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New Orleans Local Weather thread - Joe-Nathan - 10-20-2010 07:29 AM

Enjoy the rain Mac.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-20-2010 07:34 AM

Joe-Nathan Wrote:Enjoy the rain Mac.

Only about a quarter of an inch so far, but, every little bit helps.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 10-20-2010 09:41 AM

Odd looking orange-greenish sky this morning. Then it started drizzling.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-21-2010 06:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD BE A SHORT RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS
BEFORE AN OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS A CONSIDERABLE PERIOD OF
RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND GOING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC MARITIME AIRMASS WITH SOME CONTINENTAL
MODIFICATION IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH COOLING TO SATURATION OVER
THE RECENTLY WET GROUND TO PRODUCE SOME FOG THIS MORNING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
FLOW INTO TROUGHING FROM APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW DYNAMICS EJECTING
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ON THE
MOVE WITH ENOUGH SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW TO NUDGE IT ALONG FOR
ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN GULF STATES BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD OPEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF AND BRING A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ACTIVATE UNDER OMEGA FEATURES
EMANATING WITHIN THE FLOW FROM THE CUT-OFF CIRCULATION.
MEANWHILE...T.D. 19 /AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM RICHARD LATER
TODAY/ IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS
SUGGEST REMNANT CIRCULATION ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
COULD BECOME INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL INTERACTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING IN REGARDS
TO FUTURE TRACK OF TD 19 /RICHARD?/ BEYOND 120 HOURS. MODELS ALSO
ARE LATCHING ON TO DEEPER TROUGHING BY LATE NEXT WEEK TO BRING A
PROSPECT OF FIRST FROST TO THE GULF STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL
PERFORMANCE UNCERTAINTIES ARE RATHER HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO
WILL WAIT TO SEE RUN-TO-RUN BEHAVIOR BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS NOTION
BUT IT DOES FALL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED ONLY A HAND FULL OF FIRST FREEZES OCCURRED PRIOR TO NOV 1
THIS FAR SOUTH. MCCOMB RECORDED ITS EARLIEST FREEZE ON OCT 19 1989
WITH A FEW MORE YEARS CLOSER TO OCTOBER 30TH. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...MOST LIKELY AT
KHUM...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. 35

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHAT EFFECT TD 19 WILL HAVE ON WINDS AND SEAS BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 85 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 84 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 84 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 82 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-22-2010 05:31 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND TRANQUIL MORNING WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF
MILD WEATHER BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE INCLEMENT PATTERN.
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AS JET STREAK
PUNCHES THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH FROM UPPER MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. A LARGE CONVEYOR OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS N TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE STARTS IN MORE ERNEST LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF ADVECTIVE FOG DEVELOPING WITH
SHARP DEW POINT INCREASES ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MARITIME SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN SCATTERED
COVERAGE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AXIS ALIGNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EN ROUTE TO BETTER DYNAMICS IN MID AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 8 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE ON A LITTLE MORE WET SIDE AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AND SURFACE FLOW PRETTY MUCH REMAINS ONSHORE
ORIENTED TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TRIGGERED ON UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIPPLING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONES
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TO PROVIDE THE BEST FOCUS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
ADVANCING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS LONG
WAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY. MODELS INDICATING A RATHER COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION THAT MAY RETURN
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ABOUND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE PLUS 8 TO 13 DEGREE ANOMALY RANGE
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT KHUM WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z...AND LOCAL MVFR VSBYS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD IMPROVE BY THAT TIME AS WELL. 35
&&

.MARINE...
FOR THE WEEKEND...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST DEPENDENT ON WHAT...IF ANY...EFFECT TS RICHARD HAS ON THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT GFS SOLUTION SHOWS LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS...OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME SWELL BY MID OR LATE WEEK.
35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 55 84 63 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 85 58 84 63 / 0 0 10 10
ASD 83 59 83 64 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 83 63 83 66 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 84 59 83 64 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 83 57 83 63 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-23-2010 05:30 AM

Dense Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA440 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010...DENSE FOG FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING....NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TOCOOL TO THE POINT OF SATURATION...AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMEDACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE FOGIS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THROUGHSUNRISE...THEN GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.LAZ036>040-049-050-056>070-MSZ069>071-077-080-231400-/O.NEW.KLIX.FG.Y.0018.101023T0940Z-101023T1400Z/EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HAN****-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGAL​USA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...GONZALES...DONA​LDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...​THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN..​.PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD440 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A DENSEFOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.SURFACE REPORTS...SATELLITE...AND VIDEO CAMERAS INDICATED PATCHYDENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTLOUISIANA...NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AREAS OF FOG WEREALSO OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND AREASSOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD THROUGHSUNRISE...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BEREDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN... USEYOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OFYOU.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-23-2010 05:44 AM

..
Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
533 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS IS
STILL HOLDING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MODIFICATION
IS OCCURRING OVER THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE
AREAS INDICATED BY A SLIGHT RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WATER
VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A PHASING UPPER TROUGH FROM A LOW OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST MEXICO.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHSHORE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FROM HAMMOND TO SLIDELL AND HAN**** COUNTY.
SATELLITE INDICATES THE VERY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTEND WEST INTO
LIVINGSTON PARISH AND NORTH TO NEAR MCCOMB AND FRANKLINTON.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS AROUND NEW ORLEANS AND HOUMA
INDICATE THE FOG IS LESS DENSE OVER MOST OF METRO NEW
ORLEANS...BUT WAS GETTING DENSE AROUND AREAS OF THE WEST BANK
TOWARDS HOUMA. GIVEN SOME ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE...AM EXPECTING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT METRO BATON
ROUGE AND METRO GULFPORT-BILOXI TO PASCAGOULA. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WHICH IS VALID THROUGH 9 AM.

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY DURING THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS TO INCREASE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THE
SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. THE FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BE DUE TO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY HIGHER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING
THE MUGGY AIR BACK TO THE AREA.

THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET WILL BECOME POSITIONED FROM THE COAST OF
TEXAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF U.S.
STATES. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP DEEPEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE PVA WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THAT AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 10. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF A FEW
TORNADOES AS WELL...MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER
JET STREAM WILL LIFT A BIT NORTH WITH MORE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER
THE GULF COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK POTENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
MODEST RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
NEXT SATURDAY. 22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KASD...KMCB...AND AGAIN AT KHUM THIS
MORNING...AND LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL START
LOWERING FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS
BELOW VFR LIMITS PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. 35 &&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD...ALLOWING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
TODAY...AROUND 15 KTS...BUT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY BY NIGHTFALL. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DEPENDENT ON
WHAT...IF ANY...EFFECT TS RICHARD HAS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR COASTAL WATERS...OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY SOME SWELL BY MID OR LATE WEEK. OF MORE IMPORT WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 63 83 66 / 0 10 40 60
BTR 85 64 85 68 / 0 10 40 50
ASD 83 65 84 69 / 0 10 40 60
MSY 84 68 84 70 / 0 10 40 50
GPT 83 65 83 68 / 0 10 40 60
PQL 83 63 83 68 / 0 10 30 60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST
FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST.
JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...AND WALTHALL.




New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-24-2010 04:30 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NEGLIGIBLE.
QUITE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 63
HERE IN SLIDELL TO 77 AT GULFPORT. MOST DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
TEXAS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ENE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH AXIS
MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 TO -6.
THERE IS SOME CAPPING AROUND 600 MB WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT
EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. THERE IS NOT AN
OVERABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...SO EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO REMAIN ON
THE SCATTERED SIDE. GFS SHOWING CAPES AROUND 1500...NAM AROUND
2500. SPC OUTLOOKING SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
HELICITIES MAY BRIEFLY BE FAVORABLE FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT...DRYING WILL OCCUR
UNTIL LATE TUESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEATHER
WILL TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND MOISTENING TO PRODUCE
SOME MOSTLY LIGHT FOG AND SOME LOW CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KASD...KHSA...AND KMCB...BUTCANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CONDITIONS AT KHUM AS WELL. THIS SHOULDBE SHORT LIVED AS INCREASED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD MIX OUT THE LOWERCLOUDS AND FOG BETWEEN 12-14Z. OTHERWISE...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME BKN TO OVC THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE WILL ALSO BE TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
ISOLATED SHRA THROUGH THE MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
TODAY...AM EXPECTING SOME TSRA TO DEVELOP...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY AS A PREVAILING OR TEMPO CONDITION. HAVE
CARRIED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATER FORECASTS
WILL FINE TUNE THE TIMING IN A TEMPO GROUP IF NECESSARY. LOWER MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AFTER 02-04Z THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A KMCB-KNEW-KBVE LINE
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z MONDAY. 22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
10 METER SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LAST
EVENING...BUT HAVE FALLEN BACK TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEAS 4 TO 5
FEET OFFSHORE...BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 17 KNOTS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASING BACK CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 22/TD
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF RAIN
ON THE
HORIZON. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN MOST
AREAS...MAINLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH AMOUNTS...BEFORE 3
OR 4 MORE DRY DAYS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 66 86 69 / 40 40 10 10
BTR 87 69 87 71 / 30 30 10 10
ASD 84 69 85 69 / 50 40 10 10
MSY 84 71 85 72 / 50 30 10 10
GPT 83 69 85 70 / 50 50 20 10
PQL 83 69 84 69 / 40 50 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-25-2010 06:12 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
610 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

.UPDATE...
BRIEF UPDATE TO REINTRODUCE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO FIRST
PERIOD OF FORECAST. STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MORGAN CITY.
AXIS OF UPPER TROF APPEARS TO BE STILL WEST OF AREA AND CANNOT
DISCOUNT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. 35
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...TRIGGERING
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. SEEING SOME BRIEF REPORTS OF DENSE FOG...BUT AT LEAST AT THE
CURRENT TIME...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION IN ZONES OR WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RUNNING BETWEEN 70 AND
75 WITH A NEAR SATURATION AIRMASS.

SHORT TERM...
ARKANSAS IMPULSE SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY TODAY...TAKING CONVECTION
WITH IT. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
AREA BY 12Z...AND WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A REPEAT OF THIS MORNINGS FOG TONIGHT...WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN ZONES FOR NOW...BUT WILL BRIEF DAY SHIFT OF CONCERN.

STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL BRING A FRONT CLOSE TO THE AREA. IT
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO NOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION AND WILL KEEP THE LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY. AS
BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...POPS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE AS BEST FORCING
REMAINS NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 35

LONG TERM...
AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS...HOWEVER...WILL ONLY COOL US DOWN TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 35

AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE COMMON
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z...THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS 03Z.
22/TD

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEFORE EASING BACK CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 22/TD

FIRE WEATHER...
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WAS
LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME DRY FUELS
IN MOST AREAS...AND ONE GOOD DAY OF SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FUELS TO
THEIR PREVIOUS STATE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE A DRIER REGIME RETURNS. NO LONG TERM RELIEF TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS APPARENT AS OF THIS TIME. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 72 85 71 / 20 10 20 30
BTR 87 72 87 72 / 10 10 20 20
ASD 84 72 84 71 / 20 10 20 20
MSY 84 73 85 72 / 20 10 20 20
GPT 84 72 83 72 / 20 10 20 20
PQL 85 72 85 69 / 20 10 20 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-26-2010 05:08 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABOUT
A 6 MB GRADIENT FROM THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SUSTAINED
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT ARE ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS THAT ARE SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. THESE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW OUR LOCAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH
DRIVING CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND
EAST-WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND A FEW RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED.

.LONG TERM...
BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

A STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE A FULL
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR HALLOWEEN...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...NEAR
80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR STILL IN
PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. BY TRICK-OR-TREAT
TIME...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BOTH BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED SEVERAL TIMES AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM.



&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING...AND WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT BR AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST AREA. WINDS
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AT SOME OF THE
OBSERVATION POINTS...HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN NEAR 20 KNOTS AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...AND HIGHER ON THE RIGS WHERE SOME OF THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS 18-21 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI
SOUND. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS UNTIL 4 PM TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKS OFF...HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
CALMER CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 69 87 62 / 20 20 30 20
BTR 87 71 89 67 / 20 20 30 30
ASD 86 72 86 65 / 20 20 40 30
MSY 87 72 87 68 / 20 20 40 30
GPT 84 72 84 66 / 20 20 40 30
PQL 85 70 85 65 / 20 20 30 30

[COLOR="red"].FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHERLY
WINDS OF NEAR 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
VERY DRY AIR AND STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS. A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STATES OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.[/COLOR]



&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.

MS...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.