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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-23-2006 09:14 AM

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy and hot, with a high around 95. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 76. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-24-2006 02:53 AM

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF BOUNDARY AND ALSO
DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS OF LATE. BOUNDARY MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS FIRST ACROSS SRN MS AND THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHSHORE. THIS
BOUNDARY HELPED PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH LOSS OF ENERGY AFTER SUNSET THIS SYSTEM IS LOSING SOME PUNCH.
STORMS ARE LESS AND MUCH WEAKER. SYSTEM TO N OVER W MS INTO NE LA
MAY GRAZE EXTREME SW MS INTO PARTS OF THE FL PARISHES.
HOWEVER...THIS STORM ARE DECREASING AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-24-2006 10:06 AM

Special Marine Warning
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
932 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006

GMZ550-241515-
/O.CON.KLIX.MA.W.0079.000000T0000Z-060624T1515Z/
932 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
INCLUDING ISLE DERNIERS...GRAND ISLE...POINT AU FER ISLAND AND
TIMBALIER ISLAND

AT 931 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT 9 MILES
SOUTH OF POINT AU FER ISLAND...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS...HIGH SEAS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 2893 9129 2878 9110 2872 9084 2875 9030
2898 8977 2928 8993 2931 9127


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-25-2006 06:04 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 250858
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE GAME IS TRY TO FIND THE SFC FRONT. THIS TIME OF YEAR NOT ONLY
IS IT VERY RARE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHEN THEY
DO OCCUR THEY BECOME MODIFIED SO MUCH THEY ARE UNNOTICEABLE AT THE
SFC. BUT THERE ARE OTHER TRICKS TO FINDING THE ILLUSIVE BOUNDARY.
IT BEGINS TO SHOW UP IN 800MB HEIGHTS BUT IS QUITE NOTICEABLE BY
700MB. THE SO CALLED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE RESTING AT OR VERY NEAR THE COAST. MODELS OBVIOUSLY HAVING
A TOUGH TIME WITH THIS. HAVE WATCHED POP NUMBERS GO FROM THE 10% TO
50% PERCENT ON SUCCESSIVE DAYS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SLOWING OF
THE FRONTS PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. POP NUMBERS WILL LIKELY DO
THE SAME FOR MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP NUMBERS SLIGHTLY TO
30% AND 40% FOR THE AREA. THESE CAN BE LOOKED AT AFTER THE 12Z
RUN TO SEE WHERE THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. AFTERWARDS...A
SLOW DECREASING POP TREND THROUGH MID WEEK IS EXPECETED WHICH IS
ALSO THE TIME FRAME THAT THE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT THROUGH THE
AREA.

VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE GULF BY
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SINCE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL PICK UP THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
FLA ABSORBING IT AND SENDING IT NORTH AND NORTHEAST KEEPING US
PROTECTED FROM ANY TROPICAL WEATHER WHILE GIVING SOME MUCH NEEDED
FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING IT TO PICK UP SP


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-26-2006 08:40 AM

National Weather Service New Orleans La
330 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2006

.discussion...
5h Analysis Continue To Show A Cyclonic Circulation Over Northern
Illinois With Northwest Flow Over Lower Mississippi Valley. Water
Vapor Revealed A Vort Max...from Central Illinois To South Missouri
To East Oklahoma...rotating South. In Addition...a Broad
Anti-cyclonic Circulation Was Centered Over The Great Basin. Surface
Analysis Revealed A Dissolving Frontal Boundary From East Tennessee
To Mississippi Coast To Southeast Louisiana. Jan Sounding At 00z
Revealed A Cape Value Of 600 J/kg...pw Value Around 1.4 Inches And A
North Flow From The Surface To 550 Mb. Sil Sounding At 00z Revealed
A Cape Value Around 1000 J/kg...pw Value Of 1.8 Inches And Southwest
Flow At Surface To 900mb. Gfs Continue To Indicated The Vort Max
To Swing South This Afternoon And Tighten The Moisture Axis Over
South And Southeast Mississippi By Midday And Over Southeast
Louisiana South Of Lake Pontchartrain 18z To 00z. Ergo...no Real
Changes To Rain Chances Across The Forecast Area Today. Gfs And
Nam Differ In Solution Tuesday And Wednesday. Gfs Filter In Dry
Air With Pw Value Dropping To 1.2 Inches At The Mouth And Drier
Will All Points North. Nam Or Old Eta Holds On To Moisture With
Values Remain Around 1.5 Inches Into Wednesday. No Real Difference
In Synoptic Pattern As Trough Axis Remains Over The Mississippi
River And West Flow At The Base Of The Trough Or Over The
Forecast. The Disturbance That Sharpened And Deepen The Trough
Over The Lower Mississippi Valley Will Pull East And Trough Will
Lift And Allow A Weak West Flow Aloft To Drift Over The North Gulf
And Forecast Area Thursday Into Friday. This Will Allow Mid Layers
To Become A Little Moist By Friday. At The Same Time...anti-
Cylonic Circulation Will Amplify Over The Four Corners Region. As
A Result...a Slight Weakness May Develop From The Mid Mississippi
Valley To Texas And Northwest Flow Corridor Will Likely Setup From
The Upper Plains To The Lower Mississippi Valley Friday Into
Saturday. Will Maintain Rain Chances Toward The Weekend. Will
Maintain Rain Chances For The Weekend. A Break In Temps Is Expected This
Week As 1000 To 700mb Thickness Values From 3060 To 3030m Today
And Continue To Lower Through Wednesday To 3015m...courtesy Of The
Upper Level Trough. Not Bold Enough To Insert Upper 50s Wednesday
Morning For Interior South Mississippi Yet. That Is All For Now.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-26-2006 11:21 PM

Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 261959
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
259 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR
AREA. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA...WITH MODELS
SHOWING PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY.
AFTER TODAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT HELPED
TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND PULL INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY WILL BE AROUND 90 OR THE LOW 90S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THICKNESSES HIT THEIR MINIMUM ACROSS THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE 1000-700HPA THICKNESS WILL DROP FROM AROUND 3040M TODAY TO
3015M NORTH AND 3025M SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE
DRIER AIR THAT IS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN MANY AREAS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL AGGRAVATE THE FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID
NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 91 60 91 / 10 5 0 0
BTR 68 92 63 92 / 10 5 0 0
MSY 75 91 72 91 / 10 5 0 5
GPT 70 92 66 91 / 10 5 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-28-2006 07:36 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 280909
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER EAST
TEXAS...EAST OKLAHOMA....ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS FROM WISCONSIN TO EAST TEXAS AND
RELATIVE FAST WEST FLOW WAS NOTED OVER TEXAS TO GULF COAST.

NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE LAST THREE SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS.
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DISTURBANCES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ROTATES SOUTH AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND LEAVE A WEAKER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THIS MORNING. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE MID SOUTH. NO REAL PUSH AT
THE SURFACE TO DRIVE THE HIGHER DP WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...UPPER WINDS PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO GULF
COAST TODAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH UNTIL THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND A SOUTH FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE STARTING SUNDAY. PW
VALUES OFF GFS INCREASE UP TO 1.8 BY 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF FORECAST AREA. WITH NO SUPPRESSIVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR NEXT WEEK...AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. TWO MORE COOL NIGHTS FOR NORTH
HALF CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS CLOSE TO NORM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-30-2006 08:18 AM

Fxus64 Klix 300820
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
320 Am Cdt Fri Jun 30 2006

.discussion...

We Were Having A Fairly Pleasant Night For This Time Of Year With
Dew Points Down Into The 60s And Temps In The Low To Mid 70s
Across Much Of The Area. However...moisture Will Increase Over The
Next Few Days With Southerly/southeasterly Flow Developing Around
The Bermuda High. This Also Means That We Will Move Into A Pattern
With Better Chances For Precip. The Areas Of Convection Will
Spread Eastward Into Louisiana From Texas Over The Weekend...with
Scattered Activity Reaching Parts Of Our Area By Sunday. The Nam
Shows A Circulation Developing In The Activity...moving Into
Southwest Louisiana Sunday Night. The Gfs Just Shows The More
Regular Diurnal Activity. We Will Not Jump On The Nam Circulation
Just Yet. Then The Gfs Shows A Front Dropping Into Northern
Louisiana/central Mississippi On Wednesday And Slowly Pushing
Southward To The Coast Through The Remainder Of Next Week. This
Slow Progression Of The Front Could Give Us Several Days Of Above
Average Chances For Precip Across The Area.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 95 67 94 69 / 10 10 10 10
Btr 96 69 94 71 / 10 10 10 10
Msy 94 77 93 78 / 10 10 20 10
Gpt 94 72 91 75 / 10 10 10 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-01-2006 08:41 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 010824
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALSO INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIP. CURRENTLY THE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN GULF
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA/ MISSISSIPPI BY
THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE GULF COAST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS INTO THE EAST COAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO OUR AREA.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-02-2006 09:01 AM

Fxus64 Klix 020754
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
254 Am Cdt Sun Jul 2 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning The Bermuda Ridge Extending Into The
Southeastern States Continued To Bring Increasing Moisture Into
The Lower Mississippi Valley. Precip Water Values Have Increased
From About 1.2 To 1.7 Inches Friday Evening To Saturday Evening At
Lix. The Gfs Shows Values Approaching 2 Inches In The Western
Portions Of Our Pcwa Today...but The Nam Concentrates The Higher
Values To The West Over Texas With Values Near 1.6 In Our Western
Area. The Trend Seems To Be Leaning More Toward The Gfs
Solution...so The Occasional Overnight Convection Should Increase
To Scattered By This Afternoon Across Much Of Our Area. This
General Pattern Should Continue Over The Next Few Days.

An Upper-level Trough Will Drop Into The Eastern Seaboard Later
This Week...and Help To Push A Cold Front Into Northern Louisiana/
Mississippi By Friday Morning. The Gfs Then Shows The Front
Slowly Sinking Toward The Coast By Saturday. Thus We Should Be
Moving Into A Wetter Pattern For The Next Week Or So...and
Hopefully Alleviating Some Of The Drought Conditions In Our Area.

&&