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New Orleans Local Weather thread - David70094 - 07-03-2010 08:34 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 031259
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
759 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

.UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST
CONTINUES TO BACK INTO OUR CWA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS DOWN
TO 1.61 INCHES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY BUT MAINLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND OUT OF THE NORTH ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010/

SYNOPSIS...
REFER TO MARINE SECTION FOR THE DETAILS OF THE WEAK NON-TROPICAL
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS MAIN IMPACTS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY RELATED TO INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS OFFSHORE AND
A PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS REALLY BACKED IN FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AND WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS DRIER
AIR IS ALSO EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGING WEST OVER MUCH OF GEORGIA INTO ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE MOTION OF CLOUDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW HAS
BROKEN OFF FROM A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT PUSHED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WELL DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS
ANALYZED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A
GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THEN THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DIVERGENCE FROM BOTH THE CONVENTIONAL MODELS
AND THE VARIOUS TROPICAL MODELS. DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO
MODEL RUN ALSO SHOW THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM TRADING OFF THEIR SOLUTIONS
OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVING SAID THAT...HAVE TRIED TO MODEL
THE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING HPC PROGS. SHORT TERM TRENDS DESCRIBED IN THE SYNOPSIS
SUGGEST THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST. HELD ONTO LOWER CHANCE POP TODAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME NEAR SHORE AREAS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY...HAVE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE POPS WITH
HIGHER POPS NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER POPS OVER INLAND SECTIONS TO
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO COME INTO PLAY FOR ALL OF
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK OF THE CURRENT
LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF...AND ANY FUTURE POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THAT THE MODELS ADVERTISE MOVING FROM THE
YUCATAN AREA INTO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE WEST GULF MOSTLY DURING
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WILL HAVE A HUGE
INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR ANY SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. TAKING ALL THIS INTO ACCOUNT...AM JUST FORECASTING FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. 22/TD

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC
AND MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED
-SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT KMSY/KNEW/KHUM THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED
VCTS IN THESE TAFS THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH CBS INTO THE AFTN.
KASD/KHSA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY BUT HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH IN THESE TAFS LATER THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW ARE PULLING IN DRIER AIR
FROM THE EAST. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
-SHRA/-TSRA FROM KMSY SOUTH. OVER THE NORTH KBTR/KMCB/KGPT WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
SCATTERED CU EXPECTED WITH EAST WINDS 5-15 KTS THIS AFTN. PATCHY
MVFR GROUND FOG IS LIKELY AT KMCB THROUGH 14Z TODAY AND SUNDAY.

87/MM

MARINE...
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF PENSACOLA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST ONTO THE SE LA OR SRN MS
COASTLINE SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE 06Z GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH TRACK
FURTHER WEST TOWARD SW LA OR THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE IS A DISTINCT
LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW...AND NHC ONLY GIVES THE SYSTEM A 10
PCT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF THAT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
BECAUSE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE POSTED AN SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS
AND SEAS TO CLIMB TO 4-6 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY TONIGHT.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.5-1.0 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. TIDE LEVELS MAY
CLIMB ANOTHER HALF A FOOT OR SO BY SUNDAY GIVEN THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS...BUT LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AND SWITCH TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INLAND AND WEAKENS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. 87/MM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 69 93 71 / 20 10 20 20
BTR 92 73 93 74 / 30 10 20 20
ASD 90 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 40
MSY 90 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 40
GPT 91 75 90 75 / 30 20 40 40
PQL 91 71 90 76 / 30 20 40 50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ536-538-555-
557-575-577.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ080.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ538-555-557-


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-07-2010 06:49 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
434 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.SHORT TERM...
WV SAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER W GULF AND SE TX WITH TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE ON EAST SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ACROSS REGION.
HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM NE BRINGING MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION. CURRENT PRECIP WATER IN THE 2.3 INCH
RANGE AND BEGINS DROPPING FROM E TO W THIS EVENING...WITH GFS
GUIDANCE INDICATING PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THU. WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... HAVE LEFT
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH WITH LACK OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING...WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON LOCAL EFFECT OF HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION THU
THROUGH SAT EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MOSTLY ISOLATED. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND LESS CONVECTION...MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO THE
LOW AND MID 90S. 21

&&

.LONG TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /
GENERAL TROFFING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS SUNDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT BECOMES DRAPED FROM NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BACK TOWARD THE UPPER GULF COAST (NEAR THE SRN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES). THERE COULD BE MORE OF A FLARE-UP OF TSTMS ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FOCUS PERHAPS IN OUR NRN FORECAST AREA (FA) WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WASHING OUT FRONT. AS A
RESULT WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS THERE.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TSTM CHANCES DROPPING BELOW CLIMO LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH IS CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDE OUTPUT.

STUREY

.AVIATION...
A TAP OF DEEP MOISTURE (IN A LONG SELY FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES) SHOULD LEAD
TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WE WOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...
THEN WORKING INLAND IN BANDING TYPE FASHION. THEREAFTER WITH HEATING
OVER LAND LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AN INTENSIFICATION OF
ACTIVITY SEEMS REASONABLE. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATE CEILINGS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS OCNLY DROPPING TO IFR NEAR PCPN.

MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT NOW WITH BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IN FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WE PROBABLY WILL BE
ABLE TO GEAR DOWN THE SHOWER AND TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE LATE HOURS
OF THE TAFS...JUST BEYOND THIS CYCLE.

STUREY

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT BETWEEN SW GULF WAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TN WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS UP TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME ABATEMENT IN WINDS THIS
EVENING...BUT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO FALL. WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO GIVE SEAS A LITTLE
TIME TO FALL BELOW 7 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE CONSIDERABLY ON
THURSDAY...AND MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 35


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 70 93 70 / 70 20 20 20
BTR 88 73 93 72 / 70 30 20 20
ASD 89 74 93 73 / 70 20 20 20
MSY 87 77 92 75 / 70 30 20 20
GPT 88 74 92 74 / 60 20 20 10
PQL 89 73 92 74 / 50 20 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRETON SOUND...AND CHANDELEUR SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND HAN****.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRETON SOUND...AND CHANDELEUR SOUND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-08-2010 06:23 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1018MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE...PRESSURE AROUND 1015MB OVER
ATCHAFALAYA AND 1008MB OVER WEST GULF...TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTHWEST GULF AND TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST GULF AND ALABAMA
EAST. 00Z THU...PRECIP H20 PLOT REVEALED 1.95 INCHES AT SLIDELL
AND 1.21 AT TALLY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST AND HIGH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE MAIN
TROUGH NEAR HUDSON MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT...SURF HIGH AND HIGH
ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH
MOVE OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND FRIDAY. ERGO...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FROM COASTAL WATERS
BUT KEPT SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI
COAST. WARM TEMPS WILL RETURN BUT DRY AIR IN LL WILL MIX OUT
TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER TEXAS BY
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY MAY YIELD A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. GFS HAS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SAT MORNING
BEFORE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ANOTHER APPROACHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVER EAST ZONES.

.LONG TERM / MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROFFING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL EASE...AS WESTERLIES LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WASHING OUT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)
MONDAY...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
MONDAY...BUT LESS THAN SUNDAY`S VALUES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ON THE VERY LOW END AT BEST. PW`S
ACTUALLY FALL UNDER 1.50 INCHES DURING THAT TIME-FRAME.

IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP
TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE (SURFACE AND ALOFT) SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

STUREY
&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR WORKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. TREND
IS FOR VALUES TO FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES IN OUR ERN FA LATER TODAY...
BUT REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WESTERN SECTIONS. MEANWHILE OVERALL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPSHOT
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR WEATHER DAY AT TAF SITES WITH SCT CUMULUS. WE
WILL PROBABLY ADD CB`S TO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED ON THE
NAM WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE WILL DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

STUREY

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
WHILE WINDS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS WERE STILL 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
WESTERNMOST ZONES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADD ANY NEW
SWELL TO THE MARINE AREA BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL LATER
TODAY. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...THE ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM
WILL BE TIMING THE DECAY RATE OF THE EXISTING SEA HEIGHTS /5 TO 6
FEET EAST TO 6 TO 8 FEET WEST/ THAT WILL BE MAINLY LEFTOVER SWELL
GIVEN THE COLLAPSE OF WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.

THE SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL ABOUT ONE FOOT EVERY 6 HOURS OR
SO...AND HAVE ACCELERATED THE DROP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE WNAWAVE MODEL WHICH
INITIALIZED A BIT HIGH ON THE 00Z RUN. THE EXISTING HEADLINES FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LAST ADVISORIES DUE TO
EXPIRE AT 1 PM TODAY. AFTER THE SWELL DISSIPATES...MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING SEAS
DOWN TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 71 95 72 / 20 10 20 10
BTR 93 73 95 74 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 92 72 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 92 75 93 77 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 91 72 93 76 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 93 72 93 73 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-09-2010 05:48 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A 1021MB HIGH OVER
NEBRASKA...AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LAKE ERIE TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...PW PLOTS AT 00Z
SHOWED ATL AT 1.22 INCHES...TALLY AROUND 1.1 INCHES AND 1.47 AT SLIDELL
AND 1.8 INCHES AT JACKSON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HIGH OVER
ALABAMA...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM HUDSON TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT /
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST BUT DAMPEN AS THE MAIN
TROUGH MOVES EAST TODAY. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...MOISTURE
POOLING WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OR OVER THE MID
SOUTH BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE PW VALUES UP TO 1.9 INCHES OVER
THE NORTH ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...5H TEMPS ARE HOVERING
AROUND -5C. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH ZONES
FOR TODAY AS ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH INTENSE SURF HEATING.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL INCH UP A TAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING MORE EAST...THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. MOISTURE AXIS WILL
BECOME SITUATED FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AXIS WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT NO STRONG DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW...ONLY
WEAKER WAVES SAT MORNING AND LATE SAT NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR NORTHEAST ZONES SAT AND SUN...SOUTH ZONES SOUTH OF THE
TIDAL LAKES ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO DRY AIR.

.LONG TERM.../ MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY /
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS... GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EUROPEAN WERE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH AND STRONG WEST EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

LITTLE TO FOCUS ON IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN... BUT SINCE PW`S
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.80 INCHES...THIS SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
MESO-SCALE FEATURES EACH DAY.

WE HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR ABOVE CLIMO FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PARKED OVER THE REGION.

STUREY
&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN SOME PATCHY FOG AND STATUS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH THE LATEST SREF GUIDE HAS LOCKED ONTO NICELY.
HOWEVER ANY STATUS AND FOG SHOULD BE BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNUP.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
FROM THE NORTH. MODELS INDICATED A BAND OF MOISTURE TRYING TO REACH
OUR NRN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH PW`S INCREASING TO
JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE NRN TAF
SITES...BUT FOR NOW WILL BE MENTIONING CB`S THIS AFTERNOON AT MCB
AND BTR WITH THE 12Z FORECAST. WILL PLAY SCT CUMULUS ELSEWHERE AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH TAF SITES. ANY PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR SRN TAF SITES...AND THAT WOULD CONSIST
PRIMARILY OF LOCALLY MVFR VSBYS.

STUREY

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF TODAY WILL SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY AND MID PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 71 93 72 / 20 20 30 30
BTR 95 75 94 76 / 20 10 30 30
ASD 94 75 93 76 / 10 10 30 30
MSY 94 77 93 78 / 10 10 20 30
GPT 94 75 93 76 / 10 10 30 30
PQL 94 73 93 74 / 10 10 30 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-10-2010 05:23 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA TO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE MAIN FRONT FROM NY TO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND GULF. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
IN ADDITION...TROUGH AXIS WAS FROM HUDSON TO THE APPALACHIANS. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOUD MASS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. IN ADDITION...PW PLOTS FROM 00Z SAT REVEALED A
GREATER THAN 2 INCH SWATH FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO JAN TO FWD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
5H TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND -5C TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES AND AN APPROACHING
SURF TROUGH...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DRY AIR RESIDING OVER THE NORTH
GULF WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH TODAY...BUT LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTH ZONES/COAST LA AND AWAY FROM TROUGH. ERGO...WILL
CARRY HIGHER POPS FOR MCB AND LOWER POPS FOR BVE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY BUT RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF TODAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
NORTH GULF DISPLACING THE HIGHER PW VALUES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM FOR
NEXT WEEK. DIRTY HIGH WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY`S COMBINED SEAS WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY CONFUSED...WITH
6-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELLS SUPERIMPOSED ON LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WAVES.
THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL DAMPEN THIS EVENING. THE WESTERLY WIND
WAVES WILL PREDOMINATE WITH A PERIOD FROM 2 TO 3 SECONDS.

FOR THE SHORELINE...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO
1-FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED LUNAR TIDES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO THE TIDE TABLES.

&&

.AVIATION...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH DERIDDER THROUGH BATON
ROUGE THROUGH GULFPORT THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND
EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE DEEPER BERMUDA PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM VICINITY TROUGH THIS
MORNING...PROPAGATING TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 71 92 73 / 50 30 50 30
BTR 93 75 94 75 / 40 20 40 20
ASD 92 74 93 74 / 40 30 30 30
MSY 92 77 93 77 / 40 20 30 20
GPT 92 75 93 75 / 40 30 30 30
PQL 92 74 93 73 / 40 30 30 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
[COLOR="Red"]LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.
[COLOR="red"]MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-11-2010 05:34 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO. A 1011MB LOW WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. PW PLOTS REVEALED A SWATH OF PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2
INCHES FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA...2.33 AT LIX...2.21 AT
TLH...2.02 AT LCH...2.16 AT JAN AND 2.36 INCHES AT SHV. GFS PLANER
FIELD OF PW VALUES INITIALIZED THIS SWATH WELL WITH MOISTURE AXIS
EXTENDING TO FORT WORTH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

.SHORT TERM... / TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON /
COVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WAS SCATTERED IN NATURE AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED. WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRESSING SOUTH DID NOT CONFINE
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SURF TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY
MORE DIFFUSE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESSING EAST ON THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ERGO...WILL KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH ZONES AND ISOLATED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. WILL KEEP
HEAT ADVISORY OVER COASTAL AREAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL
SLIDE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DISPLACE SOME DEEP MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 1.6 AT BTR
AND 2.0 AND PQL MONDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE FROM -5C
TODAY TO -3C TO -4C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LESS MOISTURE...WARMER
ATM COLUMN AND INCREASED THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INTENSE SURF
HEATING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINT READINGS BETWEEN
72F TO 75F WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 104F MONDAY AND UP
TO 107F FOR TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
POSSIBLE EXTENSION AND EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY OCCUR WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S PACKAGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE APPROACH THE MID SOUTH AND HELP PUSH THE HIGH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD NOT INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM... / TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY /
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGE AXIS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THUS HEAT CONTINUE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
STARTING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DEEP PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE SHORELINE OF
THE UPPER GULF COAST STATES BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY...AS THE BERMUDA PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

THE CONSEQUENT BREAKDOWN IN PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ALLOW A CARIBBEAN EASTERLY WAVE TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE.

FOR TODAY...THE COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFUSED OVER THE
COASTAL STRETCH BETWEEN ATCHAFALAYA BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FIVE-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE SUPERIMPOSED ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FILLING TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH BATON ROUGE THROUGH MCCOMB
THIS MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN VICINITY OF THIS
TROUGH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 73 93 73 / 50 20 20 10
BTR 92 75 95 75 / 50 20 20 10
ASD 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 20 10
MSY 92 77 93 77 / 40 20 20 10
GPT 91 75 92 75 / 50 20 20 10
PQL 93 75 93 75 / 50 20 30 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
[COLOR="Red"]LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
UPPER TERREBONNE.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.
[COLOR="red"]MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-12-2010 05:47 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDGE EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE THIRD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ZONAL PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE UPPER GULF
COAST STATES BY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EVEN FURTHER INLAND.

THE BREAKDOWN IN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AN ATLANTIC EASTERLY WAVE
(OR INVERTED TROUGH) TO ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.

THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
EXITING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

TRARES
&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SULTRY WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RAPIDLY HEAT-UP THE GROUND...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S. WHEN COMBINED
WITH A RICH MARINE LAYER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...THE AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES (OR HEAT INDICES) WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 105-DEGREE MARK.

ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR MID JULY...THE 105-DEGREE MARK IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS (BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM).

CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TRARES

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS GIVING SW FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IS
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5-2.0 INCHES OVER
WESTERN LOUISIANA GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS DRIER AIR IS INDICATED ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FROM
BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 PICK UP ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. WITH SUCH LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AT ANY GIVEN POINT...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE INCLUDED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
CUMULUS THAT DOES FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE SHALLOW WITH BASES AROUND 040 AND TOPS AROUND 100.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO
KEEP TERMINALS ALL VFR THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT HOUMA AND
MCCOMB.

ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK INTO TWO PIECES LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH ONE CENTER OVER TEXAS AND THE OTHER WELL EAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THAT AN AREA OF WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL
DOMINATE THE WATERS EAST OF THE CHANDELIER ISLANDS AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BARRIER ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KICK
WIND WAVES UP OVER THESE GULF WATERS TO 2-3 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AND LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE
CHANDELIERS...EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 1-2
FEET TO DOMINATE WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE AND SEA/LAND
BREEZE DOMINATED AFTER WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A MINIMUM OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

ALBRECHT

&&

.OUTLOOK...

THE 00Z-CYCLE GFS MODEL SUFFERS FROM A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM
ON FRIDAY. THE MODEL DEPICTS A HUGE SINGLE-CELL THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE ENTIRE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AN OBVIOUS FALLACY.

HOWEVER...TRUE TO THE FEEDBACK PROBLEM...THE HUGE THUNDERSTORM ONLY
PERSISTS FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ON SATURDAY...AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

THE CONVECTIVE RAINS TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...AS THE EASTERLY WAVE
EXITS WESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

TRARES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 74 94 73 / 0 10 10 10
BTR 94 76 95 76 / 0 10 10 10
ASD 92 77 95 76 / 10 0 10 10
MSY 93 78 94 78 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 92 78 94 77 / 10 0 10 10
PQL 94 75 94 75 / 20 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
[COLOR="Red"]LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
UPPER TERREBONNE.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.
[COLOR="red"]MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-13-2010 06:01 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDGE EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE THIRD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ZONAL PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE UPPER GULF
COAST STATES BY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND.

THIS BREAKDOWN IN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AN ATLANTIC EASTERLY WAVE
(OR INVERTED TROUGH) TO ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.

THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
GFS MODEL DEPICTS THIS WAVE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA.

THE EASTERLY WAVE WASHES OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

TRARES

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CARIBBEAN AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BEING
STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR SINKS AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE AIR COLUMN OVER THE CENTRAL UPPER GULF COAST
STATES IS BOTH STABLE AND MOIST.

THE GFS MODEL FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE ACCUMULATION OF HEAT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPICTING AFTERNOON 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
1430 METERS. THESE THICK VALUES PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE MID-AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 PERCENT (BATON ROUGE TO MCCOMB AREA) TO AROUND 55 PERCENT
(HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS AREA) TO AROUND 60 PERCENT (ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST). ASSOCIATED HEAT INDEXES (OR THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES) WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SULTRY WEATHER IS EVEN MORE OPPRESSIVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT DIRECTLY OVER
LOUISIANA. CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS DEPICTS 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES OF 1430 METERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT.

TRARES

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SITS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.4-1.75 INCHES. THE DRY AIR...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH NEARBY AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT MOST OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. SO WHILE THE TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE KMCB AND KHUM MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5SM BR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT SHOULD BE CENTERED ABOUT 100
NM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY AND 100 NM
SOUTH OF SABINE PASS LATE THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS 1-2
FEET. HIGHEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EAST OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS AND SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI BARRIER
ISLANDS... AND IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS JUST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TO OUR SOUTH. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ALBRECHT

&&

.OUTLOOK...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE FAR EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY...SPREADING WESTWARD ON
FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... AS THE
EASTERLY WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

THE CONVECTIVE RAINS TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...AS THE EASTERLY WAVE
EXITS WESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

TRARES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 73 96 72 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 95 75 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 94 77 95 78 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 92 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 94 74 96 73 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
[COLOR="Red"]LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.
[COLOR="red"]MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-14-2010 06:42 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
552 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA BUILDS NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE AIR MASS
CONDITIONS TO BE RATHER DRY TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SUBSIDENCE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL
GIVE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION TO THE AREA TODAY.

DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KHUM HAS BEEN REPORTING 3SM BR OCNL 1/2SM FG THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BURN OFF AROUND 13Z. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALBRECHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDGE EAST-TO-WEST THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS ZONAL PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA-EAST TEXAS...WHILE BREAKING DOWN ACROSS FLORIDA-GEORGIA.

THE BREAKDOWN IN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AN ATLANTIC EASTERLY WAVE
(OR INVERTED TROUGH) TO ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.

THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWEST JOURNEY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...REACHING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON
SATURDAY...WHERE IT COMES TO AN ABRUPT HALT...RUNNING UP AGAINST A
DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS-OKLAHOMA.

THE EASTERLY WAVE WASHES OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON
MONDAY...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-BUILDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TRARES

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SINKING CARIBBEAN AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE AIR COLUMN OVER THE CENTRAL UPPER GULF COAST
STATES WILL REMAIN BOTH STABLE AND MOIST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL FORCE
HEAT INDEXES TO CLIMB TO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN. A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

NOTE...THE HEAT INDEX...WHICH MEASURES THE BODY`S INABILITY TO
DISSIPATE HEAT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...ASSUMES THAT A PERSON IS
AT REST IN THE SHADE. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO DIRECT SUNLIGHT OR
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY...WHICH ADDS TO THE HEAT LOAD ON THE BODY...IS NOT
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE HEAT INDEX. STANDING IN THE DIRECT RAYS OF THE
SUN CAN RAISE THE HEAT INDEX BY AS MUCH AS 14 DEGREES...ABOVE THE
NUMBERS BEING PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. THE ELDERLY AND OVERWEIGHT
ARE PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR HEAT CRAMPS AND HEAT EXHAUSTION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST LATER TONIGHT...AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE PHASES IN WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA-EAST TEXAS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE RAIN WILL
SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST.

SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN-COOLED AIR.

TRARES

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF MIDDAY TODAY
THEN INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IS CENTERED THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THURSDAY.

UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY TODAY...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO NE TEXAS...EXPECT A
MINIMUM OF CONVECTION TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER MOIST WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S. SKIES ARE RATHER CLEAR...SO EXPECT LOCATIONS WHERE
WIND FLOW IS LIGHT...LIKE KMCB AND KHUM...TO SEE A PERIOD OF 2-4SM
BR WITH KMCB SEEING SOME BKN006 TIL 14Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THU MORNING.

ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF MIDDAY TODAY
THEN INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD
AND A TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES INTO THE
WATERS...EXPECT WEST WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY...THEN TO
BECOME RATHER LIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

ONCE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FEET. SEAS MAY RISE TO 3 FEET OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DIRECT SOME SWELL INTO THE
WATERS.

ALBRECHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 96 73 95 73 / 10 10 30 40
BTR 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 20 40
ASD 94 75 92 74 / 10 10 30 40
MSY 95 78 94 77 / 10 10 30 40
GPT 96 76 93 75 / 10 10 30 40
PQL 98 74 94 73 / 20 20 30 40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
[COLOR="Red"]LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.
[COLOR="red"]MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-15-2010 05:52 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS RIDGE...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...[COLOR="red"]HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TOWARD DANGEROUS LEVELS
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...WARRANTING A
CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING[/COLOR]. OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST...A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND SOME WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE MARKEDLY HEADING INTO TOMORROW.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AS HEIGHTS FALL...THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ONLY SERVE TO BRING HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE...HAVE WENT WITH
HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER
ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A REGION OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BECOME DOMINANT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BROAD AND DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WITH THIS FLOW
REGIME IN PLACE...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHS
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. THESE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL
BRING A RICH MOISTURE SOURCE...AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH ON
MONDAY...WITH CONTINUED ENHANCED CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
INITIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS
LOCATED AROUND THIS HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ON THE ORDER
OF 1.7 INCHES PER THE 00Z SOUNDING AT SLIDELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2.5 INCHES PER THE 00Z TALLAHASSEE FL SOUNDING...IS
MOVING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
TODAY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA AS THIS WEAK FEATURE
SETTLES SOUTHWESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW SITTING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. A FURTHER
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY AS THIS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT ONLY DEBRIS CIRRUS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. LOCATIONS LIKE KHUM AND KMCB...WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE LOW...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE WILL INDICATE VCTS 22Z-02Z
THERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI ZONES...SO ONLY CU WILL BE MENTIONED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING ONLY CIRRUS DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION
OVER LAND FRI WILL OCCUR AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN TO THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE WATERS.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHWEST TODAY
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY EXPECT A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT TO SPREAD WEST BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A RATHER LARGE FETCH OF 15-20
KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
ALLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET TO FORM OVER THE OPEN
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOCAL SEAS TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRI
NIGHT.

LONGER TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT S TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND
SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS WEST FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA.

ALBRECHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 96 75 92 75 / 20 20 30 20
BTR 97 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20
ASD 96 78 91 77 / 20 20 50 30
MSY 95 80 93 79 / 20 20 50 30
GPT 96 79 91 78 / 30 20 50 30
PQL 95 79 92 77 / 30 20 50 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
[COLOR="Red"]LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.
[COLOR="red"]MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.[/COLOR]
GM...NONE.