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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-13-2006 06:26 AM

00
Fxus64 Klix 100805
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
305 Am Cdt Mon Jul 10 2006

.discussion...

An Unsettled Weather Pattern Will Remain In Place Today Across
Southeast Louisiana And Southern Mississippi...as Deep Tropical
Moisture And A Weak Vort Max Interact With Each Other. In The Low
To Mid Levels Of The Atmosphere...a Deep Southerly And
Southwesterly Flow Off The Gulf Of Mexico Will Remain In
Place. 850-500 Mb Moisture Will Be Running High Through The
Day...with A Decent Theta E Ridge Extending Over The Western
Zones. At The Same Time...a Northerly Flow In The Upper Levels
Will Continue As A Strong Upper Level Ridge Remains Centered Over
The Plains States. Weak Vort Lobes Rotating Around The Ridge Axis
And The Upper Level Low In The Northeast Will Slip Through The
Region. One Such Vort Max Will Rotate Through This
Afternoon...allowing For Some Slightly Enhanced Lift...and Thus A
Better Chance Of Convective Development. Have Gone With Likely
Pops Over The Western Zones...especially The Baton Rouge Region
Due To The Depth Of The Moisture In The Region And The Vort Max
Slipping Through. As A Result...temperatures Should Only Rise Into
The Upper 80s And Lower 90s Across The Northern And Western Zones
This Afternoon. The Moisture Tapers Off Quickly As You Proceed
Eastward Over The Cwa With Mid Level Rh Values Only Running In The
40% Range Over The Mississippi. This Would Support Only Isolated
To Low End Chance Pops In This Region...even With The Enhanced
Lift Of The Vort Max Rolling Through. This Trend Will Continue On
Tuesday...with A Bit Less Moisture To Work With...as The Mid Level
Flow Turns More Off The Mexican Plateau...allowing Some Drier Air
To Work In.

As We Go Into The Middle And End Of The Work Week...the Upper Level
Ridge Will Become More Centered Over The Region And The Mid-level
To Low Level Ridge Over The Eastern Gulf Will Build Westward Into
The Central Gulf Of Mexico. As A Result...stronger Subsidence And
A Drier Airmass Will Develop Across The Region. This Will Inhibit
Most Convective Development...with Most Convection Occurring Along
Localized Forcing Mechanisms Such As Sea Breeze Boundaries And
Remnant Outflows. Convection Will Only Occur Where The Convective
Temperature Is Reached As Mid-upper Level Forcing Will Be Limited.
Temperatures Will Rise Into The Lower To Middle 90s Over This
Period As Well...due To Less Cloud Cover In The Region...and
Somewhat Lower Humidities.

By The Weekend...another Pattern Change Will Take Place As A
Short Wave Trough Flattens The Upper Level Ridge And Drives A Weak
Frontal Boundary Into The Gulf Coast Region. This Front Should
Stall To The North Of The Cwa...but Still Provide Enough Just
Enough Low To Mid Level Lift To Increase Rain Chances For The
Weekend Into Early Next Week. Have Only Went With Low End Chance
Pops...as Exact Placement Of Front Is Uncertain...as Some Upper
Level Subsidence Remains Over The Region. However...low Level
Moisture Should Stream Back Into The Area...as A Weak Tropical
Wave Slides Through The Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend And Into
Mexico And Texas Early Next Week. This Low Level Moisture Should
Be Deep Enough To Counteract The Subsidence In The Upper Levels To
Promote Some Convection In The Vicinity Of The Front. Temperatures
Will Be Near Normal Over The Weekend Into Ear


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-14-2006 05:34 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 140804
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...

A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WHERE AN
INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ENHANCED OMEGA VALUES AND THUS HIGHER LIFT POTENTIAL TODAY ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN ON THE BACK OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS AND BATON ROUGE AREAS.

THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW DUE TO THIS. SHOULD STILL FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME ENHANCED LIFT
AND A BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATE IN THE REGION. HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOWERED TO LOW END CHANCE FOR
MISSISSIPPI ZONES. GOING INTO SUNDAY...SOME WEAK NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP A CAP ON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. ALSO...MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO TEXAS...WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT GREATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THINKING HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEING CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS OPPOSED TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WEAK IMPULSES OF
ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE TIMING OF THESE WEAK VORT MAXES IS HARD TO
DETERMINE...AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY FORCED AND OCCUR NEAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES SUCH
AS SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SINCE NO REAL LOW
LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES. IN ANY EVENT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE A BIT WETTER
AND COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-15-2006 06:29 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 150847
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
347 Am Cdt Sat Jul 15 2006

.discussion...
This Am...in The Lower Levels...high Over The Atlantic Yielding Se
Flow Over The Nc Gulf Coast Will Be Nudged Over By An Approaching
Weak Low Pressure Trough That Will Sink Out Of Ny Into The Atlantic
With Some Lower Pressures Retrograding Wsw-ward Back Over Our Area.
This Will Change Our Flow To Sw/w. This Feature Will Remain
Present Through Mid Week Before Diminishing And Returning Back To
Se Flow Again.

In The Upper Levels...this Am...main Upper High Over Four Corners
Region. Will Be Looking At Disturbances Coming Around The N Side
Of This High Through Late Mon Into Tue. Then We Begin To See The
Upper High Flatten And Begin To Center Over The Middle Part Of The
U.s. This Will Put The Se La/s Ms Area Into An Erly Flow Regime
And Continued Disturbances For The Remainder Of The Week.

With This Said Pops Isolated To Scattered Pops Will Remain In The
Forecast Through The 7 Days With Only Minor Warming In
Temperatures.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-16-2006 07:54 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 160834
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
334 Am Cdt Sun Jul 16 2006

.discussion...
For Today...approaching Surface Trough Will Continue To Sink
Toward The Area As Main Associated Low Has Moved Off The E Coast
And Over The W Atlantic. This Trough Along With The Interaction Of
Afternoon Heating And Summertime Sea Breezes Will Be Our Focus
Today As In The Upper Levels A Disturbance Will Move Swwd Into The
Area From Ms/al Rotating Around Main Upper High Still Over 4
Corners Region. Depending On Heating Before Activity Starts Today
Could See Some Isolated Strong Thunderstorms This Afternoon Into
The Evening Hours.

For Mon...high Pressure Begins To Build Back Over The Atlantic
And Tries To Build Back Over The Gulf. Will See Trough Begin To
Decay As The Main Low Pulls Further Away...but Still Some
Instability Due To Decayed Trough. Another Round Of Upper
Disturbances Again Expected Around Se Side Of Upper High.

Tue Into Wed...will Transition Us From Ne Flow To Erly Flow In
The Upper Levels With Continued Disturbances. This Will Happen As
The Upper High Flattens Out Across The Mid U.s. However...now We
See What Was Left Of Surface Trough Basically Gone And Se/srly
Flow Opening Up Again Over The Nc Gulf From The Atlantic High
Allowing More Moisture To Be Pumped Into The Region.

As We Approach Next Weekend...an Upper Trough Digs Across The Nc
Us Allowing For A Split Flow Over The U.s...with High Pressure
Stacked Over The Ern Gulf Allowing For More Srly Flow And Moisture
Over The Region.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 94 71 94 72 / 40 20 30 30
Btr 94 74 94 75 / 40 20 30 30
Msy 92 77 92 77 / 40 20 50 30
Gpt 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-17-2006 06:54 AM

00
Fxus64 Klix 170918
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
418 Am Cdt Mon Jul 17 2006

.discussion...
For Today...high Pressure Begins To Build Back Over The Atlantic
And Tries To Build Back Over The Gulf. Will See Trough Over The
Nrn Gulf Coast Begin To Decay As The Main Low Pulls Further
Away...but Still Some Instability Due To Decayed Trough. Another
Round Of Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Today Into Tonight As An
Upper Low Disturbance Again Expected Around Se Side Of Main Upper
High.

Not Much Change In The Model Trends For Mid Week...still
Transitioning Us From Ne Flow To Erly Flow In The Upper Levels
With Continued Disturbances. This Will Happen As The Upper High
Flattens Out Across The Mid U.s. However...now We See What Was
Left Of Surface Trough Basically Gone And Se/srly Flow Opening Up
Again Over The Nc Gulf From The Atlantic High Allowing More
Moisture To Be Pumped Into The Region. Will Remain A Semi-wet
Scenerio Through The Week.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-18-2006 07:11 AM

Ix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
414 Am Cdt Tue Jul 18 2006

.discussion...
This Am...se Low Level Flow Beginning To Set Up Over The Area Via
The Atlantic Ridge. Will Have A Couple Of Weak Vort Maxes Rotating
Around The Se Side Upper Ridge As It Begins Its Transition Phase
To Flatten Out Changing From A Ne Flow To Ene/e Flow Over The Area
Later Today Into Thu. Will Still Keep Scattered Pops In For Today
With Expecting Best Coverage S Shore On Into The Coastal Waters.
Some Of The Activity Could Continue Into The Evening.

Not Much Change Through The Forecast Period Except That With Srly
Flow In The Mix Adding More Moisture And Marine Influences Will
See Continued Chances For Thunderstorms Through The Week And
Moderating Influences On Temps/but Only Ever So Slightly. By The
End Of The Weekend To The Beginning Of Next Week...a Frontal
System Pushes Close To The Region And Stalls Out Keeping A
Focusing Mechanism For Ever More Actiivity.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-19-2006 08:33 AM

Orecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
414 Am Cdt Tue Jul 18 2006

.discussion...
This Am...se Low Level Flow Beginning To Set Up Over The Area Via
The Atlantic Ridge. Will Have A Couple Of Weak Vort Maxes Rotating
Around The Se Side Upper Ridge As It Begins Its Transition Phase
To Flatten Out Changing From A Ne Flow To Ene/e Flow Over The Area
Later Today Into Thu. Will Still Keep Scattered Pops In For Today
With Expecting Best Coverage S Shore On Into The Coastal Waters.
Some Of The Activity Could Continue Into The Evening.

Not Much Change Through The Forecast Period Except That With Srly
Flow In The Mix Adding More Moisture And Marine Influences Will
See Continued Chances For Thunderstorms Through The Week And
Moderating Influences On Temps/but Only Ever So Slightly. By The
End Of The Weekend To The Beginning Of Next Week...a Frontal
System Pushes Close To The Region And Stalls Out Keeping A
Focusing Mechanism For Ever More Actiivity.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-20-2006 08:35 AM

00
Fxus64 Klix 200930
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
430 Am Cdt Thu Jul 20 2006

.discussion...
The Advertised Changes To The Main Weather Pattern Is Still
Expected With The Large Expansive Upper Ridge Breaking Down Friday
Into The Weekend As A Rather Deep Trough For July Sets Up Over The
Eastern Conus. The Models Have Strengthened The Trough A Bit Over
The Last Couple Runs. For Today Through Friday...the Mid/upper
Ridge Will Remain North Of The Gulf Coast And Continue To Steer
Minor Disturbances Westward Across The Central Gulf Coast. Have
Generally Gone With The Gfs And Will Carry Low End Chance Pops For
Afternoon Hours Today And Friday. Like The Last Few Days...an
Isolated Strong To Severe Storm Cannot Be Ruled Out.

The Upper Ridge Will Finishing Eroding Over Our Area On Saturday
As The Upper Trough Helps Drive A Weak Cold Front Into The
Forecast Area. This Frontal Boundary Is Likely To Stall Over South
Ms And Adjacent Southeast La Parishes Sunday Into Early Monday
Then The Boundary Should Lift North Of The Area By Late Monday.
Have Continued Previous Forecast Trends Of Higher Pops Saturday
Into Sunday. There Could Be Some Strong To Locally Severe Storms
Near The Surface Front And Any Associated Outflow Boundaries That
Develop In Advance Of The Front.

Next Week...a Bermuda Ridge Pattern Should Become Well
Established. The Gfs Shows A Flux Of Decent Tropical Moisture
Which Should Maintain Higher Than Normal Precipitable Water And
Near To Above Normal Rain Chances.

&&

.aviation...
There Will Be Some Visibilities Down In The 4 To 6 Mile Range In
Haze Through Mid Morning...otherwise...generally Vfr Weather Can
Be Expected Today. With Thunderstorm Probabilities At 30 Percent
This Afternoon...thunderstorms Are More Likely To Be In The
Vicinity Or Greater Than 10 Miles From The Airports Rather Than
Within 5 Miles. The Land Breeze At Gpt Should Reverse To A Sea
Breeze In The 16-17z Time Frame. Msy Should See The Lake Breeze
Persist Most Of The Day...possibly Reversing To The South In The
22-23z Time Frame.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-24-2006 08:49 AM

Fxus64 Klix 240757
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
257 Am Cdt Mon Jul 24 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning The Frontal Boundary Stretched Across Central
Louisiana To Central Mississippi...just North Of Our Pcwa. An
Upper-level Shortwave Was Over Arkansas...with The Main Trough
Pulling Off The Northeast Coast. The Front Should Drift North And
Weaken Today As The Shortwave Slowly Progresses Eastward. Precip
Water Values Should Remain Above 2 Inches Today. Thus We Should
Have Decent Coverage Of Showers/thunderstorms Across Most Of The
Area. The Next Concern Will Be The Tropical Disturbance Around The
Bay Of Campeche. Both The Gfs And Nam Show Some Development With
This Area Of Convection But Differ On Its Movement. Both Bring It
Into Texas...with The Name Farther West And The Gfs Closer To The
Louisiana State Line. Either Way...our Area Should Remain In Deep
Tropical Flow Through Much Of The Week. If It Progresses Farther
East...we Could See More Convection For The Middle Part Of The
Week. An Upper-level Ridge Will Spread Across The Area The Latter
Half Of The Week...helping To Lessen The Chances For Precip A
Little Bit.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-25-2006 09:03 AM

Ea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
305 Am Cdt Tue Jul 25 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning There Was Deep Tropical Moisture Continuing To
Pump Into The Lower Mississippi Valley. Precip Water Values Should
Remain At Or Above 2 Inches Again Today. This Will Lead To Another
Day Of Scattered To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms For Our
Pcwa. The Area Of Disturbed Weather Over The Western Gulf Of
Mexico Should Continue To Drift Northward. Currently The Nam Shows
The Area Becoming Better Organized And Moving Into Central
Texas...whereas The Gfs Shows Less Organization And Spreads More
Convection Toward Our Area On Wednesday. After This System Moves
Inland...an Upper-level Ridge Will Build Across The Lower
Mississippi Valley On Thursday And Friday. This Will Lead To
Precip Chances Lowering Somewhat For The Latter Part Of The Week.

&&