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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-26-2009 02:43 PM

....


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-27-2009 05:07 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN...FINALLY A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ARE IN THE
OFFING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH INTO
THE GULF THIS MORNING AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...
HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS AROUND THE 90
DEGREE MARK. THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND LOWER HUMIDITY WEATHER
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME WE ONLY PLAN TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. 11

.LONG TERM...
IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY MORNING...AND 50S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHSHORE AND
BATON ROUGE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING THE SH/TS
ACTIVITY WITH IT INTO THE GULF. WILL BE THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE
THAT A TS TEMPO GROUP WILL NOT BE FOUND IN TAF SET FOR ANY TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY. PROBLEM WILL COME IN THE FORM
OF FOG. WITH THE FRONT BEING SO WEAK AND BARELY ABLE TO MOVE ANY DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...THE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT WILL HELP LOCK MOISTURE
INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE COOLING OCCURS AT THE TOP OF THE BL.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME VIS DETERIORATION AT ALL SITES THIS
MORNING. MCB AND BTR SHOULD BE THE WORST. 17

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 30
KNOTS AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS(20-60NM). AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT A SHIFT TO
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. STRONG MIXING DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL LEAD TO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND ELEVATED SEAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY. 17


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 69 88 59 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 90 70 90 62 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 90 73 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 90 71 89 64 / 0 0 10 10



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-27-2009 09:34 PM

....


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-28-2009 05:00 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
431 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME LIFT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
EDGE UP TO 1.5 OR POSSIBLY 1.6 INCHES LATER TODAY. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT... VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL ENSUE
UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

.LONG TERM...
VERY PLEASANT AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR 60S ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN MOVES
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE OFFING AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE REGION...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE ECMWF PUSHES THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH GULF BY SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE LATEST GFS HANGS THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AS A WAVE/LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN TEXAS. THE
RESULT IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WHILE THE ECMWF DRIES THINGS OUT. AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN TO
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS A POSSIBLE IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION IN THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUT OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY PROBLEM EXPECTED IS FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONGER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING AROUND 20 KNOTS. 17

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. STRONG MIXING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SECOND FRONT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO TUE. CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP TO THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 58 80 53 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 90 61 82 55 / 20 10 0 0
MSY 90 70 82 65 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 91 63 83 57 / 20 10 0 0


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-28-2009 11:34 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 281356 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
856 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.UPDATE...

AFTER REVIEWING THE 12Z SOUNDING...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF POPS FROM THE REGION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE
A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

SHORT TERM...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME LIFT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
EDGE UP TO 1.5 OR POSSIBLY 1.6 INCHES LATER TODAY. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT... VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL ENSUE
UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

LONG TERM...
VERY PLEASANT AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR 60S ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN MOVES
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE OFFING AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE REGION...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE ECMWF PUSHES THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH GULF BY SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE LATEST GFS HANGS THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AS A WAVE/LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN TEXAS. THE
RESULT IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WHILE THE ECMWF DRIES THINGS OUT. AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN TO
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS A POSSIBLE IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION IN THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUT OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. 11

AVIATION...
ONLY PROBLEM EXPECTED IS FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONGER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING AROUND 20 KNOTS. 17

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. STRONG MIXING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SECOND FRONT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO TUE. CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP TO THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 58 80 53 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 90 61 82 55 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 90 70 82 65 / 10 10 0 0
GPT 91 63 83 57 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-29-2009 05:45 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLIDING IN FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMDITIES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX SLIPS THROUGH WITHIN THE OVERALL DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOW AND MID-
LEVELS...RIDGING WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD. INITIALLY...MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...AS A
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS WEDGE WILL COMPLETELY ERODE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH SOME DIFLUENCE WILL PROVIDE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT TO THE
REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A
STRONGER AND FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE 00Z RUN...THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD SHOWN. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS
SOLUTION...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS ARE SUCH GOOD
AGREEMENT. STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ALLOW FOR A VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...DRIVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO BE GUIDED BY A FAIRLY DECENT 100 KNOT JET STREAK DIVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE NOSE OF THIS JET WILL BE AIMED STRAIGHT AT THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE...THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CAVEATS...AS THE
FRONT MAY ACTUALLY OUTRACE THE BEST DYNAMICS...LEAVING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS IN THE AIR...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO FRIDAY. IN EITHER
EVENT...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO
THE BROAD AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN STALL
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE WILL
QUICKLY END BY SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ONCE OVERTAKE THE REGION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL...WITH A
FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW IN PLACE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG IN THIS FLOW AND ACROSS THE GULF STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WEAK VORT LOBES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT...GIVEN A FAVORABLE THERMODYAMIC PROFILE...TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS NO STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES MAY AFFECT KMSY THROUGH 15Z. 11

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
WAS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED INTO THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF ELEVATED STATIONS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST WERE REPORTING WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WEST
OF THE RIVER AND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS WILL HAVE
HEADLINES INDICATING THAT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN
TO VEER...WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AGAIN BECOMING OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 81 53 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 83 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 82 64 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 83 56 83 58 / 0 0 0 0


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-29-2009 11:57 AM

...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-30-2009 05:20 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER DAY OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. A VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS BEING DELIVERED ON THE BACK OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE BRING CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THIS RESPITE FROM MUGGIER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW...LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID-
LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE HOLD AT THE SAME
TIME. AS THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION...A PERIOD
OF BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO A WEDGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING
TO BLEED DOWN FROM THE LOWER APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT SHOULD
BE OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
IN THE REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL CEASE...AS A DEEP
LAYER OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TAKES HOLD THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. WITH THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE REGION
WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED FOR ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
RACING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT...THIS
LINE MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAN THE
TRUE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT ENTER THE CWA UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALOFT...THE DYNAMICS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE NOSE OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK POKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PULL INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL FINALLY PULL COMPLETELY OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE
GULF SOUTH. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION. OVERALL...A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN
STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND
SUNNY SKIES.

HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING HUMIDITY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION
TAKES CONTROL. ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...BUT WEAK...IMPULSES
OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS PERIOD.
THESE WEAK IMPULSES...COMBINED WITH AMPLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN
PLACE FROM RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF...WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE ADDED KICK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING
THE DAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT...DUE
TO THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. 11

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONALLY MODERATE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE WINDS THEN VEERING TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS RETURN FLOW COMMENCES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 55 84 67 / 0 0 10 30
BTR 83 58 85 71 / 0 0 10 30
MSY 81 64 85 73 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 82 56 82 69 / 0 0 0 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-30-2009 12:04 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301241
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF ITS PRESENCE IS
OBVIOUSLY STILL BEING FELT. THE SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOWS TWO
ELEVATED INVERSIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE SURFACE INVERSION
AND THE PW IS DOWN TO 0.8 INCHES. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
NEAR THE SURFACE BUT QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

SHORT TERM...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER DAY OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. A VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS BEING DELIVERED ON THE BACK OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE BRING CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THIS RESPITE FROM MUGGIER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW...LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID-
LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE HOLD AT THE SAME
TIME. AS THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION...A PERIOD
OF BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO A WEDGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING
TO BLEED DOWN FROM THE LOWER APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT SHOULD
BE OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
IN THE REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL CEASE...AS A DEEP
LAYER OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TAKES HOLD THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. WITH THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE REGION
WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED FOR ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
RACING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT...THIS
LINE MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAN THE
TRUE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT ENTER THE CWA UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALOFT...THE DYNAMICS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE NOSE OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK POKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PULL INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL FINALLY PULL COMPLETELY OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE
GULF SOUTH. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION. OVERALL...A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS IN
STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND
SUNNY SKIES.

HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING HUMIDITY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION
TAKES CONTROL. ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...BUT WEAK...IMPULSES
OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE REGION OVER THIS PERIOD.
THESE WEAK IMPULSES...COMBINED WITH AMPLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN
PLACE FROM RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF...WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE ADDED KICK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING
THE DAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT...DUE
TO THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIRMASS IN PLACE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONALLY MODERATE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE WINDS THEN VEERING TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS RETURN FLOW COMMENCES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 55 84 67 / 0 0 10 30
BTR 83 58 85 71 / 0 0 10 30
MSY 81 64 85 73 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 82 56 82 69 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-01-2009 05:54 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING IS GAINING STEAM
IN CENTRAL THROUGH EAST TX THIS MORNING. AS THE SFC LOW OVER
KANSAS MOVES UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...A DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HELP THE SOUTHERN END
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DOES NOT
END IT THOUGH. THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF
CAUSING THE FRONT TO ALIGN E-W AND DOWN THE TX COASTAL BEND WHERE
A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN S TX. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING
RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT SHOULD BUCKLE OVER THE NW
GULF FIRST WHILE WE SHOULD SEE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE RAINFALL TO BEGIN
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MOVE
NORTHWARD AS AGRESSIVELY AS THE GFS HAS IT. THE FRONT MOVING BACK
AS A WARM FRONT SHOULD HAPPEN A LITTLE SLOWER MAYBE TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS WELL BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OVER. WILL KEEP WET WX THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
SHOULD SEE SOME DROP
IN POP NUMBERS FOR TUE AND WED THEN PICK THEM UP AGAIN BY THU AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AT KMCB
AROUND SUNRISE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES 035-040 STARTING AT KBTR THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EAST IN THE EVENING. SOME CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVER BTR AND MCB
AROUND 06Z FRI AND TEMPO CONVECTION AFTER 09Z FRI. 18

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND
BECOMING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STALL. WITH A MEANDERING FRONT...FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK. 18
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 66 78 56 / 10 50 70 20
BTR 85 67 80 57 / 10 50 70 20
MSY 84 68 79 63 / 0 30 70 30
GPT 81 66 79 61 / 0 20 70 30