98  77 
/  20  10  10  10
ASD  96  77  96  77 
/  30  10  10  10
MSY  96  79  96  80 
/  30  10  10  10
GPT  95  78  96  79 
/  30  10  10  10
PQL  95  75  96  77 
/  30  10  10  10

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA
...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...STCHARLES...STHELENA...STJAMES...ST.
     
JOHN THE BAPTIST...STTAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE
...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER STBERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE
...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA
.

GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER
...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-03-2011 04:58 AM

80F temp and dewpoint this morning - whew! Upper 90's today with effective temp in the 110F to 115F dangerous region.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
410 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

.
SHORT TERM...
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND LITTLE OR NO
RAIN WILL BE THE STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THIS IS NOT THE TYPICAL
SUMMER HEAT 
FOR THE GULF SOUTH...BUT RATHER IS AN EXTENSION OF THE
RECORD BREAKING HEAT OVER THE PLAINS 
AND MID/LOWER SOUTH REGION INTO
THE GULF COAST AREA
...COMBINING WITH VERY OPPRESSIVE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS HAS BEEN STUDIED IN
OUR REGION
...AND IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE A MUCH HIGHER LIKELYHOOD OF
CASUALTIES FROM HEAT STRESS 
AND HEAT STROKEGIVEN THE FORECAST OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80.
..THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN THIS MOST OPPRESSIVE
AIRMASS
. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING 
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY.

THE PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS A DOME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY WEST ON FRIDAY AND
ALLOW A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTH 
AND NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SO WILL INCLUDE A
30 PERCENT POP IN THAT REGION WITH 20 PERCENT 
OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

.
LONG TERM...
THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS 
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIESSLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...SO
AM EXPECTING A 
RETURN TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKTEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS REACHING
THE MID 90S
22/TD

&&

.
AVIATION...
SOME LIGHT BR/HZ WITH VSBYS 4-6 NM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD
08
-14Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED WITH ONLY 10 TO 20
PERCENT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MENTION
CONVECTION IN 
OR NEAR TAF SITES THROUGH THIS PACKAGE18

&&

.
MARINE...
TUESDAY MORNING WITNESSES THE RETURN OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH WEST WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS
GFS SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY
MEANWHILE...WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEAKLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART
WILL LEAD TO SEAS AROUND A FOOT 
OR 2. 18

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  97  78  98  78 
/  10  10  10  10
ASD  95  78  96  78 
/  20  10  10  10
MSY  95  80  95  80 
/  20  10  10  10
GPT  95  79  95  80 
/  20  10  10  10
PQL  97  76  96  77 
/  20  10  10  20

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA
...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON
...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...STCHARLES...STHELENA...STJAMES...ST.
     
JOHN THE BAPTIST...STTAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE
...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER STBERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE
...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA
.

GM...NONE.
MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER
...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-04-2011 05:13 AM

79F temp and dewpoint this morning. 0% chance of rain, however popcorn storms can always happen in the summer down here. Heat index progged to be in the 110F to 115F range again today. Next real chance of rain will be on Sunday.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE IS A GOOD REFLECTOR OF SOLAR RADIATIONTHE PUBLIC IS HIT
WITH A VERY QUESTIONABLE PERCEPTION
THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
MOIST DURING TROPICAL EVENTS SUCH 
AS WAVES DEPRESSIONS...ETCBUT
WHEN SPEAKING WITH SEVERAL PEOPLE YESTERDAY
...THEY WERE CONFUSED
BY THE FACT THAT IT FEELS JUST 
AS HUMID IF NOT MORE SO THAN A
TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE SO WHY ARE THE TEMPERATURES SO ELEVATED WHEN
THE SAME CONDITIONS EXIST
UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THE MOISTURE
DURING THESE EXTREMELY UNCOMFORTABLE EVENTS IS NOT VERY DEEP 
AND
ONLY FOUND UP TO 850MBDURING TROPICAL EVENTS...THE MOISTURE
LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH IS ABLE TO REFLECT MORE RADIATION BEFORE
IT REACHES THE SFC ALLOWING THE SFC TO STAY COOLER
OFCOURSE I HAD
TO MENTION THAT THERE IS USUALLY SOME TYPE OF BREEZE WITH A
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WHERE 
AS WITH THIS DOME...THE GRADIENT IS
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE NEGLIGABLE
USUALLY
THIS IS A MODERATELY DEEP LAYER THAT WOULD BE SLOW SPEEDS BUT AT
THIS TIME THE INTIRE COLUMN IS ALMOST WIND SPEED ABSENT
ALL OF
THIS SIMPLY SAYS THAT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WILL 
CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS
.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AND OR OUTFLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTING 
IF YOU CAN GET ITBUT THAT SIMPLY ADDS MORE MOISTURE
TO THE SOIL 
FOR WHEN THE HEATING RESUMESSOME OF THE STAGNANT
SHALLOW MARSH WATER IS REACHING TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE 
AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT WHEN THESE AREAS GIVE UP THEIR
MOISTURE EASIER 
AND THE HEAT ALONG WITH IT.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.
AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF TEMPO BR/FG LEADING TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE ANY
LGT FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF 
AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST AT ALL TERMINALS
THE ONLY ISSUE COULD BE VERY
ISLTD CONVECTION
. /CAB/

&&

.
MARINE...A QUIET FCST CONTINUES FOR THE MARINE ZONESHIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST 
AND THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS 
AND SEAS AT BAYAT BEST A LIGHT SWRLY TO WRLY WIND
IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS POSSIBLY LGT 
AND VRB AT TIMESSEAS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 2 FT 
OR LESS RANGETHE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THE
MARINE WILL BE THE EXTREME HEAT
CURRENTLY THERE ARE ALREADY HEAT
INDICES OF GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES OVER THE GULF 
AND THESE EXTREME
HI VALUES WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HRS
TEMPS WILL
NOT GET BELOW THE UPPER 80S 
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S WILL MAKE THINGS QUITE HOT
ADD IN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE OPPRESSIVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. /CAB/

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  99  76  98  76 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  99  78  98  79 
/  10  10  20  10
ASD  96  78  96  77 
/  10  10  20  10
MSY  95  80  95  79 
/  10  10  20  10
GPT  96  80  95  78 
/  10  10  20  10
PQL  97  77  96  76 
/  10  10  20  10

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA
...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON
...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA
...STCHARLES...STHELENA...STJAMES...ST.
     
JOHN THE BAPTIST...STTAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE
...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER STBERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE
...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA
.

GM...NONE.
MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER
...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE