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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-22-2010 05:00 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG SUPRESSION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS CAUSING VERY LOW
CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT SHOULD GET THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND DISIPATED THE FOG THIS
MORNING. WILL MOST LIKELY BE UPDATING AS THIS OCCURS THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL
STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE SUPTROP JET TO SPREAD OVER
THE AREA TUE INTO EARLY WED. SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR BY WED
AFTERNOON. THEN ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SFC LOWS DEVELOPS NEAR BRN
FRI AND MOVES EAST GIVING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

.LONG TERM...
THATS RIGHT...YOU GUESSED IT...YET ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER TX
SUN EVENING AND MOVES EAST. WE ARE SAYING TX BECAUSE NO CLEAR
RESOLUTION HAS DEVELOPED IN MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL
BE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN TX. BUT WHERE IT DEVELOPS WILL DETERMINE
WHAT TYPE OF WEATHER WE WILL RECEIVE. IF THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA...STRONG SUPPORT ALOFT AND SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL MAKE
FOR A BUSY DAY MONDAY. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH...WE WILL
SEE EITHER A COLD HEAVY RAIN...AND IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN
PENETRATE THE COLUMN...WE WOULD EVEN SEE SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH.
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO AND FINE TUNE
DETAILS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH MOST
OF THE SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE CWA NOW. STILL SOME SCT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH BY 8Z HAS MOVED
THROUGH BTR AND MCB. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN BELOW
SVR LIMITS BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE AROUND THE OTHER
TERMINALS IN THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THE BIG ISSUE IS LOW
CIGS AND FOG. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH VISBIES WILL DROP TO AT
LEAST IFR STATUS AT TIMES AND COULD EVEN FALL TO AROUND 1/4SM AT
TIMES. CIGS WILL ALSO BE DOWN IN THE 100-300 FT RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT EVEN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CIGS WOULD ONLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 400-1000 FT UNTIL ALMOST 18Z. BY THAT TIME CIGS SHOULD REALLY
BE APPROACHING B/T 1500-2K FT AND CONTINUING TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
WITH ALL TAFS SITES ABV 2K FT BEFORE 00Z. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...FIRST THINGS FIRST WILL BE THE REDUCED VISBIES IN THE
INNER WATERS THIS MORNING. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
VISBIES WILL LIKELY DROP TO BELOW 1SM AT TIMES. WITH THAT A DENSE
FOG ADV FOR THE INNER WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES HAS BEEN ISSUED. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW
AND PICK UP AND THIS SHOULD MIX THINGS UP QUICKLY BRINGING VISBIES
BACK UP. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS STRONGEST WED THROUGH EARLY THU AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NRN GULF. A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE A SFC
LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN/SERN GULF AND THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN. WINDS COULD
GET INTO SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA. SEAS COULD ALSO APPROACH 8FT AT
TIMES. WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF LATE THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NRN GULF BUT THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVES AS ANOTHER GULF LOW TRIES
TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 38 57 37 / 10 0 20 50
BTR 65 40 58 38 / 10 0 20 50
ASD 67 41 58 39 / 20 0 10 50
MSY 67 45 58 42 / 20 0 10 50
GPT 67 41 60 39 / 40 0 10 50
PQL 67 41 60 39 / 40 0 10 50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST. CHARLES...ST.
HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-23-2010 06:44 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2010

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOULD START TO MOVE IN TO THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY 5 PM.
FROM THERE IT SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM
PASCAGOULA TO NEW ORLEANS. THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST AFTER DARK. AS THE MOISTURE IS LEAVING...SOME COLD AIR
ENTERS THE COLUMN ABOVE THE BL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD
EFFECTIVELY CHANGE THE LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
THE MOISTURE GETS A CHANCE TO LEAVE. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR THIS AND
LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE DECIDING ON A WSW
OR NOT. THIS WILL BE THE 4TH WINTRY PRECIP FOR OUR AREA THIS
WINTER SEASON. STARTING TO WONDER IF THE CONTINENTS HAVE DRIFTED
TOO FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TX EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE SE FROM THERE INTO THE GULF BY FRI EVENING.
THE PATH OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT. CURRENT THINKING
IS THE SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN FRI EVENING. IF SOME OF SE
LA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TS WILL ARRISE.

YET ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS NEAR BRN TX SUN NIGHT AND MOVES EAST.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONGER...STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING PLENTY
OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE LOW CLOUDS. BKN/OVC
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1K-1700FT THROUGH MID MORNING BUT
BY MIDDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE.
BY 19Z MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE IN VFR STATUS BUT BTR AND MCB COULD
STILL SEE BKN CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3K FT THROUGH THE AFTN AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVN AND MORE SO OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY ALL PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID
BUT BY 4-6Z MCB COULD START TO SEE -SN MIX IN WITH -SHRA AND SHOULD
ULTIMATELY COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO -SNSH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. BTR MAY ALSO SEE A MIX DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS BUT AT THIS
TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO TO COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND SFC LOWS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DEEP IN THE GULF
LATE TONIGHT WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT STRONG CAA AND SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCY CONDITIONS
LATE THIS EVN AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT 20-25KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTH TWRDS THE
REGION. WITH THAT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SCY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX SOME WED NIGHT AND
THU AS THE SFC HIGH FINALLY SITS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF FRI NIGHT
AND INTO SAT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN INTO SCY
CRITERIA AND COULD EVEN APPROACH GALE WARNINGS BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND
ON TRACK AND HOW STRONG THE THE SFC LOW WILL BE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AGAIN UNTIL A 3RD SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 36 51 27 / 30 70 20 0
BTR 59 37 54 29 / 20 70 20 0
ASD 59 37 53 28 / 10 70 50 0
MSY 59 41 52 34 / 10 70 50 0
GPT 60 39 53 28 / 10 70 50 0
PQL 60 39 54 28 / 10 70 50 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...NONE.

MS...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA
MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-24-2010 06:47 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO BE DECREASING WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FCAST. SOME SNOW THIS
MORNING WITH NO SURFACE PROBLEMS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE SPECIAL
WX STATEMENTS.

NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM NORTHERN TX BY FRI EVENING. ANY TS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE GULF AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SE LA COASTLINE WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

.LONG TERM...
THE THIRD MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
HOLD OFF ANY SEVERE WX BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR THE
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. ATTM IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN EVENT
AND ANY WINTRY MIX WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT CAN MOVE INTO THE MID TO LOWER PORTION OF THE SOUNDING.
CURRENT FCAST INVOLVING THE EXTENDED LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION..WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. AT 9Z TERMINALS
ARE RANGING FROM VFR AT MSY/GPT/PQL TO MVFR AT ASD/BTR/NEW AND IFR
AT MCB. RIGHT NOW THIS IS ALL DUE TO CIGS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
THE BIGGEST ISSUE AS PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
FROM WE CAN TELL HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS NRN/WRN LA AND CNTRL
MS. BTR AND MCB SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE IN BEFORE 12Z. MCB
WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX AND COULD EVEN SEE A COMPLETE TRANSITION OVER
TO SN AROUND 12Z AND THE THIS MAY REDUCE VISBIES TO 2-3SM BUT OTHER
THAN THAT CIGS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 900-1200FT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. AFTER THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE LIFTING TO AROUND 2500-3KFT AROUND 18Z. BTR MAY BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AND AGAIN IT MAY DROP VISBIES DOWN TO 3SM.
CIGS AT BTR WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE MCB. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY JUST SEE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. RA WILL BE LIGHT AND VISBIES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABV 3SM. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGER
ISSUE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. SITES THAT HAVEN`T DROPPED INTO MVFR
STATUS WILL DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND BY 12Z ALL TERMINALS
WILL HAVE CIGS AT LEAST BELOW 2K FT. MVFR CIGS WILL POSSIBLY PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z BUT SHOULD LIFT TO AROUND 2500-3K FT AFTERWARDS THEY
COULD RISE TO AROUND 3500 FT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT BY
THIS EVN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDDAY/LATE AFTN. THE COLD FRONT
WON`T NECESSARILY PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT SINCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OUT
OF THE NORTH BUT IS MAINLY MARKED BY THE BEGINNING OF THE COLD AIR.
ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH...STRONG CAA AND SFC PRESSURE RISES WILL TAKE
PLACE AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING FURTHER. CURRENTLY
WE ARE PROBABLY JUST UNDER SCY CONDITIONS SINCE THE COLD FRONT HAS
BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT GIVEN THE SCY IS ALREADY OUT
I WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO IT RIGHT NOW. WINDS SHOULD GET IN
THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LAKES ARE ALREADY SEEING WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 15KTS. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ALL DAY AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THAT I HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE SCY THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SEAS WILL PICK
UP AS WELL WITH THE OUTER WATERS LIKELY RANGING FROM 5-7 FT. WINDS
SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO RELAX MID/LATE THU MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE SFC HIGH
QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NRN GULF SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS AGAIN
FRI AND SAT. AFTER THAT ANOTHER MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ABOUT
GALE CONDITIONS. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 24 56 35 / 20 0 0 10
BTR 51 28 58 37 / 10 0 0 10
ASD 52 27 57 36 / 30 0 0 0
MSY 52 33 56 38 / 30 0 0 10
GPT 52 27 58 35 / 40 0 0 0
PQL 53 26 58 29 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

MS...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-25-2010 07:26 AM

DON`T SEE MANY OF THESE DAYS LATELY. WILL BE A CLEAR DAY WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AFTER A COOL START. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF NORTH TX STARTING FRI MORNING AND
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRI MIDNIGHT. AS IT MOVES
SE ANOTHER VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
LIFT TO SUPPORT A SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE DOWN BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CLOUDY RAINY SITUATION THROUGH ABOUT NOON
SAT EVEN WELL AFTER THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED EAST. ABOUT 36 HOURS OF
CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS WILL MOVE US THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THEN
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
THE WORST WEATHER WITH THIS SHOULD BE MONDAY EVENING. THERE
REMAINS MANY QUESTIONS ON THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS HANDLING THIS
SITUATION VERY WELL AND IS INITIALIZING THE BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING THE SFC LOW EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR THE COAST.
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND
EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC LOW TRAVELS.

.LONG TERM...
ONCE THE STRONG MON NIGHT SYSTEM MOVES PAST...WE WILL CLEAR OUT
AND COOL DOWN ONCE AGAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING BUT BY EARLY FRI MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO RETURN AS
A DISTURBANCE DROPS TWRDS ERN TX WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN GULF. THIS WILL CAUSE LL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ALLOWING STRATUS TO DEVELOP. THIS WOULD OCCUR RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAFS AND MAINLY ACROSS SRN LA AND THEN WORKING
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING FRI. LIGHT SHRA COULD RETURN DURING THE
DAY FRI. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS WE SPEAK AND
THIS IS CAUSING WINDS TO RELAX FINALLY. WINDS ARE PROBABLY
BORDERLINE SCY CRITERIA RIGHT NOW BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS SHOULD
FALL BELOW THE 20KT THRESHOLD. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN IN A RANGE OF
15-20 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY SO SCS HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED FROM 12Z TO
18Z OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVN LEADING TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
ONSHORE FLOW AGAIN AND SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRI. AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF IT WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN FRI NIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING FURTHER. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TWRDS THE
NERN GULF THERE WONT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAA BUT SFC PRESSURE
RISES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WHICH COULD WARRANT SCY HEADLINES AGAIN. THAT SAID THE NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE AND THIS COULD LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALE WARNINGS. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 32 59 41 / 0 0 40 60
BTR 58 36 57 42 / 0 0 50 80
ASD 56 35 58 44 / 0 0 40 80
MSY 54 38 58 46 / 0 0 40 80
GPT 54 32 56 44 / 0 0 30 70
PQL 54 30 56 44 / 0 0 30 70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASSUMPTION...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

MS...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-26-2010 06:49 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
LIFT AND BAROCLINICITY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. ISENTROPICALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS OVERRUNS A
COOLER AND MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL BRING A BROAD SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A CHANGE
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PARISHES AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF WET BULB COOLING IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND A COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECTING IN WITH THE MAIN CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS COLD POOL SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES
ALOFT INTO A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR SNOW FORMATION. IN ADDITION...THE
LOW LEVELS WILL SEE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL ONLY ASSIST IN A TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW LIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO
AN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE GFS...HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

INITIALLY....EXPECT THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A REGION OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG ASCENT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STRONG
LIFTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
GULF LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
THIS TIME. WITH STRONG OMEGA VALUES ALOFT AND DECENT ISENTROPIC
FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RIDES OVER A COOLER
AND MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY. AS THE
LOW STRENGTHENS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE PASSING THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION OVER
TO WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING AND
TYPE OF PRECIP ALONG WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AFTER THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NEGATIVE
VORTICITY AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD THEN TURN MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA BUT MID
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY. AT 08Z 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS WORKING NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN GULF. IF LATEST FCST
SNDGS ARE CORRECT THEN CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN ACROSS SCNTRL LA
BY 12Z AND SPREADING N AND E THROUGH THE DAY WITH GPT AND PQL BEING
THE LAST TO SEE LOW CLOUDS BUILD IN. THAT SAID ALL TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS WOULD ONLY BE
DOWN TO AROUND 3500-5K FT. BY 3Z LIGHT SHRA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
BOTH BTR AND MCB AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6Z. AS FOR
WINTRY PRECIP THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF -SN MIXING IN WITH RA
AROUND MCB AND EVEN BTR BEFORE 12Z. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...FIRST OF TWO GULF LOWS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS TO AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN WEST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A
GULF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NWRN GULF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS
AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER AROUND TO THE NW THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST
TWRDS THE ERN GULF. SCY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF SOME LATE SAT
AND SUN BUT BY MON WILL BE ON THE RISE ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER MUCH
STRONGER GULF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NWRN GULF LATE MON AND PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SCY
CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEEING WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. /CAB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 36 53 31 / 40 80 40 0
BTR 58 38 54 34 / 50 80 40 0
ASD 58 39 54 33 / 40 80 50 0
MSY 59 42 53 38 / 40 80 50 0
GPT 58 37 54 33 / 20 80 50 0
PQL 58 37 54 33 / 20 80 50 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-27-2010 06:04 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING...AS THE TROUGH AXIS PULLS
TO THE EAST...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AS
DRIER AIR ALSO ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. SINKING AIR BENEATH THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE HEADING INTO MONDAY...AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. ENHANCED LIFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE TROUGH BENEATH AN AREA OF DIFLUENT FLOW...COMBINED WITH A
SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG PVA ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE MID-LEVELS...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERRIDES A MORE STABLE WEDGE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE...ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND CONTINUED STRONG
FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE CWA. HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVENING...BUT AS THE LOW DEEPENS
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
MAIN COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND
CONTINUED AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO
A CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
THINKING...WITH FREEZE LEVELS FALLING BELOW 1500 FEET BY TUESDAY
MORNING IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.LONG TERM...

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PULL TO THE EAST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING HOLD OF THE GULF SOUTH. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS RUNNING A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER IMMEDIATE AREA WITH WRAP-AROUND
MVFR AND LOW END VFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO KBTR AND KMCB FROM NW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE FROM W-E WITH VFR CIGS LIFTING TO
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS MAINLY AFTER 18Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY CONDITIONS AS COOLER DRY AIR MOVES OVER COASTAL WATERS. SCA
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SETTLING TO MUCH LIGHTER
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GULF LOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SETTLED OVER WEST GULF TO BRING A DROP IN
WINDS AND SEAS LATER IN THE WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 34 62 37 / 20 0 0 0
BTR 58 35 63 39 / 20 0 0 10
ASD 57 34 61 37 / 40 0 0 0
MSY 57 40 60 45 / 30 0 0 0
GPT 57 34 60 39 / 40 0 0 0
PQL 57 34 60 37 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-28-2010 07:19 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...
A MILD AND NICE SUNDAY IS IN STORE AS MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST
GULF UNDER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS
UNDERWAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK
AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN...MAINLY SHOWING A TRACK JUST OFF THE
LA COAST TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY A COLD RAIN. HAVE
REMOVED WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A LIQUID. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
ONCE GULF LOW MOVES OUT OF AREA...WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE TO A RAIN
FREE AND COOL STRETCH OF DAYS AS POLAR COLD AIR MASS SETTLES OVER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLOWLY MODERATES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO THIS WINTERS` COOLER THAN
NORMAL RANGES WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE ALLUDING TO A STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM THAT MAY BE
A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE NATION AND GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO MONITOR TRENDS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. 32

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE
HIGH PULLS TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW.
HOWEVER... AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. STRONG THERMAL MIXING WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE STRONG WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF
COAST STATES. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 39 51 37 / 0 0 70 70
BTR 63 44 55 36 / 0 10 70 70
ASD 60 40 56 37 / 0 0 70 70
MSY 63 55 60 38 / 0 0 70 70
GPT 62 42 58 37 / 0 0 70 70
PQL 61 41 57 38 / 0 0 70 70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-01-2010 07:00 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
312 AM CST MON MAR 1 2010

.SHORT TERM...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE MATERIALIZING ALONG THE LOWER
TX COAST IN RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE TRANS-PECOS OF WEST TX AND SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION NEAR HOBBS NM. MEANWHILE...MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SE U.S. PROVIDING SOME DRAINAGE INTO LOCAL AREA WITH MARINE
LAYER AIR POISED JUST OFF THE COAST. AS GULF LOW MATURES THIS
MORNING MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. LARGE EXPANSE OF SHOWERS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RAINFALL
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCRP INTO TX PANHANDLE AND SPREADING TOWARDS
LA. RAINFALL LIKELY TO ONSET SHORTLY AFTER NOON TODAY AND BECOMING
WIDESPREAD STEADY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SYSTEM MOVING ALONG LA COAST
TONIGHT...CONTINUING EAST INTO FL TUESDAY. DESPITE COLD RAIN
EXPECTATIONS...IT DOES APPEAR THE COLUMN WILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH
TO FORGO ANY TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES IN THE SHORT
TERM.

AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY...SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA
NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES IN A 5% RISK FOR HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS IN THE EVENT BETTER SURFACE BASED AIR CAN ADVANCE
NORTHWARD ENOUGH BEFORE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE MS RIVER DELTA.
RISK SEEMS BETTER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT BUT THIS BOUNDARY MAY ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES
BRIEFLY. CURRENTLY...THE LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY
STRIKES WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER TX.

.LONG TERM...
GFS SHOWS A LENGTHY STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER WITH A CONTINUATION OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR BUT DIFFERS AT THE END WITH
MORE TROUGHING TO PORTEND A WETTER SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...JUST A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SET OF TAFS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES THIS MORNING...EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN LOWERING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KBTR AND KMSY BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER TO IFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KGPT...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THAN KMSY. WITH CURRENT TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST...WILL NOT CARRY
THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TAFS. AS LOW CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS REGION IN NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WESTERN GULF TO NEAR THE SW PASS MONDAY
EVENING. STRONG SE FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN STRENGTHENING SE
FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 6AM FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW HOURS TOO FAST. WILL
BRING UP EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIDAL LAKES.
ADVISORY WILL KICK IN AT 21Z FOR COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...AND AT 00Z FOR THE LAKES.

AS SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS POINT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25 TO
30 KNOT RANGE...SIMILAR TO 00Z NAM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR POTENTIAL SHORT PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP TROUGHING
ALLOWS SUBSTANTIAL MIXING TO SURFACE. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL RAPIDLY
BUILD TODAY AND SEAS TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LIKELY
BY EARLY TUESDAY IN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WIND AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES AND SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINS TO DOMINATE. ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE LOW. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 52 37 48 31 / 100 100 20 0
BTR 55 38 50 32 / 100 80 20 0
ASD 57 39 51 32 / 100 90 20 0
MSY 60 41 51 35 / 100 80 20 0
GPT 57 41 50 34 / 90 90 30 10
PQL 57 42 50 32 / 80 90 30 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-02-2010 06:32 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEFORMATION BAND ORIENTED ROUGHLY EAST-
WEST ALONG THE MS-LA STATE LINE BELOW TYLERTOWN. KMCB WENT TO SNOW
ALONG WITH A 5 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE THE RADAR INDICATED
SHALLOW MELTING BRIGHT BAND PASSED THROUGH. THE SNOW IS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED TO
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACT PROBLEMS. DUE TO SHORT DURATION EXPECTATIONS
AND LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL JUST HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS AND LEAVE OUT OF ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS A
LARGE DEGREE OF DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES INOT PANAMA CITY FL AREA.
LARGE SCALE DESCENT GENERATED WAKE DEPRESSION PHENOMENON LAST
EVENING AND STILL INDICATED IN TRAIL OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH GULF AND FL PANHANDLE. STRONG GRADIENT WIND TODAY SHOULD BE
STEADY STATE AND GUSTY BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DURING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME CLEARING
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...PREDOMINANTLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY MODERATES THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THOUGH TRENDING TO MILDER NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. NEXT RAIN SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COLD FRONTA PASSAGE PER GFS. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SIMILAR
SOLUTION BUT MORE DYNAMICS FARTHER SOUTH. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST AREAS CURRENTLY SEEING MVFR CIGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT ONES DURING THE DAY...BUT
TEMPORARY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT CURRENT REPORT OF
LIGHT SNOW AT KMCB TO BE EXTREMELY BRIEF AND NOT PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AND REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 35
&&

.MARINE...
BEEN A VERY INTERESTING NIGHT WITH CONVECTION AND WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT WINDS ARE NOT ONLY BELOW GALE LEVEL...BUT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL AS WELL. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...REDUCING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WHILE WE DO EXPECT
WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT ANY WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WILL BE INFREQUENT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE
HAVE LOWERED GALE WARNING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AS LOW MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. AFTER WINDS EASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...NO FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 46 32 55 30 / 30 0 0 0
BTR 49 33 57 32 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 50 33 56 31 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 49 35 55 36 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 51 33 55 32 / 30 0 0 0
PQL 50 32 55 31 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER ST. BERNARD...AND LOWER
TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-03-2010 06:52 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
307 AM CST WED MAR 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH
DAYBREAK TO IMPART A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY TODAY THAT SHOULD LAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO EXISTING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE. NO
REAL WEATHER ISSUES WITH FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEREBY ELONGATING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH TO
PROVIDE LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTEGRITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH...PARTICULARLY WITH COOL MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCES IN PLAY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL AREAS ALREADY VFR. CLEARING LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD...WITH
KMCB...KGPT AND KBTR LIKELY TO CLEAR NEAR OR BEFORE 12Z. KMSY MORE
LIKE ABOUT 14Z. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SC POSSIBLE AT KMSY DURING
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE TAFS WILL BE A WIND FORECAST. 35
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE EASED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKES AND INNER WATERS. WILL
HOLD ON TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
AROUND 18Z AS GRADIENT RELAXES. AFTER THAT...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 56 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 57 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 57 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 56 36 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 56 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 56 31 60 33 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.