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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-09-2010 07:20 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
508 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CLEAR
THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI COAST AND LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH BY MID
MORNING. LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
END THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A
RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY TOO...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL FALL THROUGH THE 40S WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES FALLING TO THE 30S. LATE TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES A
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZE IS EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. LOWS ON THE SOUTH SHORE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER...A BRIEF FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME COLDER LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
COAST...ALONG WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S.

WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AGAIN...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXPECTED PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME...COLD AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS/MEXICAN BORDER AREA ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW EXPECTED
TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THE 00Z GFS HAS THE WEAKEST 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ONE OF THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...AND THE ECMWF REMAINS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...BUT APPEARS TOO
HIGH WITH THE QPF ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND QPF.

NOW THE TRICKY PART...THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI ARE STILL VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY STARTING OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY
EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM MOST MODELS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ZERO...AND THAT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND POSSIBLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE UPPER FLORIDA PARISHES...NORTH
OF BATON ROUGE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TO THE SOUTH...METRO BATON ROUGE...THE NORTHSHORE...AND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE A
RAIN AND SLEET MIX TO START DUE TO WET BULB EFFECT...THEN MODEL
SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL BETWEEN SUPPORTING
ALL RAIN AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HAVE KEPT THE MIXED PRECIP
WORDING FOR NOW. ON THE SOUTHSHORE...MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END IN THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING AND
IN EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

AFTER PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD FOR PARADES IN THE EVENING. SATURDAY
WILL BE COOL BUT DRY FOR THE PARADES...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MONDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY...LUNDI GRAS AND MARDI GRAS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
TRAILING EDGE OF RAIN HAS ALREADY CLEARED THE KBTR AND KMCB
TERMINALS...AND WILL CLEAR KMSY BEFORE THE 12Z ISSUANCE. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF TS FROM TERMINALS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS BEHIND
THE RAIN. MODELS INDICATE DRYING SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CLOUD DECK BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT WESTERN
TERMINALS...AROUND SUNSET AT KGPT.

35
&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH AREA ON SCHEDULE. SEE NO REAL NEED TO
MESS WITH CURRENT STRUCTURE OF HEADLINES. EXPECT THAT LAKES WILL
TREND FROM ADVISORY TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING...THEN TO NO
HEADLINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADVISORY OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL
LIKELY GO TO EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN TO NO
HEADLINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ABOUT A 24 HOUR RESPITE UNTIL NEXT
LOW APPROACHES AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS A LITTLE LESS POWERFUL THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY...BUT STILL WORTHY OF ADVISORY...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT TO
REINVIGORATE THE WINDS AS WELL. UPSHOT IS THAT ANY PERIODS OF WINDS
NOT REQUIRING HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

35
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 47 27 49 31 / 10 0 0 10
BTR 49 29 51 33 / 10 0 0 20
ASD 51 29 51 32 / 30 0 0 10
MSY 51 33 49 36 / 20 0 0 20
GPT 56 29 51 30 / 40 0 0 10
PQL 56 28 51 30 / 50 0 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-10-2010 07:07 AM

Hazardous Weather Statement

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND SOME LIGHT SLEET MAY MIX IN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDORS. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS METROPOLITAN BATON
ROUGE...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE...AND AREAS JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. IF MORE SNOW THAN RAIN
FALLS...THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THESE AREAS TOO.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL HOLD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN THINGS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN BAJA. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW...A WIDE BELT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM WINDS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AREA AND SOUTHEAST STATES. YET ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ACCELERATE EAST NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST U.S./MEXICAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE EAST
AS A POTENT OPEN TROUGH...CROSSING TEXAS THURSDAY AND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS.

THERE ARE STILL SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODELS 00Z RUNS TODAY...EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE
MAINTAINING THEIR SAME BIAS FROM RUN TO RUN. ONE THING IS MANY OF
THEM CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NAM REMAINS SLOW AND FARTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH TIME WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTEST AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE SREF AND UKMET SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND NORTH OF THE NAM...AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN QUITE A
BIT NORTH AND BOTH SITUATED ONLY ABOUT 20 TO 30 MILES OFF THE
COAST SOUTH OF TERREBONNE PARISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PRESENTS QUITE A PROBLEM BECAUSE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WILL BRING
WARMER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND REDUCE THE CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WHILE A SOUTHERN TRACK SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE COLD AIR
FOR MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF
COUNTIES/PARISHES. HPC INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR
THEIR 4 INCH PLUS PROBABILITY AREA BEING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR DAYS 2 AND 3.

LOOKING AT FAVORED THICKNESSES AT SEVERAL LAYERS IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS...MOST OF THE AREA FALLS IN AN AREA BETWEEN 50 PERCENT
RAIN/SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN FROM A CROSS SECTION OF MODELS.
ALSO...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE PROGS SHOW THE ZERO LINE MEANDERING
NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NEAR THE WEST TO
EAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLS. THIS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST NOT MUCH
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF NUMEROUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING...AND THE TENDENCY FOR LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY SUB-ZERO WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SNOW AROUND
MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI. THE EXPECTED MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
TO BE SITUATED IN OR NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE 4
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING MCCOMB AND
TYLERTOWN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...POSSIBLY STARTING OUT WITH SLEET MIXED IN...DOWN TO AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INCLUDING BATON ROUGE...AND
ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD MEAN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR 2 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND EXPAND THE WATCH SOUTH IF FORECAST
CONDITIONS CHANGE.

AROUND THE SOUTH SHORE...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET MIX IN AT TIMES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
WORK WITH.

MONDAY/PRESIDENTS DAY/LUNDI GRAS AND TUESDAY/MARDI GRAS STILL LOOK
DRY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. WE WILL
SEE CIRRUS CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING INTO THE 10K FOOT RANGE AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. ANY WINTRY WEATHER AT TERMINALS...MAINLY KMCB OR
KBTR...WILL OCCUR AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON THURSDAY OR LATER. 35
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 12Z OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES AND INNER WATERS...BUT WILL MONITOR RIGHT UP TO
EXPIRATION TIME. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER THE ADVISORY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS BY NOON.

ABOUT A 24 HOUR RESPITE UNTIL NEXT LOW APPROACHES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORED THAN THE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SLOWER NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS. ANTICIPATE RETURN OF EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN WATERS...WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR
POSSIBLE GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION...IF ANY...BECOMES MOST ACCURATE DEPICTION OF SCENARIO.

EXPECT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT TO REINVIGORATE
THE WINDS AS WELL. UPSHOT IS THAT ANY PERIODS OF WINDS NOT REQUIRING
HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. 35
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 31 45 33 / 0 10 40 100
BTR 50 33 45 33 / 0 10 60 100
ASD 50 33 48 34 / 0 0 40 100
MSY 48 35 48 39 / 0 10 40 100
GPT 51 32 48 35 / 0 0 30 100
PQL 51 29 47 34 / 0 0 20 100

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-11-2010 07:30 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
607 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/MEXICO
BORDER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTH MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS TODAY AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW NOW NEAR THE SOUTH TIP OF TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET...EXTENDING FROM NORTH MEXICO TO THE MID SOUTH TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND PROVIDE STRONG LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE LIFT AS WELL AND INCREASE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE PREVIOUS THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED A LOT...THE NORTHERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES/PARISHES ALONG THE WEST TO EAST MISSISSIPPI/
LOUISIANA BORDER ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO TEMPERATURES PROFILES
MOSTLY RIGHT NEAR FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH AND A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 2 PM
FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 7 INCHES OR LOCALLY
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.

THINGS ARE NOT AS CLEAR CUT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR
IN LOUISIANA AND I-10 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM KBTR TO KASD TO KGPT...TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN TRENDING MORE TOWARDS SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
RAIN AT TIMES...FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT NOW
STARTING EARLIER AT 6 PM TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
AREAS WITH A RISK OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACCUMULATION BY LATE
MORNING FRIDAY/OUR LOCAL WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA/ TO UPGRADE
THIS TO A WARNING LATER THIS MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DID NOT WANT TO LOCK IN THE WARNING YET IN CASE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES WHICH MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER SOME OF THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND PARISHES. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD AND HAVE GONE
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT RATHER COLD WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

.LONG TERM...
THE MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER WITH TIME WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER A DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY/PRESIDENTS DAY/LUNDI GRAS WILL BE DRY BUT RATHER BRISK AS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY/MARDI GRAS WILL START OUT RATHER COLD WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AS MOISTURE
BECOMES DEEPER...CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN SOME TIME DURING THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON HOURS AT
BTR AND WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD. BASED ON MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS. AS TEMPS
COOL OVERNIGHT...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MCB WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z. BTR AND GPT SHOULD SEE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. MSY WILL BE THE WARMEST...AND
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

95/DM
&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS. DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...WILL KEEP
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND WILL MENTION
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
STRONGER WINDS...A GALE WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS ANOTHER
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

95/DM
&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 44 31 37 29 / 40 100 90 0
BTR 45 33 41 32 / 60 100 80 0
ASD 47 34 40 30 / 40 100 90 0
MSY 47 37 44 33 / 50 100 80 0
GPT 48 35 40 30 / 30 100 90 10
PQL 48 34 38 29 / 20 100 90 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST FELICIANA...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
HELENA...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...AND WEST FELICIANA.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...EAST BATON
ROUGE...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...ST. TAMMANY...AND WEST
BATON ROUGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS
TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.

MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HAN****...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS
TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-15-2010 07:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CST MON FEB 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH MIXTURE OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW ALONG
THE BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. DONT THINK FROZEN PRECIP WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER IN SOUTHERN MS.
COLD AIR DOESN/T SEEM TO BE PUSHING SOUTH QUITE FAST ENOUGH TO GET A
CHANGE OVER TO FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DRY AIR MOVES IN FOR AREAS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN INTERSTATE 12 TO SEE ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. THE
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING GOOD SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z OR
SHORTLY AFTER. LOOKING AT 11U-3.9 SATELLITE...LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS
EXIST BEHIND THE RAIN SHIELD SO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MOST
LIKELY BY NOON ACROSS THE CWA. STRONG CAA WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY
WHICH WILL LIMIT WARMING DESPITE CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AND SHOULD BE A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. COASTAL/SWRN MS AS WELL AS ADJACENT LA PARISHES WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT AND THE SOUTH SHORE TO THE COAST SHOULD
BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPT WILL BE WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING AND HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZING WARNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS BRINGING THE
CURRENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS FARTHEST SOUTHERLY
EXTENT AND WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500MB HTS AND THUS HIGHS ON TUES
WILL BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. A VERY WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF
PROLONGING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WENT WITH 0% CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW
WILL BUILD IN PAST MID WEEK AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS
TO BE QUITE WEAK AND QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE EVEN REACHING THE COAST.
DID KEEP SLGT CHNC POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL MUCH COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE QUITE
THICK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AT KMCB AND
KBTR...HOWEVER MORE LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT KMSY AND KGPT UNTIL
AROUND 11Z. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE EAST OF ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 14Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES. 11

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE TIDAL LAKES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS THROUGH 8 AM CST AND FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS UNTIL NOON
CST TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 46 27 52 28 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 49 29 54 30 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 48 28 52 29 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 49 33 53 33 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 49 28 51 29 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 50 27 51 27 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-16-2010 11:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
806 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2010

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A VERY DRY SOUNDING THIS
MORNING WITH A PW OF ONLY 0.20 INCHES. AN INVERSION IN PLACE
AROUND 900 MILLIBARS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUES TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2010/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND PUSHING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ON AVERAGE...CURRENT
TEMPS ARE ON TARGET WITH FORECAST. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN ARE STILL EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY WIND AND THEREFORE
ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. SITES WEST AND NORTH OF THE
LAKE ARE CALM AND THUS COOLER. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 20 TO THE NORTH AND AROUND 30 DEGREES ON
THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE TUES 00Z SOUNDING
WITH PRECIP WATER COMING IN AT 0.14 INCHES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING IN TODAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS TODAY WILL
MODERATE SOME TODAY TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO LAST NIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL BE RE-ISSUING FREEZE WARNING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS AND SOUTH OF DONALDSONVILLE. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY BORING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DAILY TEMPS. WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROUGH TO
THE EAST SLOWLY EDGES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THURSDAY THUS INCREASING HTS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR
NORMAL. FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS POINT WILL RESULT IN A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL FINALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN ROLLING IN MAINLY IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THEN. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL FINALLY RETURN
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH REACHES THE EAST COAST. STILL DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BUT ENOUGH TO HAVE MENTION OF SLGT TO
CHNC POPS SAT AND SUN.

EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS LACK OF
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW REACHING
THE GULF SOUTH ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
RATHER THAN STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED
LOW-END POPS AND NEAR CLIMO/MEX TEMPS UNTIL A CONSISTENT SOLUTION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. 11

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST. IN GENERAL...LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF DURING THE WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 27 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 52 30 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 50 29 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 51 33 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 49 29 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 49 27 54 28 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASSUMPTION...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-17-2010 08:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CST WED FEB 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MANY CHANGES EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY. A PLEASANT...
ALBEIT A LITTLE COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA WHILE IT EDGES EASTWARD. RESULTANT NWRLY WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FCST MAX TEMPS WERE DROPPED
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES. OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SKIRTING THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AGAIN.
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT LOWS COMING IN A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. DIDN/T REALLY HAVE TO MAKE ANY CHANGES ON THAT
FRONT B/C FORECAST LOWS WERE ALREADY COOLER THAN GUID. EXPECTING
SWRN MS TO DIP INTO THE HIGH MID 20S WITH THE FREEZING LINE ALONG
I-12 TO LAKE MAUREPAS AND THEN SOUTH TO AROUND CENTRAL LAFOURCHE
PARISH. SO...WILL BE RE-ISSUING FREEZE WARNING FOR ONE LAST NIGHT.
NEW ORLEANS METRO SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN SO WILL
EXCLUDE THEM FROM THE WARNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING OFF THE EAST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING
EASTWARD. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ABOUT
WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BY
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING TO
ONSHORE. COULD POSSIBLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN BUT NONE IN THE FORECAST QUITE
YET AS THE MAIN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SW FOR PRECIP TO REACH THIS AREA. BY THE OVER NIGHT HOURS
HOWEVER...COULD FINALLY BEGIN SEEING LIGHT RAIN IN THE COASTALS.

UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE ROCKIE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL START THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS/ERN NEW MX. SURFACE LOW WILL
RACE ACROSS TEXAS AND THEN THROUGH ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE... LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A
FASTER FROPA SOLUTION AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE
ECMWF. THIS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ON THE CWA DOORSTEP MONDAY AFTER
06Z. QPF OUTPUT OF MODELS ON THE FAIRLY LOW SIDE AT LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH SO DON/T HAVE TERRIBLY HIGH POPS. ONE CHANGE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO HAVE TSTMS AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE AS WELL AS THE NOSE OF A 150 KT JET NEARING THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. LLVL WINDS BARELY TOUCH
40 KNOTS WITH LESS THAN 30KTS OF SHEAR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY
INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY...
SHOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG.

ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH POSSIBLY A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR A DAY OR TWO LATER
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST. IN GENERAL...LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF DURING THE WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 52 26 61 31 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 53 29 62 36 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 53 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 53 34 60 38 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 53 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 53 30 60 32 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASSUMPTION...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-18-2010 07:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST THU FEB 18 2010

.SHORT TERM...
FINALLY GOING TO HAVE SOMEWHAT NOTICEABLE WARMING TODAY ALTHOUGH
STILL UNDER CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A GENERALLY 5
DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY WILL BRING HIGHS TO RIGHT AT 60
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS LATELY HAVEN/T HAD MUCH VARIATION FROM
ONE STATION TO THE NEXT SO THE FORECAST IS AS SUCH. IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA FINALLY EJECTING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
AND SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NEARLY CALM WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

NOT GOING TO SEE QUITE THE SAME RISE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AS HIGHS TO
DAY BUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER WILL BE COMMON. THIS SHOULD BRING THE
FREEZING LINE TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12 EAST OF
BATON ROUGE. SO...WILL BE THE END OF FREEZE WARNINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS WEEKEND FOR THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST
OF NEW ORLEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ON ITS EASTWARD TRACK FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN
REBOUNDING. HIGHS/LOWS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY TO A MORE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. AT SUCH A FAR
DISTANCE FROM THE CWA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
REACH THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS TO INTRUDE INTO THE AREA SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS 20% POPS
IN COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH
BUT MORE OR LESS DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SO...WILL
JUST KEEP SLGHT CHNC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT JUST SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA LAND AREAS.

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE WELL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS BY
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH MID
TO ALMOST UPPER 60S AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH HAVE 20PCT CHANCE
OF RAIN ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NOT SO CONFIDENT ON IT BEING REALIZED
AT LEAST IN THE DAYTIME. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SENDING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWA SUNDAY. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES OF
UP TO 1000J/KG...LI/S AROUND -3 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEARING
7C/KM. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A
GRADUALLY SATURATING COLUMN AND NO LAYERS OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING. SO
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...NOT LOOKING TOO PROMISING. MODELS
SUGGEST A DOUBLE BARREL TO ELONGATED SFC LOW WHICH IS NOT GOING
PROMOTE SVR DEVELOPMENT. BUT...COULD STILL HAVE SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. PRECIP WATER VALUES DONT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE
EITHER ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AT A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH...SO SHOULDN/T ME
MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WITH CWA FROPA
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY MID WEEK...ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL RACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
GFS JUST KEEPS THE AREA IN NW FLOW. NEITHER SOLUTION SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OVER THE AREA SO HAVE REMOVED MIDWEEK 40PCT POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME ONSHORE BY LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 60 29 64 39 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 59 33 64 47 / 0 0 10 10
ASD 58 32 62 42 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 61 38 63 47 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 60 31 64 41 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 60 29 63 38 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASSUMPTION...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-19-2010 06:28 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BE SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY. THUS...WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FLOW ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG...SO
WILL BE MORE OF A GRADUAL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S FAR
INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS
LARGE PLUME OF CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. WENT
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE DAY BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD THICKNESS AT TIMES. WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE
FAR WESTERN GULF HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. DID
KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST
OF WHATS CURRENTLY ON RADAR IS LIKELY MOSTLY VIRGA BASED ON DRYNESS
OF MOST RECENT SOUNDING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE COME VIGOROUS
ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY
REACH NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW TO MID 60S. MAV HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
SO STRAYED VERY LITTLE FROM IT. A LITTLE DIFFERENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS. WITH RISING DEWPOINTS FROM PERSISTENT SE WINDS AND CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTH...WILL BE HARD FOR TEMPS TO
FALL AS MUCH TONIGHT. SO...WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
THIS LENDS TO NEAR 40 IN SW AND COASTAL MS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
ALONG THE LA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ZONAL 500MB FLOW PATTERN ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN
TO MODIFY SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S WEST
OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE MILD RIDGING OVER THE GULF SOUTH
STATES. THE LOCAL RESULT WILL BE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. SERLY WINDS FROM THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF
WATERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT WARMING TO SOME DEGREE ALONG THE COAST. THE
SAME IDEA WILL BE EXAGGERATED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING HIGHS
INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S AND POSSIBLY ONLY AS LOW AS
60 SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A GOOD 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE SITUATION WHERE GUID IS NOT MAKING NOTE
OF STRONG SERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUDCOVER. MEANWHILE...MODELS
SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN WEST TEXAS AND QUICKLY TRACK
TOWARDS ARKANSAS. TIMING HAS CHANGED LITTLE ON THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
ONE CHANGE NOTICED THIS RUN IS THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SOLUTION. DIDN/T COMPLETELY THROW IT OUT BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS FAST
ON PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALONG IT AS WELL AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EACH
MODEL RUN LOOKS BETTER THAN THE NEXT FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL.
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LLVL
WINDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. LCLS WILL BE QUITE LOW SO MOST STORMS
SHOULD BE SURFACE BASED. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK BUT SPEED
SHEAR IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE....SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WET BULB TEMP OF LESS THAN 10KFT ALSO SUGGEST
THAT SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SH/TS WILL BE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
LITTLE IF ANY EVEN IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AFTER NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AFTN
AND TUESDAY. STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DISPARITY FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. THEY CANT SEEM TO DECIDE WHETHER A WEAK TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE NWRLY FLOW OR NOT. SO...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. FOR TEMPS...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THAT
WILL BE UNDER NWRLY FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY A COOLER PATTERN SO KEPT
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING CLOUD COVER OVER TAF
SITES MAINLY ABOVE 20KFT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE SATURDAY
MORNING. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MARINE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY
BECOME MODERATE LATE SATURDAY. DEEPENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND WINDS WILL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA MONDAY. WITH THE LOW PULLING
NORTHEAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT BUT SLOW MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUS WINDS MAY REACH THE LOWER LIMITS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 63 40 67 50 / 0 10 10 10
BTR 64 45 68 54 / 0 10 10 10
ASD 63 41 66 51 / 0 10 10 10
MSY 63 47 67 56 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 61 41 65 50 / 0 10 10 10
PQL 61 40 65 46 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-20-2010 06:42 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2010

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT FEELS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SFC LOW THAT WAS MOVING EAST WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BREAKS
DOWN. THIS WILL ALSO HELP DISLODGE THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM CAUSING IT TO FLOW NORTH AS WELL. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH THAT IT WILL PROVIDE SH/TS TO
THE AREA. THE FIRST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME WITH THE WARM
FRONT SUNDAY. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES...THE SHOWERS WILL DO THE
SAME BUT WE WILL THEN FALL INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE MAIN FRONT
FOR SUNDAY EVENING. OBVIOUSLY...THE MAJOR FACTOR HERE WILL BE THE
VERY ABNORMALLY COOL SHELF WATERS MODERATING THE AIR TEMPS AS GULF
AIR FLOWS OVER LAND AREAS(STABLE MARINE BL). IF THIS PROCESS WERE
OCCURRING AT NIGHT THINGS WOULD A LITTLE EASIER...BUT THE WARM
FRONT IS NORTH OF US DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALSO MODERATING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONNECTIVITY WITH THE SFC THERMAL PROPERTIES FOR
ONE OR TWO TS TO BECOME SFC BASED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MAIN LINE
OF SH/TS WHERE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL HELP LIFT MOISTURE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WHERE THE STRONG SW SUBTROP JET WILL PICK IT UP
AND BRING IT NE OVER OUR AREA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUEING THROUGH WED. BEEN LOOKING AT SOME SOUNDING PROFILES ON
THIS. COLD AIR IS STILL BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA AS THIS
MOISTURE IS MOVED OVER THE TOP. BUT CAN NOT FIND ANYTHING THAT
SAYS WINTRY PRECIP ATTM AND AM INCLINED TO LEAVE THE FCAST AS IS
WITH A COLD RAIN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WAS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WILL FINALLY WIN AND
CONTROL THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS IN LIGHT BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT
REMAIN ABOVE 3SM. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY 14-15Z...THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME VFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AIRPORTS SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AROUND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE 06Z THROUGH 12Z. 18

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT...AS A DEEPENING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS OUTER LEGS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
FLOW WILL WEAKEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN SURFACE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN
TAKES CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORCING
A FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT WINDS TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL PERMIT MORE THERMAL MIXING AND THUS ALLOW
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 43 65 54 / 0 20 40 70
BTR 68 46 67 56 / 0 20 40 70
ASD 65 45 65 59 / 0 20 20 70
MSY 66 52 68 60 / 0 20 20 70
GPT 65 46 64 60 / 0 20 20 70
PQL 65 44 64 59 / 0 20 20 70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM
SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-21-2010 07:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...
SOME SVR WX SITUATIONS ARE CLEAR CUT...NOT THIS ONE. A WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TS BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MORESO ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. RELATIVELY WEAK TO
MODERATE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT NORMALLY LEND TO LESS THAN
SVR TS ACTIVITY. BUT THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
TO GO SFC BASED BY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SVR TS. WILL GO WITH WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE HWO...MOSTLY
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SVR TS POSSIBLE SHOWING VARIABLES OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. CAN`T SAY THERE WILL BE NO
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS WEAK WITH AND ONLY
SHOWS UP TO 250 M2/S2 HELICITY VALUES FROM 0-3KM DEPTH. THIS VALUE
OFCOURSE CHANGES ALONG ANY BOUNDARY AND WE WILL SEE THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL INCREASE THIS VALUE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BASICALLY THE
ONLY PLACES IF ANY THAT A SPIN UP WOULD BE LOCATED WOULD BE ALONG
THESE BOUDARY ENVIRONMENTS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS LAGGING A BIT
AND FINALLY MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SW JET CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE AREA. THE SFC LOW
HELPS LIFT MOISTURE WELL INTO THE UPPER LEVELS WHERE THE JET CAN
GET ACCESS TO IT. THE JET THEN BRINGS AND DEPOSITS THIS MOISTURE
OVER TX LA AND MISS ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE QUESTION ON
EVERYONES MIND IS WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING AT THE TIME
WILL WE SEE SOME WINTRY MIX. THIS IS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE...THE
MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AS THE COLUMN FINALLY GETS TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDING THE COLD AIR...THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...IS ALSO FORCING THE MOISTURE
SHIELD SE. IF THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP
IT WILL BE ON THE VERY BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE ONGOING FCAST ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS
VERY LOW.

.LONG TERM...
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRI NEAR BRN. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF TX AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THE GULF LOW LOOKS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AND THROWS A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER COOL AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE GULF SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
OTHER THAN RAINFALL...NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOP
OVER TX STARTING SUNDAY. EVENTHOUGH THIS IS SEVEN PLUS DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND
THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE THE
SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT WILL WANT TO OCCLUDE AS IT IS MOVING
THROUGH AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A DEEP MOIST COLUMN AS
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS FOUND OVER THE DEEP GULF WHERE WARMER TEMPS
ARE LOCATED. WILL LEAVE THIS SCENARIO OUT OF HWO FOR NOW...BUT
ONLY BECAUSE IT FALLS OUTSIDE CURRENT FCAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THE NEXT 18 TO 30 HOURS AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. RADIATION FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KGPT AND
KPQL...AND HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO LIFR WILL CONTINUE
THERE DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GROUND AND WATER
TEMPERATURES...SO DEPENDENT ON MIXING...THERE COULD BE SOME
ADVECTION FOG AND LOW STRATUS LATER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
ADVECTION OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AROUND KBTR AND FROM KMCB TO KMSY AND
KGPT DURING THE EVENING. 18

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED A PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT DOES NOT SUPPORT SCA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLOSE ACROSS EAST
LEGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NO FLAGS WILL BE
ISSUED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS EAST LEGS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
THROUGH THURSDAY. ERGO...BRISK NORTH WINDS MAY CAUSE HAZARDS WITH
WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 53 59 35 / 40 70 10 0
BTR 68 54 61 38 / 40 70 10 0
ASD 66 56 66 38 / 20 70 20 0
MSY 68 56 65 44 / 20 70 20 0
GPT 64 56 67 39 / 20 70 40 0
PQL 64 57 67 38 / 20 70 40 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.