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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-27-2006 08:37 AM

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
305 Am Cdt Tue Jul 25 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning There Was Deep Tropical Moisture Continuing To
Pump Into The Lower Mississippi Valley. Precip Water Values Should
Remain At Or Above 2 Inches Again Today. This Will Lead To Another
Day Of Scattered To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms For Our
Pcwa. The Area Of Disturbed Weather Over The Western Gulf Of
Mexico Should Continue To Drift Northward. Currently The Nam Shows
The Area Becoming Better Organized And Moving Into Central
Texas...whereas The Gfs Shows Less Organization And Spreads More
Convection Toward Our Area On Wednesday. After This System Moves
Inland...an Upper-level Ridge Will Build Across The Lower
Mississippi Valley On Thursday And Friday. This Will Lead To
Precip Chances Lowering Somewhat For The Latter Part Of The Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 88 72 88 72 / 60 40 60 30
Btr 88 73 88 74 / 70 40 60 30
Msy 88 75 88 76 / 60 30 50 30
Gpt 89 76 89 76 / 40 20 50 20

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-28-2006 08:46 AM

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Fxus64 Klix 250805
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
305 Am Cdt Tue Jul 25 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning There Was Deep Tropical Moisture Continuing To
Pump Into The Lower Mississippi Valley. Precip Water Values Should
Remain At Or Above 2 Inches Again Today. This Will Lead To Another
Day Of Scattered To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms For Our
Pcwa. The Area Of Disturbed Weather Over The Western Gulf Of
Mexico Should Continue To Drift Northward. Currently The Nam Shows
The Area Becoming Better Organized And Moving Into Central
Texas...whereas The Gfs Shows Less Organization And Spreads More
Convection Toward Our Area On Wednesday. After This System Moves
Inland...an Upper-level Ridge Will Build Across The Lower
Mississippi Valley On Thursday And Friday. This Will Lead To
Precip Chances Lowering Somewhat For The Latter Part Of The Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 88 72 88 72 / 60 40 60 30
Btr 88 73 88 74 / 70 40 60 30
Msy 88 75 88 76 / 60 30 50 30
Gpt 89 76 89 76 / 40 20 50 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Ziggy - 07-28-2006 08:48 AM

This looks like the same discussion for the past three days./help


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-29-2006 07:51 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
251 Am Cdt Sat Jul 29 2006

.discussion...
All Numerical Models Are Showing That The Weak Upper Level Trough
That Currently Extends From East Tennessee To Northeast La Will Slowly
Drift Down To The Gulf Coast Over The Next Several Days And Become
Nearly Stationary. The Trough Will Provide A Favorable Upper
Level Focus For Afternoon And Evening Showers And Thunderstorms.
In The Lower Levels There Will Be Plenty Of Moisture And Daytime
Instability As Southerly Flow Continues To Dominate The Region On
The Western Side Of The Atlantic Ridge. The Bottom Line Is That
That There Will Be No Significant Changes Made To The Grids For
The Morning Forecast Package. &&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 92 73 90 72 / 40 20 50 20
Btr 93 74 91 74 / 40 20 50 20
Msy 92 78 90 76 / 40 20 50 20
Gpt 91 75 90 75 / 40 20 50 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-31-2006 03:08 AM

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
300 Am Cdt Mon Jul 31 2006

.discussion...not Much Change Made To The Current Forecast Grids
This Morning. Another Good Round Of Showers And Thunderstorms
Should Be On Tap For The Area Later Today. An Old Mcs Working
Southward Across Western Alabama May Leave Enough Residual Outflow
Boundaries Across The Region To Aid In The Convective Development.
Past Today...weak Ridging Aloft Continues To Drift Eastward Across
The Region Helping To Further Rain Chances Later This Week. At The
Surface...high Pressure Should Become Better Established Across
The Eastern Gulf Keeping A Persistent And Warm Southerly Flow Into
The Area With Afternoon Temperatures Approaching The Mid 90s By
Week. Would Not Totally Rule Out An Isolated Shower Or Storm As
Next Weekend Approaches Given The Layered Instability In Place.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-01-2006 08:41 AM

Fxus64 Klix 010839
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
339 Am Cdt Tue Aug 1 2006

.discussion...expect Another Round Of Showers And Thunderstorms
Today As High Pw`s Interact With Anorther Weak Disturbance Aloft
Working Its Way Southward Across The Region. Today Though Looks
To Be In The End For Better Rain Cahnces For A Few Days At Least
As Drier Air Begins To Filter Into The Mid And Upper Levels Of The
Atmosphere. Weak Ridging Aloft Expanding Eastward Across The
Lower Southeast Should Also Help Suppress Much In The Way Of Rain
Chances. Afternoon Temperatures Should Also Climb Into The Mid 90s
By Mid Week With Only An Isolated Chance Of Convection Expected.
The Bermuda High At The Surface Looks To Remain In Control Across
The Eastern Gulf For Much Of The Week Helping To Advect Warm Gulf
Air Into The Area. The Surface High May Then Shift Back Toward The
East By This Weekend Allowing For More Gulf Moisture To Work Back
Into The Region. This May Help Increase Rain Chances For The
Upcoming Weekend While Perhaps Trimming Affternoon Temperatures A
Few Degrees.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-02-2006 05:22 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS ACTIVE TODAY AS IT
HAS BEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER
INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD POINT
TO BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID 90S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE
MOISTURE INFLUX INCREASES. THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN IS T.S.
CHRIS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM NHC DOES INDICATE CHRIS STRENGTHENING INTO A MINIMAL
HURRICANE AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY 120 HR
OUT. CHRIS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SE GULF IF THE FORECAST IS
CLOSE BY NEXT WORK WEEK. ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE THIRD STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-03-2006 07:46 AM

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
336 Am Cdt Thu Aug 3 2006

.discussion...little Change Made To The Forecast Grids This
Morning As A Tranquil And Warm Pattern Continues For Another Day
Or So. Upper Ridge Remains Positioned Over The Southern Plains
Helping To Suppress Much In The Way Of Any Rain Chances. The
Bermuda High Also Remains In Place Across The Lower Atlantic Basin
With Light And Warm Southerly Flow Continuing. The Models Though
Still Indicate A Weakening In The Upper Ridge Pattern By Sat As An
Embedded Disturbance Passes Westward Over The Region Helping To
Increase Rain Chances And Lower Afternoon Temps A Few Degrees. The
Ridge Pattern Though Looks To Become Well Established Again By
Next Week With Temperatures Again Climbing Into The Mid 90s With
Perhaps Slightly Below Normal Pops. The Forecast For T.s. Chris Is
Not As Aggressive This Morning With The System Struggling To
Maintain Its Organization. The Latest Forecast Now Tracks Chris
Westward Across The Cuban Peninsula Never Strengthening More Than
A Minimal Tropical Storm. The System Could Still Enter The Lower
Se Gulf By Next Week...but The Integrity Of The Storm Will Be Very
Much In Question.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-04-2006 06:00 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLIX 040815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW SCT POPS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS A WEAK UPPER LOW OR
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES. THE RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED BY THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW SCT CAT AT BEST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS T.S. CHRIS...THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE...BUT STILL REMAINS
A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CUBAN PENINSULA. IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF...THE
TRACK THEN CARRIES THE SYSTEM TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS NEVER EXCEEDING
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE ONLY INFLUENCE FOR THE LOCAL AREA
MAY BE SOME INCREASED WIND AND SWELL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM MOVES WESTWARD.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-07-2006 08:55 AM

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
325 Am Cdt Mon Aug 7 2006

.discussion...

Major Changes In Thinking For This Forecast...as The Medium Range
Models Pick Up On A Developing Tutt Low To The East Of Florida.
The Ecmwf And The Gfs Both Send This Upper Level Low Across
Florida Wednesday And Bring Into Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico
By Thursday. However...it Appears That The Gfs Is A Bit Too
Progressive With This System...and Weakens The Strong Ridge Across
The Central Conus To Quickly For My Tastes. As A Result...have
Decided To Lean More Toward The Ecmwf Solution From Thursday
Through The Weekend. Expect The Tutt Low To Affect The Area
Friday...as The Ridge Axis Sets Up Over Southern And Central
Plains. As This Low Moves To The West On Saturday...a Deepening
Mid-latitude Trough In The Great Lakes Will Send A Weak Frontal
Boundary Into The Region. This Front Will Stall Over The Forecast
Area Saturday Night And Linger Over The Region Through Monday.
Keep Pops In The Chance Range Saturday Through Monday...with The
Best Chance On Saturday...as The Front Drives Into The Deep
Tropical Moisture Across The Region. Due To The Expected Increase
In Rainfall And Cloud Cover From Midweek On...have Dropped Temps
From The Mid 90s Back Into The Upper 80s And Lower 90s.

In The Short Term...not Much Change In Thinking For Today And
Tomorrow As The Upper Level Low That Affected The Region This
Weekend Slides Into Texas...and The Ridge Builds In From The
Northeast. Keep Pops In The Low End Chance Range And Have Temps
Climb Back Into The Lower 90s Across The Cwa. Keep Pops In Through
The Overnight Hours For Coastal Areas...as The Landbreeze Should
Kick In Both Nights...firing Off Coastal Showers And Thunderstorms
Toward Daybreak. Overall...a More Typical Summer Pattern Is
Expected The Next 48 Hours.