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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-07-2009 05:39 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE
GREATER...BUT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ONLY THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER POPS TODAY...AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PULL TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO FILTER IN. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WHICH
WILL DRIVE DOWN PW VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES FROM THE 2.25
INCHES OBSERVED SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND A
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HAVE WENT WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A WEAK CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED. HOWEVER...A LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT LOW
END CHANCE COVERAGE AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...

LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION EACH DAY. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MARKEDLY FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
AS THIS LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT WILL
TAKE HOLD OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 70-80 KNOT JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
COAST AND STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH STRONG OMEGA
VALUES IN PLACE ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HAVE WENT
WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS AFFECTING THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE KGPT TAF SITE AT TIMES. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WERE RUNNING
THE GAMUT FROM IFR AT KMCB TO VFR AT KMSY AND KBTR. THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z. KGPT AND KMSY MAY BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KBTR AND
KMCB WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE KMSY AND KGPT MAY
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION AT MOST ANY TIME TODAY. THE CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SOME EXTENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY AT KMSY AND KGPT. 11

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
3 FEET OR LESS DURING THE PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 68 89 68 / 30 20 30 20
BTR 90 69 90 69 / 30 20 30 20
MSY 88 75 89 74 / 50 30 40 20
GPT 87 72 88 70 / 50 30 40 20



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-07-2009 06:59 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 070845
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE
GREATER...BUT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ONLY THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER POPS TODAY...AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PULL TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO FILTER IN. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WHICH
WILL DRIVE DOWN PW VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES FROM THE 2.25
INCHES OBSERVED SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND A
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HAVE WENT WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A WEAK CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED. HOWEVER...A LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT LOW
END CHANCE COVERAGE AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...

LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION EACH DAY. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MARKEDLY FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
AS THIS LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT WILL
TAKE HOLD OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 70-80 KNOT JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
COAST AND STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH STRONG OMEGA
VALUES IN PLACE ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HAVE WENT
WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS AFFECTING THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE KGPT TAF SITE AT TIMES. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WERE RUNNING
THE GAMUT FROM IFR AT KMCB TO VFR AT KMSY AND KBTR. THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z. KGPT AND KMSY MAY BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KBTR AND
KMCB WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE KMSY AND KGPT MAY
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION AT MOST ANY TIME TODAY. THE CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SOME EXTENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY AT KMSY AND KGPT. 11

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
3 FEET OR LESS DURING THE PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 68 89 68 / 30 20 30 20
BTR 90 69 90 69 / 30 20 30 20
MSY 88 75 89 74 / 50 30 40 20
GPT 87 72 88 70 / 50 30 40 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...LIVINGSTON...ST. JAMES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...AND TANGIPAHOA.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-08-2009 04:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
314 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TWO TROUGH BOUNDARIES ARE SEEN THIS MORNING. THE OBVIOUS ONE IS
FOUND FROM THE ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL FLA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
TO SOUTH OF BRN. THE SECOND IS NOT AS NOTICEABLE. IT BSICALLY
DRAPES THE GULF COAST FROM THE TX COASTAL BEND UP TO LCH THEN UP
TOWARD MCB AND IS ONLY FOUND AT 925 TO ABOUT 850MB. A SFC LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY FORM WHERE THESE TWO BOUNDARIES INTERSECT NEAR BRN.
THIS SHOULD TAKE SHAPE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

.LONG TERM...
AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING WEST OVER FLA WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE GULF BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH FRI. THE "WARM FRONT" SHOULD PASS THE AREA SAT. AS THE
STRONGER GULF BOUNDARY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE WEAKER ONE...IT WILL
PROVIDE THE CONDUIT FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO RIDE ALONG AND
EVENTUALLY THE SFC LOW ITSELF BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 8Z VFR CONDITIONS WERE PREVAILING AT ALL SITES BUT
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL A GOOD
BIT OF LL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISBIES DROPPING INTO MVFR STATUS OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE AREA.
BTR/MCB/HDC/ASD SHOULD SEE VISBIES FALL INTO IFR STATUS FOR A SHORT
TIME. LOW CIGS COULD ALSO DEVELOP. AFTER SUNRISE THINGS SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH ALL SITES BACK IN VFR NO LATER THAN 14Z. AS FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES. SEAS WILL ALSO MAINLY
REMAIN AT 2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A
LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CNTRL CONUS
JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL US WHICH COULD INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE EXTREME WRN GULF. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST FLOW PICKING UP WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD
TO HIGHER SEAS. /CAB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 69 89 67 / 30 20 30 20
BTR 91 70 91 69 / 30 20 30 20
MSY 89 75 88 74 / 40 20 30 20
GPT 88 71 87 70 / 40 20 30 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-09-2009 05:31 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS SLOWLY SINKING INTO SOME OF THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP CAP A MAJORITY OF
SH/TS ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL MISS. SHOULD SEE A STRONG POP GRADIENT
OUT THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT BETTER THAN AVERAGE POP NUMBERS. THU WILL SEE THE
STATIONARY TROUGH OVER FLA GET SHOVED BACK NORTH A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRONG UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRY REGION
TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH(SEEN NICELY ON WV IMAGERY) TO ALSO GET
FORCED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT
ON SH/TS PRODUCTION. NOT SURE WHY THE GFS IS KEEPING VERY HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL
BEGIN TO REACT WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY
FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF FRI. SOME EXCITMENT COULD BE
SEEN DURING THIS TIME AS WE SEE THIS BOUNDARY GET SHOVED BACK TO THE
NORTH WHILE A SFC LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND.
THE LOW WILL ALSO HELP FORCE THE OLD BOUNDARY NORTH CAUSING IT ACT
LIKE A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL AGAIN PUSH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA CAUSING SH/TS TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG THE NEW BOUNDARY
THAT STALLS FROM NEAR BRN TO AEX NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ONE CAN FIND A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH EVERY MODEL. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE SECONDARY SFC LOW
DEVELOPING AGAIN ALONG THE NEW BOUNDARY NEAR BRN. THE MAIN FORCING
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE WILL BE INTO THE SE. THIS LEADS ME
TO BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING THE DRY
AIR BEHIND IT...WHICH IS WHY THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON A SFC LOW FORMS
NEAR BRN AND FORCES THE BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUE
OR WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OF COURSE MCB AS ALWAYS WILL BE THE
PROBLEM SITE AND IT ALREADY IS WITH LIGHT BR CAUSING VISBIES TO DROP
INTO MVFR STATUS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LL MOISTURE THAT I COULD SEE
MCB DROP INTO IFR STATUS FOR A LITTLE WHILE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
I MAINLY EXPECT VISBIES OF 3-5SM THROUGH 13Z. BTR MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO
MVFR VISBIES BUT ELSEWHERE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD SHOULD HELP KEEP VISBIES GREATER THAN 6SM. CIGS
MAY BE THE ONLY ISSUE IF EARLY MORNING SHRA CAN MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF. ONCE AGAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED AND OF COURSE THIS WOULD
CAUSE VISBIES AND CIGS TO DROP IF THEY MOVE OVERHEAD BUT OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION TODAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SAME
TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND
AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EXTREME WRN GULF. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MOSTLY MODERATE ERLY FLOW FRI THEN
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO NEAR 15KTS(POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20KTS) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH
5-6FT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD ALSO BRING
ABOUT SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE ARE STILL A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES LIKE HOW DEEP A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP...TRACK...SPEED. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 69 89 70 / 50 20 40 20
BTR 91 71 91 72 / 50 20 40 20
MSY 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 30 20
GPT 88 71 88 71 / 30 20 30 20



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-09-2009 08:14 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 090913
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS SLOWLY SINKING INTO SOME OF THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP CAP A MAJORITY OF
SH/TS ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL MISS. SHOULD SEE A STRONG POP GRADIENT
OUT THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT BETTER THAN AVERAGE POP NUMBERS. THU WILL SEE THE
STATIONARY TROUGH OVER FLA GET SHOVED BACK NORTH A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRONG UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRY REGION
TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH(SEEN NICELY ON WV IMAGERY) TO ALSO GET
FORCED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT
ON SH/TS PRODUCTION. NOT SURE WHY THE GFS IS KEEPING VERY HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL
BEGIN TO REACT WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY
FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF FRI. SOME EXCITMENT COULD BE
SEEN DURING THIS TIME AS WE SEE THIS BOUNDARY GET SHOVED BACK TO THE
NORTH WHILE A SFC LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND.
THE LOW WILL ALSO HELP FORCE THE OLD BOUNDARY NORTH CAUSING IT ACT
LIKE A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL AGAIN PUSH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA CAUSING SH/TS TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG THE NEW BOUNDARY
THAT STALLS FROM NEAR BRN TO AEX NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ONE CAN FIND A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH EVERY MODEL. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE SECONDARY SFC LOW
DEVELOPING AGAIN ALONG THE NEW BOUNDARY NEAR BRN. THE MAIN FORCING
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE WILL BE INTO THE SE. THIS LEADS ME
TO BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING THE DRY
AIR BEHIND IT...WHICH IS WHY THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON A SFC LOW FORMS
NEAR BRN AND FORCES THE BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUE
OR WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OF COURSE MCB AS ALWAYS WILL BE THE
PROBLEM SITE AND IT ALREADY IS WITH LIGHT BR CAUSING VISBIES TO DROP
INTO MVFR STATUS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LL MOISTURE THAT I COULD SEE
MCB DROP INTO IFR STATUS FOR A LITTLE WHILE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
I MAINLY EXPECT VISBIES OF 3-5SM THROUGH 13Z. BTR MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO
MVFR VISBIES BUT ELSEWHERE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD SHOULD HELP KEEP VISBIES GREATER THAN 6SM. CIGS
MAY BE THE ONLY ISSUE IF EARLY MORNING SHRA CAN MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF. ONCE AGAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED AND OF COURSE THIS WOULD
CAUSE VISBIES AND CIGS TO DROP IF THEY MOVE OVERHEAD BUT OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION TODAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SAME
TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND
AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EXTREME WRN GULF. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MOSTLY MODERATE ERLY FLOW FRI THEN
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO NEAR 15KTS(POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20KTS) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH
5-6FT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD ALSO BRING
ABOUT SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE ARE STILL A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES LIKE HOW DEEP A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP...TRACK...SPEED. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 69 89 70 / 50 20 40 20
BTR 91 71 91 72 / 50 20 40 20
MSY 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 30 20
GPT 88 71 88 71 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-09-2009 12:05 PM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 090913
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS SLOWLY SINKING INTO SOME OF THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP CAP A MAJORITY OF
SH/TS ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL MISS. SHOULD SEE A STRONG POP GRADIENT
OUT THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT BETTER THAN AVERAGE POP NUMBERS. THU WILL SEE THE
STATIONARY TROUGH OVER FLA GET SHOVED BACK NORTH A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRONG UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRY REGION
TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH(SEEN NICELY ON WV IMAGERY) TO ALSO GET
FORCED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT
ON SH/TS PRODUCTION. NOT SURE WHY THE GFS IS KEEPING VERY HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL
BEGIN TO REACT WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY
FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF FRI. SOME EXCITMENT COULD BE
SEEN DURING THIS TIME AS WE SEE THIS BOUNDARY GET SHOVED BACK TO THE
NORTH WHILE A SFC LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND.
THE LOW WILL ALSO HELP FORCE THE OLD BOUNDARY NORTH CAUSING IT ACT
LIKE A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL AGAIN PUSH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA CAUSING SH/TS TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG THE NEW BOUNDARY
THAT STALLS FROM NEAR BRN TO AEX NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ONE CAN FIND A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH EVERY MODEL. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE SECONDARY SFC LOW
DEVELOPING AGAIN ALONG THE NEW BOUNDARY NEAR BRN. THE MAIN FORCING
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE WILL BE INTO THE SE. THIS LEADS ME
TO BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING THE DRY
AIR BEHIND IT...WHICH IS WHY THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON A SFC LOW FORMS
NEAR BRN AND FORCES THE BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUE
OR WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OF COURSE MCB AS ALWAYS WILL BE THE
PROBLEM SITE AND IT ALREADY IS WITH LIGHT BR CAUSING VISBIES TO DROP
INTO MVFR STATUS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LL MOISTURE THAT I COULD SEE
MCB DROP INTO IFR STATUS FOR A LITTLE WHILE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
I MAINLY EXPECT VISBIES OF 3-5SM THROUGH 13Z. BTR MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO
MVFR VISBIES BUT ELSEWHERE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD SHOULD HELP KEEP VISBIES GREATER THAN 6SM. CIGS
MAY BE THE ONLY ISSUE IF EARLY MORNING SHRA CAN MOVE INLAND FROM THE
GULF. ONCE AGAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED AND OF COURSE THIS WOULD
CAUSE VISBIES AND CIGS TO DROP IF THEY MOVE OVERHEAD BUT OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION TODAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SAME
TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND
AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EXTREME WRN GULF. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH MOSTLY MODERATE ERLY FLOW FRI THEN
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO NEAR 15KTS(POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20KTS) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH
5-6FT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD ALSO BRING
ABOUT SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE ARE STILL A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES LIKE HOW DEEP A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP...TRACK...SPEED. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 69 89 70 / 50 20 40 20
BTR 91 71 91 72 / 50 20 40 20
MSY 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 30 20
GPT 88 71 88 71 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-09-2009 12:09 PM

SkyWarn Training Schedule
by NWS Forecast Office
Slidell, Louisiana
Severe Weather/Storm Spotter - Training Sessions


SPONSER: City of Waveland Fire Department

DATE: Wednesday, Sep 16, 2009

TIME: 10:00AM - 1130AM

LOCATION: Civic Center, 335 Coleman Ave, Waveland, Mississippi 39576

CONTACT: City of Waveland Fire Department (228-467-6154)

NWS CONTACT: If you plan to attend please e-mail the Warning Coordination
Meteorologist (Frank Revitte)at [email protected]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-10-2009 06:20 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO TO COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEEING QUITE A BIT OF
BLOOMING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF IN THE LAST 15-30 MINUTES.
STILL ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FOG...BUT NO OBS SITES HAVING SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS YET. TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...WITH DEW POINTS
LAGGING THOSE LEVELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IN ONE WORD...WET.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ON
THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING. THESE VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WARM
CORE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. 00Z/06Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE CENTER...WITH IT LOCATED JUST OFF THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR HOUSTON AT MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING IT INLAND
NEAR BEAUMONT TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL THERE. IN EITHER CASE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ONSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.3 INCHES BY SATURDAY.

00Z GFS SOLUTION APPEARS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...AS NOTED BY THE 5 INCH QPF BULLSEYE NEAR MCCOMB
TONIGHT...AND DEFINITE POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS TODAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...WHICH
HAS NOT HAD THE DRIER AIR SCOURED OUT QUITE YET. THIS IS BELOW MAV
VALUES BUT ABOVE MET. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DIURNAL HEATING FAVORED HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST
CONVECTION DONE BY 02Z. WILL ONLY GO LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR
NOW...AS TIMING...STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF SYSTEM STILL SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE BUT
BELOW MET GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
WILL TREND EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST TOWARD GFS SOLUTION...WHICH
WILL STILL HAVE RAIN IN THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AND HIGH CHANCE MONDAY BEFORE TRIMMING THEM BACK FOR MIDWEEK.

ONE THING TO NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...EXPECT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES MOST DAYS. WHILE
INDIVIDUAL DAYS MAY ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO HAPPEN FOR ROUGHLY 3 DAYS IN A ROW. NOTED
THAT HPC 5 DAY QPF FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON COVERED MOST OF THE
AREA WITH 3 INCH TOTALS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. WILL ADDRESS IN THE MORNING HWO AS A
STARTER. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE KGPT...KBTR...AND KMCB TAFS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR IN +SHRA AREAS. 18
&&

.MARINE...
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE DEEPNESS OF A
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TO THE
MID SOUTH. WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTENED EVEN WITH GFS...NAM HAS A
DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH SHOW A
WARM CORE AT 5H. BACK TO THE GRADIENT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING UP TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN RELAXING
SOMEWHAT AS THE FEATURE OVER THE GULF MOVES NORTH OVER WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...SURF LOW AND UPPER LOW BECOME MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHIFT EAST TUESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ONTO THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 18
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 70 86 71 / 70 40 60 40
BTR 87 72 86 73 / 70 50 70 50
MSY 86 76 85 76 / 70 40 60 50
GPT 86 72 85 73 / 50 40 60 40



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-10-2009 07:01 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100856
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO TO COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEEING QUITE A BIT OF
BLOOMING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF IN THE LAST 15-30 MINUTES.
STILL ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FOG...BUT NO OBS SITES HAVING SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS YET. TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...WITH DEW POINTS
LAGGING THOSE LEVELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IN ONE WORD...WET.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ON
THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING. THESE VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WARM
CORE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. 00Z/06Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE CENTER...WITH IT LOCATED JUST OFF THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR HOUSTON AT MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING IT INLAND
NEAR BEAUMONT TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL THERE. IN EITHER CASE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ONSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.3 INCHES BY SATURDAY.

00Z GFS SOLUTION APPEARS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...AS NOTED BY THE 5 INCH QPF BULLSEYE NEAR MCCOMB
TONIGHT...AND DEFINITE POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS TODAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...WHICH
HAS NOT HAD THE DRIER AIR SCOURED OUT QUITE YET. THIS IS BELOW MAV
VALUES BUT ABOVE MET. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DIURNAL HEATING FAVORED HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST
CONVECTION DONE BY 02Z. WILL ONLY GO LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR
NOW...AS TIMING...STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF SYSTEM STILL SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE BUT
BELOW MET GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
WILL TREND EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST TOWARD GFS SOLUTION...WHICH
WILL STILL HAVE RAIN IN THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AND HIGH CHANCE MONDAY BEFORE TRIMMING THEM BACK FOR MIDWEEK.

ONE THING TO NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...EXPECT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES MOST DAYS. WHILE
INDIVIDUAL DAYS MAY ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO HAPPEN FOR ROUGHLY 3 DAYS IN A ROW. NOTED
THAT HPC 5 DAY QPF FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON COVERED MOST OF THE
AREA WITH 3 INCH TOTALS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. WILL ADDRESS IN THE MORNING HWO AS A
STARTER. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE KGPT...KBTR...AND KMCB TAFS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR IN +SHRA AREAS. 18
&&

.MARINE...
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE DEEPNESS OF A
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TO THE
MID SOUTH. WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTENED EVEN WITH GFS...NAM HAS A
DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH SHOW A
WARM CORE AT 5H. BACK TO THE GRADIENT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING UP TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN RELAXING
SOMEWHAT AS THE FEATURE OVER THE GULF MOVES NORTH OVER WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...SURF LOW AND UPPER LOW BECOME MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHIFT EAST TUESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ONTO THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 18
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 70 86 71 / 70 40 60 40
BTR 87 72 86 73 / 70 50 70 50
MSY 86 76 85 76 / 70 40 60 50
GPT 86 72 85 73 / 50 40 60 40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-10-2009 07:41 PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook:

Quote:HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-112100-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
700 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE AN ALREADY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...CREATING TIDE LEVELS THAT ARE 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE ELEVATED TIDES MAY HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ACROSS
COASTAL HAN**** COUNTY. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR HAN**** COUNTY FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING
WATER TO POND ON SOME ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL BE MONITORING THE
SITUATION CLOSELY TO DETERMINE IF ANY STATEMENTS...WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

CONCERNING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WATERSPOUTS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE BRIEFLY ONTO
LAND CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE. OVER LAND AREAS...FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER
THE WEEKEND.