Hardcore Weather
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html)
+--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html)



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-01-2009 10:51 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS64 KLIX 011144
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.AVIATION...
...TAF ISSUANCE 12Z...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AT
KMCB AROUND SUNRISE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES 035-040 STARTING AT KBTR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING. SOME CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVER BTR
AND MCB BEFORE 06Z FRI...TEMPO CONVECTION AFTER 09Z FRI AT BTR AND
MCB AND PROB30 FOR MSY AND GPT. A LOWERING IN CEILINGS AND MORE
RESTRICTION DUE TO RAIN AND FOG/MIST AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

SHORT TERM...
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING IS GAINING STEAM
IN CENTRAL THROUGH EAST TX THIS MORNING. AS THE SFC LOW OVER
KANSAS MOVES UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...A DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HELP THE SOUTHERN END
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DOES NOT
END IT THOUGH. THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF
CAUSING THE FRONT TO ALIGN E-W AND DOWN THE TX COASTAL BEND WHERE
A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN S TX. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING
RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT SHOULD BUCKLE OVER THE NW
GULF FIRST WHILE WE SHOULD SEE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE RAINFALL TO BEGIN
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MOVE
NORTHWARD AS AGRESSIVELY AS THE GFS HAS IT. THE FRONT MOVING BACK
AS A WARM FRONT SHOULD HAPPEN A LITTLE SLOWER MAYBE TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS WELL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OVER. WILL KEEP WET WX THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
SHOULD SEE SOME DROP
IN POP NUMBERS FOR TUE AND WED THEN PICK THEM UP AGAIN BY THU AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AT KMCB
AROUND SUNRISE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES 035-040 STARTING AT KBTR THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EAST IN THE EVENING. SOME CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVER BTR AND MCB
AROUND 06Z FRI AND TEMPO CONVECTION AFTER 09Z FRI. 18

MARINE...
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND
BECOMING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STALL. WITH A MEANDERING FRONT...FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 66 78 56 / 10 50 70 20
BTR 85 67 80 57 / 10 50 70 20
MSY 84 68 79 63 / 0 30 70 30
GPT 81 66 79 61 / 0 20 70 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-02-2009 04:47 AM

Thunder and rain moving through the Northshore right now!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG TS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE FRONT AND ITS
WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SHOWERS
LEFT OVER SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL
OFFSHORE AS IT FEELS THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE NEXT STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER TX. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME REACTIVATED AS A
WARM FRONT. IT SHOULD MOVE RATHER SLUGGISHLY SAT BACK TO THE NORTH
BUT THEN ACCELERATE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE DRAMATIC
AS DRY COOL AIR WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
VERY WARM MOIST AIR AND SH/TS. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR CELLS THAT TRAVEL ALONG IT SUNDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TRANSPORT A MODERATE DISTURBANCE
FROM SE TX BY MON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG CELL
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SEVERE TS.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED EVENING. THIS ONE
SHOULD BE SLOW AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE MOVES IN BEHIND IT.
DUE TO THIS STRONGER FORCING...THE ORIGINAL FRONT MAY ALMOST STALL
AS IT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL THE NEXT SURGE MOVES INTO THE BACK OF THE
FRONT THU MORNING. THIS SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
COLD FRONT TO BRING UP MARINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES FROM NOW FOR BTR AND
MCB...10Z AT MSY AND 12Z GPT TIL 16 AT BTR TO 21Z AT GPT. MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS WILL ERODE FRIDAY EVENING. 18

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF. LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
THEREFORE...MARINE FORECASTER WILL INSERT EXERCISE CAUTION ON TIDAL
LAKES AND COASTAL JUST FOR TODAY. NOT MUCH CAA AND NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY FLAGS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLACK OFF SOME AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF 60NM
FROM THE COAST ON SAT MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATE SAT AND INTO SUN. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 77 55 80 58 / 90 10 10 20
BTR 79 56 80 63 / 90 10 10 30
MSY 83 64 83 68 / 90 20 10 20
GPT 80 56 81 60 / 90 20 10 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-03-2009 05:21 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...AND IS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN DEW POINTS OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A LITTLE BIT OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW WEAK INVERSION AROUND 800 MB HAS ALLOWED
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF...BUT OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
63 AT MCCOMB AT 08Z TO 77 AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...BUT MOST SITES IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
BEFORE STALLING OUT TODAY...THEN DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BELOW 1.5 INCHES UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE DAY. ALSO NO REAL SOURCE OF LIFT...SO ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE
ISOLATED SIDE. AS BOUNDARY LIFTS TO THE NORTH...DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT CHARTS DO SHOW LIFT DURING THIS
PERIOD...WE DO NOT REACH FULL SATURATION. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT...MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. MAV POPS LOOK A HAIR HIGH FOR SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS APPEAR ACCEPTABLE...AND WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST OR ZONAL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF CONVECTION IN
THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING DIURNALLY FAVORED
HOURS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER LAND...AND LATE NIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF 3 TO
5KFT OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH TEMPS
COOLING INTO THE MID 60S FOR MCB AND BTR BY 12Z...THE INVERSION MAY
REACH SATURATION IN A FEW SPOTS...SO SOME MIST DOWN TO 3SM AT MCB IS
A SLIM POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DRY JUST TO THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY MIST DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILING
WILL AFFECT ALL FOUR TAF SITES TIL 14Z...THEN MIX OUT. RAIN WITH
ASSOCIATED LOWER VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. 18
&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE COAST HAS BEEN SLOW...AT LEAST THE COOL
DRY AIR. HIGH OVER NORTH LOUISIANA/NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL SLIDE EAST
AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. THE
OLD BOUNDARY WILL DISSOLVE AND SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND TAP THE MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF
THE OLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A WEAK FLOW ON THE WATERS MID WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ANTICIPATION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT SATURDAY. 18
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 66 80 72 / 10 30 80 60
BTR 84 71 81 73 / 10 40 80 60
MSY 84 72 83 76 / 10 30 70 60
GPT 83 70 81 74 / 10 20 70 60


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-03-2009 10:49 AM

...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-04-2009 06:51 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD AS FAR AS INTERSTATES 10
AND 12 OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA HAS ALLOWED
PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT...BUT WITH DRY MID LAYERS...LITTLE IS
REACHING THE SURFACE IN OUR AREA. MAIN MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH CONVECTION OFF THE TEXAS COAST. CLOSEST
LIGHTNING IS SOUTH OF HOUSTON. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z RANGE FROM 68
AT MCCOMB TO 79 AT BOOTHVILLE AND 80 AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER OUR LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE GULF RIDGE IN VERY RAPID
SUCCESSION. CURRENT BOUNDARY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTH EDGE OF OUR CWA BY EVENING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TODAY. EXPECT CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS MORE PREVALENT THAN THUNDER.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE COASTAL SITES. RAIN WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT MUCH RAIN...AND AFTER MONDAY
MORNING...ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA.

WITH LESS TO FOCUS ON FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS BOUNDARY DRIFTS
NORTH AGAIN...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO LIKELY ON MONDAY AND CHANCE
ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY HOLD
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATUERS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
IDEA OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...PROBABLY SATURDAY MORNING...AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 0.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEX DATA WOULD INDICATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER NEXT WEEKEND THAN WHAT
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS MORNING WITH STRATIFORM
RAIN. LOWERING OF DECKS HAS BEEN SLOW...MAINLY AT MCB. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING OF A LOW/AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TODAY...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 18Z AND ALL FOUR TAF
SITES WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CHAOTIC CLOUD DECKS. IN
ADDITION...DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE RAINY WITH MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORM CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH 12Z MON...BUT MOSTLY
SHRA. 18
&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AS WARM FRONTAL AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED
EAST TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH ALABAMA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND RETREATING RIDGE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
TIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS TODAY. ERGO...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL WATERS. SYSTEM SHOULD LIFTS RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WINDS SHOULD COLLAPSE EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND DIMINISHING SEAS EXPECTED FOR UPCOMING WEEK WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WITH CANADIAN COOL AIR APPEARING TO APPROACH
THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND. 18
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 67 78 68 / 90 80 60 30
BTR 81 70 80 69 / 90 70 60 30
MSY 83 75 82 74 / 90 70 60 20
GPT 81 74 81 71 / 90 80 60 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-04-2009 08:27 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS64 KLIX 041238
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
738 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH PWATS
NEARING 1.9 INCHES NOW. THAT SAID...CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID LAYERS IS SITUATED THIS MORNING BETWEEN 650 AND 800
MB. ABOVE THAT THINGS ARE VERY MOIST AGAIN AND A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
IS LOCATED AROUND 16K FEET. WHILE THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY MINIMAL...THE WIND PROFILE FROM THE SOUNDING IS
PARTICULARLY INTERESTING. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND AROUND 4KM THEY SHIFT AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GIVING A HELICITY VALUE OF 215 THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD HELP AID IN SOME WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD AS FAR AS INTERSTATES 10
AND 12 OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA HAS ALLOWED
PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT...BUT WITH DRY MID LAYERS...LITTLE IS
REACHING THE SURFACE IN OUR AREA. MAIN MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH CONVECTION OFF THE TEXAS COAST. CLOSEST
LIGHTNING IS SOUTH OF HOUSTON. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z RANGE FROM 68
AT MCCOMB TO 79 AT BOOTHVILLE AND 80 AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER OUR LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE GULF RIDGE IN VERY RAPID
SUCCESSION. CURRENT BOUNDARY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTH EDGE OF OUR CWA BY EVENING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TODAY. EXPECT CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS MORE PREVALENT THAN THUNDER.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE COASTAL SITES. RAIN WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT MUCH RAIN...AND AFTER MONDAY
MORNING...ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA.

WITH LESS TO FOCUS ON FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS BOUNDARY DRIFTS
NORTH AGAIN...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO LIKELY ON MONDAY AND CHANCE
ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY HOLD
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATUERS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. 35

LONG TERM...
BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
IDEA OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...PROBABLY SATURDAY MORNING...AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 0.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEX DATA WOULD INDICATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER NEXT WEEKEND THAN WHAT
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 35

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS MORNING WITH STRATIFORM
RAIN. LOWERING OF DECKS HAS BEEN SLOW...MAINLY AT MCB. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING OF A LOW/AXIS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TODAY...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 18Z AND ALL FOUR TAF
SITES WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CHAOTIC CLOUD DECKS. IN
ADDITION...DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE RAINY WITH MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORM CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH 12Z MON...BUT MOSTLY
SHRA. 18

MARINE...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AS WARM FRONTAL AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED
EAST TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH ALABAMA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND RETREATING RIDGE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
TIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS TODAY. ERGO...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL WATERS. SYSTEM SHOULD LIFTS RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WINDS SHOULD COLLAPSE EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND DIMINISHING SEAS EXPECTED FOR UPCOMING WEEK WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WITH CANADIAN COOL AIR APPEARING TO APPROACH
THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 67 78 68 / 90 80 60 30
BTR 81 70 80 69 / 90 70 60 30
MSY 83 75 82 74 / 90 70 60 20
GPT 81 74 81 71 / 90 80 60 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.

&&

$$












New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-05-2009 04:30 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR MERIDIAN THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR MORGAN CITY...KEEPING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE
VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. BANDS OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND FRONT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS...WITH EVENING SOUNDING AT 2.32 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE NOT BEEN MOVING A
WHOLE LOT...SO RAIN TOTALS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S AREA WIDE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOSER
TO MET GUIDANCE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN...BUT
WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...CAN NOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WILL
KEEP SCT POPS IN FOR DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOWER
POPS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL IN FLUX OVER THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
YESTERDAY...MODELS HAD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXITING WELL INTO THE GULF...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS MORNING...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE FRONT. NOW THE GFS
AND ECMWF HANG THE FRONT OVER THE COASTAL AREA...AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND TOWARD
THIS RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS
POINT. CERTAINLY THE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THE LAST COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACCURATELY. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA HAVE BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF RAIN (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MCB)CIGS HAVE MAINLY RANGED B/T 2K AND 4K FT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TWRDS 1500FT BY 15Z. MCB WHICH IS CLOSER
TO THE FRONT HAS CIGS DOWN INTO LIFR STATUS AROUND 3-500FT. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CIGS START TO LIFT BUT
MCB COULD SEE LIFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z THEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS BEFORE CIGS RISE ABV 1K FT WHICH COULD BE AS LATE AS 18Z.
ELSEWHERE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS OUTSIDE OF
SHRA...WITHIN SHRA CIGS WILL POSSIBLY FALL BELOW 1K FT BUT THIS
WILL OF COURSE BE TEMPORARY. VISBIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR STATUS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...OF COURSE MCB IS THE LONE EXCEPTION
WHERE VISBIES COULD BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HRS POSSIBLY
AS LOW AS 2SM BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VISBIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO JUMP BACK UP AROUND 14-15Z. /CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATE TONIGHT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER DECENT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TWRDS THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLACK OFF THIS MORNING AND GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK TWRDS
OUR AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AND SRLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH HEADLINE CRITERIA. SEAS WILL ALSO
DROP SOME TODAY BEFORE SETTLING IN THAT 1-3FT RANGE THROUGH THU.
BY FRI SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WIND
FIELD. /CAB/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 68 88 71 / 50 20 50 40
BTR 83 72 89 72 / 60 20 50 30
MSY 85 75 89 76 / 70 20 50 30
GPT 83 73 87 74 / 70 20 50 30


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-05-2009 01:31 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS64 KLIX 051706 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1206 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE IFR CLOUD COVER FROM KMCB NORTHWARD TO TN AND AR. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY IN VICINITY OF E-W ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ALONG THE GULF COAST. CONVECTION HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM TERMINALS
BUT WILL STILL IMPACT ROUTES SE AND E OF KMSY ON TRANS-GULF
AIRWAYS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERALL
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO BE STAGNANT FOR NEXT 18-24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT THOUGH A FEW
BINOVC MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME...ONLY TO BECOME NEARLY
OVERCAST NOCTURNALLY.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-06-2009 05:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RETURNING NORTHWARD...AND APPEARS TO BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 12...AS SHOWN BY SOUTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITHIN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM
INTERSTATE 12 SOUTHWARD WITH DEW POINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE. CONDITIONS ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER IN THE MCCOMB AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS WELL AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS OPPOSED TO 2.5 INCHES 24 HOURS
AGO. VALUES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 1.8 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO. CURRENT WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND KEEP ENTIRE AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...THEN
WASHES OUT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY ORGANIZED LIFT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE NO MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED HOURS. FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCE TOMORROW...BUT NO AREAS HAVE MORE THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION DURING ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS MIGHT PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
NO AREAS OUTLOOKED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS LONG AS THE AREA RESIDES IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE WEEKEND. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS HAS RETURNED TO THE FASTER SOLUTION SEEN 48
HOURS AGO...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE ECMWF
HANGS THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME BEFORE BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA ABOUT SUNDAY MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS FRONTAL
POSITION SOLUTION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL
WE GET TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...AS IT APPEARS
THAT MOTHER NATURE WILL TAKE THAT LONG TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.
UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER POST PASSAGE. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT BASICALLY LOCATED OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS LED TO LIGHT
AND VRB IF NOT CALM WINDS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE ABSENCE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE EITHER BR/FG HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP OR A STRATUS DECK. CIGS AT BTR AND MCB WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AND COULD EVEN LOWER POSSIBLY DOWN TO LIFR
CATEGORY AND COULD EVEN DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC LEADING TO
LIFR VISBIES. LOWERED CIGS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A PROBLEM AT
GPT/HDC/ASD/MSY BUT THESE SITES ESPECIALLY HDC AND ASD WHICH
RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING COULD HAVE BIGGER
ISSUES WITH VISBIES AT FIRST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE AND BY 16Z EVERYONE SHOULD BE BACK IN VFR STATUS. SCT
CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY AND DURING THE AFTN
HRS AND OF COURSE THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAD TO LOWERED
VISBIES/CIGS. /CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
WEAKLY DEFINED WARM FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
TONIGHT(STILL BELOW 15KTS) AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES TWRDS THE
AREA FROM THE NW WED MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO STALL OUT JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST LEADING TO CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BE STATUS QUO UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING. BY THAT TIME A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TWRDS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS
MAY PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI BUT
WITH SRLY WINDS WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW SCY FRI AND SAT.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NE THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ELONGATE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR SEAS LOOK FOR MAINLY
1-3FT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT BUT SHORT INCREASE
TO 4FT LATE TONIGHT. BY FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEAS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 3-5FT. /CAB/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 71 84 70 / 40 40 40 20
BTR 89 72 85 71 / 40 40 40 20
MSY 89 76 87 75 / 30 20 40 20
GPT 87 74 86 75 / 40 20 30 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-06-2009 10:50 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS64 KLIX 061306
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
806 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS MORE DRY AIR PRESENT AND IS LESS MOIST THAN
YESTERDAY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.87 INCHES BUT
REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX VALUE OF -5.2. MIST WAS
PRESENT AT LAUNCH WHICH THE SOUNDING SHOWS THE SATURATION IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG DEVELOPED OVER NIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN A FEW AREAS. A SURFACE INVERSION IS
PRESENT ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE SHIFTING TO
WEST THEN NORTHWEST ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RETURNING NORTHWARD...AND APPEARS TO BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 12...AS SHOWN BY SOUTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITHIN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM
INTERSTATE 12 SOUTHWARD WITH DEW POINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE. CONDITIONS ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER IN THE MCCOMB AREA.

SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS WELL AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS OPPOSED TO 2.5 INCHES 24 HOURS
AGO. VALUES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 1.8 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO. CURRENT WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND KEEP ENTIRE AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...THEN
WASHES OUT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY ORGANIZED LIFT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE NO MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED HOURS. FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCE TOMORROW...BUT NO AREAS HAVE MORE THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION DURING ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD. DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS MIGHT PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
NO AREAS OUTLOOKED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS LONG AS THE AREA RESIDES IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE WEEKEND. 35

LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS HAS RETURNED TO THE FASTER SOLUTION SEEN 48
HOURS AGO...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE ECMWF
HANGS THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME BEFORE BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA ABOUT SUNDAY MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS FRONTAL
POSITION SOLUTION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL
WE GET TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...AS IT APPEARS
THAT MOTHER NATURE WILL TAKE THAT LONG TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.
UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER POST PASSAGE. 35

AVIATION...
WARM FRONT BASICALLY LOCATED OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS LED TO LIGHT
AND VRB IF NOT CALM WINDS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE ABSENCE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE EITHER BR/FG HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP OR A STRATUS DECK. CIGS AT BTR AND MCB WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AND COULD EVEN LOWER POSSIBLY DOWN TO LIFR
CATEGORY AND COULD EVEN DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC LEADING TO
LIFR VISBIES. LOWERED CIGS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A PROBLEM AT
GPT/HDC/ASD/MSY BUT THESE SITES ESPECIALLY HDC AND ASD WHICH
RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING COULD HAVE BIGGER
ISSUES WITH VISBIES AT FIRST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE AND BY 16Z EVERYONE SHOULD BE BACK IN VFR STATUS. SCT
CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY AND DURING THE AFTN
HRS AND OF COURSE THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAD TO LOWERED
VISBIES/CIGS. /CAB/

MARINE...
WEAKLY DEFINED WARM FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
TONIGHT(STILL BELOW 15KTS) AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES TWRDS THE
AREA FROM THE NW WED MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO STALL OUT JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST LEADING TO CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BE STATUS QUO UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING. BY THAT TIME A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TWRDS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS
MAY PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI BUT
WITH SRLY WINDS WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW SCY FRI AND SAT.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NE THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ELONGATE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR SEAS LOOK FOR MAINLY
1-3FT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT BUT SHORT INCREASE
TO 4FT LATE TONIGHT. BY FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEAS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 3-5FT. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 71 84 69 / 40 40 40 20
BTR 89 73 85 71 / 40 40 40 20
MSY 89 76 87 75 / 30 20 40 20
GPT 87 74 86 75 / 40 20 30 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$