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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-13-2009 05:39 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SAME SONG DIFFERENT VERSE. KIND OF EASY TO PICK OUT THE FRONT
WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE GROUND BY LOOKING FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ALONG THE MISS COAST AND COMES INLAND AT LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
SNAKING ITS WAY NW TO BTR AND UP TO AEX THEN TO SHV. THIS IS WHERE
IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT NOON. A STRONG IMPULSE CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE WILL FORM A SFC LOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONTAL AXIS. PRESSURE FALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF IT WILL
CAUSE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO MOVE TO THE NE AS A WARM FRONT.
AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE DAY WED...GENTLE PRES RISES
BEHIND THE FEATURE WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AGAIN WHERE IT
WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY WED NIGHT. BY THU MORNING
THE WEATHER MAP WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE IT DOES THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
(THE MAIN SFC LOW) WILL MOVE EAST RATHER QUICKLY THU BUT THIS TIME
STRONG FORCING FROM THE NORTH WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
CAUSING IT TO MOVE WELL OUT INTO THE GULF WHERE IT WILL SLOW AS IT
FEELS ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY COOL AIR SAT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE QUITE A BIT THU THROUGH SAT.

.LONG TERM...
SUN THROUGH MON IS LOOKING NICE BUT SOON AFTER RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FG HAS DEVELOPED AT BTR DUE TO AREAL RAIN YESTERDAY AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 9AM. EXPECT VLIFR CIGS AND VIS DURING
THIS TIME. OTHER TERMINALS WILL STILL HAVE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS
SWRN LA. PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AS THE
STALLED FRONT NEAR THE LA/GULF COAST RETREATS BACK NORTH AGAIN
TODAY. SHOWERS COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BEFORE 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTN. A THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE QUITE HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SERLY DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE BELOW
10KTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ON A DOWNWARD TREND TO AROUND 10 KTS
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES. COLD FRONT DID END UP SAGGING
BACK SOUTH YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE LA COAST.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AGAIN
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS LAND
AREAS...STILL EXPECTED SH/TS TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SAME
SPEED TODAY BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE EAST TO SERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING SWRLY AS A
RESULT OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY
TIGHTEN THURSDAY AND COULD HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN
COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BLOW THROUGH
THURS NIGHT. A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING DURING THIS
TIME AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
24 HRS.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 72 84 69 / 80 50 80 40
BTR 87 74 85 73 / 80 40 80 30
MSY 86 76 86 76 / 60 40 80 30
GPT 84 74 84 70 / 60 40 70 30


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-14-2009 05:22 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX OVER THE AREA IS SHOWING
UP AS A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. THE WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING THROUGH SE COASTAL ALA INTO PENSACOLA WHILE THE COLD FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL MISS COUNTIES BACK THROUGH LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. AT THE APPEX WHERE THE SFC LOW WOULD BE IS THE
STRONGEST OF ALL THE CONVECTION AND SEVERAL TOR WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED ON THAT CELL BY 3AM. QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR RETURNS AS
THIS CELL WENT RAMBLING THROUGH NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONTAL SECTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
GO STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING SH/TS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE BOUNDARY MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO
THU MORNING.

THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL ACT A LOT LIKE THE ONE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT WILL HAVE BETTER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT UPSTAIRS. THU MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. BY THU
EVENING WE WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
TS DEVELPING WHERE THE APPEX OF THE WARM AND COLD FRONT COME
TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE IF NOT OVER OUR AREA. THE AREA
OF TS SHOULD BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF. WILL MENTION SEVERE TS WORDING IN THE
HWO FOR THIS SYSTEM MAINLY FOR THU. SOME STRONG ACTIVITY COULD BE
SEEN TODAY BUT MOST SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT.
THIS WILL BE BETTER REALIZED OVER THE LAKES AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. FRI NIGHT WILL SEE A WEAKENING OF THESE WINDS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD JUST AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURGE OF DRY COLD
AIR. THE SECOND SURGE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
BRINGING WITH IT THE STRONGEST CAA/DAA AND WIND SPEEDS SAT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LAY SUN BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY.

.LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
FCAST BY TUE WITH SH/TS BY MID WEEK AND THE PROMISE OF ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT THU...WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SH/TS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS AGAIN TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH ANY PARTICULAR CELL. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG SHOULD OCCUR
AGAIN THU MORNING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA. MSY SHOULD SEE THE LEAST REDUCTION IN VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THU. WSW WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
THU. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT CAUTION HEADLINES OVER AT LEAST THE
GULF WATERS. FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...A STRONG TO
SEVERE COMPLEX OF TS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. STRONG WINDS OF
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE WINDS OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME TS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRI MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD DRY AIR MOVES THROUGH SAT
MORNING BRINGING EVEN STRONGER WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS ON THE
LAKES AND AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

MARINE FLAG EXPECTATIONS:
CAUTION BOTH LAKES AND GULF WATERS THU
ADVISORY BOTH LAKES AND GULF WATERS THU NIGHT-FRI
CAUTION FOR THE LAKES AND ADVISORY FOR GULF FRI NIGHT
ADVISORY FOR LAKES AND GULF WATERS SAT-SUN


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 69 84 55 / 60 20 60 30
BTR 86 72 86 59 / 60 20 60 30
MSY 87 76 87 65 / 60 20 60 40
GPT 87 72 86 60 / 60 20 60 40


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-15-2009 06:03 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
601 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...MAINLY WEST OF NEW ORLEANS WHERE KMSY
REPORTED 1/4 MILE FOR ABOUT ONE HOUR. KMSY JUST IMPROVED TO 3/4
MILE VISIBILITY. TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO SHOW THE FOG AROUND METAIRIE
AND KENNER...BUT USERS OF THESE CAMERAS ARE REMINDED THAT
VISIBILITIES CAN APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY EXPERIENCED BY
MOTORISTS ON THE ROADS AND REPORTED BY OFFICIAL CERTIFIED OBSERVERS.
THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE DENSE FOG
PRECLUDES ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT. REFER TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCT AND SOON TO BE ISSUED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO MARINE ISSUES
RELATED TO STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVES OUT A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SEVERAL PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO LOCAL TRAINING OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING
STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.

MAV AND MET TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUDS/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT MAY BE A LITTLE PAST THE TIME OF BEST
HEATING EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHT TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR 50 TO
100 MILES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY INFLOW AND
BULK SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LARGER SCALE LIFTING
SHOULD BE SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE TIDAL LAKES. STORM MOTION AND PROPAGATION VECTORS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BACK-BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE LINE SHOULD
BE MOVING WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED 2 TO 3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD.

THE SEVERE THREAT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CHARGES
TOWARDS THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY WILL END QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...THEN MUCH DRIER
AIR AND COOLER AIR...AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED FOR LOWS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND IN COASTAL
SECTIONS AND NORTH WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S
WITH A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATO-CUMULUS. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF WINTER
AVERAGES DOWN IN THE 40S OVER MOST AREAS. THE ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER KBTR AND
KMCB. AM NOT FORECASTING THAT COLD YET...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THAT TREND HOLDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND STILL COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL WILL BE BACK TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY
STRONG UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WOULD PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS IT GETS CLOSER.

22/TD

AVIATION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING
FOR BTR AND MCB. MCB VIS HAS COME UP SOME LATELY BUT SHOULD DROP
BACK DOWN W/IN AN HOUR OR TWO. BTR STILL HAS P6SM VIS DUE TO WINDS
NOT GOING CALM. IF THIS DOESN/T OCCUR...THEN FG WON/T DEVELOP. BUT
THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL STILL BECOME CALM BEFORE SUNRISE AND VIS
WILL DROP TO AROUND LIFR IF NOT WORSE. MSY AND GPT LOOK TO BE IN
BETTER SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VIS AND CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BUT STILL HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW TO HAVE IN TAFS EXCEPT MCB LATER
IN THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A POSSIBLY STRONG LINE OF
STORMS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
NOT TOO MANY ISSUES FOR THE COASTALS TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SW AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE SE AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR AND WINDS WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP IN RESPONSE
TO THIS. SHOULD START TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AT THIS TIME. FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE FRI MORNING AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE. ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS. THE
INITIAL PEAK OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. A LULL
POSSIBLY BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION WILL TAKE PLACE SAT MORNING UNTIL
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY SURGE WHICH WILL BE
STRONGER WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COULD SEE WINDS SUSTAINED NOT TOO MUCH LOWER THAN GALE FORCE
WINDS(AROUND 30KTS) IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEA SFC TEMPS ARE STILL
QUITE WARM AND THE MUCH COOLER AIR TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GOOD
INSTABILITY/MIXING. GUSTS ABOVE GALE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE AND 3 TO 5 KTS LESS
THAN THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT
WEEK AND WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT BY BECOMING MORE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SE.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 60 71 46 / 60 70 10 0
BTR 88 63 73 47 / 40 70 10 0
MSY 88 69 75 55 / 30 70 20 0
GPT 87 65 75 48 / 40 70 20 0


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-15-2009 01:38 PM

Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 151732 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.UPDATE...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...SOME OUTFLOW INDUCED CONVECTION MAY IMPACT KMCB AFTER
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP TO SHOW
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 21-01Z. OUTSIDE OF
THIS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE THROUGH 03Z AT KMCB. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KMCB AFTER 03Z...WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAJOR IMPACTS WILL BE AROUND 06Z...AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THIS SAME SQUALL LINE WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE SOUTH...AFFECTING KBTR AROUND 08Z...AND THEN KGPT AND
KMSY AROUND 10Z. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE AND FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY DRY
OUT THE LOW LEVELS AFTER 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 15Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTH...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 12 KNOTS AT KGPT AND
KMSY. 32


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009/

UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND FAIRLY
UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE TODAY ALTHOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AS WE HAVE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND THE WET BULB
ZERO AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED.

98/SO

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009/

UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...MAINLY WEST OF NEW ORLEANS WHERE KMSY
REPORTED 1/4 MILE FOR ABOUT ONE HOUR. KMSY JUST IMPROVED TO 3/4
MILE VISIBILITY. TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO SHOW THE FOG AROUND METAIRIE
AND KENNER...BUT USERS OF THESE CAMERAS ARE REMINDED THAT
VISIBILITIES CAN APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY EXPERIENCED BY
MOTORISTS ON THE ROADS AND REPORTED BY OFFICIAL CERTIFIED OBSERVERS.
THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE DENSE FOG
PRECLUDES ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT. REFER TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCT AND SOON TO BE ISSUED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO MARINE ISSUES
RELATED TO STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CARVES OUT A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SEVERAL PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO LOCAL TRAINING OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING
STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.

MAV AND MET TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUDS/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT MAY BE A LITTLE PAST THE TIME OF BEST
HEATING EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHT TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR 50 TO
100 MILES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY INFLOW AND
BULK SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LARGER SCALE LIFTING
SHOULD BE SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE TIDAL LAKES. STORM MOTION AND PROPAGATION VECTORS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BACK-BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE LINE SHOULD
BE MOVING WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED 2 TO 3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD.

THE SEVERE THREAT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CHARGES
TOWARDS THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY WILL END QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...THEN MUCH DRIER
AIR AND COOLER AIR...AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE RULE.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED FOR LOWS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND IN COASTAL
SECTIONS AND NORTH WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S
WITH A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATO-CUMULUS. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF WINTER
AVERAGES DOWN IN THE 40S OVER MOST AREAS. THE ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER KBTR AND
KMCB. AM NOT FORECASTING THAT COLD YET...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THAT TREND HOLDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND STILL COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL WILL BE BACK TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY
STRONG UPPER LOW AND TROUGH THAT WOULD PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS IT GETS CLOSER.

22/TD

AVIATION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING
FOR BTR AND MCB. MCB VIS HAS COME UP SOME LATELY BUT SHOULD DROP
BACK DOWN W/IN AN HOUR OR TWO. BTR STILL HAS P6SM VIS DUE TO WINDS
NOT GOING CALM. IF THIS DOESN/T OCCUR...THEN FG WON/T DEVELOP. BUT
THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL STILL BECOME CALM BEFORE SUNRISE AND VIS
WILL DROP TO AROUND LIFR IF NOT WORSE. MSY AND GPT LOOK TO BE IN
BETTER SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VIS AND CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BUT STILL HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW TO HAVE IN TAFS EXCEPT MCB LATER
IN THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A POSSIBLY STRONG LINE OF
STORMS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
NOT TOO MANY ISSUES FOR THE COASTALS TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SW AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE SE AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR AND WINDS WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP IN RESPONSE
TO THIS. SHOULD START TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AT THIS TIME. FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE FRI MORNING AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE. ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS. THE
INITIAL PEAK OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. A LULL
POSSIBLY BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION WILL TAKE PLACE SAT MORNING UNTIL
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY SURGE WHICH WILL BE
STRONGER WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COULD SEE WINDS SUSTAINED NOT TOO MUCH LOWER THAN GALE FORCE
WINDS(AROUND 30KTS) IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEA SFC TEMPS ARE STILL
QUITE WARM AND THE MUCH COOLER AIR TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GOOD
INSTABILITY/MIXING. GUSTS ABOVE GALE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE AND 3 TO 5 KTS LESS
THAN THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD NEXT
WEEK AND WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT BY BECOMING MORE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SE.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 60 71 46 / 60 70 10 0
BTR 88 63 73 47 / 40 70 10 0
MSY 88 69 75 55 / 30 70 20 0
GPT 87 65 75 48 / 40 70 20 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-16-2009 07:09 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
TERMINALS WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBITIES
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TO THE COASTAL WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO GREATER
THAN 6SM BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 22 KTS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAYM UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE MID/UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR MOST
LAND AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SURGE IN FROM THE
NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST. THE DRIER AIR
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECKS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OFFSET THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. IT
WILL BE A BREEZY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND
COAST. HAVE SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF SOME OF THE MAV GUIDANCE
TO BLEND BETTER WITH THE COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER
30S EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOWS IN A COUPLE LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND FROM THE 60S SUNDAY BACK TO THE LOWER 70S ON
MONDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A FASTER MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM WELL THE NORTH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED THE EARLIER FORECAST
INDICATING SOME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

22/TD

AVIATION...
A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE TAF AIRPORTS INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTAL SECTIONS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH VSBYS WILL IMPROVE
TO GREATER THAN 6SM THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING WTIH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
FROM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN WINDS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
KEEP MARINE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS TODAY THEN 20 TO 25 KTS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OUTER WATER WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS TO
30 KTS ON OCCASION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 40 KTS.
SEA LEVELS WILL RESPOND TO WINDS AND RANGE UP TO 8 FT. A GALE
WARNING MAY ACTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME ZONES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE SHOULD THE GUSTS ABOVE 35 KTS MATERIALIZE.
BEYOND THAT TIME... CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE RELAXED BY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVER THE LAKES AND BY MONDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 46 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 73 48 64 42 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 73 56 66 48 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 75 48 66 43 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER ST. BERNARD...AND LOWER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-17-2009 05:26 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
505 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ZONE...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THEN PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR MID OCTOBER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY. INLAND AREAS TONIGHT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE
DOWN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME RECORD LOWS MAY BE
THREATENED OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AREAS NEAR
THE COAST AND DOWNWIND FROM BAYS AND TIDAL LAKES WILL BE WARMER
DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. SUNDAY WILL BE A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED READINGS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING DEPICTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A GLANCING BLOW
WITH THE MID/UPPER DYNAMICS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVER-RUNNING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ALONG THE GULF COAST
WITH REGARDS TO FRONTAL POSITION GIVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING
POPS IN THE DAY 7 TO 8 TIME PERIODS...SO HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN
THE FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT...AS A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER DRIVES 35 KNOT WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
GROUND DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL REDUCE THE
WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY...BUT GUSTS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR AT KGPT AND KMSY...DUE TO LOWER FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY
BODIES OF WATER. ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY COLD AIR WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS
UP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY AT MSY. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONG
WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

.MARINE...

GRADIENT FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
ABATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BRINGING THE LAKES
OUT OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS FIRST. HIGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET IN OPEN
GULF WATERS WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE PROTECTED
WATERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THESE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. THESE STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE DRIVEN BY
EVEN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THIS 30 TO 40 KNOT FLOW JUST A COUPLE OF
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL EASILY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN OVER
THE WATERS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
LARGE THERMAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WATER AND THE AIRMASS...WHICH
IN TURN LEADS TO MORE TURBULENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAXIMA WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FURTHER REINFORCING THE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GOING THROUGH TODAY.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CEASES...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
RISE BACK TO AROUND 5 FEET DUE TO THIS INCREASED FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 39 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 65 41 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 66 48 64 51 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 66 42 65 42 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-18-2009 07:09 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
502 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE BIG UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. VERY DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY MAKING FOR A
PLEASANTLY COOL DAY WITH LESS WIND.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THIS STRETCH AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE COOLER LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEY AREAS
OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE LOWS
DOWN IN THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE CAN PRODUCE
PATCHY LIGHT FROST...BUT THIS WOULD BE BRIEF OCCURRENCE IF IT
HAPPENS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS AT OR ABOVE 40 WITH AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN REMAINING UP NEAR 50
FOR LOWS.

ON MONDAY... THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND
TO SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH TROUGHS ON OR NEAR THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. CONTINUED AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK TO AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS
COOL...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES HERE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE FORECASTS. A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO/KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS STARTING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE FROM NOW MAJOR HURRICANE RICK IN THE EAST
PACIFIC WILL LIKELY GET ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WITH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AREA. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WILL BRING DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND MOISTURE
FROM RICK THAT WILL JOIN THE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND HAVE
RAISED THE POP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
RETURN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK TO AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH THE
ONSET OF MIXING AFTER SUNRISE BUT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. SHOULD SEE 00000KT AT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED SINCE
WE NO LONGER SEE ANY GUSTS UP TO OR GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WE
HAVE PLACED THE EVOLUTION OF WATCH AND CAUTION STATEMENTS IN THAT
ORDER THROUGH TODAY. CAUTION STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FOR OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ALL WIND SPEEDS
FALL TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT BEST. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER COMES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 62 38 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 64 41 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 50 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 65 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2009 04:33 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 182037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD 1031MB HIGH OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 30S AREA WIDE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS NORTHEAST CONUS TO NORTHEAST GULF WITH STRONG
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DISPLAYED A STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR
40N140W.

SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER NORTH ALABAMA WITH
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH MISSISSIPPI TO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY 12Z
MONDAY. NOT EXPECTED TEMPS TO DIVE TO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT A QUICK DROP AFTER SUNSET IS EXPECTED. CLEAR
SKIES..CALM WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL AREA WIDE. AFTER A COOL NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LEAVING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TWO
THIRDS. 18

.LONG TERM...

A SLOW CLIMB TO WITH TEMPS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND SEASON TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
SLOWLY TO THE CAROLINA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE OUT
WEST...PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE MONDAY AND OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
PULLING MOISTURE FROM MEXICO/RICK ON THURSDAY. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP TO GREAT LAKES BUT BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOW THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...BUT RAINS COULD DRENCHING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

STRONG RIDGING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL KEEP STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

.MARINE...

GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT HAD BEEN
TAKING PLACE HAS ALSO SUBSIDED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS THERMAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALOFT. THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL
EASILY BE IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
PULL THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...
ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES THROUGH THE GULF
COAST. 32


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 38 70 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 41 72 48 77 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 48 71 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 41 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-19-2009 05:19 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER DAYS WILL BE ON
TAP TODAY BEFORE RETURN FLOW BRINGS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY WITH FLAT RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS
WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ONLY
ADVANCE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SNEAK BACK INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. 17


&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY...AS LOW LEVEL AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT HAD BEEN TAKING PLACE HAS ALSO
SUBSIDED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS THERMAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ALOFT. THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
STATES. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL EASILY BE IN EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PULL THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RIDES THROUGH THE GULF COAST. 17


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 43 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 71 48 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 70 53 77 63 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 69 46 75 58 / 0 0 0 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-19-2009 03:02 PM

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