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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-07-2009 06:11 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM COLUMBUS MS...TO VICKSBURG...TO COLLEGE
STATION TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND HAS
MADE NO SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER THE LAST 4 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS
KEEPING MOISTURE LEVEL RATHER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND
DEW POINTS MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
00Z MODEL RUNS NOT HANDLING FRONTAL POSITION VERY WELL. SHORTWAVE
NEAR SHREVEPORT IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG INTERSTATE 20. UNLESS A
COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP WITH SHORTWAVE INDUCED CONVECTION...CANNOT
SEE COLD FRONT MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS MODELS HAVE PROGGED.
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A WARM LAYER AROUND 800 MB SERVING AS A WEAK
CAP. AT THIS POINT...PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING POPS FROM BOTH
MODELS...KEEPING THEM IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...AND IF MY
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH.

IN FACT...EARLY RETURNS FROM 06Z NAM...WOULD INDICATE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER SPARSE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AT
LEAST. CURRENT FORECAST WAS ALREADY TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION.
THIS WILL REQUIRE KEEPING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST...CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT
THIS WEEKEND. FRONT WILL ONLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY...AND
FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM GFS SOLUTION...WHICH ONLY COOLS TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR VSBY
ISSUES BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE ANYWHERE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE STRONGER THIS MORNING AND MOST TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE VISBIES REMAIN ABV 3SM. TEMPO IFR VISBIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT MCB AND BTR BUT OVERALL VISBIES SHOULD REMAIN IN
MVFR STATUS. CIGS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE BIGGER ISSUE AND MOST
SITES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MVFR CIGS BUT WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP
INTO IFR STATUS AROUND 7-900 FT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY 16Z AND NOW WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE CWA WE MAY NOT HAVE NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE. WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH LOOK
FOR MOSTLY SRLY WINDS. /CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
AFTER LOOKING AT WV AND RADAR TRENDS IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COAST...LIKELY STALLING OUT
ACROSS CNTRL LA AND SRN/CNTRL MS. WITH THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BASICALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES TWRDS THE
COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF TODAY AND BY THIS AFTN SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THU. BY THU NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP AS A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT BUT
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION...STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR
JUST TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COAST. AS PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED NO
MATTER WHERE THE FRONT GOES WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
SAT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. /CAB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 73 87 74 / 40 20 30 20
BTR 88 74 90 74 / 40 20 30 20
MSY 90 78 90 77 / 40 20 20 20
GPT 87 75 87 75 / 30 20 20 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-07-2009 12:41 PM

...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-08-2009 05:50 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
505 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

.UPDATE...
ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED...WHERE MCCOMB...STENNIS AND PICAYUNE HAVE ALL BEEN DOWN
TO ONE QUARTER MILE IN THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES. MCCOMB VISIBILITIES
HAVE COME BACK UP...BUT SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES ARE REPORTING 100
FOOT CLOUD DECK...SO ERRING ON THE SIDE OF SAFETY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT AND CURRENT WARM FRONT
APPEARS TO BE NEAR INTERSTATE 20. OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE GULF...RADAR IS CLEAR THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH 08Z READINGS FROM MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. CERTAINLY FEELS MORE
LIKE A JULY OR AUGUST MORNING THAN APPROACHING THE 2ND WEEKEND IN
OCTOBER.

SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST RELATIVELY ON TARGET. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY. FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POP CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL TREND TOWARD GFS SOLUTION ON POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DROP TEMPERATURES UN SATURDAY. 35

LONG TERM...
IF I COULD DESCRIBE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN ONE
PHRASE...IT WOULD BE...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WAFFLE AS TO MAGNITUDE OF FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO THE GULF AFTER
SATURDAY. LAST NIGHTS SOLUTIONS HAD AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NOW THAT IS EVEN IN DOUBT...AS IS THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE COOL OFF THAT WAS ANTICIPATED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
APPEAR TO PICK UP AN IMPULSE OUT OF THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN...BRING
IT NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVER FLORIDA
AND PHASE IT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF. THIS WOULD BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM
SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WILL INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE DAYS THAT
WERE PREVIOUSLY DRY...BUT KEEP THE CHANCES LOW FOR NOW.

WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL. 35

AVIATION...
BIGGEST ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CLOUDS. LOW CIGS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING LL JET SHOULD GET
CIGS AROUND 1500 FT OR LOWER JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BEFORE SUNRISE.
UNTIL THEN WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOWERED VISBIES IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS AND MCB HAS ALREADY SEEN VISBIES DROP TO 1/4SM. MCB
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM 1/4 TO 2SM UNTIL THE THICK
STRATUS DEVELOPS. AFTER SUNRISE THINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AGAIN
AND MOST SITES SHOULD BE BACK IN VFR STATUS BY 15Z. ONCE THE
STRATUS STARTS TO BREAK WE WILL WARM UP BUT SCT TO BKN CU AROUND
4K WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN.
ISLTD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT LOOK FOR THIS TO BE
ONE OF THE LAST DRY DAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. /CAB/

MARINE...
THINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS BUT
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING JUST OFF THE SERN CONUS SEABOARD
AND LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BACK INTO THAT
10-15KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MS. AS IS NORMAL WINDS WILL SLACK A LITTLE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE IN THAT 10-15KT RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON SAT THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO THE CWA BUT WILL START TO ELONGATE AND STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NCNTRL GULF COAST. WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AND A BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA WINDS BECOME QUITE TRICKY.
CURRENTLY FOR THE WEEKEND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES FROM A
WIND SPEED CONCERN BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BNDRY LAYS
UP...COULD CAUSE ALMOST OF 180 DEGREE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MOSTLY SEE ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE ARE TOO MANY
UNCERTAINTIES TO GIVE A CONFIDENT FCST. THE MDLS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE W/NWRN/NCNTRL GULF. A SFC WAVE COULD DEVELOP
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT IT COULD BECOME A SFC LOW.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS DEVELOPS AND THEN TRACKS WILL HAVE HUGE
IMPACTS IN WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED. AT THIS TIME IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO
COASTAL HEADLINES. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 72 85 68 / 20 10 50 70
BTR 92 74 88 70 / 20 10 50 70
MSY 92 77 89 75 / 20 10 40 50
GPT 89 77 88 73 / 20 10 40 50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...POINTE
COUPEE...ST. HELENA...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND
WEST FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HAN****...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND
WILKINSON.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-08-2009 03:19 PM

...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-09-2009 04:29 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FCAST ISSUE TODAY IS FINDING OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL. A LOT OF
SUPPRESSIVE HEATING AND DRYING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON MOST SH/TS ACTIVITY.
THE PROBLEM IS JUST THAT...NOT MUCH TS ACTIVITY LEADS TO MORE
INSOLATION LEADING TO STRONGER CAPE VALUES. AS WE APPROACH THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW TS GET GOING. IF ONE
OR TWO OF THESE CAN GET A STRONG CORE UPDRAFT STARTED...WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO GET A SEVERE TS DUE MAINLY TO STRONG DOWNBURSTING
WINDS. HAVE LOWERED POP NUMBERS DUE TO THE CAPPING AND DRY AIR
ISSUES BUT WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERITY DUE TO THIS IN THE HWO.
BASICALLY...IF YOU ARE NEAR A TS TODAY...THE CHANCES FOR IT TO BE
OR GO SEVERE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD. BUT THE GOOD THING IS THEY WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED.

THE NEXT THING TO TALK ABOUT IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.
GROUND SATURATION LEVELS REMAIN VERY HIGH AND THEREFORE CAN`T HOLD
ANY MORE RAINFALL WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY CAUSE STANDING WATER. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLOW TO A CRAWL
THROUGH THE DAY SAT. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE COAST
BEFORE STALLING...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL USE THE FRONTAL
INTERFACE BETWEEN 950 AND 700MB TO MOVE NE. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THIS SHOULD CAUSE PLENTY OF RAINFALL
THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE A SHORT BREAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THEN SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE STALLING FRONT SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM TO WANT TO LET UP THOUGH.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE PICTURE BY MID WEEK STALLS ALONG THE
COAST WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL BEFORE MOVING NORTH ONCE AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LAST FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CLEARING THINGS OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS
WILL HAPPEN BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCY IN RUN TO RUN
BEFORE BITING.

&&

.AVIATION...RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST ISSUE ARE CIGS AND THIS SHOULD BE
THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1K-1500FT.
VISBIES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THANKS TO THE INCREASING WIND FIELD.
OUR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
THIS EVENING BUT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISLTD TO SCT SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS BTR AND MCB. SHRA AND TSRA
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SLOWLY THERE COULD BE RATHER LENGTHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN TONIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON THE MARINE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN FLIRTING WITH SCY CONDITIONS AND WE WILL GO AHEAD WITH A SCY FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. AS THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN UP THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE SERN CONUS SEABOARD HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS BROUGHT
WINDS UP TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EVERYWHERE WITH WINDS RIGHT
AROUND SCY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WRN COASTAL ZONES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WON`T RELAX MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LOW QUICKLY
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. BY MID LATE AFTN ALL ZONES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR CONVECTION WE SHOULDN`T SEE TOO MUCH OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT AND THEN AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
SAT INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC BUT IT WILL ALSO KEEP SHRA AND TSRA IN THE FCST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NRN GULF BY SUN
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MON AT WHICH TIME ONSHORE FLOW WILL RECOMMENCE. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 67 75 64 / 30 70 70 40
BTR 90 70 77 65 / 30 70 70 40
MSY 91 75 83 71 / 30 50 70 50
GPT 90 73 82 70 / 20 50 70 50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-10-2009 05:16 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MADE CHANGES TO A GOOD BIT OF THE FCAST AS CONFINDENCE BUILDS
TOWARD STALLING AND RETREATING FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TO MID
TERM. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED AS EVIDENCED BY TEMPS/DP OVER THE
AREA. BUT THE FRONAL TROUGH BISECTS THE AREA AND HAS STALLED. THIS
WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR A MODERATE DISTURBANCE TO USE THE
FRONT TO MOVE NE. THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CAUSE A GOOD BIT OF
SH/TS OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY IS JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER CENTRAL TX AS A LARE AREA OF DRY DENSE AIR SINKS WITH THE AID
OF A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW.
THIS FEATURE KICKS OUT CAUSING A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ACTIVITY
JUST OFFSHORE THE TX COAST. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
TRANSPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE STABLE BL PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY. BUT THE
FEATURE MAY HAVE ENOUGH DRAW TO PULL THE FRONT BACK TEMPORARILY
CAUSING THE WARM SECTOR TO FALL NEAR OR JUST ONSHORE. THIS IS
WHERE WE WOULD HAVE TO LOOK FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE WX. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL LOOK AT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. THEN THE FRONT GETS REACTIVATED AS A
WARM FRONT AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING THE WARM MUGGY WX
BACK MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. THE FACT THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS NOT IN
QUESTION. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH IS. THE STRONG WINDS THAT CAUSE
THE LARGE TROUGH TO DIG ARE JUST MOVING INTO THE 160-170E MERIDION
ALONG ABOUT 40N. THIS FAR OUT OVER THE NORTH PAC. TIMING FOR FROPA
LOOKS TO FALL INTO THE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME WHILE
STRENGTH MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SHOWN BY THE GFS. REASON FOR
BOTH OF THESE ISSUES IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE THAT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT CAUSING IT
TO SLOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...FROM LCH AND JAN...IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST...MAKE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE PREVAILING WEATHER
RESTRICTION AT BTR AN MCB FROM 12Z TO 17Z. SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT VICINITY TS WILL OCCUR NEAR BTR
AND MCB...THREAT TS DIMINISHING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. FOR GPT AND
MSY...PREVAILING THREAT FOR RAIN EXIST MID DAY AND AFTERNOON WITH
TS. CEILING SHOULD BOUNCE DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT FOUR TAF SITES
DURING THE DAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO THE
VLIFR AS STORMS PASS DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS. 18

&&

.MARINE...
THE FIRST FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE SECOND
APPROACHES THE COAST TODAY. THICKNESS LAYERS 1000 TO 700MB SHOWS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT DECREASES THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE 15M BY MONDAY.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. STALL FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RETREAT NORTH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SOUTH FLOW MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE
TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 63 73 67 / 80 50 40 50
BTR 70 63 74 69 / 90 60 50 50
MSY 75 68 77 73 / 90 80 60 50
GPT 76 66 78 72 / 90 80 60 50


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-10-2009 01:45 PM

....


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-11-2009 05:23 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BACK UP TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CONTRAST WHEN COMPARING THIS MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING WITH
RESPECT TO TEMP/DP. SHOULD SEE SOME SH/TS BREAK OUT AS THE WARM FRONT
HEADS NORTH TONIGHT. A DEEP TROPICAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POP NUMBERS UP FOR MONDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN PUSH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NW GULF LEAVING US ON THE FRINGE THOUGH.
POP NUMBERS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH FOR MON BUT HAVE LEFT THEM ALONE
FOR ANOTHER 12HRS UNTIL WE CAN TELL HOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WE
WILL RECEIVE.

TUESDAY POP NUMBERS LOOK HIGH IN THE GUIDANCE AND NUMBERS WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY BE DIALED BACK TOWARD 30%. SAME SONG THU AND FRI.

.LONG TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS BEING PROMISED BY ALL GLOBAL SOLUTIONS BY FRI.
THE MOST QUESTIONABLE THING IS TIMING. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH AND FORCING SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE AS
WELL LEADING TO SOME STRONG ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AND A SQUALL LING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A MODERATE SECONDARY SURGE ALSO DIVES
DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO
SLOW JUST A BIT AS IT PLAYS CATCH UP. BUT THE SLOWING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE AFTER IT PASSES OUR AREA. SO THE FCAST FOR NOW WILL SHOW
THIS SCENARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING SOME BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ONSHORE AND OFF STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SHOULD BE
SOME WELCOME CAA AND DAA BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY IN THE IFR CATEGORY AT BTR AND MCB
WHILE GPT AND MSY HAVE HAD LESS ISSUES. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
STALLED WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN SW
OF BTR AND MSY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD AND COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MODIFY TAFS
AT 12Z ISSUANCE IF NOT EARLIER TO ADJUST FOR THIS EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL IMPEDE VIS AT TIMES.
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY SO EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH TIME.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
THE BULK IN OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AS WINDS ARE JUST
MEETING CRITERIA AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
DECREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FRONT TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SO...OVERALL WIND SPEED AND SEES WILL
SUBSIDE SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME. THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
BACK AND FORTH N/S THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
LATER THIS WEEK TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WELL OUT INTO THE GULF. IF ALL HOLDS
TRUE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 67 82 71 / 50 70 60 40
BTR 74 69 85 72 / 50 70 60 40
MSY 79 73 87 75 / 70 70 50 30
GPT 81 72 85 72 / 50 70 50 30


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-11-2009 11:36 AM

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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-12-2009 05:30 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BE VERY INDICISIVE. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING NE OVER NORTHERN LA AND ARKANSAS THIS MORNING SHOULD INDUCE
THE OLD BOUNDARY TO MOVE NORTH AND STALL FROM CENTRAL ALA BACK
INTO E CENTRAL TX AFTER SUNRISE. AS IT MOVES NE SOME MINOR FORCING
BEHIND THE FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST BY TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
GET STARTED OUT WEST CAUSING A STRONG RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF
MAKING THE WARM FRONT FINALLY SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE
BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY AGAIN THROUGH NORTHERN MISS WHILE A
SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY
LOW WILL FORM WELL OUT IN TX AND MOVE EAST WED THROUGH FRI. THIS
IS THE LOW THAT IS FCASTED TO BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
ONCE WE GET THE FRONT THROUGH...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A DAY BUT THEN CLEARING SHOULD BE THE CASE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS REMAIN QUITE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS BOUNDARY IS STILL
STALLED SOUTH O FALL SITES. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH TODAY
AND THUS WILL SEE CURRENT NERLY FLOW BECOME SOUTH. FOR THE REST OF
THIS MORNING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY DETERIORATE.. LIFR VIS
AND CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT MCB AND BTR. MSY AND GPT WILL STILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE IFR/MVFR BUT VIS SHOULDN/T BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE
AT GPT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MORNING
BUT COULD HAVE A TSRM OR 2 DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT CHARGES NORTH.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
STALLED BOUNDARY IS STILL LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE BUT IS
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL COASTAL WATERS IN ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY INTO AS A WARM
FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN COASTAL WATER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED NIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS NEAR 2
FEET AS ZONAL PATTERN TAKES OVER. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL
SEND A STRONG FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF LATE THIS WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH THIS FRONT.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 69 83 72 / 80 50 70 40
BTR 82 72 85 73 / 80 50 60 40
MSY 84 74 86 75 / 80 40 50 30
GPT 84 72 84 73 / 80 30 50 30