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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-23-2010 06:00 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD 1016MB HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES RETREATING EAST AND A DEEP LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A WEAK SOUTH FLOW WAS OBSERVED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MODERATE SOUTH FLOW OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA NEAR GREATER PRESSURE CHANGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS
NOTED FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MAIN TROUGH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH FROM MONTANA TO THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FIELD SHOWED AREA VALUE NEAR 1.57 INCHES
AT 00Z. IN ADDITION...LATEST LIX SOUNDING REVEALED AN INVERSION
FROM 5KFT TO 7.5FKT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE IS EXPECTED AMPLIFY TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE WAVE OVER PENN TO MOVE
SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS AND ALLOW 1000 TO 500 LAYER THICKNESS VALUES
TO LOWER 20 TO 30M. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL RE-DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND POOL MOIST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH AND EAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WE RAISED LOW TEMPS A CAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
TIDAL LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AND PROVIDE A LIGHT NORTH FLOW FOR EAST ZONES TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS EAST OF THE FORECAST
TUESDAY...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE FROM NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SNEAKY ISOLATED STORMS
FROM NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ALBEIT A WEAK NORTH
FLOW...THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER
CYCLONIC CYCLONIC WILL OPEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH SOUTH AND AWAY
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY. WIND PATTERN WILL
BECOME VERY WEAK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE AND PW
VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMS AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CONVECTION WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. HUMID GULF
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THIS MORNING...MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KMCB/KHSA THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SPEEDS
5-10 KNOTS. SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING PER LATEST MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUD
BASES RISING TO 3000-5000FT BY AFTERNOON. CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH SKC THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ANY INHIBITING CONVECTION.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.MARINE...
FEW CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF
5-10 KTS AND LOW SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FROM EAST TO WEST. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TOMORROW...WITH LOW POPS RETURNING TO THE
EASTERN WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN PWATS AND WEAK LIFT. POPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
WESTWARD AND INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 69 92 68 / 10 10 20 10
BTR 93 70 92 69 / 10 10 20 10
ASD 92 71 91 69 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 91 75 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 90 73 90 71 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 90 71 90 67 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-24-2010 06:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
332 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GFS/4KM WRF DEPICTING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FIRST 60 HRS AS INFLUENCE OF EAST COAST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WANES OVER THE GULF STATES. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER ATLANTIC NEAR THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINS OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP A WEAK FRONTAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE TO SE IN FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME...ALLOWING INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM GULF. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP
WATER NUDGES UPWARD TO AROUND 1.80 INCHES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS
E HALF OF FORECAST AREA.

SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS WHICH SEEM TO BE QUITE
REASONABLE. STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS INLAND AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER EAST/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP WITH DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IN TIME...HEIGHTS WILL LOWER
SLIGHTLY OVER REGION. TEMPERATURE WILL BE GENERALLY 60S AND 70S
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S MOST AREAS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID TO UPPER 80S MOST AREAS...ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST WITH THE
AXIS FROM EAST TEXAS TO DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY. THUS...A
MODERATE NORTH FLOW FROM 800MB TO 100MB WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST OVER
PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST
ZONES...WELL THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER PASSAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES THURSDAY THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING TO
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GOING INTO SATURDAY...GFS
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY DRY AIR USHERING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
ECMWF SHOWED A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY AND SIT THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO
HOLD OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE A LOW COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE MAIN FLOW SHOULD PICK
UP THE LOW LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH GFS
FORECAST...BELOW NORM RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND MEMORIAL DAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY. ERGO...DRY ATM WILL MIX OUT TO THE SURF AND HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO LOWER 90S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 60S FOR LOWS SUNDAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...AS A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN 3 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN CALM...WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS EXPECTED. THESE FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
MAINLY FROM N/NE. CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED BY 06Z. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BECOME REDUCED BY FOG TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MILES AT A TERMINALS
AFT 07Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KMCB...WHERE THE HORIZONTAL
VISIBILITY MAY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS AFT 09Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE BY 14Z MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF FOG WITH
SCT STRATUS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER LOW AND WILL PROBABLY NOT MENTION IN TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 71 89 70 / 20 20 30 10
BTR 94 70 89 69 / 20 20 20 10
ASD 89 75 89 73 / 20 20 20 20
MSY 90 73 88 74 / 20 20 20 10
GPT 93 74 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
PQL 95 74 88 73 / 20 20 30 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-25-2010 05:51 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FCST. UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST
AND RIDGE OVER THE CNTL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP A NRLY FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW A DIFFUSE SFC TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM ROUGHLY ERN ARKANSAS SEWD TOWARD THE FL HANDLE WAFFLING ABOUT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOR SCT CONVECTION THRU
THE PERIOD....ESP THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING VARIETY. GFS/NAM12
SHOW PW`S CLIMBING FROM THE CURRENT 1.6" TO NEAR 2" LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN LA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY <7KT ALONG WITH AN INVERTED-V PROFILE AT THAT TIME SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGER CELLS. EXPECTING SAME TYPE WX ON WED. /BK/

.LONG TERM...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAROLINAS AND TROUGH
AXIS WEST TO THE MID SOUTH...OVERALL FLOW ABOVE 850MB WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...THUS MAINTAINING THE BROAD NORTH FLOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. RIDGE
WILL BECOME A FULL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SAT...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH AXIS REMAINS FROM
GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD INCREASE
UP TO 1.9 INCHES SATURDAY...AROUND 2 INCHES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AT SURFACE...WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT...NORTH AT TIMES DUE TO A
WEAK HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTH FLORIDA MAINTAINING A
WEAK NORTH SURFACE FLOW. THUS...SEA...LAKE AND RIVER BREEZES AND
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. ABOVE
NORM PW VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL YIELD HIGH END SCATTERED
CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. COLLAPSE STEERING WINDS
FROM 5 TO 15FKT MAY SEE SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
ISOLATED ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY OUTSIDE SCT AFTN AND EVENING
CONVECTION. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING
AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARD MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. /BK/

&&

.MARINE...
WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY FROM A SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STAND POINT BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE MOVE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MUCH
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US WILL
BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER LAND BUT THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE TO SW/WSW AND VERY WELL COULD IMPACT SOME OF THE
OPERATIONS OVER THE WATER. AREAS MOSTLY LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WILL
BE OPERATIONS IN SLIDELL, HOPEDALE, AND ROBERT ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION
COULD BE IMPACTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT TO
CONSTANT LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND CONTAINED TO THE LAND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE GULF. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 68 88 67 / 40 30 40 20
BTR 92 69 90 69 / 30 20 40 20
ASD 90 70 87 68 / 30 30 40 20
MSY 90 73 88 71 / 30 20 40 20
GPT 87 70 86 68 / 30 20 30 20
PQL 89 70 86 66 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-26-2010 04:36 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1006MB LOW EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTH CENTRAL
GULF YIELDING A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND RIDGE AXIS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WET-BULB TEMP CONTINUE TO ASCEND UP TO 13KFT AT 00Z WITH
PW VALUE AROUND 1.7 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS
AND WEST GULF TODAY CREATING A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS FOR TODAY. WITH THE LIGHT NORTH FLOW
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
WET-BULB ZERO WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 13KFT WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES BOTH DAYS. WRF MODEL HAS MORE COVERAGE
THAN MOS AND MET NUMBERS AND THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND SINCE SUNDAY
MORNING. ERGO...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE MORE IN STEP WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AFTER A SLIGHT SHIFT WEST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND MORE
AMPLIFIED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CREATING A STRONGER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. FOR SEVERAL RUNS ECMWF SHOWED SOME DRY ENTRAINMENT ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND WEST TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
GFS HAS FOLLOWED IN STEP WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON ITS LATEST RUN.
GFS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN EMCWF. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OVER EAST ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEST ZONES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST LEAVING THE EAST
ZONES WITH HIGHER PW VALUES MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DO SO THRU SUNRISE. ONCE IT BURNS OFF BY EARLY/MID MORNING VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE SOME SCT STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTN AND
EVNG BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN SEEN YDAY
AS ATMOS SHOULDN`T BE QUITE AS MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...STORM
MOTIONS WILL REMAIN SLOW SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. APPEARS BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SITUATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 & I-12
CORRIDOR THOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO A FEW CELLS POP UP CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /BK/

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS OCCURS THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AS A WEAK SFC TROF/LOW BACKS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE FL/GA REGION AND HIGH PRES DEVELOPS IN THE NW GULF.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 67 89 68 / 40 30 40 40
BTR 90 69 90 69 / 40 30 40 40
ASD 87 68 90 69 / 40 30 30 30
MSY 88 73 89 72 / 30 20 30 30
GPT 87 69 90 70 / 40 20 20 20
PQL 86 66 92 69 / 40 20 20 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-27-2010 05:43 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1022MB HIGH OVER MINNESOTA WITH A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO EAST TEXAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED WEST FROM
NEW MEXICO TO MINNESOTA...NORTHERLY FLOW WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED AT THE TOP OF
RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS SHOWED RELATIVELY DRY AREA OVER
JACKSON/BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
COAST...DRY AIR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 1.4
INCHES NEAR MCB...ASD...GPT. DISPLACED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST WITH PW VALUES HOVERING 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES OVER AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TODAY. SHORT WAVE AT THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE MID SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. GFS AND ECMWF HOLDS THIS
FEATURE OVER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME DRY
ENTRAINMENT ON THE WEST SIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CLEAN AS
PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. ERGO...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTHEAST ZONES AS
DRY AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GFS AND ECMWF LIFTS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTHEAST AND LEAVING
THE AIR MASS INTACT WITH LAYERED MOISTURE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ERGO...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF CONVECTION
WILL EXIST EACH DAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENCE FCST IN THE WORKS. SPOTTY MVFR UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. 4KM WRF...WHICH HAS
DONE A DECENT JOB THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS DEPICTING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE MS COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MOVES
IT SSWD. WILL WATCH TO GPT/HSA TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SCATTERED AFTN & EVNG STORMS IN THE 18-02Z RANGE. /BK/

&&

.MARINE...
WRF & NAM12 SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES/OUTFLOWS LATER IN THE AFTN/EVNG. OTHERWISE...A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
LEADING TO LIGHT...AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF AND SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 67 90 67 / 40 40 20 20
BTR 91 68 92 69 / 40 40 20 20
ASD 91 68 92 69 / 30 30 20 20
MSY 91 73 90 71 / 30 30 20 20
GPT 91 69 91 69 / 20 20 20 20
PQL 93 68 92 69 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-28-2010 05:44 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO
EXTEND A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTH GULF COAST. WEAK FORCING LOCALLY WILL GENERALLY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AS THE
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WILL BE MORPHING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH. THE INITIAL
IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE OF INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL COME OVER THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND WHEN THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE NATION. AS THIS OCCURS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE GULF STATES. BFG

.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...
UPPER TROF/LOW JUST ENE OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FILL...BUT STILL LEAVE A WEAK TROF STRETCHING IN SE LA INTO MIDWEEK
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE USUAL SCT AFTN/EVNG PRECIP TO CONTINUE (WITH
BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY AND LESS COVERAGE TUE/WED). MODELS SHOWING
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON THURS OR FRI BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROF WILL BE. WILL KEEP LOWER
END CHC POPS GOING UNTIL FCST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME SPOTTY MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. ISO/SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTN THEN TAPER OFF IN THE EVNG. ANTICIPATING SIMILAR PRECIP
COVERAGE AS YDAY...STARTING INLAND THEN DRIFTING SWD WIN THE NRLY
FLOW ALOFT. /BK/

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 67 88 66 / 20 20 40 30
BTR 93 69 91 69 / 20 20 40 30
ASD 92 69 89 67 / 30 20 40 30
MSY 91 71 88 72 / 20 20 40 30
GPT 92 69 88 69 / 20 20 40 30
PQL 93 69 90 68 / 30 20 40 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-29-2010 06:14 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTH
TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING
IN MODERATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AERIAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A VORTICITY MAX CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS A WELL
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MODELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW TRACKING SOUTH TOWARD THE
GULF COAST BEFORE BEING SWEPT NORTH WITH A PASSING TROUGH. LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS SMALL VORT MAXES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...BRINGING INSTABILITY TO
ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP FOR FRI WAS IN THE UPPER 80`S AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR TODAY. SUNDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP IN CONVECTION AS
THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN MS/AL BRINGING MORE
INSTABILITY TO THE CWA. LI`S ON SUN WILL BE NEAR -6 C. THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE IN SUBSEQUENT
PACKAGES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
AND TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT
IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REFLECTS MODERATE INTENSITY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BRING A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. BFG

.LONG TERM...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TUE INTO WED AS REMNANTS OF THE
TROF PUSH EWD...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
PRECIP. CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN INCREASE THURS/FRI AS THE NEXT TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST - POSSIBLY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OFFSHORE. WILL LIKELY SEE THIS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY PUSHING SWD NEAR THE AR/MS/LA
BORDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTN. 4KM WRF SOMEWHAT SHOWS THIS BUT
COULD BE A LITTLE EARLY REGARDING TIMING. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...BUT DO EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND EVNG...POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. COULD BE SOME PULSE SVR STORMS WITH
HAIL/WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. /BK/

&&

.MARINE...
SCT/NUM STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...ESP IN THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA. WINDS >33KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
CELLS. MODELS SHOW ADDL DVLPMENT S OF THE MS WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING & ERLY AFTN. WILL PROBABLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK THIS EVNG
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FLARE UP OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SFC LOW
PRES AREA NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD DRIFT WWD TODAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME SWRLY THIS AFTN. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK...SO WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
S/SW FLOW SHOULD THEN TAKE SHAPE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
IN THE ATLANTIC EDGING INTO THE ERN GULF. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 65 88 66 / 50 30 50 30
BTR 91 68 89 70 / 40 30 40 30
ASD 90 69 88 70 / 50 30 50 30
MSY 89 72 88 73 / 50 30 50 30
GPT 88 69 86 71 / 50 30 50 30
PQL 89 69 87 70 / 50 30 50 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-30-2010 05:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MEMORIAL
DAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI. WV INDICATES A NICE DRY SLOT OVER THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED
DAY TIME HEATING TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...BUT ACHIEVING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MIDDAY OR SHORTLY AFTER. MODEL LI`S CONTINUE TO BE IN THE -6 C
RANGE WITH CAPE IN 2 TO 3000 J/KG REALM. THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE
THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST OTHER THAN
TO INCREASE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE NIGHTTIME
COVERAGE OVER LAND. BFG

.LONG TERM...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR WED AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES EWD INTO CNTL TX...BUT PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
SOME ISO/SCT AFTN & EVNG TSTMS THOUGH. MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE
ITS EWD PROGRESS INTO LA ON THURS. GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL SHOW
IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS LFQ OF THE JET NEARS THE REGION. THIS
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES OF SHRA/TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. NUDGED POPS UPWARD WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE AND
THEY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE FURTHER INCREASED AS FCST CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES. TROF SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH E OF THE REGION ON FRI WITH A
NW FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY (ASSUMING THERE AREN`T ANY SURPRISE IMPULSES RIDING DOWN THE
NWLIES ALOFT). /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THIS
MORNING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE OFFSHORE. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP TO BREAK A WEAK CAP AND BRING THESE
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AS WELL AS ALLOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. THE 4KM WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE STORMS WITH
PEAK CONVECTION OCCURRING AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...BUT DO EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF STORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME PULSE
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BFG

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PARKED OVER THE REGION AND THIS
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSNUMEROUS AT
TIMESOVER THE OPERATIONS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW BUT LOOK FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
WELL. RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHORT-
LIVED PERIODS OF HIGHER GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 67 88 67 / 70 20 60 30
BTR 89 71 89 71 / 70 20 50 20
ASD 87 71 88 71 / 70 30 60 30
MSY 88 73 89 73 / 70 20 50 30
GPT 86 72 87 72 / 70 30 60 30
PQL 87 71 87 70 / 70 30 60 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-31-2010 05:39 AM

Wet start for the gulf coast for Memorial Day:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE AREA
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING CONTINUED ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WV SAT IMAGERY THIS MRNG SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MVNG INTO
TN. A TAILING TROF WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE CWA TDY. MODEL CAPE AND LI`S ARE LOWER FOR TDY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE. THE BULK
OF ACTIVITY WILL TRIGGER OFF SEA AND LAKE BREEZES. MODELS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE. LI`S AND CAPE VALUES ARE GREATER OVER THE CWA WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE TUE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION ARE
STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...THERE IS A FAIR
CHNC TO SEE A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY INITIATE OVER THE
WATERS. AS IT STANDS CURRENTLY...WED LOOKS TO BE THE CALMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. BFG

.LONG TERM...
BAGGY UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHIFT
EAST AS SW U.S. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALBEIT FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN GRADIENT
TIGHTSLY SLIGHTLY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
MOISTURE STILL REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH. GREATER POPS STILL IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY WITH 50S AREAWIDE THEN SHOULD TAPER DOWN ON FRIDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY. POPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE LOWEST IN
THIS PACKAGE. SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED BEYOND
SATURDAY WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND PREVAILING S OR SW LL
FLOW. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWRES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
MOVE THROUGH THE SERN CWA AND NEARBY OR OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. HAVE UPDATED TO ADD AT LEAST VCSH AND TEMPO`D IN IN
SHRA/TSRA AT MSY THROUGH 12Z. STILL EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W SWINGING THROUGH BY TO THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
IS NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT BUT NOT AFTER IT BRINGS ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THESE STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT AND WITH STORMS
REFIRING AROUND MIDDAY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PRIMARILY OVER LAND.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY THINGS
WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN FROM A THUNDERSTORM STANDPOINT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE PURELY ASSOCIATED THE
SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
ON THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS FOR WINDS AND
SEAS...LOOK FOR ANOTHER 3-4 DAYS OF RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT
SEAS. WE MAY HOVER AROUND 1-2 FT EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT SEAS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1 FT. BY LATE THIS WEEK AND MORE SO THIS WEEKEND
THE PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH SEAS
BACK UP TO THAT 2-3 FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 68 89 67 / 60 30 40 20
BTR 89 70 90 70 / 60 20 40 20
ASD 88 71 89 70 / 60 30 40 20
MSY 88 72 89 73 / 60 30 40 20
GPT 87 72 88 71 / 60 30 50 20
PQL 87 70 88 70 / 60 30 50 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-31-2010 09:05 AM

525
FZUS74 KLIX 311405
MWSLIX

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
905 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

GMZ555-311530-
905 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE LOUISIANA SOUNDS...

AT 859 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO 33 KNOTS AND LIGHTNING
FROM 8 NM NORTHWEST OF BRETON SOUND TO 17 NM EAST OF BARATARIA
BAY...MOVING EAST AT 5 KNOTS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS. OIL CLEAN UP PERSONNEL SHOULD SEEK COVER FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3001 8890 2936 8927 2936 8940 2938 8940
2940 8943 2939 8950 2941 8957 2942 8958
2947 8955 2949 8962 2952 8966 2978 8947
2979 8945 2980 8946 3000 8932

$$


24/RR [Image: radmap.php?pid=201005311405-KLIX-FZUS74-MWSLIX]