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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-31-2009 05:38 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
431 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FRONT HAS SLOWED IT PROGRESS INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING. BUT IT IS
STILL MOVING AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPPER MARITIME RIDGING SEEN FROM THE EAST PAC ALL THE WAY INTO THE
NE GULF. THIS IS ALLOWING A NICE COLUMN OF WEAK LIFT ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL AXIS. THE TROPICAL RECIPE WILL BE THERE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS SO THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE MOST
INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE MAP THIS MORNING IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
NEARING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. MOST GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MS MAY
IMPACT THE KMCB AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...MVFR CIGS NEAR KNBG
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KMSY THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...OTHERWISE DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEEPEN AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NEAR BRETON SOUND TO NEAR
ATCHAFALAYA BAY WILL ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTH GULF WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 63 88 61 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 88 66 89 63 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 88 72 88 71 / 20 10 10 10
GPT 87 66 88 64 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-01-2009 05:17 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 010937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FRONT HAS SETTLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF.
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP...WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
AREA CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER THE GA AND AL AREAS. MAY BE ENOUGH
THOUGH TO BRING A 20% POP BY WED EVENING WITH THE HELP OF BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.

.LONG TERM...
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF. THE WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACT WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE FCAST CYCLE. THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 74W. THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO SET UP BY SEPT
8TH-9TH. CURRENT GRAPHICS ON THE NEW ORLEANS WEB SITE FRONT PAGE
SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH OTHER TROPICAL FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 5 TO 10 KFT WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED
HIGH BASED VFR CATEGORY LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY FEW TO SCT050-060
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 6
MILES WITH NO FOG OR BR EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

22
&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE 60
MILE RING BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DEEPER
INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI BARRIER ISLANDS AND EASTERN INNER WATERS WILL BE 15 TO
18 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS UNTIL 9 AM OR SO THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT.
OTHER AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE EASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOLER DRY AIR
MOVING OVER THE WARM WATER WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS RANGE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHTER EAST
TO AT TIMES SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL LATER IN THE WEEK TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST.

22
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-02-2009 04:56 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
VERY NICE CONDITIONS SEEN FOR THE IMMEDIATE TERM. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. A NEW SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A
SHOWER OR TWO FOR THU AND FRI OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NORTHERLY DRY
WINDS THROUGH SAT.

.LONG TERM...
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND
REACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL HELP A SFC LOW FORM ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE THROUGH MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
REFINE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE OTHER FEATURE IS TS ERIKA. DEFINITELY NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT
IF AT ALL. A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY THE START OF THE WEEK. IF ERIKA WERE TO GET CLOSE TO THE
GULF...THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON IT. OFCOURSE TIMING
IS ALWAYS THE ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AROUND 5-7K FT.

22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE MARINE AREA HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS
ALSO BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS DOWN FROM THE 1-2K FT LAYER. IT
APPEARS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PEAKING IN THE 15-19 KNOTS
RANGE WITH THE OBSERVATIONS NOT SHOWING ANY GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS THE
LAST FEW HOURS. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LAKES AND INNER EASTERN WATERS...AND REPLACED WITH
/SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/ HEADLINE THAT WILL BE VALID FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES UNTIL 9 AM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX QUICKLY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP
RESULTING IN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS AT THE SURFACE UP TO 1K
FEET ARE SHOWING ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 10-15 KNOTS...SO AM NOT
FORECASTING ANYTHING STRONGER THAN THAT TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE ONLY OTHER PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER
WINDS IS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CARRY EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS.

22/TD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 64 89 66 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 88 65 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 87 70 88 72 / 0 0 20 10
GPT 88 66 88 68 / 0 0 20 10



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-02-2009 05:07 AM

0
FXUS64 KLIX 020921
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
VERY NICE CONDITIONS SEEN FOR THE IMMEDIATE TERM. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. A NEW SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A
SHOWER OR TWO FOR THU AND FRI OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NORTHERLY DRY
WINDS THROUGH SAT.

.LONG TERM...
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND
REACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL HELP A SFC LOW FORM ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE THROUGH MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
REFINE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE OTHER FEATURE IS TS ERIKA. DEFINITELY NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT
IF AT ALL. A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY THE START OF THE WEEK. IF ERIKA WERE TO GET CLOSE TO THE
GULF...THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON IT. OFCOURSE TIMING
IS ALWAYS THE ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AROUND 5-7K FT.

22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE MARINE AREA HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS
ALSO BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS DOWN FROM THE 1-2K FT LAYER. IT
APPEARS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PEAKING IN THE 15-19 KNOTS
RANGE WITH THE OBSERVATIONS NOT SHOWING ANY GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS THE
LAST FEW HOURS. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LAKES AND INNER EASTERN WATERS...AND REPLACED WITH
/SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/ HEADLINE THAT WILL BE VALID FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES UNTIL 9 AM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX QUICKLY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP
RESULTING IN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS AT THE SURFACE UP TO 1K
FEET ARE SHOWING ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 10-15 KNOTS...SO AM NOT
FORECASTING ANYTHING STRONGER THAN THAT TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE ONLY OTHER PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER
WINDS IS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CARRY EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS.

22/TD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 64 89 66 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 88 65 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 87 70 88 72 / 0 0 20 10
GPT 88 66 88 68 / 0 0 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-02-2009 01:01 PM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 021746
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2009

.AVIATION...
THE DOWNWARD GLIDE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SUPPRESS ANY
VERTICAL GROWTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ERGO...FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 5 AND 7K FT WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MIDDAY. A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT MIST DEVELOPMENT AT MCB AND
BTR AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 13Z THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-03-2009 04:23 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AS EXPECTED BUT A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVITY IN THE WATERS THAN EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH MID
LEVEL REFLECTION MOVING THROUGH HELPING TO DESTABALIZE THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION/BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS DOES NOTHING WITHOUT SOME
CONNECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ONLY WAY TO GET THE
MOISTURE UP TO 850MB IS BY HEATING AND MIXING. BOTH OF WHICH ARE
NOT FOUND OVER INLAND AREAS. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MIXING THIS NEEDED MOISTURE TO THIS LEVEL. THE
SUPPORT FEATURE(MID LEVEL TROUGH) MOVES EAST TODAY JUST WHEN LAND
AREAS BEGIN TO HEAT UP...SO LONG STORY SHORT...CAN`T GIVE MORE
THAN A 20% POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY. WE WILL HAVE A STRONGLY MIXED
LOW LEVEL WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WHICH INITIALLY PROMPTED ME TO BRING NUMBERS UP TO 30% BUT
WITHOUT THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT...HAD TO BACK OFF TO 20%. CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP NUMBERS GETS HIGHER AS ONE HEADS WEST. CAP AND DRY AIR GETS
SQUEEZED LOWER IN THE SOUNDING KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY STABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOWARD BTR.

AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE
OZARKS. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING MOISTURE AND THE OLD FRONAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH JUST A BIT. SH/TS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GULF STARTING
SAT MORNING. THIS LARGE MOISTURE FLUX DOES NOT STOP BUT DEEPENS AS
WE GET INTO SUN AND MON.

.LONG TERM...
THE OTHER ADDITION TO ALL THIS IS AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT HAS SO FAR
BEEN RELATIVELY INERT. IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT ABOUT 80W. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF ALMOST UNDETECTED UNTIL IT
BEGINS TO COLLIDE AND REACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SAT.
A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THIS AND
MOVE ON STORM MOTION VECTORS TO THE NE. A SFC LOW MAY EVEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUN
AND MON. THIS SFC LOW LOOKS TILTED SOMWHAT BACK TO THE WEST AND
EVEN HAS A SFC TROUGH ATTACHED WHICH RELATES MORE WITH A BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM THAN A TRUE TROPICAL ONE...BUT HAS A STRONG DEEP TROPICAL
FETCH THAT IT TAKES FULL ADVANTAGE OF. THIS WILL ALL CAUSE A
STRONG UPPER VORT TO DROP TO THE BASE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LONG
WAVE TROUGH REINFORCING IT A BIT.

THEN ENTERS ERIKA OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF TUE INTO WED. THE ERIKA
MESS GETS PICKED UP BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND USHERS IT
NORTHWARD. THIS IN TURN CAUSES A HUGE MASS OF DENSE COOL DRY AIR
TO BE DISPLACED FROM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE SOUTH. A
HUGE(WINTERLIKE) UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND DROPS
WELL INTO THE GULF BY FRI OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
TRUE COLD FRONTS SEEN IN A WHILE FOR THIS EARLY IN SEP. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING AND MORE
OR LESS WITH THE FINAL PATH OF ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PLAGUED KGPT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AT THAT TAF SITE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KMSY AND KMCB EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AT KBTR AND KMCB UNTIL AROUND 13Z. BEYOND 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING KMSY AND KGPT...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS CHANCE WILL BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR THESE SITES
AT THIS TIME. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KMCB...KBTR AND
KGPT. 11

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRIDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE OR LESS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 66 88 67 / 10 10 30 20
BTR 90 68 90 70 / 10 10 30 20
MSY 88 71 90 74 / 20 10 20 20
GPT 87 68 88 71 / 20 10 20 20



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-04-2009 05:49 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MOITURE IS RAPIDLY MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET A BETTER COVERAGE TODAY WITH HEATING THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS BAROCLINICITY
INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE OLD FRONTAL AXIS TO HELP DEVELOP A LONG FETCH OF SH/TS
ACTIVITY FROM THE SW GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW
CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST INTENSE
BLOWUPS AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY COME ASHORE BUT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY FROM ALA BACK INTO THE EAST AREAS OF SE LA. BUT EVERYONE
WILL BE GETTING THEIR SHARE OF RAIN BY THE TIME THIS ONE IS IN THE
BOOKS.


.LONG TERM...
IF A SFC LOW DOES FORM ON THE OLD BOUNDARY BY TUE NEAR THE AREA...IT
WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR THE SECOND STRONGER FORCING FEATURE PROVIDED BY
A QUICKLY DIGGING UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE LINE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON A DAILY BASIS COULD SET UP SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 14 OR 15Z. IN ADDITION...MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
KBTR...KMCB AND KGPT. BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY
...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
KBTR AND KMSY TAF SITES AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CEILINGS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 11

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TODAY WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES... WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 11

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 68 86 68 / 30 20 50 30
BTR 89 68 87 69 / 40 20 60 30
MSY 89 72 86 73 / 40 30 60 40
GPT 87 70 85 72 / 30 20 60 40



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-05-2009 06:03 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...

A VERY STORMY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE GULF STATES AT THE SAME TIME. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
LIFT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING SHOULD THREATEN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION...EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH READINGS RUNNING IN
THE MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE HIGH
DEWPOINT AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND LITTLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER AS THE PLUME OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID...A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE GONE...ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY FORCED FROM
TUESDAY ON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE UPPER 80S...AS CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
LESS AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FALLS BACK INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR WAS INDICATING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER
SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
INLAND...HOWEVER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING KGPT AND KMSY AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY WET WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TODAY AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES. THIS THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGPT AND KMSY...AND PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KBTR AND KMCB. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN TO KMSY AND KGPT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 11


&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND TRACK TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS
FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO WITH MODELS OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS
...BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING THE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
THEN INLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER SEAS. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 68 84 68 / 70 50 70 50
BTR 87 70 85 69 / 70 50 70 50
MSY 86 75 84 73 / 70 50 80 60
GPT 84 72 84 71 / 70 50 70 60



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-05-2009 08:15 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 051247
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST UP TO 500 MB...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE IS 2.15 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED DURING THE
NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO SOME AREAS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED EXCEPT OVER COASTAL WATERS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. AN INVERSION IS
PRESENT NEAR 1200 FT ALONG WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND WESTERLY ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009/

SHORT TERM...

A VERY STORMY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE GULF STATES AT THE SAME TIME. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
LIFT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING SHOULD THREATEN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION...EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH READINGS RUNNING IN
THE MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE HIGH
DEWPOINT AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND LITTLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER AS THE PLUME OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID...A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE GONE...ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY FORCED FROM
TUESDAY ON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE UPPER 80S...AS CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
LESS AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FALLS BACK INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY.

AVIATION...
RADAR WAS INDICATING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER
SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
INLAND...HOWEVER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING KGPT AND KMSY AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY WET WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TODAY AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES. THIS THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGPT AND KMSY...AND PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KBTR AND KMCB. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN TO KMSY AND KGPT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND TRACK TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS
FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO WITH MODELS OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS
..BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING THE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
THEN INLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER SEAS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 68 84 68 / 70 50 70 50
BTR 87 70 85 70 / 70 50 70 50
MSY 86 75 84 74 / 70 50 80 60
GPT 84 72 84 71 / 70 50 70 60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 09-06-2009 06:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING DEPICTING PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. WITH STRONG
MID AND UPPER LEVEL OMEGA VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD ZONE OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY INTO TOMORROW. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE DAY...AS THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THEN
SHOW THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GOING INTO TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR LABOR DAY ITSELF. OVERALL...HAVE WENT
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH LIKELY
POPS ELSEWHERE. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT LIKELY POPS TO
CONTINUE OVER COASTAL AREAS...AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT IN THIS REGION. THESE LIKELY POPS WILL PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL DROP POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED
SPOTS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE A BIT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD OF THE GULF SOUTH. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK BOUNDARY...ALMOST LIKE A BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH OR DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT BEING CALLED
THAT...WILL STALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE WILL SERVE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR LAND
ZONES...WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK CAPPING DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL
BE WEAK ENOUGH TO BE EASILY OVERCOME ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...AS WEAK
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERALL...EXPECT
LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
INDUCED...WITH FORMATION MOST LIKELY ALONG ANY PREEXISTING
BOUNDARIES SUCH SEABREEZE FRONTS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATION FROM
CANADA. THE TIMING IS FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW IS OFF AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RIDE ON THE BACK OF THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD AREA OF LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...AND AN
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS AFFECTING THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE KGPT TAF SITE AT TIMES. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WERE RUNNING
THE GAMUT FROM IFR AT KMCB TO VFR AT KMSY AND KBTR. THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z. KGPT AND KMSY MAY BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KBTR AND
KMCB WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE KMSY AND KGPT MAY
EXPERIENCE CONVECTION AT MOST ANY TIME TODAY. THE CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SOME EXTENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY AT KMSY AND KGPT. 11

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
3 FEET OR LESS DURING THE PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 68 88 68 / 70 50 40 20
BTR 88 70 90 69 / 70 50 40 20
MSY 87 74 88 74 / 80 60 60 30
GPT 86 72 87 72 / 80 60 60 30