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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2009 12:59 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211655 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009


.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN CU CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 020-030 TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR SCT
DECK AFTER 18Z. LARGE STREAM OF FOCUSED CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX
ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND INTO CENTRAL MS AND AL WILL POSE ENROUTE
ISSUES TO POINTS WEST...NORTH AND EAST OF LOCAL TERMINALS. WILL
MAINTAIN NON-CONVECTIVE TAFS AT KMSY AND KGPT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO BUT BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL INTRODUCE
TEMPO GROUPS AT KMCB AND KBTR BTWN 18Z-21Z. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE AND REMAINS MOIST
IN THE UP TO 3000 FT WITH A DRY POCKET OF AIR FROM NEAR 875 MB TO
500 MB...LIFTED INDEX VALUE IS -8.1 AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
IS 1.91 INCHES. THIS DRY POCKET OF AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CUMULI
FORM CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED NEAR 1900 FT AND BROKEN NEAR 19000FT THIS
MORNING. A FEW INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING...NEAR THE
SURFACE...915 MB AND 830 MB. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS THEN SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE WEST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE ONLY ISSUES I SEE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
LAND AREAS OF OUR CWA. RUC SHOWS AN H85 THETA E MIN DRAPED ACROSS
THAT AREA WITH ONLY MINOR THETA E ADV OCCURRING IN OUR EXTREME SERN
COASTAL WATERS. THE BULK OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT IS OFF TO OUR N AND NW
BUT THE RUC DOES SHOW A VERY SUBTLE IMPULSE MOVING INTO SWRN LA AND
THIS APPEARS TO AGREE WITH THE WV IMAGERY WHICH HAS SOME WEAK
ENHANCEMENT MOVING INTO THIS SAME AREA. THIS COULD BE WHAT GETS SOME
SHRA/TSRA TO POP ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO THAT WE DO
HAVE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION INITIALLY BUT THIS COULD
GO AWAY WITH TIME AS WE MOVE MORE UNDER THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION(RFQ) OF THE UPPER JET. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK ZFP/GRID
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS JUST A TAD IN THE SE BUT MAINTAIN THE 40% IN
THE NW. TEMPS LOOK GOOD SO FAR SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED HERE. /CAB/

AVIATION...
DURING MORNING HOURS MVFR VIS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 AND 14UTC AT
MOST LOCATIONS WITH VIS IN 3 TO 5 MI RANGE. MCB AREA EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE SHORT PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TODAY WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTM ACTIVITY.
SOME LIGHT FOG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THOSE TERMINALS THAT FALL UNDER CEILINGS.

MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORTS LIGHT SE TO S FLOW THROUGH TODAY. AS
LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE TUE TO THU
TIME FRAME...ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED MOVE INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL LA...THEN STALL BY AS UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY OR
RETROGRADES WESTWARD. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
COMBINATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE S GULF OF
WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROMOTES BACKING WINDS INTO MID WEEK...WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT E TO NE OVER MARINE AREA IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 88 70 87 / 20 50 30 50
BTR 73 89 72 88 / 20 50 30 50
MSY 76 89 77 89 / 20 40 30 30
GPT 75 89 74 89 / 20 40 30 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-22-2009 05:59 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILER NETWORK
SHOW THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ROCKIES/WEST
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THIS LOW...A STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...ARE ALL CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.

CLOSER TO HOME...A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH
OVERNIGHT CAUSING A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...A FAST MOVING UPPER IMPULSE HAS
BEEN CAUSING A WELL DEFINED ENHANCEMENT/THICKENING OF CLOUDS SINCE
MIDNIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST HAS RECEIVED SOME HEAVY RAIN.

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST TODAY AND THE COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ANOTHER IMPULSE/WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO EXPECTED. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS TODAY GIVEN ALL THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS AND INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER. EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO A FEW WATERSPOUTS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME NEAR SHORE AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY...HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREATS GIVEN THE RECENT DRIER
CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER BACK WEST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FROM THE MCCOMB AREA
TO BATON ROUGE WITH LOWER CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A BIT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE SURFACE FRONT
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL ALSO WASH OUT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH ONLY A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
AGAIN AS THE SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE WEST AND NORTH OF
OUR AREA.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND LIFT
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. USING A CONSENSUS...THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR
END SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO SETTLE INTO THE
AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A SUBSTANTIAL COLD UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A FLAT TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KGPT AND KMSY
TONIGHT...AS A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KGPT TO
REFLECT THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THESE SHOWERS
PASS THROUGH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT...AND HAVE ADDED
IN VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. THE CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF
AFTER SUNSET...BUT COASTAL SHOWERS MAY ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMSY AND KGPT. IN ADDITION...LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBTR AND KMCB AFTER
08Z TONIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCB. FOG SHOULD
NOT BE AS LARGE OF A CONCERN MAINLY DUE TO SOME STRONGER BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS PRODUCING A BIT MORE MIXING THAN OTHERWISE COMMONLY
EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...

A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME STRONG LIFT IN
THE UPPER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE SAME
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. A NOCTURNAL JET OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THIS MORNING
HAS ALSO PRODUCED AN AREA OF 15 KNOTS...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUND THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVER THE
LAKES...BUT EXPECT A LIGHT CHOP NONETHELESS. OVERALL SEAS WILL RUN
2 TO 3 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND SEAS WILL DROP A BIT. HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO
BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DECENT NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PUSH SEAS TO THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...WITH VERY CHOPPY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE OUTER WATERS. THIS GRADIENT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RELAXING A BIT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HIGH WIND AND SEAS NEAR THESE STORMS. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 71 87 70 / 70 50 60 30
BTR 88 72 88 71 / 70 50 60 30
MSY 88 77 89 77 / 70 40 40 20
GPT 87 74 89 74 / 70 30 30 20



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-22-2009 10:30 AM

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221507
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR ONGOING WEATHER TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SEEMS THAT THE
NAM/WRF HAD THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION TIMED THE BEST WHICH HAS
BROUGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. COOL
OUTFLOW HAS REACHED THE COAST AND WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...DOUBT TEMPS WILL WARM VERY MUCH AT ALL. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED
MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A REACH.
SUSPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 70S BUT HARD TO TELL HOW
MUCH HEATING MAY OCCUR SHOULD THERE BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
POPS WILL BE HELD AT 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY MAKING THE CASE FOR 100
POPS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL BE SINCE OUTFLOW HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT STILL THINK THAT WITH 2 INCH
PRECIP WATER AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND TOMORROW. THE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH C TX AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN SE TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FRONT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALSO SUPPORT ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RIGHT NOW WILL
STILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH BUT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
BEEN QUITE LOCALIZED AT BEST.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NWRN ZONES THIS MORNING
AS ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED.
SO FAR THE PREVIOUS PROGS OF WETTER DAYS ARE COMING TO PASS GIVEN
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THE STORMS COMING IN FROM THE NNW APPEAR TO
BE WEAKENING BUT THEIR OUTFLOWS ARE REMAINING IN MOTION (STEADILY
S/SEWD). ATTM NOT SURE HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THEY WILL GO BEFORE
PULLING UP STATIONARY...AS THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. AS PER SATELLITE WV IMAGERY/MODELS THERE
IS ANOTHER S/W OF NOTE APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS FEATURE THEN
COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOWS AND/OR THE FRONT ITSELF
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED PCPN ACROSS MOST OF SE TX THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS EVIDENT BY THE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...LOCALLY HVY RAINS
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
STRONG DYNAMICS/BOUNDARY(IES) SHOULD ADD TO THE THREAT TODAY/THIS
EVENING. ATTM NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE SFC
BOUNDARIES WILL PARK FOR AN FFA.

OUR ELEVATED RAIN CHCS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE COLD
FRONT REMNANTS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ADD-
ITIONAL S/W ACTIVITY FROM THE WSW. THIS PATTERN TO REMAIN LARGELY
IN PLACE GIVEN THE VERY SLOW EWD MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. 41

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE UTCW WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MOST LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FRONT THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW SHOULD COME TONIGHT WITH 10-15KTS BEING THE PREVAILING FLOW BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT A TAD STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WATERS SOUTHWEST OF
FREEPORT. CAA WANES QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND 850 FRONT STARTS TO CREEP
BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT GIVEN THE
MESOSCALE NATURE OF ONGOING STORMS BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE
INDICATES AM NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY. VERY
LIGHT WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PASSES BY TO THE EAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES THE NEARSHORE WIND REGIME.
45

AVIATION...
THE AREA GETTING SANDWICHED BETWEEN SHRA-TSRA THAT STRETCH FROM NEAR
JCT-SAT-11R-DWH-RSN AND SHRA/TSRA THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MAKING BEELINE FOR LBX/SGR/HOU TERMINALS. THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS IT IS LOOKING LIKE
SHRA AND FEW TSRA WILL PLAGUE THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. PLANNING TO
MAINTAIN VCSH THROUGH 00Z MOST AREAS WITH TEMPOS FOR INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SOUTH. WEDNESDAY-
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS A GOOD BET WITH A LITTLE LOWER CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS ON TIMING OF
THE S/W IN THE SW FLOW.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 65 79 67 84 / 80 50 50 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 69 80 69 85 / 80 70 70 40 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 85 73 81 75 85 / 80 70 70 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-23-2009 06:03 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
HAMMOND AND LAKE MAUREPAS...THEN CURVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST A BIT
FARTHER WEST AT 925 MB. SATELLITE LOOPS AND UPPER AIR/PROFILER
DATA SHOWS THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A BELT OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE
MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THIS IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A NICE SPLIT
IN THE FLOW...OR A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 2.0 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TODAY.
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S WEATHER...THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
ALL THE FAVORABLE FACTORS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AM EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH...WITH SCATTERED SPOTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. STORM MOTION AND
PROPAGATION VECTORS MAY AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOCAL TRAINING
OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
THAT COULD WORK AGAINST STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IS LACK OF DECENT INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AM STILL FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH RADAR DEVELOPMENTS AND CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AND/OR AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF STRONG
SLOW MOVING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP.

ANY CONVECTIVE/RAIN COMPLEX SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT FASTER THIS
EVENING AS THE BETTER FORCING COMES TO AN END. THE UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A VERY BROAD AND WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE LACK
OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND DYNAMICS WILL MAKE FOR A DRIER DAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT INLAND TO 20 PERCENT
NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE THE
MID/UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN BESIDES TODAY WILL COME ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE GETS TRANSPORTED BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE DRYING DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN
CHANCES DOWN TO SLIGHT OR NONE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED -SHRA CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NWRN AREAS NEAR MCB AN BTR.
LITTLE IF ANY IS REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AT BTR AND MCB. EXPECT VLIFR TO
LIFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS AND MVFR TO IFR AT GPT AND MSY. THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY EXISTS IN NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND EAST
OF PQL. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
LATER MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
FROM GPT AND WESTWARD WITH BTR AND MCB LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST
INTENSE AND LONGEST DURATION ACTIVITY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET WITH CHANCE OF SH/TS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH DIRECTION DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION. STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
LA WILL BE THE DIVIDER BTW NNW AND SE WINDS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED BY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE HAS
RESULTED IN WINDS STAYING ELEVATED. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SCS
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
ON ISSUING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. SEAS DON/T APPEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 3 FEET OFFSHORE. BRIEF PERIODS
OF HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A STAGNANT CLUSTER EAST OF CHANDELEUR ISLAND.
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE BULK OF
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS. THE FRONT CAUSING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME QUITE DISCERNIBLE LATER THIS WEEK BUT NERLY WINDS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
SHOVES THE BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 70 87 71 / 80 30 40 20
BTR 86 71 89 72 / 80 30 30 20
MSY 88 76 89 77 / 70 20 20 20
GPT 88 72 90 74 / 60 20 20 20



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2009 02:22 PM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 231754 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.UPDATE...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...DUE TO A LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDER AT KMCB...KBTR...AND KMSY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
AIRMASS IS A BIT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AT KGPT TODAY. HAVE LEFT
OUT THUNDER FOR NOW TO REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KMCB AND KBTR TONIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR
RANGE...WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE LIFR RANGE AROUND
10-12Z. THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AFTER 14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER 18Z. AT KMSY AND KGPT...A WEAKER INVERSION WILL
KEEP MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. 32


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING.
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH A PW OF 2.35 INCHES AND
AN LI OF -6.7. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND COMBINED DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS.

THE INVERTED TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SERN LA AND INTO SRN MS(FROM
NEAR HUM JUST WEST OF MSY AND NNW JUST WEST OF PIB). WE ARE STARTING
TO HEAT UP AND ISLTD TO SCT SHRA ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP MAINLY
AROUND THE SOUTH AND NORTH SHORE WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BEGINNING IN
THE RIVER PARISHES IN THE NEXT HOUR ALONG OUR INVERTED TROUGH.
CONVECTION WILL BE COLD POOL/OUTFLOW DRIVEN AND LIKELY SPREAD
SLOWLY INITIALLY. AS SEEN IN THE SOUNDING DISCUSSION THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE TROPICAL AND STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT.
ANY CONVERGING STORM OR BOUNDARIES COULD LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN
LOCALLY WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN A SHORT
TIME. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFT HRS BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET. AS
FOR STRONG/SVR...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BUT THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR BUT THE
ROGUE PULSE SVR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT. /CAB/

AVIATION...

ISOLATED -SHRA CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NWRN AREAS NEAR MCB AN BTR.
LITTLE IF ANY IS REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AT BTR AND MCB. EXPECT VLIFR TO
LIFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS AND MVFR TO IFR AT GPT AND MSY. THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY EXISTS IN NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND EAST
OF PQL. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
LATER MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
FROM GPT AND WESTWARD WITH BTR AND MCB LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST
INTENSE AND LONGEST DURATION ACTIVITY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET WITH CHANCE OF SH/TS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH DIRECTION DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION. STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
LA WILL BE THE DIVIDER BTW NNW AND SE WINDS.

MEFFER

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED BY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE HAS
RESULTED IN WINDS STAYING ELEVATED. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SCS
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
ON ISSUING BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. SEAS DON/T APPEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 3 FEET OFFSHORE. BRIEF PERIODS
OF HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A STAGNANT CLUSTER EAST OF CHANDELEUR ISLAND.
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE BULK OF
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS. THE FRONT CAUSING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME QUITE DISCERNIBLE LATER THIS WEEK BUT NERLY WINDS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
SHOVES THE BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-24-2009 05:43 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
502 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SHARP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BECOME CENTERED SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CREATE DIRECTIONAL
CONVERGENCE ALOFT TODAY INSTEAD OF THE PRONOUNCED DIVERGENCE THAT
OCCURRED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SPEED
DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
STRONGER AS YOU GO NORTH. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE NEITHER
POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PW/S OVER 2 INCHES WILL PERSIST MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TODAY...SO AM STILL EXPECTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND WEST. AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL HAVE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE TODAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE MEAN FLOW AND PROPAGATION VECTORS MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN SOME TRAINING OF HEAVY CELLS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE AREA THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS...SOME AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA DOWN TO AROUND THE BATON ROUGE AREA COULD
RECEIVED LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE ANY QUICK 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MEANDER BACK NORTHWEST...SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTHEAST BACK WHERE IT
STARTS OUT TODAY. THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN JUST ENOUGH RELOADING OF MOISTURE TO
KEEP PW/S ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH POPS WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND
RAISING THEM TO 40-50 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MODELS ARE STILL SIMILAR IN TIMING TO PREVIOUS RUNS GRADUALLY
OPENING THE MID/UPPER LOW INTO A WAVE AND TAKING IT AND THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOLED OVER THE AREA AND ACTED UPON BY STILL DECENT
DIURNAL HEATING...PVA...AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HAVE RAISED THE
POP TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THIS MAY BE
REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF THE DRYING TRENDS CONTINUE. THE GFS
IS ACTUALLY SHOWING A BIT HIGHER MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ON
LAND. THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN
THE COOLER NORTHERN LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
AT BTR AND MCB. EXPECT VLIFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
MVFR TO IFR AT GPT AND MSY. DROPPED MCB VIS TO 1/4SM AS CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER TO SFC AND SHOULD BE GROUND BOUND BY
AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH CONTINUES
TO REMAIN IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE AS IT HAS BEEN. SHOULD SEE A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL SITE TO GET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET
LEAVING ONLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME BEFORE THEY DECAY AS WELL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY RESULTING IN SEAS OF ABOUT 2 FEET. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER
SEAS AND WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NOW
THAT SKIES HAVE CLEARED A LITTLE OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS.
MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERTAKING BILGE CAPACITY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS THE VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
WAIT ON ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT TO MOVE IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 71 86 70 / 50 30 50 40
BTR 88 72 88 72 / 50 30 50 40
MSY 90 76 88 76 / 30 30 50 30
GPT 90 74 88 74 / 30 30 40 30



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-25-2009 05:28 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS
MORNING...AND EXTENDS ALONG A LOW CLOUD LINE FROM NEAR KMEI-KHBG-
JUST WEST OF KHDC-KPTN LINE. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL OUT AGAIN SOON
GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EAST OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE FROM THE EAST WHICH
IS CREATING SOME MODEST CONVERGENCE AND DECENT COVERAGE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVING AS
FORECAST YESTERDAY...BASICALLY IN A COUNTER CLOCKWISE LOOP AROUND
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA/COLORADO BORDER AREA. THE EAST NORTHEAST TO
WEST S0UTHWEST ORIENTED MID/UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF OUR
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW RAIN
COVERAGE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE MOVE SOUTH THEN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ONLY
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN AGAIN...HOWEVER...THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURS
WITH THE SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE. HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT...COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN...SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING
SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP INTO A STRONG
WAVE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET RE-ENERGIZED AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE POOLING OF DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND MAY BRING A LATE NIGHT BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL LANDS AREAS ON SATURDAY AS THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STORM MOTIONS OPPOSING THE PROPAGATION
VECTORS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FLAT UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
STARTING SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH THE
ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN HOT
AND STILL HUMID...THEN THE SECONDARY WEST-EAST FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE LONG AWAITED SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
AT BTR AND MCB. EXPECT VLIFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
MVFR TO IFR AT GPT AND MSY. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH
HAS SLOWLY EDGED EAST AND IS ALIGNED FROM NEAR PATTERSON LA TO
HAMMOND. SHOULD SEE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL SITE TO GET ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
NEAR SUNSET LEAVING ONLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME BEFORE THEY DECAY
AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY
RESULTING IN SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER SEAS AND
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS NE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE MISS R. MAIN CONCERN WITH
STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVERTAKING BILGE
CAPACITY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
THE OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
ALIGN ITSELF FROM E TO W THEN STALL THROUGH TUE. A STRONGER SURGE
OF DRY AIR WILL FILTER DOWN BY TUE EVENING INTO WED CAUSING THE
SH/TS TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 70 85 67 / 30 40 70 20
BTR 89 72 87 69 / 30 30 70 20
MSY 89 76 86 73 / 40 30 70 30
GPT 89 74 86 71 / 40 30 70 30



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-25-2009 10:09 AM

[Image: image2.gif]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-25-2009 11:58 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 251334
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
834 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH A PW OF 1.88 INCHES...HOWEVER STILL A GOOD BIT OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH AN
LI OF -6.1...THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALOFT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS
MORNING...AND EXTENDS ALONG A LOW CLOUD LINE FROM NEAR KMEI-KHBG-
JUST WEST OF KHDC-KPTN LINE. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL OUT AGAIN SOON
GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EAST OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE FROM THE EAST WHICH
IS CREATING SOME MODEST CONVERGENCE AND DECENT COVERAGE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVING AS
FORECAST YESTERDAY...BASICALLY IN A COUNTER CLOCKWISE LOOP AROUND
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA/COLORADO BORDER AREA. THE EAST NORTHEAST TO
WEST S0UTHWEST ORIENTED MID/UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF OUR
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW RAIN
COVERAGE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE MOVE SOUTH THEN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ONLY
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN AGAIN...HOWEVER...THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURS
WITH THE SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE. HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT...COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN...SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING
SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP INTO A STRONG
WAVE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET RE-ENERGIZED AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE POOLING OF DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND MAY BRING A LATE NIGHT BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL LANDS AREAS ON SATURDAY AS THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STORM MOTIONS OPPOSING THE PROPAGATION
VECTORS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FLAT UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
STARTING SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH THE
ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM BEING TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN HOT
AND STILL HUMID...THEN THE SECONDARY WEST-EAST FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE LONG AWAITED SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

22/TD

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
AT BTR AND MCB. EXPECT VLIFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
MVFR TO IFR AT GPT AND MSY. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH
HAS SLOWLY EDGED EAST AND IS ALIGNED FROM NEAR PATTERSON LA TO
HAMMOND. SHOULD SEE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL SITE TO GET ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
NEAR SUNSET LEAVING ONLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME BEFORE THEY DECAY
AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY
RESULTING IN SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER SEAS AND
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS NE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE MISS R. MAIN CONCERN WITH
STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVERTAKING BILGE
CAPACITY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
THE OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
ALIGN ITSELF FROM E TO W THEN STALL THROUGH TUE. A STRONGER SURGE
OF DRY AIR WILL FILTER DOWN BY TUE EVENING INTO WED CAUSING THE
SH/TS TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 85 67 90 / 40 70 20 10
BTR 72 87 69 91 / 30 70 20 10
MSY 76 86 73 89 / 30 70 30 10
GPT 74 86 71 90 / 30 70 30 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-26-2009 05:47 AM

From N.O. NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS FINALLY ON THE MOVE
THIS MORNING. AS IT GETS KICKED OFF TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...IT
WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE NEAR
TERM A MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL JET
EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND TWO INCHES OR BETTER AND
THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW
MOVING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. A
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. 11

.LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW/TOUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING INTO THE THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY
RAINFALL AT ALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 11

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AT
BTR AND MCB. EXPECT VLIFR TO LIFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS AND MVFR
TO IFR AT GPT AND MSY. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EARLIER TODAY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MSY TAKEOFFS AND APPROACHES
TO AND FROM 310-060 DEGREES WILL NEED TO MONITOR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND FORCE THE STALLED BOUNDARY INTO
THE GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. 17

&&

.MARINE...
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TODAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS NE ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE MISS R. MAIN
CONCERN WITH STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERTAKING BILGE CAPACITY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS. THE OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND ALIGN ITSELF FROM E TO W THEN STALL THROUGH TUE JUST
OUTSIDE THE 60NM MARK. A STRONGER SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FILTER DOWN
BY TUE CAUSING THE SH/TS TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE AND NE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 67 89 67 / 70 20 10 0
BTR 86 69 90 69 / 70 20 10 0
MSY 87 73 89 73 / 70 30 10 10
GPT 87 71 90 70 / 70 30 10 10