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New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 06-20-2011 09:09 AM

Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 200834
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...PATTERN CHANGE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY...

.SHORT TERM...ONE MORE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IN STORE TODAY BUT
THINGS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO CHANGE TOMORROW. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
ALREADY BREAKING DOWN AND YESTERDAYS PAC NW IMPULSE HAS ALREADY DUG
JUST EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY BUT MOISTURE IS STILL GOING TO BE
AN ISSUE AS PWS ARE LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN AOB 1.5" THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHRA AND TSRA DOWN TO A MINIMUM BUT
CANT RULE OUT AN ISLTD STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EXTREME SW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE MAY RETURN MORE QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS OF
18-20C SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S BUT THIS
SHOULD BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE MID 90S FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TOMORROW THINGS WILL REALLY START TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
AND COULD TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT MON AND BY TUE MORNING PWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR 2"
AND POSSIBLY GREATER. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH S/W FLOW IN PLACE. IN THE UPPER LVLS WE
MAY BE IN RRQ OF A WEAK SPEED MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND EVEN IF
WE ARENT...WE WILL STILL HAVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. IN THE LL THE SFC
HIGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ERN GULF WHILE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MO/MS VALLEY
LEADING TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 10K FT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW CONVECTION AND MORE SO THE SEABREEZE TO ACTIVATE PRETTY
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF LIKELY
ONGOING AT SUNRISE. WITH SRLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LL AND REACHING
INTO THE MID LVLS THE SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTH RATHER
QUICKLY AND THIS IS BOTH BENEFICIAL AND A DETRIMENT FROM A RAIN
STANDPOINT. THE BIGGEST DRAWBACK WILL BE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PUSH NORTH OF THE COAST RATHER QUICKLY LIKELY LEADING TO RATHER LOW
QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. ON THE OTHER HAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
LIKELY PENETRATING WELL INLAND IT SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
10/12 CORRIDOR SEEING THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A DECENT DOWNPOUR
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTN HRS. THE SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA BY MID/LATE AFTN LIKELY LEADING TO MOSTLY
ISLTD CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTN BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS...THAT SAID LOWER
90S ARE STILL LIKELY. FROM A STRONG/SVR ASPECT...WE WILL HAVE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE BUT WE GENERALLY ALWAYS DO...THAT SAID
MID LVL HGHTS ARENT GOING TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEREFORE THE
LAPSE RATES AND VT ARENT RATHER IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...INITIALLY
THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MID LVL DRY AIR TO ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SVR STORMS EARLY BEFORE THERE AREA GETS CONTAMINATED FROM
CONVECTION. AFTER ALL THAT SAID THE BEST NEWS IS THAT TUE IS NOT THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...WED WILL BE.

WED...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE AND SHOULD BE WEST OF THE GRT LAKES
BY WED AFTN. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE MS VALLEY.
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH PWS LIKELY ATA
2". THAT SAID IT IS ONLY ABOUT 125-130% OF NORMAL BUT STILL BETTER
THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
THE TROUGH AND SRLY LL FLOW THROUGH H85(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AND DEEP AS TUE)WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. A FEW DOWNPOURS COULD BE HEAVY AND DROP SOME
DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS BUT NOT OF A MAJOR CONCERN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE THEIR DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST BACK INTO
OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME CONTINUED BUT LIGHTER RAIN
CHANCES FRI AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT WE COULD MOVE BACK INTO
DRIER AND HOT CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND SHOULD STILL BASICALLY BE
RIGHT OVER THE REGION THU BEFORE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA THU
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON THU AS WELL BUT BY FRI
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE S AND E. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS
THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THU WITH RAIN CHANCES LOWER ON FRI. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ON FRI AS WELL AS WE
MOVE UNDER NW FLOW. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER TX AND THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT THE
LOWER MS VALLEY IN NRLY FLOW AND SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION STARTING
EVEN LATER. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWER
COVERAGE...SO IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR RAIN LOOK FOR IT MAINLY ON
TUE-THU. AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ONCE AGAIN.
IN ADDITION TO THAT...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK
UP...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE RIDGE REBUILDS
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO
CONTINUED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. AS A RESULT...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 10-12Z AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THE
INVERSION SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER AT KMCB...WHERE SOME IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK. STRATUS BUILD
DOWN COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 2-3 MILES.
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW BY
15Z...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDED IN THE EVENING BUT REMAIN ELEVATED. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT OBS INDICATE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS MOST
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID
MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE AREA AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY AND TRACK
NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
ADVISORY JUST YET BUT MAY NEED TO IN FUTURE FORECASTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AND SEAS WILL RELAX FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD AS
BOUNDARY NEARS THE AREA FROM UPPER TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
COUNTRY.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 95 72 90 72 / 10 10 50 30
BTR 94 75 91 76 / 10 10 60 30
ASD 93 75 89 76 / 10 10 40 20
MSY 92 79 89 78 / 20 10 40 30
GPT 93 77 89 77 / 10 10 30 20
PQL 93 75 91 74 / 10 10 30 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
MARINE/AVIATION: MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 06-21-2011 04:21 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 210844
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...RAIN RAIN RAIN THAT IS THE WORD OF THE DAY...

.SHORT TERM...A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION YESTERDAY THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE PUSHED IN A TAD FASTER. THIS ALONG WITH LGT
NOCTURNAL SHRA ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF SUGGEST THAT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL BE FAR MORE NUMEROUS TODAY.

TODAY...MOISTURE HAS POOLED IN NICELY YESTERDAY. 0Z SNDG ALREADY HAD
PWS OF NEAR 2" BUT THERE WAS STILL SOME DRY AIR B/T H6-H3 WHICH
ALONG WITH THE LINGERING RIDGE IS WHY CONVECTION WASNT A LITTLE MORE
NUMEROUS. THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT TO SEE THE 12Z SNDG THIS MORNING LOOK
MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH LITTLE DRY AIR. FCST SNDGS SUGGEST THIS
AS WELL. THE MID LVL RIDGE HAS SUFFICIENTLY BROKEN DOWN AND PUSHED
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TROPICAL
AIRMASS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND EVEN THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH
SUGGEST RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHRA AND TSRA. DEEP SRLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 10K FT IS STILL FCSTED OVER THE REGION AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE SEABREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND RATHER QUICKLY
TODAY. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRETTY GOOD
RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM PIERRE PART TO
POPLARVILLE. THE COASTAL AREAS OF LA MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE
THANKS TO THE DEEP SRLY FLOW LEADING TO THE SEABREEZE PUSHING NORTH
BEFORE CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THAT SAID AFTN HEATING
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST SO NOT ALL IS
LOST. THE MS COAST WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST DIFFICULTY IN SEEING
DECENT COVERAGE.

FROM A STANDPOINT OF STRONG TO SVR WEATHER...WE OF COURSE WILL BE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS OF -2
TO -C. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT AROUND 6.5 C/KM WITH VT OF 25-26C. IN ADDITION TO
THAT WITH PWS OF 2" OR GREATER WITH NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA
DEVELOPING QUICKLY TODAY THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME
CONTAMINATED LEADING TO ONLY A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE MICROBURST...FREQUENT TO CONSTANT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WED AND THU...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY WED. THE
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL
BE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WED. THIS WILL BRING THE L/W TROUGH OVER
THE ENTIRE MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL BE STACKED
AND WITH A BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND NO NOTICEABLE
S/W KICKER THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST LEAVING THE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 DAYS. A TROPICAL AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2" AND WITH THE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SHRA AND TSRA WONT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM DEVELOPING.
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON WED. SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE ON THU
WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO
GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE S AND E. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD THE RIDGE OVER TX AND SRN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN AND TRY TO SLOWLY NUDGE IT BACK TO THE EAST NEXT
WEEK. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MEX GUI WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH
THE CURRENT FCST. ONLY REAL CHANGES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THIS
WEEKEND.

THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND DECENT MOISTURE WILL STILL
LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AS WE MOVE INTO FRI. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME LESS NOTICEABLE THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS WEEKEND BUT SHOULD
NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUFFICIENTLY PUT THE KIBOSH ON
CONVECTION SO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER LATE IN THE DAY AS MID
LVL FLOW WILL BE NW-NRLY. BY THE TIME WE PUSH INTO NEXT WEEK THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND MAY END UP BRINGING
THE DRY WEATHER AND HEAT BACK INTO THE REGION. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS. IN ADDITION..
SHOWER COVERAGE IS STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL BE MOVING INLAND SHORTLY. DURING THE DAY...WITH BETTER
MOISTURE...EXPECT MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH MORE
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE OUT
AROUND 02Z AS WAS THE CASE THIS EVENING. EXPECT ELEVATED WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO HAS
TIGHTENED ENOUGH TO PUSH WINDS INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS GRADIENT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING BY LATE
MORNING. THE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS ARE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FCST WINDS TO OBS OF 20 KTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
ADV WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
THEN EXERCISE CAUTION THE REST OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...SCT TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL WATERS TODAY.
WINDS REALLY WONT LIGHTEN TO MUCH UNTIL WED. AT THAT POINT...SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO THE AREA BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY UNTIL
IT RETROGRADES BACK EASTWARD. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME THIS
WEEKEND.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 72 90 70 / 70 20 80 40
BTR 92 74 91 73 / 70 30 80 40
ASD 91 76 89 73 / 50 20 70 40
MSY 91 77 89 75 / 50 20 70 40
GPT 91 77 88 75 / 40 20 60 40
PQL 92 76 90 73 / 30 20 60 40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER JEFFERSON...AND LOWER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 06-22-2011 10:21 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 220852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011


.SYNOPSIS...MAIN PLAYER IS A STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. L/W TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS DOWN
INTO DEEP TX. SERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WHILE RIDGE
IS BUILDING WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LARGE MCS MOVING THROUGH
ERN AND SERN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPED YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NWRN 3RD OF THE CWA WITH BTR AND MCB AIRPORTS
RECEIVING 2.89 AND 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN RESPECTIVELY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE WELCOME IN FACE OF THE DROUGHT WE HAVE BEEN
DEALING WITH.

TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE ENTIRE MS VALLEY
WITH MID LVL HGHTS COOLING A FEW DEGREES. 00Z SNDG STILL SHOWED THIS
AREA OF DRIER AIR FROM H55-H45 BUT PWS WERE OVER 2". WITH THIS
AIRMASS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG AGAIN TODAY
FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO INITIATE. ALREADY WIDELY SCT CONVECTION IN THE
MARINE ZONES AND THIS ACTIVITY IS WORKING NORTH AND AS SOON AS THE
SUN COMES UP CONVECTION WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAND AREAS.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE
NRN HALF ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RECEIVE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF RAIN THANKS TO DEEP SRLY FLOW LEADING TO THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE
AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE NEAR 3" OF RAIN AGAIN TODAY AS A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS COMBINES WITH A RATHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AS FOR SVR...INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE
BETTER THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. VT WILL ACTUALLY APPROACH 29C
AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES COULD BE NEAR 7 C/KM WHICH IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR HOWEVER THIS GREATLY DEPENDS ON
CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE ISSUE FROM A SVR STANDPOINT IS
IF CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD RATHER QUICKLY THEN THE AIRMASS
WILL BECOME QUITE CONTAMINATED AND THE REGION NOT REALIZING THE
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. NOW ON THE OTHER HAND THE FIRST FEW CELLS
THAT GO UP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG/SVR AS THEY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE INSTABILITY W/OUT COMPETITION. MAIN CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MICROBURSTS...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE THING FOR US TO WATCH
TODAY WILL BE HOW FAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND HOW MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING WE CAN ACTUALLY GET.

TOMORROW THINGS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SHRA AND TSRA. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE NO PROBLEMS GETTING NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY NOT BE AS EFFICIENT ON THU AS WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DIVERGENT ALOFT AS TODAY. ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT IT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST FINALLY
OVER THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES. GOING INTO THU NIGHT AND FRI...THE
INITIAL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST BUT ANOTHER WEAK S/W
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL WORK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W TROUGH
AND PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI. THIS WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF
RATHER DECENT RAIN CHANCES WITH PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE THE RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDING AND SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL NOT
MAKE MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM GUI.

THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME
AND WORK EAST OVER TX THIS WEEKEND. BY SUN A 592-593 RIDGE WILL BE
CNTRD OVER WRN TX. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND SLOWLY WORK ENE. BY TUE A STOUT RIDGE IS BEING FCSTED
BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND
THUS KEEPS THE REGION WARMER AND DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST WE WILL BE UNDER NWRLY-NRLY FLOW AND
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION BEGINNING MUCH LATER IN THE DAY. AS
THE RIDGE WORKS EAST RAIN CHANCES WILL GET LOWER. AS FOR
TEMPS...THEY WILL ALSO GET WARMER WITH MID 90S EXPECTED BACK IN THE
CWA THIS WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DRASTICALLY DECREASED OVER INLAND AREAS
WHILE OFFSHORE ACTIVITY IS INCREASING...AS EXPECTED. TAF SITES
CLOSER TO THE COAST SUCH AS MSY/HUM/GPT/HSA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
LIGHTER SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. INLAND COVERAGE WILL EXPAND
SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...VISIBILITIES COULD BE 2 MILES OR LESS
AND CIGS LESS THAN 1KFT WITH STRONGER STORMS. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SUSTAINED
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS IN THE MID 20S. GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SPARSE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING BY NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY WHICH IS KEEPING CENTER OF SFC RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
LIGHT TO MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WELL
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 15. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND CLOSER TO THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 72 92 71 / 90 30 60 30
BTR 92 75 92 75 / 90 30 60 30
ASD 91 75 91 73 / 80 30 70 20
MSY 91 76 90 76 / 80 30 70 30
GPT 90 76 88 75 / 70 40 70 20
PQL 91 74 90 73 / 70 40 60 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 06-23-2011 06:06 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...
STATIONARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BECOME ACTIVATED WITH
THE SLIGHTEST HEATING. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW A
PRONOUNCED VORTICITY SWIRL OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TAHT SHOULD FOLLOW THE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TODAY SO WILL GO WITH
70 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS HEAVY
RAINFALL IN PLACES THAT MAY BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS...AS IMPLIED BY THE WRF ALONG LAKE BREEZES LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN PATTERN IS GOING A LONG WAY
IN MITIGATING THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND BATON ROUGE HAS
NOW GONE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. NEW ORLEANS NEEDS
ABOUT ANOTHER 3/4 OF AN INCH TO REACH MONTHLY NORMAL...AND CAN
EASILY DO SO TODAY. WILL GO ALONG WITH NOTION OF RAINFALL TAPERING
OFF BY TONIGHT AND LOWER POPS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE DAILY
RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY DRIVEN BY LAKE AND GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING FROM TEXAS OVER A STEADY STATE
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. GFS...DGEX AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TRAVELING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW SUCH A SOLUTION. THE GFS BULKS THE
PW VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK IF THE
GULF LOW DOES DEVELOP...SPELLING ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
REGIME BEFORE THE CLOSE OF JUNE. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED FROM RUN-TO-RUN TO ENSURE IT IS NOT AN ARTIFACT OF
BOUNDARY CONDITION MODELING. DESPITE ANY DEVELOPMENT...THE OVERALL
PATTERN WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR DECENT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE AND DEPTH OF TROPICAL FLOW INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR AT BTR TO VLIFR AT MCB. CEILINGS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY CHANGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE THROUGH THE ARE. A LARGE CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAINFALL CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM TERREBONNE PARISH ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR BRO. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. EXPECT VARYING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL BETWEEN THE BREAKS. HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE MORNING SHOULD
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SPARSE IN THE AFTN. VIS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1
MILE OR SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL IN GENERAL. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM VERMILLION BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH
TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. CURRENT DISCRETE CELLS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE LINEAR ACTIVITY THATS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND
THEN LIGHTER WITH TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THUS SEAS WILL FALL
SLIGHTLY AS WELL.

NO COGENT CHANGES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ONCE THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. SOUTH TO EVEN SW WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO SE OR EVEN EAST WINDS BY NEXT WEEK. ONE CHANGE MADE TO
THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS WAS REMOVAL OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND MID WEEK. GFS SHOWS A TROPICAL TYPE SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVING
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH RESULTS IN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. THINK ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO JUST THROW THESE WINDS IN
THE FCST VERBATIM. ESPECIALLY KNOWING HOW ECMWF WAS THE BEST PERFORMING
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL LAST YEAR AND IT DOES NOT SHOW THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION. IT TAKES A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 71 92 72 / 70 10 20 10
BTR 88 74 93 73 / 70 20 20 10
ASD 87 72 92 72 / 70 20 30 10
MSY 87 75 91 75 / 70 20 30 10
GPT 85 74 91 74 / 70 20 30 20
PQL 87 72 93 74 / 70 20 30 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 06-24-2011 05:29 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240825
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...
A LARGE BUT SHRINKING AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIGHT RAINFALL
FROM A MID-LEVEL DECK WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE PARISHES
THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AND TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE DEEPER INSTABILITY WAS NOTED. THE LARGE RAIN AREA
APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A VORTICITY FEATURE AT AND ABOVE 500
MB AS EVIDENCED BY WEAK BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE IN WATER VAPOR
LOOP. THE FORECAST AREA IS THE FRINGE OF DEEP FETCHED MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A LARGE MCS WAS BLOSSOMING IN THE
WEST GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD IN TIME. DRY AIR
SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM TEXAS THOUGH WATER VAPOR SHOWS
THE DRIEST AIR ACTUALLY MIGRATING SOUTH INTO MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE DRYNESS AS PROMINENTLY AS PREVIOUS RUNS
BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BACK RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS
AND POPS IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH IS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS STILL LEAVES ROOM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
MAINLY SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PRETTY MUCH DICTATE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-GULF
STATE REGION APPEARS TO STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
COL DURING THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...TROUGHS ORIENTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ ORIENTED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LOWER GULF REGION. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
SPELLS SHORT-LIVED AND LIMITED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE CYCLONIC SYSTEM IN THE LOWER
GULF EMANATING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT
APPEARS STACKED AND A REFLECTION OF UPPER TUTT CIRCULATION. THIS
IS NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE OMINOUS APPEARANCES IN THE MODEL DOMAIN. A
MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITION ARISES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WHEN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR RELAXES AND A NON-DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPS ALOFT...AS THE ECMWF TENDS TO SHOW IN THE EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF ITS RUN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM
CAN`T DEVELOP IN THE WEST GULF TO PRODUCE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND
WAKE DEPRESSION DYNAMIC POSSIBILITIES MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK IN THE GULF. LOCALLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN TAKES PLACE IN
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM HUM TO MSY THEN
EASTWARD OUT INTO THE GULF AND SOUTH FOR ANOTHER 50 MILES OR SO.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGH BASE AND MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
DRIZZLE. EXPECT CLOUDCOVER TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT RAIN TO
BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
THE REST OF THE DAY BUT MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MVFR TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES CEILINGS WILL LIFT BY MORNING.
MOST TAF SITES WILL BECOME VFR AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE MOST PART
FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
MAJORITY OF COASTAL WATERS ENGULFED IN A LARGE CLUSTER OF LIGHT
RAINFALL THIS MORNING ALONG A STALLED TROUGH AXIS. THERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH. THESE STORMS APPEAR
TO BE FAIRLY DOCILE WITH GUSTS LIKELY AROUND 20 KTS. SCT STORMS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LIGHTER RAIN
DISSIPATES. WINDS AND SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WITH SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
TUTT LOW TYPE FEATURE MOVE FROM THE CARRIBEAN INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE MID WEEK. PREFER TO STICK WITH ECMWF SOLUTION OF MUCH
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WHICH KEEPS WINDS/SEAS AT
SE10KTS/2-4FT. MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 70 93 71 / 20 10 20 10
BTR 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 92 72 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 91 75 91 76 / 30 10 20 10
GPT 91 74 91 75 / 30 20 20 20
PQL 93 72 93 72 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR


New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 06-25-2011 12:56 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 251621
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD.
WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. IF ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEAR A
TERMINAL...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS.
KMCB WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY THIS INVERSION...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AROUND 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE FLIGHT RAN SMOOTHLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW SOUNDINGS. DRIER AIR IS
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ABOVE 500MB...WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS. PW VALUES ARE LITTLE CHANGED...AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL BE EASILY REACHED...SO EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK WHICH DOES NOT
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND LONG LASTING UPDRAFTS.
THUS...THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
VERY LOW. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY WEAK...SO ANY STORMS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...EXPECT
NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT. THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
RAIN COOLED AIR BLOCKS WARMER AIR FROM FEEDING INTO THE UPDRAFT
COLUMN OF THE THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011/

SHORT TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE COUPLED WITH DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO JUST ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE FEATURES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
LOCALLY...A PERSISTENCE OF BERMUDA RIDGE REGIME FOR THE MOST PART
THOUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH MAY
SETTLE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES A
BIT ALONG A BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS...PER THE GFS. THE GFS
ALSO CONTINUES TO WAVER WITH EACH RUN ON LOW PRESSURE CYCLOGENESIS
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THIS STILL LOOKS SUSPECT AND POSSIBLY A
MODEL ARTIFACT WITHIN THE GFS AS THE ECMWF AND DGEX DISCOUNT SUCH
A FEATURE. FROM A TELECONNECTION APPROACH...THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT
WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT OF NON-HOSTILE CONDITIONS...
PRIMARILY PINNED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS SHEAR WOULD BE MORE
PRONOUNCED ALONG WITH CONTINENTAL DRY FETCH FARTHER NORTH.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE STEADY STATE FLOW UNDERWAY AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE TROPICAL CARIBBEAN AND LOWER
GULF FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE OR CLOSED LOW NEXT WEEK AS GFS
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAROCLINIC TUTT LOW FEATURE TRANSLATING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN TIME HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AMPLE TIME
TO WATCH TRENDS BUT NO SHORT-TERM CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 71 94 72 / 20 10 20 10
BTR 93 73 94 73 / 30 10 10 10
ASD 92 74 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 91 76 92 77 / 30 10 20 10
GPT 91 75 91 74 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 92 72 91 73 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...95/DM
SOUNDING/AVIATION...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...24/RR


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-30-2011 06:47 AM

74F out this morning with a predicted 95F high this afternoon. 10% rain chance.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
532 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR ABOVE 750 MB AND A MID/UPPER HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL KEEP SHOWERS 
AND
THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS OVER LAND
...AND OVER THE GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS
...BUT THE DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS NECESSARY 
FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSLESS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL MEAN HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREAS REACHING THE MID 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND
FORTUNATELY...THE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE 
AS OPPRESSIVE AS WE CAN SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR
...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDICES BELOW 105 DEGREES...SO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET
REGARDLESS...AREAS
THAT RECEIVE SUN MOST OF THE DAY WILL EXPERIENCE DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS AT TIMES 
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

.
LONG TERM...
THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 700 MB EITHER
SUNDAY 
OR ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN
WILL NOT BE THAT FAVORABLE 
FOR DECENT SEA/LAKE BREEZE OR OTHER
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
HAVE CONTINUED THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY 
AND A LOW END
CHANCE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
THE MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING 
AND PLACEMENT OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT TRIES TO
WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK
THERE STILL SHOULD BE A WEAKNESS OR INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
/NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION
THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER A COUPLE DEGREES DURING THE
PERIOD
...BUT IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR
22/TD

&&

.
AVIATION...
CBRZ AND LAKE BRZ WILL BE ACTIVE AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH LESS
MOISTURE
THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER SH/TS DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY
WILL NOT TEMPO TS IN FOR ANY AREAS SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
17

&&

.
MARINE...
SWELL GENERATED BY TROP STORM ARLENE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.
WILL KEEP A LONG PERIOD SWELL IN THE FCAST AT 3 FEETTHERE IS
LITTLE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LEADING TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
SPEEDS SO WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND WAVE
PRODUCTION
...LENDING MOSTLY SWELL HEIGHTS TO MAKE UP THE TOTAL SEA
CONDITIONS
THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AT A LONG PERIOD OF
ABOUT 8
SECONDSSH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS TODAY BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
NOCTURNAL
TS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE RISE 
AS WELLWINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
17

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  96  74  96  74 
/  20  10  20  10
ASD  95  72  94  73 
/  10  10  10  10
MSY  94  76  94  75 
/  20  10  20  10
GPT  96  73  94  75 
/  10  10  10  10
PQL  96  69  95  71 
/  20  10  10  10

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-01-2011 06:26 AM

Got a strong thunderstorm yesterday afternoon which dropped almost an inch of rain. 75F temp and 75F dewpoint outside this A.M., with the high expected to be in the mid to high 90's.
PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
543 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...
A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY
FROM WARMER AIR 
AND LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE SUPPORTED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING 
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND SOME
SURROUNDING LAND AREAS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS AND
EXTENDS 
FROM NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI 
AND INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS NEAR 
AND NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARYMID/UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK
SEABREEZE 
AND LAKE BREEZES WILL HELP FOCUS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE IN MOST AREAS WILL BE 10 PERCENT
EXCEPT WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL 
AND
COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NEAR THE SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHEAR
AXIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES
.

THE SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT THERE MAY
BE A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AS THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA 
AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

.
LONG TERM...
THE 500 MB HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY 
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAYDISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL 
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE HIGH...AND AM EXPECTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MAIN MID/UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES 
AND 4 CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST REGION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MORE
A MARITIME RIDGE THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE EMBEDDED VORTICITY 
AND
DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT. FOR THAT REASON...AM
KEEPING A LOW END CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY LOWER A DEGREE OR SO...BUT HIGHS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS
A RIDGE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND EAST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT A GENERAL
WEAKNESS
/SHEAR AXIS WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND THROUGH OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT THE MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES
22/TD

&&

.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO FORM AT KMCB THIS
MORNING
THIS FOG WILL ONLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR
RANGE BEFORE CLEARING AROUND 13
-14ZFOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AROUND 10Z TOMORROW
ADDITIONALLY...SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
DUE TO THE LOW RISK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IMPACTING A TERMINAL
...THERE IS NO MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
. IF ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO THREATEN A
TERMINAL
...APPROPRIATE UPDATES CAN BE MADE32

&&

.
MARINE...
THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT
FLOW 
AND DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT OVERALL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VARIABLE
WIND PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS 
AND TIDAL LAKESDURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS
...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LATE MORNING 
AND AFTERNOON HOURSTHIS FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
...AS A LANDBREEZE
FORMS
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS...AND SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE
WINDS WILL TURN MORE PERSISTENT OUT OF
THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS32

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  70  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  97  74  96  75 
/  10  10  10  10
ASD  95  73  95  75 
/  10  10  20  10
MSY  94  77  94  77 
/  10  10  20  10
GPT  94  75  95  76 
/  10  10  20  10
PQL  96  71  95  74 
/  10  10  20  10

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-02-2011 05:25 AM

Had a small thunderstorm yesterday afternoon, but it didn't drop much rain. 75F temp and 75F dewpoint this morning. High in the mid to high 90's with a 20% chance.

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...
AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY PERIOD
THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES 
AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY
FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS..ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
...ALONG WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL 
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT 
AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAWE WILL AGAIN
ONLY INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA
MODELS HAVE HINTED AT SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES SUNDAY 
AND MONDAYALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ON THOSE DAYS
...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE MID 90S THROUGH MONDAY
...LOWER AFTERNOON DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S RANGE
WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK
...MAINLY IN THE 99 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE
11

.LONG TERM...
BEYOND MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT 
AND SHIFT WESTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE GREAT LAKES
...NORTHEAST...AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS WITH A
WEAKNESS ALOFT FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 
AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK
DEEPER MOISTURE IS
ALSO FORECAST TO 
RETURN. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER SOMEWHAT 
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODELS FORECAST A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE END OF THE WEEK TIME FRAME
11

&&

.
AVIATION...
EARLIER LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER/NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN HAS DISSIPATED
...AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS WERE VFR WITH
CLEAR SKIES 
AND SOME HAZE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AS OF 08Z.
EXPECT ANOTHER MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL SUMMER DAY TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA
/TSRA AND ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER...THE
LIGHT WIND PATTERN 
AND MINOR TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ALOFT MAY BE
CONDUCIVE 
FOR ADDITIONAL HAZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY RESTRICT VSBYS
TO AROUND 6 MILES AT TIMES
...LOWER FOR SLANT VISIBILITIES22/TD


&&

.
MARINE...
A CHECK OF OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST 30 HOURS OR SO SHOWS PEAK
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND 
AND
SOME OF THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE
...TURNING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING AND PEAKING
AROUND 15 KNOTS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BARRIER ISLANDS DURING THE LATE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS
ELSEWHERE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WATERS IS RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS 
OR LESSSEAS/WAVE HEIGHTS WERE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF
OF MEXICO DURING MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHER WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE 
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...HOWEVER...THIS
PATTERN SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE TIDE CYCLES
THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE PLACEMENT 
AND TIMING OF ANY INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGHS EMANATING OUT OF THE TROPICS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF 
AND POSSIBLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ANY OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BE WEAK 
AND HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS THE NEXT 5 DAYS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF IMPACTS FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE 6 
OR 7 DAYS OUT22/TD

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  71  95  72 /  10  10  20  20
BTR  96  74  96  74 
/  10  10  20  20
ASD  95  75  95  74 
/  20  10  20  20
MSY  95  77  95  77 
/  20  10  20  20
GPT  96  76  95  75 
/  20  10  20  20
PQL  95  74  95  73 
/  20  10  20  20

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-03-2011 07:00 AM

75F temp and dewpoint again this A.M. 20% rain chance. Same old, same old!

PHP Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
NEW ORLEANS LA
312 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING
.
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPITEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RATHER RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING 
AND WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S BY NOON.

&&

.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS 
AND THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH BEHIND IT.
THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO 
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME
11

&&

.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY...ALTHOUGH AT TIMES
VARIABLE
...WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD11

&&

.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  98  70  98  70 /  20  20  20  20
BTR  99  73  97  72 
/  20  20  20  20
ASD  96  74  96  74 
/  20  20  20  20
MSY  96  76  95  76 
/  20  20  20  20
GPT  94  75  95  73 
/  20  20  20  20
PQL  94  74  94  74 
/  20  20  20  20

&&

.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE