Hardcore Weather
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html)
+--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html)



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-06-2006 04:51 AM

Fxus64 Klix 060909
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
409 Am Cdt Tue Jun 6 2006

.discussion...

Early This Morning There Was A Surface Ridge Of High Pressure
Over The Tennessee/ohio Valley With An Upper-level Trough Along
The Eastern Seaboard. Northwest Flow Aloft Will Continue As The
Trough Pulls Off The East Coast And A High Settles Into The
Southern Plains. Models Show A Disturbance In The Flow Pushing
South Toward The Louisiana/mississippi Coast On Wednesday With A
Weak Front Dropping Into Mississippi And Louisiana. This Will
Bring Our Next Significant Chance For Rain. Unfortunately The 00z
Gfs Run Shows No Other Significant Chance For Precip Through The
Weekend. As The Surface High Settles Into The Atlantic And The
Typical Onshore Flow Develops...we Should Move Toward More Typical
Daytime Heating And Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Activity Next Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 92 64 90 67 / 10 20 30 10
Btr 91 66 90 69 / 10 10 30 10
Msy 91 72 89 73 / 0 10 20 10
Gpt 90 66 90 69 / 0 10 20 10

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-07-2006 08:26 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 070827
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED THE MCS WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...SPREADING A CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS
MOST OF OUR PCWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS WEST OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD RISE AS THE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
ERODE. THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FLATTENS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD
INHIBIT MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND BRING
TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PULLING TO THE EAST LEADING TO
THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 66 93 69 / 40 10 10 10
BTR 86 68 93 70 / 40 10 10 10
MSY 88 75 92 75 / 30 10 10 10
GPT 89 69 91 71 / 20 10 10 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-07-2006 10:22 PM

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 071850
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EAST OF I-55 AND ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE
ALOFT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS TREND
LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO BEGIN THU AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES
EXPANDS EASTWARD WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD BEFORE A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE PATTERN
OCCURS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WOULD AT LEAST BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN TO THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW ARE NOT THAT HIGH.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-08-2006 08:49 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 080836
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
336 Am Cdt Thu Jun 8 2006

.discussion...

The Shortwave That Aided Thunderstorm Development Yesterday Has
Moved Offshore Into The Gulf Of Mexico. It Its Wake High Pressure
Will Build Into Our Area As An Upper-level Ridge Drifts Slowly
Eastward Across The Southern Plains. This Will Inhibit Precip
Chances Into The Weekend As The Surface High Shifts Into The
Atlantic And The Upper-level Ridge Flattens Across The Gulf
States. High Temps Push Into The Low To Mid 90s For The Weekend.
Southerly Return Flow Will Bring An Increase In Moisture For Next
Week...bringing Us Back To A More Typical Pattern Of Diurnal
Convection In The Area.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-08-2006 09:33 PM

000
Fxus64 Klix 082003 Cca
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service New Orleans La
225 Pm Cdt Thu Jun 8 2006

.discussion...hot And Benign Conditions Continue Across The Local
Area This Afternoon As An Upper Ridge Remains Over The Central
And Southern Plains While Surface High Pressure Dominates The
Northern Gulf. Not Expecting Much Change To This Pattern Through
The Weekend Period As Afternoon Temperatures Approach The Mid 90s.
Moisture Return Then Looks To Increase By The Start Of The New
Work Week As The Upper Ridge Weakens. In Addition...an Area Of
Unsettled Weather In The Western Caribbean Looks To Drift Into The
Southern Gulf Sun And Mon Which Might Aid Moisture Transport Through
The Central Gulf. All Of This Points To The Next Chance Of Rain For
The Area Beginning Mon With Perhaps Some Slightly Cooler
Temperatures To Follow.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-09-2006 08:15 AM

Fxus64 Klix 090832
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
332 Am Cdt Fri Jun 9 2006

.discussion...

For The Near Term Temps Will Remain Hot With Little To No Chance
Of Precip. An Upper-level Ridge Over The Southern Plains Will
Flatten And Spread Across The Southeastern States And The Surface
High Pressure Will Drift Eastward Into The Atlantic. The First
Half Of Next Week Could Be Interesting For The Gulf Coast As An
Area Of Disturbed Weather Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea
Moves Into The Gulf Of Mexico. The Gfs Pushes The System Into
Northern Florida...the Nam And Ukmet Toward Texas...and The Ecmwf
Into The Central Gulf. We Decided To Go Closer To The Gfs
Solution...but Limit The Development Due To The Uncertainty. Thus
Our Best Chances For Precip Would Be Sunday Night Into Monday.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - shibumi - 06-09-2006 06:44 PM

So it's 6:40 PM here in Mandeville and the temp is 92 degrees with a humidity of 26%!

Where is this dry air coming from? The dew ponit is 52 F - quite a bit dryer than the last few days.....but the forecast is still for lows only in teh upper 60's - will be interesting to see what the low is in the AM...skies are clear and no wind.....


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-10-2006 08:53 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 100850
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
350 Am Cdt Sat Jun 10 2006

.discussion...
The Local Concerns For Today`s Forecast Will Be Limited To Heat As
Dry Airmass Will Place Temperatures Near Record Levels Once Again.
Cloud Formation Will Be Sparse And There Is No Chance Of Rainfall
Today Or Tonight.

The Greater Attention Is Shifted To Large Area Of Convection Over
The Western Carribean Sea South Of The Western Tip Of Cuba. The
Area Has Undergone Typical Nocturnal Resurgence And Buoy 42056 Has
Trended To A Southwest Direction With A Pressure Of 1004 Mb. A
Look At Cuban Radar Presentations Show Some Crude Cyclonic Turning To
The Radar Signatures But Satellite Imagery Continues To Show The
Area To Be Oriented Along A Broad Trough Of Low Pressure That
Extends From The New England Baroclinic Low. 00z Chart Analysis
Shows A Definitive Trough Of Lower Heights At 925 Mb That Extends
From The Suspect Region Northward To Near Panama City Florida And
Perhaps Supports Some Of The Tropical Models Indications Of A
System Moving Northward Before Curving Under The Influence Of An
Approaching Large Amplitude Trough. The System Will Have To Shed
The Influences Of The Ambient Trough Into Which It Is Embedded
During The Next 12 Hours Or So. Conventional Models Except The Nam
Support This Solution As Well. Incidently...some Reporting
Stations Across Western Cuba Has Measured 4 To 7 Inches
(100-180 Mm) Of Rainfall In The Past 24 Hours.

The Consequences Of All Of This For The Wfo Lix Service Area Is A
Re-enforcement Of The Ongoing Dry Conditions With Subsidence
Increasing Over The Mid-gulf States. Models Also Suggest The
Suspect Circulation Feature...if It Maintains A Cyclonic
Structure...will Aid In Sling-shotting A Cold Front Through Our
Area By Tuesday Morning. More Dry Air Will Settle Across The
Region For The Second Half Of The Week Into Next Weekend.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-13-2006 08:01 AM

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 130843
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ALBERTO LOOKING MORE LIKE A STACKED OCCLUDED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM
INSTEAD OF A WARM CORE TROPICAL. TPC HAS ALBERTO TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE.

VERY QUICK MODIFICATION OF 12Z TO 00Z SOUNDINGS HERE AT NEW. THE
STRONG INVERSION AND SUPRESSIVE HEATING JUST BELOW 700MB WAS
BASICALLY DESTROYED BY 00Z. A LATE SEASON FRONT BEING FORCED
SOUTHWARD BY ALBERTO AND MODERATE VORTICITY LOBE MOVING AROUND
ALBERTO WORKED TOGETHER TO CAUSE SOME SEVERE TS YESTERDAY. ONLY
DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE NO FRONTAL AXIS TO WORK WITH. ANOTHER
VORTICITY LOBE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM ALBERTO AND
MAY CAUSE A FEW TS TO BREAK OUT. ANYTIME WE HAVE TS MOVING
SOUTHWARD IN A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE...SEVERITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF ALBERTO AND SPEED OF
FORWARD MOTION. IF ALBERTO DEPARTS TOO FAST THEN THE VORT LOBE
FALLS FARTHER EAST AND NO RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED. BUT WILL KEEP 30
TO 20 PERCENT OUT FOR MISS GULF COAST.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-14-2006 08:03 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 140909
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TS ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NW GULF THIS MORNING WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY. AS
IT MOVES SSW...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD POOL
ALOFT MOVES INTO A WARMER ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
RIDGING TO THE EAST TO AMPLIFY COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF.

SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING THE DEEP AREA OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE LOCATED FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS THE FLA PEN TOWARD THE
NW GULF COAST TODAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE THU NIGHT PROVIDING AN
ABUNDANCE OF SH/TS FOR THE UPPER TX COAST FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME PERIPHERAL MOISTURE FROM THIS AS WELL AND WILL UP POP NUMBERS
TO CHANCE ON FRIDAY.

ENDLESS PROCESSION OF TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY
TRADES MARCHING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE FIRST IS LOCATED
OVER THE YUCATAN WHICH WILL SUBDUCT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SSW. THE
SECOND IS MOVING WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A THIRD IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LAST TWO
MENTIONED HERE ARE THE ONES TO WATCH. THE FIRST WILL MOVE UNDER
THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LINK THE SFC AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF TS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE INTO THE UPPER TX COAST BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS FIRST
WAVE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 71 93 72 / 10 0 10 10
BTR 92 73 94 73 / 10 0 10 10
MSY 91 75 92 75 / 10 0 10 10
GPT 90 73 92 75 / 10 0 10 10

&&