Hardcore Weather
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html)
+--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html)



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-22-2011 06:21 AM

76F temp and 73F dewpoint this A.M. Mid 90's and a 60% rain chance for today.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
522 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...
A WETTER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GULF COAST
REGION
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RADAR GIVES A
CLEAR SIGNAL OF THIS CHANGE THIS MORNING 
AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH ARE PENETRATING INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SOUTH
LOUISIANA BEFORE DISSIPATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP INLAND 
AS THE LAND HEATS UP TO THE WATER TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING
...AND WITH MOVEMENT MOST AREAS /60 PERCENT OR SO/
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAYMOVEMENT INITIALLY WILL BE
NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...BUT THIS MAY SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE STEERING CURRENTS GET WEAKERLAKE BREEZES ON THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
/MAUREPAS/BORGNE MAY RESULT IN BACK BUILDING
OR A NET ZERO MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
/FLOOD THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON
THE EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE CLIMO AVERAGES
.

LEFTOVER EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL
SECTIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING RAIN TO 50 TO 60
PERCENT OF THE REGION
.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST 
WHILE A WEAKNESS/TROUGH AT 700 MB SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER INLAND AREASWILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...30 TO 40 PERCENT.
SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MEANS TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A BIT WARMER
.

.
LONG TERM...
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH COOLER AIR WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES 
AND NORTHEAST STATESTHIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AS FAR
SOUTH 
AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...MUCH OF IT LEFTOVER FROM
THE WEEKEND
...WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
...THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
COASTAL SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAYTHIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
...BUT HAVE KEPT THE POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE 
FOR NOWTHE GFS APPEARS TO DRIVE THE FRONT TOO
FAR SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH THEN
SPAWNS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES WEST
/NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME SHOWING A MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN 
AND
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS22/TD

&&

.
AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG AT HUM BUT WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER SITES WITH
P6SM
WILL ALSO BRING IN TS TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL SITES ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTH SHORE LOCATIONS MAY SEE A GOOD BIT OF THIS ACTIVITY ALL THE
WAY UP TO BTR
17

&&

.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL LEND TO SEAS OF ONLY A
FOOT TODAY
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PLAY OUT EACH DAY WITH A FEW
EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZES PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS 
FOR A SHORT
TIME OVER NEARSHORE WATERS
A WEAK COASTAL JET LOOKS TO SET UP OVER
THE MISS SOUND BY THE WEEKEND 
AND LAST INTO THE NEW WEEKSCATTERED
SH
/TS THROUGH THE PERIODTHERE WILL BE A MUCH HIGHER PROB OF SH/TS
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL 
FOR
WATERSPOUTS17

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  92  73 /  60  30  60  20
BTR  93  75  92  75 
/  60  30  60  10
ASD  91  74  90  75 
/  60  30  50  10
MSY  91  76  90  76 
/  60  30  60  10
GPT  91  76  90  76 
/  60  30  50  20
PQL  92  74  91  73 
/  60  30  50  20

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-23-2011 05:21 AM

75F temp and dewpoint this morning. Started raining here on the Northshore just before 4AM. No lightening or thunder, just a steady hard shower. 70% chance for the rest of the day with a high near 90F.

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS/TROUGH BETWEEN HIGHS/RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
MANY OF THESE HAVE PENETRATED QUITE A BIT MORE INLAND THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE OBVIOUSLY LOW...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH DAYTIME HEATING TO GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LAND AREAS THIS
MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING MORE INLAND LOCATIONS LATER IN THE DAY.
LIKE YESTERDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MORNING CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER..THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FROM SEABREEZES...LAKEBREEZES...AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF
SOME STREETS AND LOW LYING...POORLY DRAINED AREAS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN COVERAGE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL BY SUNSET...SO AM ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN
COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NOW LOOKS NEARLY AS WET AS TODAY WITH THE SAME BASIC
PATTERN IN PLACE. HAVE GONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE WETTER NAM MET POPS
OVER THE DRIER GFS MAV. THIS ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
STALLING OVER THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT THE POP IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT FOR NOW THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FROM AROUND 10-12Z AS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF
AFTER 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEING THE RULE AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 17Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 02Z. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO REFLECT THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 32

&&

.MARINE...
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK COASTAL JET SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUNDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH NIGHT TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS MAY ALSO RISE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DUE TO THIS
COASTAL JET FORMATION. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AND THE
TIDAL LAKES...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED. SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 72 91 73 / 70 30 70 30
BTR 89 74 91 74 / 70 20 70 20
ASD 88 74 90 74 / 70 20 60 20
MSY 89 76 90 77 / 70 20 60 20
GPT 89 74 90 75 / 70 20 60 20
PQL 89 73 91 73 / 70 20 60 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-24-2011 06:53 AM

73F temp and dewpoint outside this morning. Got some showers early yesterday and then again yesterday afternoon. 70% chance of rain today.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
525 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND NUMEROUS WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THIS WILL HELP WITH THE LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS
/DROUGHT CONDITIONSWATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS
MID
/UPPER HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WITH MOIST EASTERLIES OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION
THIS
IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THAT SEPARATES TWO RIDGES
...ONE CENTERED TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ANOTHER LARGER ONE JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL
PRODUCE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW 
AND ASSIST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE/
SEABREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT WILL HELP FOCUS THE
CONVECTION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION 
AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH PERSISTS TO THE
NORTHWEST 
AND NORTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING DAYTIME HOURS WITH
A CHANCE CONTINUING THROUGH EACH NIGHT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN AN HOUR WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING
...BUT THE THREAT OF
ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD PROBLEMS IS LOW
FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAK
...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING 
AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
.

.
LONG TERM...
THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST 
AND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
...THEN
SETTLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND
THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY 
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING MORE THAN A WAVE WITH THIS FEATURE
...AND THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD DEFLECT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH 
AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE STARTING WITH
HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY
...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TO ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY GET QUITE HOT BY
LATE IN THE WEEK 
OR NEXT WEEKEND22/TD

&&

.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT FROM AROUND 15Z TO 00ZHAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 15Z
...TO REFLECT THIS RISK. IF ANY CONVECTION LOOKS
TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY32

&&

.
MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE REGION
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF
1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE 
FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE
RISK OF A WEAK COASTAL JET FORMING OVER THE SOUNDS 
AND NEARSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS
COASTAL JET WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
...AND
COULD BRIEFLY PUSH WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTSSEAS MAY ALSO RISE
INTO THE 3 FOOT RANGE DUE TO THESE WINDS
HOWEVER...ANY RISE IN
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 
FOR 6 HOURS OR LESS32

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  72  90  74 /  80  30  60  30
BTR  89  74  91  75 
/  70  30  60  30
ASD  89  74  90  75 
/  70  30  60  30
MSY  89  75  90  76 
/  70  40  60  30
GPT  89  75  90  76 
/  70  40  60  30
PQL  90  73  92  74 
/  70  40  60  30

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-25-2011 06:13 AM

75F temp and 73F dewpoint this morning. We had another round of morning and afternoon showers yesterday. 60% chance of rain today.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
408 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYSTHERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES 
FOR RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH 
OR WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF COAST REGIONTHIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE MID 
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES
DURING THE WEEK
...THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION
THIS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES HELD DOWN BY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
DURING THE WORK WEEK WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
INFLUENCE LOCALLY
11

&&

.
AVIATION...
A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHY FOG TO THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 13Z
THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KHUM AND
KMCB.  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AROUND 3SM AT THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE
THE INVERSION LIFTS
.  AFTER THE INVERSION CLEARS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
.  HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION
.  THIS
DISTURBANCE
...COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AFTER 16Z...WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL NOT LAST LONG AT EACH TERMINAL
...BUT COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR 
AND POSSIBLY LIFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERED
CEILINGS 
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.  A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST 
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO REFLECT THIS RISK OF
CONVECTION
.  HEADING INTO TONIGHT...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO THOSE SEEN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
32

&&

.
MARINE...
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT CONCERNING THE MARINE FORECAST.  IN
GENERAL
...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES
.  THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS FAIRLY CALM...WITH SEAS OF
1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS 
AND LESS THAN A FOOT IN
THE SOUNDS 
AND LAKES.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL THE RISK OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH DAY
.  GIVEN THE LIGHT OVERALL
FLOW IN THE REGION
...WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS THESE
SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.  32

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  74  89  73 /  60  30  60  30
BTR  89  75  90  75 
/  60  30  60  30
ASD  89  75  89  75 
/  60  30  60  30
MSY  89  76  88  76 
/  60  30  60  30
GPT  89  76  89  75 
/  60  30  60  30
PQL  89  73  89  73 
/  60  30  60  30

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-26-2011 06:11 AM

We got another inch or more of rain yesterday. Ready for the monsoon to be over. 74F temp and 73F dewpoint out this A.M. 80% chance of heavy rain. Flash flood watch in effect because the ground is saturated, and any significant rain will run off immediately.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
332 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY AND PERHAPS TOMORROW AND THE
RESULTING FLASH FLOOD THREAT
A MID LEVEL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OR WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
GULF COAST REGION 
FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYSTHIS FEATURE
...ALONG WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
...WILL BE
CONDUCIVE 
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK 
OR SO...IN SOME CASES OVER
TEN INCHES
...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED GROUND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES
. AS A RESULT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED 
FOR TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
WITH A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
...ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS
THIS WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OR
REISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AT THE END OF THE WEEK 
AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS 
AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF
REGION 
AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREAA TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
GULF DURING THE WEEK
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE COAST 
AND HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST AREA
11

&&

.
AVIATION...
A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHY FOG TO THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 13Z
THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KHUM AND
KMCB.  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AROUND 3SM AT THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE
THE INVERSION LIFTS
.  AFTER THE INVERSION CLEARS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AFTER 16Z
...WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAYTHE
ACTIVITY WILL BE BASE LOADED WHICH MEANS LARGE RAINDROPS 
AND PLENTY
OF THEM PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR 
AND POSSIBLY LIFR RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS 
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIESA TEMPO GROUP
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST 
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO REFLECT
THIS RISK OF SH
/TSHEADING INTO TONIGHT...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO THOSE SEEN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
.

&&

.
MARINE...
IN GENERAL...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES
THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS FAIRLY CALM...WITH
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS 
AND LESS THAN A
FOOT IN THE SOUNDS 
AND LAKESTHE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE RISK
OF EARLY MORNING TSTMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
GIVEN THE LIGHT
OVERALL FLOW 
AND PW VALUES OVER 2"...WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  73  90  74 /  80  40  60  30
BTR  89  75  90  76 /  80  40  60  30
ASD  89  75  89  76 /  80  40  60  30
MSY  88  76  89  77 /  80  30  60  30
GPT  89  75  89  76 /  80  30  60  30
PQL  89  73  89  74 /  80  30  60  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE. 



New Orleans Local Weather thread - Joe-Nathan - 07-26-2011 12:27 PM

New Orleans broke a record rainfall yesterday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
0442 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011


Quote:..RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT NEW ORLEANS

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.34 INCHES WAS SET AT NEW ORLEANS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.73 SET
IN 2001.



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-27-2011 05:40 AM

74F temp and dewpoint this morning. Only had a few showers yesterday here in Covington, however the cloudy skies kept the temp down into the mid 80's. 70% chance of rain today. Looks like the monsoon will end by the weekend.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND N TX WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD
EASTWARD 
AND BE OVER THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAYSE LA AND S MS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE REGION
A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE WESTWARD ALONG THE SHEAR
AXIS TODAY 
AND TONIGHTCOMBINATION OF SHEAR AXIS...AND DEEP
MOISTURE
...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.25 INCH RANGE...SHOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST
CERTAINLY
LOCALIZED DRAINAGE ISSUES COULD OCCUR
BUT WILL NOT ISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REACH
AROUND 90 BEFORE SHOWER 
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIMITS
FURTHER TEMPERATURE INCREASE
.

.
LONG TERM...

AFTER TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AREA
NHC HAS UPGRADED DEVELOPMENT CHANCES TO 70 PERCENT
AS OF 2AM AS SYTEM IS AN AREA OF REDUCED SHEARPOSITIONING OF
UPPER RIDGE 
AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD WILL BE CRITICAL TO COURSE OF
SYSTEM
...STEERING SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WNW COURSEWITH UNCERTAINTY
ON DEVELOPMENT 
AND TRACK...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY 
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAYWILL ALSO MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE COASTAL REGIONS
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM
...OCCURRING AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY AND CERTAINLY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION
.

AS 
WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED
ACROSS KS 
AND OK WITH SE LA AND S MS AGAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SE
FOR DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO
AFFECT THE REGION
IN ADDITION A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
THE SE UNITED STATE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS 
FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN 40 PERCENT RANGETEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL 
AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITS AFTERNOON
HEATING
.

&&

.
AVIATION...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHY FOG TO THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND 13Z
THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KHUM AND
KMCB.  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AROUND 1/4SM AT THESE LOCATIONS
BEFORE THE INVERSION LIFTS
AFTER THE INVERSION CLEARS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AFTER 16Z
...WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAYTHE
ACTIVITY WILL BE BASE LOADED WHICH MEANS LARGE RAINDROPS 
AND PLENTY
OF THEM PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR 
AND POSSIBLY LIFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS 
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.  A
TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST 
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TO REFLECT THIS RISK OF SH
/TS.  HEADING INTO TONIGHT...VERY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO THOSE SEEN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
.

&&

.
MARINE...

SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT MARINE PACKAGETHE
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS GIVING THE STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE
EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN A 70
CHANCE OF CLOSING OFF INTO A DEPRESSION.
THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR MARINE FORECAST AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
A MID LEVEL RIDGE(THE ONE
PRODUCING ALL THE HEAT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST ALLOWING A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES DOWN INTO TEXAS
THIS MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
BACK TOWARD THE WEST FRIDAY KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF OUR
AREA 
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE TX COASTAL BEND. AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES
BACK TOWARD THE WEST
...IT WILL PRODUCE A STRONG SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO STRENGTHEN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM THU 
AND FRISWELL EMENATING FROM THE SE GULF WILL BE THE
FIRST VARIABLE SEEN IN THE COASTAL WATERS 
AS EARLY AS TONIGHTTHEN
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
PROMPTING A CAUTION HEADLINE BY THURSDAY 
AND LASTING THROUGH A
PORTION OF FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND 
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTA WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ALONG
THE COAST AGAIN BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK TO GIVE A BOOST TO
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
GIVEN THE LIGHT OVERALL SFC FLOW AND PW
VALUES OVER 2
"...WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

DECIDED TO LOOK AT THE GOOD SIDE OF THE COIN. THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE ON A PATH THAT WILL TAKE IT OVER THE TEXAS
OKLAHOMA REGIONS WHERE SOME OF THE MOST PARCHED AREAS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS EXIST. THIS WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED IN THOSE AREAS. AND
INSTEAD OF DEALING WITH THAT SAME MID LEVEL HOT RIDGE...WE WILL FALL
BACK INTO A MOIST REGIME BY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY COULD BE WHICH IS A POSITIVE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  72  93  72 /  70  30  40  30
BTR  92  73  93  74 /  70  30  40  30
ASD  90  75  92  76 /  70  30  40  30
MSY  90  76  91  77 /  70  30  40  30
GPT  90  75  90  76 /  70  30  40  30
PQL  89  75  90  76 /  70  30  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE. 



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-27-2011 12:56 PM

...

Quote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1252 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EAST NEW ORLEANS...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1248 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NORTH OF VIOLET
OVER THE MARSHES...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.



New Orleans Local Weather thread - Joe-Nathan - 07-27-2011 01:03 PM

Got to love those waterspouts.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-27-2011 01:58 PM

...
Quote:[h=3]Special Weather Statement[/h]
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA113 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011LAZ040-049-050-056>070-072-MSZ080>082-272015-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...DE​NHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...​THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN113 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY...AN EXTREMELY TROPICAL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSSTHE AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGSHOWS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS TYPE OFENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNELCLOUDS. TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THESOUTHSHORE AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.THESE TROPICAL FUNNELS TYPICALLY FORM AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY ANDMOST DO NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...A FEW MAY BRIEFLY MAKECONTACT IN MAINLY MARSHY AREAS. IF ANY FUNNEL CLOUD THAT DEVELOPSBECOMES MORE DEFINED OR APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL REACH THEGROUND...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.