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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-06-2010 05:40 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CST MON DEC 6 2010

.SHORT TERM...
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOVING OVER AREA HAVING MINIMAL AFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
FREEZE LINE FROM POPLARVILLE TO JUST NORTH OF BATON ROUGE WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST GETTING TO 32 DEGREES AT 3 AM. LIGHTER WINDS IN
THE LOWER PART OF THE COLUMN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. FREEZE LINE
LIKELY TO ALREADY BE DOWN THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BY
MIDNIGHT AND SETTLE TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST BY 5 AM TUESDAY.
WILL UPGRADE TO FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WITH THIS PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE AND WENT
PRETTY CLOSE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE OUT OF NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS LOUISIANA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT. A VERY BRIEF AND INCONSEQUENTIAL PASSING OF LIGHT
FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FAST MOVING FEATURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN FORECAST PRODUCTS...OR TO ELICIT ANY SORT OF ACTIONS
FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATES. A BRIEF WARMING
TREND GETS UNDERWAY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT AND COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW MODEL IMPLICATIONS AT WINTER TYPE
PRECIPITATION BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT ANY
MENTION BEYOND JUST A SIMPLE RECOGNITION IN THIS DISCUSSION. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS AT KNEW THIS MORNING SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
18Z. 35
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS OR ABOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 15 KNOTS OR LOWER OVER TIDAL LAKES.
HAVE LOWERED ADVISORY TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL
CONTINUE ADVISORY ELSEWHERE THROUGH NOON. WINDS WILL DROP OFF FOR A
WHILE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY RETURN TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS BEFORE DROPPING OFF AGAIN.

SHOULD BE SEVERAL DAYS OF MORE PLACID WINDS AND SEAS FOR MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BY SUNDAY. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
BEYOND CURRENT CWF...BUT APPEARS IN THE WIND AND SEA GRIDS. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 24 52 31 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 52 26 55 34 / 0 0 10 10
ASD 53 24 54 32 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 53 33 53 38 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 54 25 54 33 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 53 23 53 31 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-07-2010 06:41 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THE HARD FREEZE DID VERIFY AS NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS IN
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES WERE AT OR BELOW 27
DEGREES AS OF 3 AM. MOST HAVE BEEN BELOW 30 DEGREES SINCE 11 PM.
IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA...AREAS AWAY FROM THE WARMER LAKE
AFFECTS HAVE MANAGED TO GO BELOW 32 DEGREES BUT THE OFFICIAL SITES
LIKE KMSY AND KNEW HAVE HELD UP AROUND 40 DEGREES THUSFAR. AUDUBON
WAS AT 38. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-
MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THIS ROUND FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE FEATURE
CURRENTLY DETECTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER COLORADO AND FALLING
BEHIND SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
AND UPPER MEXICO. THIS TIGHT VORTICITY STRUCTURE SHOULD BRING
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE SOME LOW VALUED PRECIPITATION IN ITS
PATH DUE PRIMARILY TO ISENTROPIC LIFT IN LIMITED UPGLIDE REGION
JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
USING 290K SURFACE YIELDS SOME SATURATION AT THE 850-800 MB LAYER
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL WIND VECTORS
ALONG THE ISENTROPS IS RATHER NEUTRAL LOOKING OR EVEN MODEST DOWN
GLIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FOR
PRECIPITATION GENERATION IN THIS REGIME. GIVEN THE SYSTEM PASSING
AT THE TYPICALLY COLDEST PART OF THE NIGHT...SOME FLURRIES OR
BRIEF SLEET SHOWER MAY RESULT BUT NO AMOUNTS OF CONSEQUENCE DUE TO
EXPECTED VERY FAST MOVEMENT AND LIMITED LIFT OPPORTUNITY. THE
COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY AND WILL DRY RATHER ABRUPTLY WITH FEATURE
PASSAGE TO PRECLUDE DEFORMATION WRAP-AROUND CONSIDERATIONS.
ANOTHER INHIBITOR IS THE DISJOINTED PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN
BRANCH IMPULSE TO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SURFACE LOW TO DISRUPT THE
WARM CONVEYOR PROCESS INTO THE VORTICITY FEATURE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
CONSIDERATIONS. ESSENTIALLY...THIS EVENT SHOULD REMAIN A BRIEF
AESTETHIC EVENT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS REQUIRING ACTIONS TO
MITIGATE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL TO NEAR FREEZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY STRONG ARCTIC
INTRUSION INTO THE INTERIOR U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER LARGE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM
THE HUDSON`S BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY SUNDAY WITH HARD
FREEZE IMPLICATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY
STRONGER WITH THIS AIR MASS...SHOWING THE CYCLONE TO PASS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND USHERING A 1040MB HIGH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MIDDLE PLAINS STATES. 1000-500MB THICKNESS WERE
ABOUT 70-80M LOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL...WHICH EQUATES TO UPPER
TEENS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE
FLORIDA PARISHES. GIVEN A FEW MORE DAYS TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO COMPROMISE THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD MIDWAY BETWEEN THE VERY COLD ECMWF AND THE WARMER GFS.
REGARDLESS THE MODEL CHOICE...ALL STRONGLY INDICATE A FREEZE AND
HARD FREEZE SITUATION AT LEAST SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE IF NOT
HARDER. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 10K FT BY MID EVENING AND LOWER TO
AROUND 5K FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 35
&&

.MARINE...
WILL HOLD ON TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT PACKAGE IN FAR
EASTERN ZONES AS WINDS STILL REMAIN UP AROUND 17 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION HAS ENDED. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL BRING WINDS BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN ABOUT A 48
HOUR BREAK UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO ADVISORY
RANGES. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE. HAVE OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION ON WIND
GRIDS. THIS BRINGS WINDS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT IS SEEN IN GFS
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE BY SUNDAY MORNING WE WILL HAVE
WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 52 31 52 27 / 10 20 10 0
BTR 55 34 55 29 / 10 20 10 0
ASD 55 32 55 27 / 10 10 10 0
MSY 53 37 55 35 / 10 10 10 0
GPT 55 33 54 29 / 10 10 10 0
PQL 54 31 53 27 / 10 10 10 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-08-2010 07:54 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CST WED DEC 8 2010

.SHORT TERM...
RATHER COMPLEX DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS NEGATING ANY
DRAINAGE THAT WAS UNDERWAY LAST EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AT NEARLY ALL REPORTING STATIONS AND
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE COLUMN DAMPENS FROM VIRGA AND
LIGHT RAIN. UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE JUST WEST OF KSHV PER
SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGES. SENSIBLE WEATHER IS BEING
FORCED WELL SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICS WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS GREATEST ALONG FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY. THIS IS NOT THE
TYPICAL ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM CONVEYOR
PROCESS IS BEING SHUNTED AND DIRECTED AROUND MECHANICAL 1014 MB
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS COAST...CAUSING A DIFLUENCE IN
MOISTURE FLUX. GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AT LEAST ON THE 290K
SURFACE IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM REAR-FLANK
ADIABATIC PROCESSES ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE...WHERE THE
PROCESS FOR WET-BULB COOLING IS OFFSET BY LIFT /OMEGA/ UP THE
BACKSIDE OF THE ISENTROPIC LAYER. THIS IS PROBABLY MORE DETAIL
THAN WARRANTED...BUT EXPLAINS WHY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS A
WARM RAIN AS OPPOSED TO ANTICIPATED WINTER MIX. BASED ON THIS
RATIONALE...HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES FROM
FORECAST PRODUCTS...UPDATED GRAPHICS TO REMOVE SUCH MENTION. WILL
CONCEDE TO A SLIM CHANCE OF A BRIEF SLEET SHOWER OR TWO ON WEAK
DEFORMATION AT THE REAR OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRIOR TO EVENT
ENDING. IF SUCH MATERIALIZES...WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS WARRANTED. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE A RETURN TO HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL ISSUE HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNING THIS
PACKAGE...THOUGH DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PREVIOUS EVENT...ALL
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE OR QUICKLY RE-INSTATED. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HANDLING NEXT ARCTIC
AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
WEEKEND. ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CHANNELING A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH OUT OF
LOWER CANADA. THE GFS IS SIMILAR THOUGH WEAKER SURFAC HIGH AT
1041MB. DESPITE THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A
NEARLY STRAIGHT FLOW FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY COLD AND
WINDY PERIOD WITH HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNINGS LIKELY WARRANTED
ONCE AGAIN. AIR MASS MODERATION DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN UNTIL
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION
EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH
THE PRECIPITATION AREA SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KBTR AND KHUM. EXPECT
CLEARING TREND TO COMMENCE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AS A
LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. EXPECT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO ONSET AROUND SUNRISE
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE LAKES AND PROTECTED
WATERS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO CALM SIGNIFICANTLY AS LIGHT
RETURN FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING WITH TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE. WIND GRIDS AND
FORECAST PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION. LIKE BY SUNDAY MORNING WE
WILL BE SEEING WINDS WELL ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD WITH AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 24 53 30 / 30 0 0 0
BTR 52 26 56 35 / 30 0 0 0
ASD 52 27 55 29 / 30 0 0 0
MSY 51 32 54 38 / 30 0 0 0
GPT 51 26 54 31 / 30 0 0 0
PQL 49 24 54 26 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...IBERVILLE...ORLEANS...ST.
CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST. HELENA...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND
WEST FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA
TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA
TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-09-2010 06:55 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
524 AM CST THU DEC 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS/GULF
OF MEXICO IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST...AND A MORE ZONAL /WEST TO EAST/
FLOW PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS AND
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING
WARMER SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MORE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ON FRIDAY WILL START TO BUCKLE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PLAINS/ MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION ON SATURDAY.

HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING...
MAINLY OVER THE LOWER PEARL RIVER BASIN AND MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
FREEZE LINE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTION SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER IN
METRO NEW ORLEANS...AND AWAY FROM THE WARMING EFFECTS OF THE TIDAL
LAKES...BAYS AND SOUNDS. FULL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT
BE AS COLD...BUT STILL NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON SATURDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ON SATURDAY MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DRIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A
SECONDARY WEAKER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. QPF-WISE
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST GENEROUS SHOWING .25 TO .50 INCH AMOUNTS
WHILE THE 00/06Z GFS RUNS ONLY SHOW .10 INCH OR LESS DURING THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH SUPPORTS THE
COLDER GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z MEX WARMED UP QUITE
A BIT...AND NO LONGER FORECASTS THE SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. SINCE THE ECMWF IS COLDER...DECIDED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS COLDER FORECAST AND THE
NEW WARMER MEX GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS A MODERATE TO BRIEF HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORMAL COLDER AREAS. SUNDAY WILL
BE A BLUSTERY DAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN RETURNING THE CONUS. THE
SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER COLDER NIGHTS
AND DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT WILL FINALLY WARM UP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST GULF GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 12Z...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL 18Z.

EXPECT ABOUT 48 HOURS OF BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK TOWARD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FROM THE 07/00Z RUN...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF FROM 09/00Z TRIES
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW OVER TENNESSEE THAT IS DEEPER THAN THE
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MUCH MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. USED SREF FOR
WIND GRIDS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN A 50/50 GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH
TUESDAY. NO MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 00Z RUN IS FORECASTING SUSTAINED
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS...USED GFS BASED SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEA HEIGHTS
POST-FRONTAL. AFTER TUESDAY...WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS RETURN TO A
MORE BENIGN PATTERN FOR A FEW DAYS. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 52 30 60 48 / 0 10 10 10
BTR 54 35 62 51 / 0 10 10 10
ASD 53 31 63 49 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 51 39 64 52 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 53 32 62 50 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 53 28 63 44 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...IBERVILLE...ORLEANS...ST.
CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...POINTE
COUPEE...ST. HELENA...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND
WEST FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-10-2010 06:56 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
510 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC AIRMASS
EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. IT IS
ANOTHER COLD EARLY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE LAND PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE MORE ZONAL WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE BACK NORTH TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUSING SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...WITH PERIODIC FREEZING FOG
REPORTED AT BELLE CHASSE. ANY FOG/FREEZING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
TODAY WITH SOME AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST COAST STATES
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE FAST MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE LATE
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 50S...POSSIBLY UPPER 50S NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY/
CAPE...ESPECIALLY WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE
THE CAP BREAK WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOME ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY SATURDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST...AND MOST
OF THESE WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN A SEE TEXT OR 5 PERCENT CATEGORICAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IF BETTER INSTABILITY
OCCURS...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL
ROTATION AND STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GETTING HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SINCE THE AREA REMAINS IN A LONGER TERM DRY SPELL...WE WILL
HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST BRIEF PERIODS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ON LAND...AND EASILY
THAT HIGH OVER WATER. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG NVA
WILL OCCASIONALLY HELP MIX THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN IN THE 0-2 KM
LAYER. IT WILL BE SUNNY...BUT MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVIATE UP AND DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN...AND IS
BACK ON THE COLD SIDE THIS MORNING FOR LOWS...DRIVEN BY THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE
DRY AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO
WHAT WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY /THURSDAY/ MORNING WITH A HARD
FREEZE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TIDAL LAKES...AND A LIGHT FREEZE TO
THE SOUTH.

AFTER THIS NEXT COLD SNAP...THE AREA MAY FINALLY GET A LONGER
BREAK FROM THE COLD...AS BOTH 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT
HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
CHRISTMAS. THE 06Z GFS DID FLIP FROM ITS 00Z RUN...AND IT SLIDES
A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SURFACE HIGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. NO
MAJOR RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
22/TD
&&

.AVIATION
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY FOR ALL
SITES. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
GOES OUT...WITH MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE AFFECTED TO BE KHUM.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K AND
10K FEET BY EVENING...AND PLAN TO INCORPORATE THIS IN NEW TAF
PACKAGE. 35
&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO WEEKEND MARINE FORECAST AS CURRENT MODEL RUN
CONFIRMS FORECAST SOLUTION THAT WE HAVE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WITHIN
A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA...ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER WE
WILL HAVE FREQUENT ENOUGH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS TO JUSTIFY
GALE WATCH/WARNING. SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT LATE 4TH PERIOD FOR
THREAT BEGINNING...WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE A FINAL LOOK BEFORE
DECIDING ON WHICH PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED...ADVISORY OR WARNING.
EXPECT WIND ISSUES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OUT INTO THE GULF AND COULD REACH 6
TO 9 FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 60 44 65 34 / 10 10 40 60
BTR 63 49 69 40 / 10 10 30 50
ASD 62 42 67 42 / 10 10 20 60
MSY 62 47 68 43 / 10 10 20 60
GPT 61 42 64 41 / 10 10 20 70
PQL 61 38 66 43 / 10 10 20 70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-11-2010 07:31 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CONUS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN IOWA TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WERE GUSTING IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WAS AMPLIFYING AND DRIVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AM
FAVORING THE FASTER GFS MODEL WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY TO RETURN BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DEPENDENT ON BETTER DAYTIME HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 INDICATED BY THE MAV
GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BUT VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGHER UPPER
50S DEWPOINTS NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS/WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG...SO ANY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM.

REGARDING WINDS...MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...AND NEAR 50 KNOTS
AT 3000 FEET. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
OVER SOME LAND AREAS...MAINLY NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. OUR
LOCAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...OVER 25 MPH...WILL BE MET ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND EXTENDING
SOUTH TO THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM SUNDAY.

VERY COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO VALUES AT LEAST AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN EARLY THIS WINTER
SEASON...WITH LOWS NEAR 20 EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
BORDERING AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES...WITH MID 20S AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...NORTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND DOWN TO ASSUMPTION AND ST. JAMES PARISHES.
THIS COLD WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND THAT WILL SEND THE WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN TO THE TEENS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A HARD
FREEZE WATCH/FREEZE WATCH AND POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SUNNY BUT VERY COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A CLEAR AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 20 WILL LIKELY DIP FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND NORTHSHORE OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS WITH A BRIEF HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THAT ARE UNPROTECTED BY THE WARMER
LAKES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AREA...AND COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME RESOLVING SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
FEATURES MOVING THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY...BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. IT SEEMS WE CANNOT WARM UP FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE DAYS AT
A TIME BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

AVIATION
A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 15-18Z AT EVERY
TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR KGPT...WHERE LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS LATER. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER AROUND 00Z AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KMSY AND KNEW AFTER
03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
IN EFFECT AT VARIOUS TIMES. THE GALE WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER
ALL COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. WINDS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
LATE SUNDAY...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 34 47 19 / 40 60 0 0
BTR 71 36 51 23 / 30 50 0 0
ASD 68 39 51 24 / 20 70 0 0
MSY 70 41 51 29 / 20 60 0 0
GPT 67 40 51 26 / 20 70 0 0
PQL 68 42 50 23 / 10 70 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-12-2010 08:22 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
625 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
COUPLE NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR WAS STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DUE
TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LARGE DOME OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A
SPEED MAX PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LINGER
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR THE
LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE MORE PROTECTED AND INLAND AREAS...WITH
SPEEDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
TIDAL LAKES AND NEAR THE COAST. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF TODAY...AND IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER
FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND BORGNE.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE AND WIND
FORECAST. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE TIDAL
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
THE HARD FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE IBERVILLE AND ASCENSION PARISHES. AREAS TO THE SOUTH CAN
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND THE FREEZE WATCH
WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED TO THE LOWER/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PARISHES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER...MORE
INLAND SECTIONS OF THESE ZONES LIKE MONTEGUT...CUT-OFF...GALLIANO
AND MYRTLE GROVE. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EVEN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE
OF THE LAKE THAT ARE NORMALLY PROTECTED BY THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LAKE WATERS.

MONDAY...SUNNY SKIES WILL ONLY ALLOW THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE 40S. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL SETTLE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND ABOUT AS COLD AS
THE COLDEST MORNING EXPERIENCED BACK IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR. THIS
MEANS A LONG DURATION FREEZE AND MORE WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FOR SLIDELL IS FORECASTING A
HARD FREEZE /TEMPERATURES 26 OR LOWER/ FOR A DURATION ROUGHLY FROM
10 PM TO 8 AM...OR 10 HOURS! THIS IS A PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING AND/OR DEADLY SITUATION FOR
PEOPLE...PETS...PIPES AND THE MORE TROPICAL PLANTS AND TENDER
VEGETATION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS OVER THE LOWER
PEARL RIVER VALLEY AND COLDER MISSISSIPPI COAST LOCATIONS...TO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. IN METRO
NEW ORLEANS...MOST OF THE EAST BANK MAY ESCAPE THE HARD
FREEZE...BUT IT IS A CLOSE CALL. THE WEST BANK SHOULD DEFINITELY
DROP TO THE MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS MODIFYING. AFTER A VERY COLD START...THE AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT
NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS TWO.

.LONG TERM...
THE MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE AMOUNT
OF RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...BUT GENERALLY SHOW
ZONAL FLOW CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN A BUILDING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A RAINMAKER...SO EXPECT THE
MONTHLY RAINFALL DEFICIT TO GROW...IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE RECORD
WET MONTH EXPERIENCED IN MANY AREAS LAST DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...BUT
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT MSY AND NEW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11
FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND THROUGH 6 AM OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR 6 HOURS FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNINGS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 45 21 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 51 22 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 50 24 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 51 29 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 50 26 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 50 24 47 18 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
UPPER TERREBONNE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...POINTE
COUPEE...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND
WEST FELICIANA.

FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...AND LOWER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-13-2010 06:47 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CST MON DEC 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...
VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION. WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 30S...HOWEVER
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SOME SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. A HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WHERE A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST. A NUMBER OF RECORD LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE IN
JEOPARDY TUESDAY. 11

.LONG TERM...
A RAPID WARM UP WILL COMMENCE BY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW RETURNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MORE OR LESS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS BY
THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISSUES WITH SEA FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE OFFING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT SOME CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF COAST REGION. THIS IS PROGD TO RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS COLD. 11


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KNEW AND KMSY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 11

&&

.MARINE...
GALES WILL EASE TODAY INTO ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
THROUGH MID WEEK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR ADVISORY SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE GULF BY FRI CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING NW WINDS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. 17

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 42 20 50 36 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 46 23 52 43 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 45 20 52 35 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 45 27 52 43 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 46 21 51 35 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 45 18 51 34 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...AND LOWER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...POINTE
COUPEE...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-14-2010 12:35 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER VERY COOL DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE NICELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT AND QUICKLY BECOME
MORE ZONAL IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO
SOME POSSIBLE PROBLEMS WITH FOG AND SEAS FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS BACK IN THE AREA AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS THE FEATURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS FORECAST CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE THIS
NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BEHIND
IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. SOME DECKS AT 020 WILL TRY TO SNEAK IN TOWARD
12Z TOMORROW BUT NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED. 17

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO EASE UP THIS MORNING AND ALL HEADLINES
HAVE DROPPED. EXPECT TO SEE HEADLINES WED AND WED NIGHT AGAIN BUT
SHOULD NOT BE IN THE CATEGORY THAT WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY. 17


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN VERY LOW WITH SUBSEQUENTLY LOW RH LEVELS. THESE SHOULD
REBOUND SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 17

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 33 63 54 / 0 10 20 20
BTR 53 39 67 58 / 0 10 20 20
ASD 50 34 64 56 / 0 10 20 20
MSY 50 43 66 58 / 0 10 20 20
GPT 50 34 61 57 / 0 0 20 20
PQL 50 31 62 56 / 0 0 20 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...AND LOWER TERREBONNE.

HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...POINTE
COUPEE...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 12-15-2010 06:08 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 AM CST WED DEC 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING TODAY AS THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BRINGS A MUCH WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIRMASS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISSUES WITH FOG AND/OR SEA FOG TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
OBSERVED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 11

.LONG TERM...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS...HOWEVER...
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS IT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. ANOTHER
WARM UP WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 030 TODAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
AFTER DARK...CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN COVER THE AREA FROM 020-030FT.
THESE CEILINGS MAY LOWER BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 010. WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE BY ALL TERMINALS TODAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM
EAST TO SE AND SHOULD BE AROUND 15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST TO 10 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. 17

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TODAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM EAST TO
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT BEFORE EASING A BIT THURSDAY.
HEADLINES WILL TAKE AFFECT TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES RUNNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 55 72 53 / 10 10 20 30
BTR 66 58 73 55 / 10 10 20 30
ASD 64 57 72 55 / 10 10 20 30
MSY 66 57 73 57 / 10 10 20 30
GPT 62 57 72 56 / 10 10 20 30
PQL 61 55 72 57 / 10 10 20 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.