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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-16-2010 07:45 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
LOW SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS DOWN INTO EASTERN MEXICO HAS
SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICITY FEATURES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY EAST NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAS ALREADY BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE FELT MORE
SHARPLY AS THE SUN ANGLE GETS LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUD DECK OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-10...AND A MORE
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN DECK SOUTH OF I-10. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ERODES THE CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS...THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL RANGE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS STICK
AROUND LONGER...TO NEAR 70 OR THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION ACCOMPANIED BY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE WARMER NAM MET
NUMBERS AND THE GFS SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A GENERALLY QUIET PERIOD FOR WEATHER WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA ON MONDAY. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER GETTING ORGANIZED OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...STARTING TO SEE SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS IS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE...ALSO SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS.
CURRENT IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IF
NOT BEFORE...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 35
&&

.MARINE...
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUT OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE 12Z...AND WINDS SHOULD FALL
BELOW 20 KNOTS. WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 15Z BUT LEAVE EXERCISE
CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT REACHES THE GULF...WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
EVENING...JUST A QUESTION OF WHETHER IT WILL BE EXERCISE CAUTION OR
ADVISORY. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A LOOK AT IT. WINDS DROP OFF
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASE FOR A SHORT TIME THURSDAY AS COLD
AIR GETS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 38 67 46 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 64 43 70 46 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 68 42 67 50 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 70 46 66 53 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 69 44 66 51 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 72 42 67 46 / 10 0 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-17-2010 07:11 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
439 AM CST WED NOV 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT OUR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHIFTING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OZARKS REGION LATE TODAY AND
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY
TODAY WITH PLEASANTLY MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER A COOL
START. A FAST MOVING BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL MOVE
FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD LAYER FROM STRONG LIFTING WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE
TO THE SURROUNDING VERY DRY AIRMASS...SO AM KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF SPRINKLES AS THE THICKER
CLOUD BAND MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY. A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MID/NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER OUR REGION WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EACH DAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT AS IT GETS
CLOSER. 22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION THIS MORNING IS LIFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG JUST
DEVELOPED AT KHUM...SO EXPECT TEMPO 1/2SM VSBYS IN FOG WITH
INDEFINITE CIGS THROUGH 14Z. LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS...KHUM...KGPT AND PERHAPS KHSA...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCTION IN VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. 35 &&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH OVER ALABAMA HAS ALLOWED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EASE
CONSIDERABLY...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. WILL HAVE NO
HEADLINES IN TODAYS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INCREASED WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS
TIME...LOOKS TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON UPPER END. EXPECT THAT WE WILL
BE USING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ON THURSDAY. WIND AGAIN DROPS
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THAT FRONT...LEADING TO A FAIRLY QUIET
WEEKEND ON THE WATER. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 45 62 41 / 0 10 0 0
BTR 69 48 63 42 / 0 10 0 0
ASD 68 50 67 43 / 0 10 0 0
MSY 66 53 65 47 / 0 10 0 0
GPT 66 50 67 46 / 0 10 0 0
PQL 67 46 70 43 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-18-2010 06:04 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
451 AM CST THU NOV 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
EAST OF MCCOMB TO NEAR HAMMOND TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY. A NARROW BAND
OF DIMINISHING SHOWERS...MANY OF WHICH EARLIER HAD 40 TO 55 DBZ
RETURNS ON RADAR...PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE BROUGHT
MEASURABLE RAIN AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS BEEN MOVING EAST NEAR 35 MPH. WAVER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH
STRONGER JETSTREAM WINDS ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
A BELT OF 100 TO 130 KNOTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS UPPER JET WAS OFFSETTING THE MID LEVEL NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...AND HELPING THE SHOWERS PERSIST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER...THE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY END IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE JET AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST.

.SHORT TERM...
AT THE START OF THE /TODAY/ PERIOD AT 6 AM...HAVE PROJECTED THE
COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE FROM GULFPORT TO GALLIANO. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THEN...SO HAVE ONLY LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 8 AM.
AFTERWARDS...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF
WATERS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT GETS HELD
UP BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER...BUT NOT COOLER AIR...WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS WELL BELOW THE MID AFTERNOON DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES OVER AREAS OF THE NORTHSHORE EASTWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
FRIDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST AND WEAKEN OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
CLOSE LOOK AT THE FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE AND WINDS SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI. MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD EITHER MOVE INLAND OR DISSIPATE
ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AROUND
FROM NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT
HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD THEM TO THE WEATHER GRIDS AND FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.

.LONG TERM...
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...HOWEVER...THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING DRY AND RELATIVE WARM AIR THAT
WILL ACT AS A CAP. ANY MINOR LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES
MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE CONVERGENCE...AND MAY ACT TO
PRODUCE SOME NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS...HOWEVER...THE CHANCE
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

OUR NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN APPEARED TO BE
A MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER ABERRATION...AND TODAYS 00Z RUN HAS COME
IN LINE VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS RUN. IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
CORRECT THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE DRY AND RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS 55
TO 60. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT IFR VSBYS AT KHUM SHOULD IMPROVE AS WINDS AND SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THAT AREA IN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE CURRENT PREFRONTAL SMALL
BAND OF SHRA IS MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. COULD BE
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT THAT IS
LIKELY TO BE EAST OF MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS KGPT AND KHSA
BEFORE 12Z TAF PACKAGE GOES OUT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS THAT MAY GRAZE KMCB AND KBTR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z AT
MOST TERMINALS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES...ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS. 35
&&

.MARINE...
WITH UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEMS WEAKENING...FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STRETCH OUT AND WEAKEN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELDS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY COASTAL WATERS THAT GET MUCH ABOVE
15 KNOTS WILL BE THE FAR WESTERN MARINE ZONES AND WILL POST EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES THERE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SERN
CONUS AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER COASTAL WATERS...WHICH
ACTUALLY RETURNS QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DURATION AND FETCH TO
BRING SEAS INTO THE 5 FOOT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF
THIS. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 44 68 51 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 65 46 70 55 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 69 47 71 51 / 10 0 10 10
MSY 69 52 71 57 / 10 0 10 10
GPT 70 48 70 50 / 20 0 10 10
PQL 72 44 71 46 / 20 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-19-2010 06:59 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
524 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
MID/UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES. A LARGE
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...SITUATED NEARLY
DUE SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WEST AND NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LARGER
SCALE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS INVERTED TROUGH
SHOWS UP WELL IN THE 11 MINUS 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

KMOB RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER
THE ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS...AND A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
MOVE/DEVELOP WEST INTO THE WATERS SOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI AND EAST OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA COAST TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOUISIANA
WATERS AND COASTLINE AS FAR WEST AS PORT FOURCHON TONIGHT.

A SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAS WRECKED HAVOC WITH
THE SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING SOUTH OVER MOST LAND AREAS WHILE HIGHER
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS RETURN/BACKUP NORTHWARD OVER
THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. SINCE THE LOWER STRATUS DECK IS
SHALLOW...IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO LONG THIS MORNING FOR THEM TO MIX
OUT AS SOLAR INSULATION TAKES PLACE. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY START...IT WILL BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY OVER MOST
AREAS TODAY WITH THE MORE INLAND AREAS BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE
NOT STRAYED MUCH AT ALL FROM THE MAV HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECKS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DROP OFF
TO NEAR CALM...SO THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY. ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BRIEF AND QUITE ISOLATED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED THEM IN THE FORECAST
OVER AREAS NEAR BATON ROUGE AND THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER ON MONDAY.
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR...THE MODELS
ARE FARTHER NORTH/SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THAT
CHANCE IS ONLY 30 PERCENT EACH PERIOD AT THIS TIME. THE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER THAT WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL WILL BE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MORNING FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN
THE DAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO PINPOINT ACCURACY OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN 12 HOURS AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE WILL
EVENTUALLY BE A SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY LATE ON THE
HOLIDAY WITH A MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING BEFORE GETTING
SOME BREAKS. THESE BREAKS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE FILLING BACK IN AT THE MVFR LEVEL OF ABOUT OVC030. THESE
DECKS SHOULD LOWER TO ABOUT 015 BY SAT MORNING BEFORE DAYLIGHT. NO
OTHER ACTIVITY AND VIS RANGES SHOULD BE FROM 3SM+. MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST TERMINALS WILL HAVE BETTER CONDITIONS AS CLOUD MASS WILL FIND
IT A LITTLE TOUGHER TO MOVE OR DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
INVERTED TROUGH WILL GET DRAWN BACK OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ADDING A STRAY SHOWER HERE AND THERE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES TODAY
FROM NORTH TO SE. SPEEDS WILL ALSO COME DOWN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM KENTUCKY BACK INTO
OKLAHOMA TUE. THEN A NEW VERY STRONG COLD DRY AIR SURGE WILL BE
INTRODUCED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE A QUICK RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 47 73 52 / 0 10 10 0
BTR 68 51 75 56 / 0 10 10 10
ASD 70 52 74 53 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 68 55 74 58 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 69 53 73 54 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 71 50 73 52 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-20-2010 07:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING LOW CEILINGS AND
SOME DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT...PLAN TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PREVAILS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 60S BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG WILL BE THE LARGER CONCERN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING. MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL EITHER FLIRT WITH OR HAVE
PREVAILING GROUPS AT 1/4SM FG THIS MORNING. VIS WILL RECOVER SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THE FOG WILL THEN FORM CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 9AM. EXPECT A LOT OF THE SAME CONDITIONS
AGAIN TONIGHT. 17

&&

.MARINE...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MS/AL LINE SOUTHWARD INTO TO
THE GULF. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER NRN GULF WATERS EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE CURRENTLY SENDING SWELLS INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. THOSE
SWELL HAVE DECREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS NOW BACK TO THURS
NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR FROPA. IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE
COLD AND STRONG CAA LIKELY GOING TO LEAD TO SCY CONDITIONS. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 49 75 54 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 74 52 78 57 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 73 52 77 56 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 73 56 78 59 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 73 55 75 58 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 73 53 75 56 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-21-2010 07:57 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...
SLOW MOISTURE BUILD UP THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL CONTINUE. FOG
WILL BE THE NORM UNTIL WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AND MID LEVEL
CEILINGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BEFORE RAPIDLY STALLING. RETURN
FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH
CAUSES THE OLD FRONT TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A
STRONG COLD DRY AIR SURGE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH A NEW COLD
FRONT BISECTING LOUISIANA BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE COASTAL WATERS BY AFTERNOON FRI. SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WIDE VARIATION IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WAS OBSERVED AT THE
TAF SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 14 OR 15Z...HOWEVER
LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z AND THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 11

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 57 77 63 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 78 59 80 64 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 75 58 77 63 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 78 60 78 65 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 74 58 78 62 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 74 56 77 60 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-22-2010 06:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

.SHORT TERM...
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA RANGING FROM 1/2 MILE TO 3-4 MILES AND HIGHER. VAD WIND
PROFILER ON RADAR SHOWS 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING ANY WORSE. SO...AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT FOG WILL BECOME DENSE OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MERIT AN ADVISORY. DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT/TOM
MORN...COULD SEE ONE MORE FOG EVENT. RADAR HAS BEEN PICKING UP A FEW
SHOWERS FROM ALONG AND EAST OF AN ASD TO BVE LINE AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING BUT DID PUT INTO THE ZONES.

OTHERWISE...LOCAL WEATHER CONTROLLED BY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE HIGH AND THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST WONT BE ABLE TO FALL TOO
MUCH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE RACING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY
EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH FORCING THIS FAR SOUTH TO GET THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE CWA BUT MORE OR LESS REACH THE AREA AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY MOISTURE IN PLACE TUESDAY...SO A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AND MORESO IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR ST.
FRANCISVILLE AND CENTREVILLE.

A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL SWING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POST FRONTAL.
NOT EXPECTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF QPF BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY DECENT
COVERAGE AND THEREFORE LIKELY GOING TO HAVE TO INCREASE POPS.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASED ON GENERAL
FLATNESS AND POSITIVE AXIS OF TROUGH...DID TAKE A QUICK GLANCE AT
INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE REAFFIRMED THAT WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BARELY NEGATIVE LI/S...NO APPRECIABLE
CAPE...AND STRONG JET WELL TO THE NORTH WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SVR WX.

GUIDANCE COMING IN QUITE COOL ON TEMPS POST FRONTAL. DIDN/T STRAY
TOO FAR FROM MEX BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR 2 ON THE WARM SIDE. JUST NOT
SO SURE ABOUT THE AIR MASS CONSIDERING THE UPPER TROUGH DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE THAT DEEP AND EJECTS RATHER QUICKLY. SO...HOWEVER COOL
IT DOES GET IT SHOULDN/T STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL NOT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS
ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...
THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME LOW STRATUS. FOR THE MOST
PART...MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE TAF SITES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS GOING
DOWN TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR AT TIMES. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY 15 OR 16Z. MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.

11
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ACROSS THE OUTER GULF COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...PLAN TO HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE
OUTER GULF COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTH GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

11
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 64 77 59 / 10 20 40 20
BTR 81 65 82 62 / 10 20 40 20
ASD 79 64 80 59 / 20 10 20 20
MSY 78 65 80 61 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 75 65 78 60 / 20 10 20 20
PQL 78 62 79 60 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-23-2010 06:53 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2010

.SHORT TERM...
A WIDER RANGE OF CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THAN 24 HRS AGO.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A HAMMOND TO PIERRE PART LINE CONTINUE TO
DEAL WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF 20 KT WINDS
AT 1KFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAKING IT A TOUGHER TIME FOR VERY
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. EXCEPT FOR PQL WHICH HAD BEEN SITTING AT 1/4
MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN AROUND A MILE OR 2 TO SEVERAL MILES. MOST FOG WILL DISSIPATE
VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LOCATIONS WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE IS SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS
ROLL THROUGH. NOT A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AREAS GETTING
RAIN AND THE ONES NOT. THE WHOLE LA/MS GULF COAST IN A VERY MOISTURE
RICH REGIME. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE LIKELY DO TO
A FEW THINGS. SFC OBS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO
THE EAST WITH MID 60 TD/S COMMON COMPARED TO NEAR 70 FROM BTR AND
WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
MIDLEVEL AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW. COVERAGE SHOULDN/T CHANGE A
WHOLE LOT TODAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WITH TODAYS ACTIVITY THE RESULT OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL TO
THE NORTH...WILL BE A WANE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES BEFORE GETTING HERE. DROPPED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ON
WED AND WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS TO CONTEND WITH.

NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY FCST. ECMWF AND NAM
COMING IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN GFS. FCST IS MAINLY WITH
THE GFS AS ITS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. RAINFALL
WITH THIS FRONT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING EXCESSIVE. MAYBE A
HALF TO ONE INCH IS SOME LOCATIONS.

LOOKING AT TEMPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COLD AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. NEAR FREEZING TEMPS LOOK TO BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SWRN MISSISSIPPI AND HIGHS FRI/SAT
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH VERY QUICKLY EJECTS AND SERLY FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY. GFS
SUGGESTS A PLUME OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND BY THEN BUT
SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.

QUITE A BIT OF DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS
SUGGESTS A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTER WITH NEXT FRONT ALREADY HERE
MONDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM VLIFR TO VFR. IN GENERAL...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
SUNRISE...PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF LOW CEILINGS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
FOG WILL ALSO IMPACT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY 17 OR 18Z. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL RETURN AGAIN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEING THE
RULE ONCE AGAIN. 11
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY SATURDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 77 60 78 62 / 60 20 10 20
BTR 82 61 80 63 / 50 20 10 20
ASD 80 61 79 63 / 30 20 10 20
MSY 80 63 78 64 / 30 10 10 20
GPT 78 61 76 63 / 20 20 10 20
PQL 79 62 79 63 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-24-2010 06:39 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG ALONG ALL COASTAL
PARISHES/COUNTIES. SURFACE AND JUST OFF THE SFC WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA EVEN LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS LOOK TO
HAVE NO CHOICE BUT PRODUCE FOG. SINCE IT APPEARS TO MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASED
TRAVELERS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND PUT OUT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR ALL AREAS ALONG THE COAST. ONCE FOG LIFTS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. STAYED
RIGHT AT GUIDANCE WITH A TWEAK HERE AND THERE. ITS NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES TO HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2 TODAY BUT SEEMS
TOO LOW TO HAVE A MENTIONABLE POP. VERY WARM LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEK. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOST RAIN POST FRONTAL.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE MAJORITY
STRATIFORM. GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
DIDN/T COMPLETELY GO FOR IT BUT DID DROP LOWS A FEW DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. ATTM...FREEZING LINE LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 12. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
NOT LEAVE THINGS QUIET FOR LONG. GULF MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. ECMWF HAS COME
AROUND TO GFS SOLUTION ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE
COMING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WERE BEING OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO. THE DENSEST
FOG WAS LOCATED ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 14Z WHETHER DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND THEN TO VFR BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE HIGHER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN LESS
FOG...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS AS A RESULT OF STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE A
PROBLEM. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. 11

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE EASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 63 78 45 / 10 10 20 70
BTR 80 65 80 47 / 10 10 20 70
ASD 79 65 79 52 / 10 10 20 70
MSY 78 67 79 52 / 10 10 20 70
GPT 76 65 76 53 / 10 10 20 70
PQL 79 62 77 57 / 0 10 20 70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-25-2010 07:05 AM

Going to get to wear shorts and golf shirt to BBQ the bird today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...
MORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE KEEPING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
OUT OF THE PICTURE THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART BUT PATCHY FOG
STILL VERY POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE. STILL HAVING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY...COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT NOT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRETCH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY GOING
TO SEND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM TEXAS TO OHIO DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTH ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA BY 12Z FRI. MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWERS AND ISO TSRMS WILL BE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
EXPECT CLEARING TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS. GUIDANCE STILL COMING IN QUITE COLD FOR SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS AS COLD AIR MASS FILTERS IN. COULD SEE FREEZING LINE
DOWN TO INTERSTATE 12. TEMPS WILL REBOUND FROM NEAR 60 ON SATURDAY
TO MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY AS VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL NOT ALLOW
COLD AIR TO STAY IN PLACE TOO LONG. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH RAIN
CHANCES COMING BACK BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. SCENARIO WILL BE MUCH
THE SAME AS CURRENT WITH COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP GUIDANCE HOWEVER LOOKS
TO BE QUITE TOO WARM WITH THIS SECOND FRONT. 1000-500MB HTS ARE
CLOSING IN ON 540DM WHICH IS EVEN COLDER THAN THE FRONT TONIGHT
SHOULD BE. SO..HAVE UNDERCUT MEX BY QUITE A BIT AND BASICALLY USED
FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS AS WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE NOT FORMING NEARLY AS LOW AND WIDESPREAD AS
EARLIER FORECAST. CIGS ARE IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE...AND WILL ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
SUNRISE...BUT NOT PREVAILING CEILINGS. 4-6NM VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
BR...HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND AND LOW LEVEL MIXING
TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERY LOW CIGS OR VSBYS. ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON THANKSGIVING WILL CAUSE THE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING...THEN LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN AGAIN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THANKSGIVING EVENING AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS THIS
PACKAGE...AS THE RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PREVAIL INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE EASING OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY THRU
EARLY TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS LIKELY RIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 45 53 29 / 30 90 20 0
BTR 82 47 54 31 / 30 100 20 0
ASD 81 51 58 31 / 30 90 30 0
MSY 80 54 58 39 / 20 90 30 0
GPT 77 54 59 32 / 30 80 40 0
PQL 79 57 60 31 / 30 80 40 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.