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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-11-2009 03:46 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 110823
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. STILL A WEAK
TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND REMAINING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO COME
ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY OVER TERREBONNE AND
LAFOURCHE PARISHES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH DEW
POINTS RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST SCENARIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...AT
LEAST AS IT APPLIES TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
TEXAS COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH
UNTIL SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES.

GFS SOLUTION AGAIN APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM SOME FEEDBACK
ISSUES...AND GUIDANCE POPS FROM THE MAV APPEAR SLIGHTLY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS TODAY...AND CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST ON SATURDAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS TRY TO
INGEST SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE COLUMN ON SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES STILL 1.75 TO 2 INCHES EVEN THEN. WILL GO WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ON SUNDAY.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. FFGUID
VALUES ARE 3+ INCHES FOR ONE HOUR IN MOST PLACES...AND 4-5 INCHES
IN 6 HOURS. HPC HAS BEEN PAINTING 4-6 INCH 5 DAY TOTALS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. AS IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE
SEEING THE RAIN SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS...FLASH FLOODING DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...AT LEAST OVER A LARGE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE ESF HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS...AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT ODDS AS TO SCENARIO WITH THE UPPER LOW.
BOTH MODELS KEEP THE LOW FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE GFS LIFTS IT OUT...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO
MAKE FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IN HOPES THAT A
COMMON SOLUTION BECOMES APPARENT IN THE NEXT RUN OR TWO. 35 &&

.AVIATION...
WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO THE LIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES QUITE AS MUCH EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
AT KMCB DUE TO MAINLY STRATUS. OTHERWISE...AM LOOKING FOR NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA TODAY MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 18
&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WEST
GULF OF MEXICO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKING BACK...00Z THURSDAY GFS MODEL RUN
SHOWED BL WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF THE RIVER FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AROUND 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF BL WINDS MIXED DOWN. GFS AND
EURO ARE NOW SHOWING BL WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY INCREASE TIDE LEVELS
AROUND 2 FEET...WHICH MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG HAN**** COUNTY. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT DUE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
INSERT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT EAST OF
RIVER DUE TO 90 PERCENT BL WINDS MIXING DOWN TO SEA SURFACE. WIND
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES BY SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBLE LOW MOVES NORTH.
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL START AS A WARM CORE
SYSTEM BUT BECOME A COLD CORE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. A GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DEEPENS. 18
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 71 83 72 / 70 50 80 60
BTR 85 73 83 73 / 70 60 80 60
MSY 84 76 84 75 / 70 60 80 60
GPT 85 73 84 75 / 60 50 70 60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-12-2009 04:10 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 120842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF HOUSTON EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE UPPER
VORT IS MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT 08Z...WITH A SECOND ONE
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST. ONE FAIRLY HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND INTERSTATE 12.
MORE PRECIPITATION STILL OFFSHORE. MOST AREAS STILL IN THE MIDDLE
70S THIS MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
GULF LOW WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAYS
BATCH OF RUNS INDICATED THROUGH MONDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
THROUGH MONDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT...THEN CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THIS WILL
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. NAM/GFS MODELS
BOTH HAVING ISSUES WITH SPURIOUS PRECIPITATION BULLSEYES...AND
WILL GENERALLY GO WITH HPC QPF FORECASTS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER FLOODING...BUT SINCE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY OUT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS...AND ABOVE CLIMO FOR
LOWS IN THIS VERY WET AIRMASS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO DEPART THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AIRMASS NEVER REALLY DRIES OUT UNTIL ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY. WILL NEED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOST CONVECTION
PROBABLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED HOURS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE NO REAL REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO LONG TERM PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST BUT EVEN W/OUT THE
RAIN CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND IFR TO MVFR STATUS THROUGH THE
MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK CIGS WILL LIKELY HOVER RIGHT AROUND MVFR
STATUS THROUGH THE DAY. OF COURSE WITH CONVECTION CIGS AND EVEN
VISBIES COULD SIGNIFICANTLY FALL INTO IFR STATUS WITH VISBIES
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO LIFR STATUS. /CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO CHURN WITH ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ON THE LA COAST ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS WAVE HAS ACTUALLY CAUSED A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE WINDS WERE
RANGING FROM 15-20KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABV 20KTS. SEAS HAVE
ALSO STARTED TO INCREASE WITH BUOY 42040 SHOWING SEAS UP TO 6 FT
42007 WAS UP TO 5 FT BY 8Z. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABV 20KTS
OCCURRING IN THE TWO MARINE ZONES EAST OF THE SW PASS OF THE MS
RIVER WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADV THROUGH 18Z. IN OUR OTHER
MARINE ZONES EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS WAVE WILL START
PUSH EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SLACK OFF
SOME BY MIDDAY BUT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES. MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THIS COULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES. /CAB/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 71 85 73 / 80 60 70 50
BTR 84 72 86 74 / 80 60 70 40
MSY 83 74 86 75 / 80 60 70 50
GPT 83 74 84 75 / 80 60 70 50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
ROUGE...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND WEST BATON ROUGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-13-2009 03:26 AM

US64 KLIX 130426
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009

.AVIATION...
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY
PREVAILING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY EVENING. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND TRIMMED POPS BACK TO
SCATTERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. UPPER IMPULSE HAS MOVED
RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP. WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD SUNRISE...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NO LONG
EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODEL QPF FROM NAM/GFS 00Z
RUNS. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD UPPER LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS AS SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN PLAY TODAY IS ROTATING JUST OFF THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THE BULK OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS SERN TX AND SWRN LA. A LARGER BAND
OF SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS HEADING TOWARDS THE SERN LA
COASTLINE CURRENTLY. STILL DECENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
TO LIKELY FILL IN WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

A FEW LOCALIZED FEATURES TO TAKE NOTE OF. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MESO LOW
THAT REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE MOST PART NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND IS DISSIPATING BUT STILL LEAVING ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE TIDAL LAKES.
THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH TIME. VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM LIX RADAR INDICATES INCREASING HELICITY WITH 30KT ERLY WINDS
JUST OFF THE SFC AND SWRLY WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THAT.
MORE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THEY HAVE DISPLAYED A DEVIANT MOTION TO THE
MEAN FLOW. THIS INDICATES THAT STEER FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY FARTHER
SOUTH BUT THIS IS MORE LIKELY DUE TO GRAVITY WAVE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT CAN BE SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE. THE COMBINATION OF GREATER
INSTABILITY AND MORE SHEAR HAS RESULTED IN THIS MORE CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SFC LOW OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN LA AND OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL
SHIFT NORTH AND BE FOCUSED ALONG SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTER OF THE LOW THROUGH COASTAL MS.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT HRS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SFC LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL PERSIST AND
RAIN APPEARS TO BE LIKELY TO DEFINITE. ANOTHER INCH OR 2 AND
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
LOWER 80S WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

UPPER LOW GRADUALLY DRIFT ENEWD THROUGH MID WEEK. SHWR/TSRM
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE ALBEIT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL BE THE OPPOSITE WITH
FEWER SHWRS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL.

MEFFER

MARINE...
DISTINCTIVE EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BARRIER ISLANDS.
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTH OF BOUNDARY BUT FALL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE MORE PREVALENT. NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING AS WARM FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE INTO MISSISSIPPI. ENHANCED TIDES SHOULD ALSO ABATE
IN TIME DURING THE NEXT LUNAR TIDE CYCLE BUT MAY STILL RUN ABOUT 1
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL NEXT LOW TIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND
TONIGHT...RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS AROUND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 82 72 85 / 30 70 60 70
BTR 72 81 74 86 / 30 70 50 70
MSY 74 84 75 86 / 30 70 50 70
GPT 74 85 75 86 / 30 60 60 70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-13-2009 01:15 PM

LIX: New Orleans [Orleans Co, LA] emergency mngr reports FLASH FLOOD at 12:30 PM CDT -- a couple of vehicles stranded in flooded underpass at downman road and haynes blvd. some street flooding near lakefront airport


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 09-13-2009 01:32 PM

Local TV station had the words "Urban Flood Warning". Have never seen them use the word "urban" before. Odd that they never did.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-13-2009 01:44 PM

LIX: 4 Sw Waveland [Han**** Co, MS] law enforcement reports WATER SPOUT at 01:42 PM CDT -- waterspout sighted from beach blvd near silver slipper casino. klix wsr-88d radar shows rotating cell approx 2 miles ssw of bayou clear...moving ene. reported by han**** 911.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-14-2009 05:48 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2009

...WET PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY AS A STRONG IMPULSE MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION. ANOTHER ONE IS ALREADY MOVING TWDS THE AREA BUT THERE
MAY BE LESS ACTIVITY TODAY. AT 6Z MOST OF THE CWA WAS QUIET BUT THE
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MS HAD A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT IS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK MOVING OFF TO THE NE.

TODAY VERY WELL COULD BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY BUT I AM NOT
QUITE SURE ABOUT THAT NOW. FIRST THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA LATER THIS
MORNING. ALSO WE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE UNDER THE LFQ OF ANOTHER JET
STREAK. THESE TWO FEATURES ALONE WERE ABLE TO GET WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION YESTERDAY BUT THAT WAS IN A VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH
PWS NEAR 2.25" AND VERY HIGH LL THETA E AIR. THE AIRMASS IS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH IN MOISTURE CONTENT NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY
WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. LL
MOISTURE WILL BE WORSE AS NEGATIVE H85 THETA E AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY(COULD DROP TO AROUND
335K). K INDICIES WILL ALSO FALL FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S. THAT SAID IT IS NOT LIKE WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...PWS WILL STILL BE BETWEEN 1.75-1.9" AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF
LIFT WE WILL HAVE THERE WILL BE CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE SCT TO NUM AND NOT WIDESPREAD. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PUSH TO THE NE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS
AND COULD PUSH INTO EXTREME SERN LA AND COASTAL MS. AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES OUT TO THE NE LOOK FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
AROUND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTN WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DISTURBANCE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA BUT A
SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND THIS MAY HELP KEEP SCT NOCTURNAL SHRA OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY
ISLTD SHRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN FOR A
FEW SVR STORMS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH I AM EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE THIS
COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SFC LOW STILL OVER
THE SABINE RIVER BASIN/TOLEDO BEND AREA WE WILL HAVE SOME LL SHEAR
TO WORK WITH. WITH THAT WATERSPOUTS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK TORNADOES
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED TUE. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THESE APPEAR TO BE COMING PRETTY REGULARLY AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WHICH BY TUE WILL ONLY BE OVER THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX.
AGAIN WE WILL NOT BE IN THAT RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
IN BUT WITH THE LIFT...MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
MAYBE EVEN A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT FROM OUR SFC LOW WHICH WILL MOVE
NE INTO NRN MS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. THIS WEAK
FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH DRIER LL AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS SRN MS AND MAYBE JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO LA AS WELL WED
MORNING...ESLEWHERE LOOK FOR LOWER 70S. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...THE PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE BUT BY THU
THE UPPER LOW MAY START TO LIFT OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
SHOWING SOME FORM OF THIS AND THEN THEY HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HAND
EVEN WITH THE HUGE DIFFERENCES THEY BOTH STILL KEEP OUR CWA IN WSW
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BASICALLY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FCST EVERYDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN BUT THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK NE WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN GULF THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL OUT BUT WITH PWS OF 1.5-1.75" AND WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LOOK FOR DAILY SHRA AND TSRA WITH
ACTIVITY DECREASING OVER THE LAND AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
COVERAGE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND WITH THE DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE LOOK FOR HIGHS
TO BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS AGAIN TODAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY...RESULTING IN IFR OR LIFR VSBYS AT
LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM INDUCED WINDS...EXPECT SE WINDS
10 KTS OR LESS. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KTS AS WELL AS WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY MIDWEEK. 95/DM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 71 84 64 / 60 50 60 20
BTR 82 71 85 67 / 50 50 50 20
MSY 87 74 87 72 / 50 30 40 20
GPT 85 76 86 72 / 70 30 50 20



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-14-2009 06:21 AM

[Image: image1.gif]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-15-2009 04:50 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED THERE WAS LESS ACTIVITY YESTERDAY THANKS
TO THE DRIER AIR THAT HAD MOVED IN BUT THIS JUST ALLOWED THE AREA
TO WARM UP PRETTY GOOD LEADING TO HIGHS RIGHT AROUND TO JUST ABV
NORMAL. OUR UPPER LOW IS STILL SPINNING AROUND THE ARKLATEX WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. A BROAD SFC LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN LA AT 7Z WITH A WEAK BNDRY/WIND SHIFT MOVING
THROUGH CNTRL AND S-CNTRL LA.

TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE AGAIN AND WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED
IN WV WORKING EAST FROM THE TX BIG BEND AREA AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO THE SRN STREAM JET WILL
INITIALLY BE RIGHT OVERHEAD BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES IT SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH A TAD PUTTING THE NRN/NWRN HALF OF THE CWA BACK IN THAT LFQ.
AT THE SFC OUR BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO
THE NE WITH THAT WIND SHIFT LINE MOVING INTO OUR WRN ZONES
ALREADY(7Z). ISLTD TO SCT SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WERE
OCCURRING IN THE GULF BUT A FEW SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER LAND WELL
AHEAD OVER OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ABOUT HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE MIXING OUT BY MIDDAY. AS FOR MOISTURE INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR IN THE LL MOVING IN BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT
BUT THIS SHOULD END AROUND MIDDAY WITH SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
LATE IN THE AFTN. PWS WILL HANG AROUND 1.75-1.9" ALL DAY WHILE K
INDICIES WILL BEGIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE K INDEX COULD
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 30S AS THAT MOISTURE INCREASE THIS AFTN
OCCURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MODEST THETA E ADV AT H85 FROM THE
WEST BUT LOOK FOR NEGATIVE THETA E AIR ADV THROUGH THE MORNING HRS
AND THIS SHOULD HURT RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING.

WELL WITH ALL OF THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
SHRA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS. BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OUT WEST AS WE BEGIN
TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE AND MOVE UNDER THE LFQ
OF THE JET. MOISTURE INITIALLY WILL BE A PROBLEM BUT BY AFTN HRS WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BTR TO TYLERTOWN DURING THE AFTN. THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY
TO SEE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES AND IN THE
GULF.

CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVEN HRS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAND AREAS. HEADING INTO TOMORROW IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
STILL BASICALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. THE MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S SO THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH OF THE
SAME WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NWRN HALF BUT I
COULD SEE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT A LITTLE FASTER TOMORROW THAN WHAT
I AM EXPECTING TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PACKAGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE OUR UPPER LOW BUT BOTH END
UP SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH THIS ONE
KICKED OUT AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE FCST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS.

THU THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR SCT SHRA AND TSRA TO
CONTINUE. WE WILL STILL SEE DECENT LIFT THANKS TO OUR UPPER LOW. BY
FRI AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADA TWRDS THE NE IT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBTLE INFLUENCES ON OUR UPPER LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE
A PIECE OF IT WILL KICK OUT TO THE NE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF IT WILL
RETROGRADE AND MERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUR OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION EACH DAY. BY MON THINGS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE SOME AS A
POTENT S/W DROPS SE OUT OF WRN CANADA. THIS OPEN UP THE SRN PLAINS
UPPER LOW AND CAUSES IT TO MERGE WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM CREATING
A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THIS COULD ACTUALLY FORCE A
COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS BY TUE/WED. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KMCB IN THE LAST HOUR...AS THE WEAK
INVERSION TAKES HOLD. AS EXPECTED...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT MUCH FOG FORMATION THE REGION. AT
KGPT...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF BROKEN RANGE...WITH
OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE MVFR RANGE. AT KMSY AND
KGPT...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK AT BOTH LOCATIONS. HEADING INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS HARD TO
PREDICT...SO WILL LEAVE IT UP TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT LOOKS TO THREATEN THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH OVERALL SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST. 32

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO EASILY MIX
DOWN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GULF STATES. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT STILL EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. WITH THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS...OVERALL SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...WITH A MODERATE CHOP IN
THE PROTECTED WATERS. THE LAKE WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDFLOW...AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD SEE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE LOW TO
SHEAR OUT...AS A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 70 84 68 / 60 40 60 40
BTR 88 71 86 70 / 50 40 50 40
MSY 88 74 85 73 / 40 30 50 40
GPT 85 76 84 73 / 40 30 50 40



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-15-2009 07:13 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 150846
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED THERE WAS LESS ACTIVITY YESTERDAY THANKS
TO THE DRIER AIR THAT HAD MOVED IN BUT THIS JUST ALLOWED THE AREA
TO WARM UP PRETTY GOOD LEADING TO HIGHS RIGHT AROUND TO JUST ABV
NORMAL. OUR UPPER LOW IS STILL SPINNING AROUND THE ARKLATEX WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. A BROAD SFC LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN LA AT 7Z WITH A WEAK BNDRY/WIND SHIFT MOVING
THROUGH CNTRL AND S-CNTRL LA.

TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE AGAIN AND WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED
IN WV WORKING EAST FROM THE TX BIG BEND AREA AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO THE SRN STREAM JET WILL
INITIALLY BE RIGHT OVERHEAD BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES IT SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH A TAD PUTTING THE NRN/NWRN HALF OF THE CWA BACK IN THAT LFQ.
AT THE SFC OUR BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO
THE NE WITH THAT WIND SHIFT LINE MOVING INTO OUR WRN ZONES
ALREADY(7Z). ISLTD TO SCT SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WERE
OCCURRING IN THE GULF BUT A FEW SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER LAND WELL
AHEAD OVER OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ABOUT HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE MIXING OUT BY MIDDAY. AS FOR MOISTURE INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR IN THE LL MOVING IN BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT
BUT THIS SHOULD END AROUND MIDDAY WITH SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
LATE IN THE AFTN. PWS WILL HANG AROUND 1.75-1.9" ALL DAY WHILE K
INDICIES WILL BEGIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE K INDEX COULD
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 30S AS THAT MOISTURE INCREASE THIS AFTN
OCCURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MODEST THETA E ADV AT H85 FROM THE
WEST BUT LOOK FOR NEGATIVE THETA E AIR ADV THROUGH THE MORNING HRS
AND THIS SHOULD HURT RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING.

WELL WITH ALL OF THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
SHRA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS. BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OUT WEST AS WE BEGIN
TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE AND MOVE UNDER THE LFQ
OF THE JET. MOISTURE INITIALLY WILL BE A PROBLEM BUT BY AFTN HRS WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BTR TO TYLERTOWN DURING THE AFTN. THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY
TO SEE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES AND IN THE
GULF.

CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVEN HRS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAND AREAS. HEADING INTO TOMORROW IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
STILL BASICALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. THE MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S SO THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH OF THE
SAME WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NWRN HALF BUT I
COULD SEE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT A LITTLE FASTER TOMORROW THAN WHAT
I AM EXPECTING TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PACKAGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE OUR UPPER LOW BUT BOTH END
UP SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH THIS ONE
KICKED OUT AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE FCST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS.

THU THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR SCT SHRA AND TSRA TO
CONTINUE. WE WILL STILL SEE DECENT LIFT THANKS TO OUR UPPER LOW. BY
FRI AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADA TWRDS THE NE IT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBTLE INFLUENCES ON OUR UPPER LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE
A PIECE OF IT WILL KICK OUT TO THE NE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF IT WILL
RETROGRADE AND MERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUR OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION EACH DAY. BY MON THINGS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE SOME AS A
POTENT S/W DROPS SE OUT OF WRN CANADA. THIS OPEN UP THE SRN PLAINS
UPPER LOW AND CAUSES IT TO MERGE WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM CREATING
A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THIS COULD ACTUALLY FORCE A
COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS BY TUE/WED. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KMCB IN THE LAST HOUR...AS THE WEAK
INVERSION TAKES HOLD. AS EXPECTED...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT MUCH FOG FORMATION THE REGION. AT
KGPT...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF BROKEN RANGE...WITH
OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE MVFR RANGE. AT KMSY AND
KGPT...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK AT BOTH LOCATIONS. HEADING INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS HARD TO
PREDICT...SO WILL LEAVE IT UP TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT LOOKS TO THREATEN THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH OVERALL SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST. 32

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO EASILY MIX
DOWN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GULF STATES. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT STILL EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. WITH THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS...OVERALL SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...WITH A MODERATE CHOP IN
THE PROTECTED WATERS. THE LAKE WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDFLOW...AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD SEE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE LOW TO
SHEAR OUT...AS A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 70 84 68 / 60 40 60 40
BTR 88 71 86 70 / 50 40 50 40
MSY 88 74 85 73 / 40 30 50 40
GPT 85 76 84 73 / 40 30 50 40