Hardcore Weather
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html)
+--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html)



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-20-2009 05:42 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1023MB HIGH OVER
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. NORTHEAST FLOW WAS NOTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST GULF. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE AXIS FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO EL PASO REGION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
THE HILLS. INITIAL PLANER FIELDS REVEALED DECREASING THETA-E
VALUES WITH HEIGHT OVER THE WEST GULF AND MUCH OF TEXAS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250 REVEALED THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF
100 TO 110 KNOTS AT THE BASE AND BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. ALL IN
ALL...AN ACTIVE 100 KNOT JET STREAM ACROSS MEXICO TO THE NORTH
GULF TO NORTH TEXAS. SHORT AND MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE WAVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
FROM ARKLATEX REGION TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW TRACK CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING REVEAL A
STRONG INVERSION FROM 900 TO 800MB AND THAT INVERSION STAYS IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL EXIST
ABOVE THIS LAYER FOR SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE/LOW WITH A 500MB TEMPS -14 TO POSSIBLY
-18C ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LAPSE RATE SUPPORTING THUNDER.
HOWEVER...WE NEED SURFACE BASE TEMPS IN THE 70S AND THAT AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LAND AREAS SATURDAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY OCCUR ON COASTAL WATERS. WILL CARRY ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY
BUT MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND ANOTHER DRY SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY...BOTH WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE OR LIGHT FOG AROUND
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KBTR. AS LOW MOVES FROM WESTERN GULF...WE
SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE THE COLUMN MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...09Z-12Z SATURDAY AT KBTR...AND BEYOND THAT
FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS. 35
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RATHER
JUMPY AS FAR AS CONTINUITY GOES. WIND GRIDS WERE AGAIN BASED ON 00Z
ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER DUE TO SPEED OF SYSTEM
MOVEMENT BEING MUCH QUICKER THAN OTHER MODELS. WIND SPEEDS ON GFS
ALSO APPEAR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN REALITY AT THIS POINT.

WE WILL NOT GET INTO EXERCISE CAUTION WIND SPEEDS UNTIL AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY...AND PROBABLY NOT INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN WATERS...UNTIL MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES NOW...BUT EXPECT BY THE 21Z PACKAGE TODAY...ADVISORIES
WILL PROBABLY NEED RAISED. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN PRETTY
QUICKLY SUNDAY. WINDS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT. 35

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 49 58 47 / 10 50 80 30
BTR 64 50 61 49 / 20 60 80 20
MSY 67 56 64 52 / 10 60 80 20
GPT 67 53 63 52 / 10 40 80 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-20-2009 09:22 AM

....


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-21-2009 06:15 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...AT 9Z THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CNTRL
TX COAST AND STILL WELL SW OF THE CWA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA ARE
MAKING THERE WAY NORTH ONTO THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL LA COAST. THERE IS
AN AREA OF TSRA WELL SOUTH OF THE LA COAST AND THESE WERE MAINLY
MOVING TO THE EAST. THE MID LVL DISTURBANCE WAS STILL BACK IN ERN TX

TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. EVEN THOUGH THE MDLS ARE WITHIN THE NOISE LVL
THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. LOOKING AT CURRENT
FEATURES...MSAS SHOWS BEST PRESSURE FALLS EAST TO ENE OF THE SFC LOW
ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WELL INTO THE GULF MOVING EAST.
THE GFES AND SREF ARE ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND WITH ALL OF
THIS I PREFER THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THAT SAID ANY DEVIATION
NORTH(EVEN BY JUST 50 MILES) WOULD MAKE A PRETTY GOOD DIFFERENCE IN
STRONG/SVR RISK. WITH THE TRACK EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST TODAY THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MAKING TODAY MORE OF A ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA SHRA DAY AND THIS SHOWS
UP REALLY WELL IN THE 290-300K LVLS FOR OUR CWA. WITH THAT SAID I
EXPECT THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA JUST OFF TO OUR SW TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL EVEN BE ISLTD TO
SCT TSRA EMBEDDED IN THIS ACTIVITY THANKS TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY(SHOWALTERS NEAR -3). AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS AREA WIDE
1-2" LOOK PRETTY GOOD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY TO LUCEDALE THIS AFTN. THIS
LOCATION LINES UP WELL WITH THE LFQ OF A 100KT SUBTROPICAL JET.

OUR SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ENE ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST AND
SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVN WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE SW WE COULD SEE RAIN
COME TO AN END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVN AS WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO GET DRY SLOTTED. BY TOMORROW MORNING LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY IN
OUR OUTER WATERS. SUNDAY MAY BE A DREARY COOL DAY AS THE MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TWRDS THE
TN VALLEY. THE LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD BIT OF LOW CLOUDS STILL. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. THERE AREA SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES B/T THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT OVERALL THE MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
YOUR TURKEY DAY IS LOOKING RATHER QUIET ALONG THE N-CNTRL GULF COAST
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH MAINLY JUST TIMING ISSUES I WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BEGIN QUIET BUT ANOTHER MOSTLY
DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SOMETIME TUE/TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. BY MON NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST WEST OF THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST TUE IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AGAIN THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA BUT IT
IS LOOKING LIKE SOMETIME TUE AFTN/EVN. NOW MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THANKS TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE SERN CONUS/NRN GULF. WITH THAT LOOK FOR ISLTD TO
WIDELY SCT SHRA MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS LOOK FOR
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S(NORTH TO SOUTH) AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MON AND TUE
AND THEN IN THE 60S BEHIND OUR FRONT ON WED.

YOUR TURKEY DAY LOOKS RATHER QUIET AND COOL. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BE ON THE WAY DOWN AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS THANKSGIVING MORNING WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S THANKS TO THE SFC HIGH STILL OFF TO OUR NW BUT
IF THE COOLER AIR IS A LITTLE FASTER THEN UPPER 30S WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NRN 3RD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SFC INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL AND DRY SIDE. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE...BEFORE LOWER CONDITIONS MOVE IN. CURRENT FORECAST MAY
ACTUALLY BE A TAD ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AS LOWER CEILINGS HAVE NOT
MOVED ON SHORE YET. ONCE CONDITIONS DO FALL BELOW VFR...THEY WILL
REMAIN AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING THUNDER IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. 35

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WINDS TODAY. MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
IN EXERCISE CAUTION WIND RANGES...BUT A FEW SITES OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS HAVE REACHED 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. SPLL1...SOUTH OF TERREBONNE
PARISH REPORTING 30 KNOTS...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH
ANEMOMETER AT 40 METERS...SO SURFACE WINDS LIKELY SOMEWHAT LESS.
GRADIENT FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE DAY...AND THIS IS SHOWN IN
MODEL WIND GRIDS. WILL CARRY SCA IN WESTERN WATERS...AND EXERCISE
CAUTION EAST AND TIDAL LAKES THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT THAT THE EXERCISE
CAUTION WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BY THE DAY
SHIFT.

ONCE CONDITIONS RELAX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO FLAGS EXPECTED BEFORE
MIDWEEK. AT THAT POINT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY ALLOW EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 49 60 48 / 100 80 10 10
BTR 58 50 62 48 / 100 40 10 10
MSY 62 53 64 51 / 100 50 10 10
GPT 60 52 65 51 / 100 80 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-21-2009 10:36 PM

............


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-22-2009 06:48 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...SFC LOW IS TAKING A MUCH SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH TRACK THAN EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID THE MID LVL
DISTURBANCE ACTUALLY DUG SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND ALL OF THE ACCENT HAS
SHIFTED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LEAVING MOST THE AREA
BASICALLY UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS WITH MIST AND LIGHT DRIZZLE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE BOTH THE SFC AND MID LVL SYSTEMS TO
SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST RESPECTIVELY OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVN/OVERNIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST DAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS...PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 5
DEGREES ALL DAY.

MON THROUGH TUE...WE WILL REMAIN QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SFC. WE WILL BASICALLY BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND B/T BOTH
THE POLAR JET AND SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH CLOUDS
OUT OF THE AREA AND WITH RATHER DRY LOW AND MID LVLS IN PLACE WE
WILL BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES MON THROUGH MIDDAY TUE BEFORE WE START TO
SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS MON
WILL BE AROUND 10-11C AT H925. COMBINE THAT WITH THE SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AND HIGHS MON SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREE WARMER. LL TEMPS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TUE AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING FRONT HIGHS TUE
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE NIGHT AND A COOL
AND DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. ALSO THIS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
OUR FIRST FREEZING TEMPS OF THE SEASON AT THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERALL SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FCST AND WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND SUPPORT
FROM THE GFES I WILL START OFF WITH THE GFS/MEX AND DEVIATE WHERE I
BELIEVE WE CAN MAKE IMPROVEMENTS.

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MDLS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEY ALL AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL LIMITED AND AS PREV
FCSTER MENTIONED WE ACTUALLY HAVE MOISTURE DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THIS I HAVE STUCK JUST WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV/MEX LATE TUE AFTN/OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.

THANKSGIVING...A QUIET AND COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR YOUR
TURKEY DAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL START TO DIG SOUTH OUT OF S-CNTRL
CANADA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GRT LAKES REGION BEFORE CARVING OUT
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS TWRDS OUR AREA WITH CAA BEGINNING OVER OUR
CWA. LOWS THAT MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. OTHER
THAN THAT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY PROVIDING A NICE COOL...DRY...AND SUNNY
DAY.

FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE COULD FINALLY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS TOUCH THE FREEZING POINT FRI AND SAT MORNINGS(BEST CHANCE
WILL BE SAT MORNING). THE DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER NWRLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THAT COLDER AIR
MASS FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THU NIGHT WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG CAA REGIME AND THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS DROP NICELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOW DUE TO CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH BEING OFF TO OUR WEST AND THE STRONG CAA...WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WOULDN`T PROMOTE TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT BUT WITH A PURELY CAA SCENARIO SETTING UP WE COULD
OVERACHIEVE AND SEE TEMPS APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NRN 3RD OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. DUE TO THAT I HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 DEGREES BELOW MEX FRI MORNING BUT KEEPS EVERYONE
ABV FREEZING STILL. NOW ON FRI NIGHT THINGS WILL BE A TAD DIFFERENT.
FIRST OFF HIGHS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A LITTLE OF A HEAD START AS WE
HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. SECOND THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION THUS PROVIDING CALM WINDS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL. IF ALL
OF THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MDLS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THEN IT SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.
SINCE THIS IS ACTUALLY DAY 6 THE MEX LOOKS LIKE IT IS HIGHLY
UNDERESTIMATING AND TRYING TO GO CLOSER TO CLIMO. DUE TO THAT AND
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND THE GFES I HAVE
GONE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUI AND THIS MAY STILL NOT BE NEARLY
ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE ANYONE AT FREEZING YET BUT IF THE
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS THEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS DROP
TO OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. DURING THE DAY SAT THE SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD START TO MODERATE OUR AIRMASS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...CURRENT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND BECOME PREVALENT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY...BUT VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED MUCH
BEFORE 23/06Z. AT THAT POINT...WITH LIGHT WINDS...VSBYS MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS FINALLY EASING SOMEWHAT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. ALL MAIN
OBSERVING SITES BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SPLL1...WHICH IS AT 22
KNOTS. THIS WIND OB IS AT 40 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO SURFACE
WINDS LIKELY BELOW THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD. WILL DROP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BUT KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH 18Z. WILL DROP HEADLINE
FROM TIDAL LAKES. AS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL...DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
PICK BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. NO FURTHER FLAGS ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 47 69 47 / 20 10 0 10
BTR 64 46 71 49 / 10 10 0 10
MSY 68 52 70 52 / 10 10 0 10
GPT 65 50 70 49 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-23-2009 07:19 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.

LOCALLY...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND SHOULD ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE WHY...BUT
THE NAM IS CARRYING 60 TO 70 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EVEN THOUGH IT FORECASTS NO ACTUAL
QPF. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH FORECAST A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS. WITH LITTLE TO NO RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY
STILL OVERDONE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
A REINFORCING HIGH WILL BRING COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. EXPECT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH OF THE TIDAL
LAKES. HIGH SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. THE MODELS TYPICALLY TEND TO UNDER FORECAST THE
AMOUNT OF COOLING IN THIS KIND OF SITUATION...SO WILL UNDERCUT
MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. THE RESULT IS A FORECAST FOR NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HRS. MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 300 AND 1K FT BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AROUND 15Z.
AFTER 15Z ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FINALLY EXPECTED AROUND 18Z. VISBIES WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LIGHT FG AND BR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
ALSO AS CIGS FALL THEY COULD TEMPORARILY DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND CAUSING VISBIES OF 1/2-1SM TO OCCUR. VISBIES SHOULD IMPROVE
TO ABV 6SM BY 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. LATE TUE A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SAME A WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP SOME WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED WED. STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SHOULD
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRI LEADING TO OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THAT TIME. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THANKSGIVING DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE
CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
AND SMALL CRAFT ADV MAY BE NECESSARY THU AND THU NIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO REDEVELOP SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MORE TWRDS THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 20
BTR 70 50 73 50 / 0 0 20 20
MSY 69 54 72 54 / 0 0 10 20
GPT 66 50 71 52 / 0 0 10 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-24-2009 06:35 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.

LOCALLY...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR UNTIL 9 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE IS THAT I HAVE REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND AREAS. WITH NO REAL RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE LOW
LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB OR ABOUT 6 KFT. ADDITIONALLY...
THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. SO WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT I DIDN/T FEEL IT
NECESSARY TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. WE SHOULD JUST SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. THIS
INITIAL SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...EXPECT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
BY THURSDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA....BRINGING A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE
AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 60S. AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS REPRESENTS A TIMING CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHICH INCLUDED THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THIS IN TURN ALSO RESULTS IN THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD A
LITTLE FASTER AND ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE RADIATIVE COOLING WILL
STILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION
AND A SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
THE GFS REPRESENTS THE STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE
SOLUTIONS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. WHILE THE REAL SOLUTION PROBABLY LIES IN BETWEEN...HAVE
GENERALLY HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS AS IT IS MORE IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE FROM HPC.

&&

.AVIATION...BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IN THE FIRST 4-6HRS. BOTH
REDUCED VISBIES AND LOWERED CIGS WILL OCCUR AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. FG AND BR HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT MOST SITES WITH
CIGS QUICKLY STARTING TO FOLLOW SUIT. MSY...NEW...AND GPT MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE IN MVFR AND EVEN VFR STATUS THANKS TO CIRRUS
INVADING EXTREME SE LA FROM THE GULF. BTR/MCB/HDC AND EVEN ASD
TEMPORARILY WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. ONCE
EVERYONE MOVES INTO VFR STATUS LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTN/EVN AND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THERE IS A VERY
SLIM CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TWO. THE ONLY OTHER
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE WINDS VEERING AROUND
TO THE NW AFTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT B/T 21Z AND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONT THIS EVN. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF TODAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SLOWLY PICK UP TODAY BUT THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LOOK FOR BREEZY NW WINDS POSSIBLY LEADING TO EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE A BIGGER
ISSUE LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING AND OVERNIGHT HEADING INTO
FRI. A SECOND...STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL TAKE PLACE THEN
AND WITH STRONG CAA THIS SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS JUST
ABV THE SFC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SOME
TIME LATE THU AFTN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA FRI BRINGING WINDS AND SEAS BACK DOWN.
BY SUN THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW ONSHORE TO REDEVELOP. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AND THIS COULD BE A STRONG ONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 45 64 39 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 72 47 66 41 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 70 53 66 47 / 10 10 0 0
GPT 69 50 68 44 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...POINTE COUPEE...ST. HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...
TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
FELICIANA.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...
WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-25-2009 07:27 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS
NOW MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER STRONG PULSE OF COLD DRY AIR
WILL MOVING VERY FAST TOWARD THE AREA. CURRENTLY THIS SECONDARY
SURGE IS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY EARLY THU MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A NICE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY OR MON. THIS ONE LOOKS
TO HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF THERMAL AND JET LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE MODEL USED HERE IS THE GFS. THE ETA IS A LITTLE WEAK
WITH THE 00Z SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AND THE ECMWF IS WAY TOO STRONG. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING 20KT STRONGER WINDS THAT WHAT THE NASHVILLE UA
SOUNDING SHOWS AT 300MB. THAT IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT GREATER AT
THAT LEVEL. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE TROUGH PULLING OUT QUICKER
SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH OUT ROUGHLY 6 HRS LATER. THIS SAME SOLUTION BRINGS A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. ATTM
WE CAN ONLY SAY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. STRONG
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY BUT NUMBERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. LOCAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE
CONCENTRATED AND MESHED OVER JUST THIS AREA OF THE GULF COAST ARE
SHOWING LOW END TS STRENGTH NUMBERS. IN DIRECT CONTRAST...THE
LOCALIZED SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY COLD AIR AND SOME MIX OF
PRECIP BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY TUE...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST
PORTION OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION IS KNOWN
ON THIS SYSTEM TO CONFIRM ITS SEVERE OR WINTER WX POTENTIAL AND
THESE VARIABLES WILL BE IRONED OUT AS MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
EVALUTATED.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. WITH THAT ALL SITES ARE IN VFR STATUS AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE FCST. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH SKC IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NNW-N THROUGH FRI MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS HAVE YET TO REALLY COME UP ON THE BACK SIDE BUT I AM
STILL EXPECTING SCS HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
AIR AND THUS STRONGER WINDS. CAA WILL BE DECENT IN THE LL AND THIS
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABV THE
SFC. WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING DURING THE
LATE AFTN HRS AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
QUICKLY RELAX FRI MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. SCY`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THU AFTN/EVN WITH SCS HEADLINES
LIKELY AS EARLY AS THU MORNING. FRI AND SAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOW AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN SUN AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST PAST SUN NIGHT BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WITH IT STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS TO THE AREA AGAIN. COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD ALSO
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. AGAIN THIS IS 6-7 DAYS OUT AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 39 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 66 41 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 66 47 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 68 44 65 35 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-26-2009 07:35 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN SUITES ARE INITIALIZING VERY WELL THIS
MORNING AND COINCIDENTALLY...THEY ARE SHOWING THE SAME SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER LINEAR TROUGH WILL SHEAR AS
IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW BACK
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERN EXTENTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
BUT THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL WITH TIME NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF DUE TO THE STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND MOVES NE ALONG
THE OLD BOUNDARY CROSSING INTO SE LA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE PURSUIT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER EAST
TX WED MORNING AND MOVES ENE INTO THE KENTUCKY AREA BY WED EVENING
AS IT WILL OPEN UP INTO AN EVEN STRONGER AND EXTENSIVE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MOVE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME TS ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SEVERITY NOT
EXPECTED. ONCE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE
NIGHT NUMBERS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
SEVERITY BUT ONCE ACROSS THE FRONTAL AXIS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THIS
CHANGES. OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHO GETS SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE SFC LOW TRACKS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SE MOST
AREA OF LA (SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH)ATTM. SEVERE WX
NUMBERS ARE MUCH BETTER OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A COLD RAIN LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND
WED MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IF
ANY MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS...IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW
MOVES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. WILL WATCH FOR THIS MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVU CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
NEXT SHOT AT LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BRING SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO
REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE INTO LA/MS MONDAY.
24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS LIKELY TO STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE
DAY AND CLEARLY IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES RE-ENFORCED LATER TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN WIND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND TURNING ONSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A HEAD`S UP...MODELS IN THE LONGER RANGE SHOW A
SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING GALE CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR CONSISTENCY. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 59 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 61 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 62 39 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 63 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 11-27-2009 09:32 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO COME INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES EAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE MAIN STREAM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THROUGH
THE COUNTRY AT A GOOD CLIP AS A CUT OFF LOW REPLACES THE WEAK LOW
ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA
(RESEMBLING CONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION). BUT INSTEAD OF STAYING
OVER THE DEEP SW...THE PAC RIDGE MOVES IN FORCING THE UPPER LOW
EASTWARD. THE FIRST WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATE
WITH THE FIRST PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MON. THE FRONT SHOULD
WEAKEN AND SLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH DUE TO WINDS BECOMING MORE
UNIFORM WITH HEIGHT AND PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY. BUT ENOUGH COLD DRY
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AREA TO CAUSE STRONG BAROCLINICITY
PROVIDING THE MECHANISM NECESSARY FOR A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM
TUE. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED AND STRENGHTEN
WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER LENDING SUPPORT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PHASES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER LARGER UPPER TROUGH...THE
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCLUDE BECOMING A PROBLEM
FROM THE EAST COAST BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT PULLS
OUT...CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH BY THU
AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDES A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH AS WELL.

TS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE FRONT MON AND MON NIGHT. SOME TS
NEAR THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TUE
INTO WED. BUT THE OVERWHELMING MOJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A COLD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE SAME PERIOD.
THIS OFCOURSE ALL DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.
STRONGEST WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO STEADILY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CAVOK NEXT 24-30 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-MORNING AS
AIR COLUMN WARMS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. RELATIVELY LOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING WITH
ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME ENHANCED FURTHER IF LOW
PRESSURE INDICATED IN MODELS DEVELOP IN THE WEST GULF DURING THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 37 66 48 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 62 40 66 50 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 62 44 67 53 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 61 37 66 50 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST
FELICIANA...ST. HELENA...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...AND WEST FELICIANA.

MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.