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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-24-2009 07:59 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240843
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS
CHALLENGING RECORD LOWS FOR THIS DATE THIS MORNING. KBTR IS CURRENTLY
WITHIN 1 DEGREE OF TYING A RECORD LOW OF 64 SET IN 1957. THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA WILL BE A LITTLE TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE WITH 63 SET IN
1965 /THE YEAR OF HRCN BETSY IN SEPT/ AND CURRENTLY AROUND 74F.
THE DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS AGREE TO VARYING DEGREES ON HANDLING A PIECE OF CIRCULATION
PINCHING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROUGH AND RETROGRADING TO THE GULF
COAST DURING THE MID- TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE BEING LIFTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH INTEGRITY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY NOR DOES IT APPEAR TO GET OVER THE GULF
WATERS LONG ENOUGH OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO POSE A DOWNWARD
TRANSLATION CONCERN FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS TIME. IT
WOULD SEEM A TREND TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD ONSET BY THURSDAY BUT THE DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MARITIME
AIR MAY BE TAINTED WITH CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES IN THE MID-LAYERS
FOR A WHILE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...
CAVU VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
LONGER.

&&

.MARINE...
NO ISSUES TO MENTION OUTSIDE A LIMITED BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE SURF ZONE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING
OVER THE MUCH WARMER WATERS FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL INSTABILITY NEAR
DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 9 AM WITH JUST A LITTLE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED NEXT 5 DAYS.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 59 90 61 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 88 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 88 71 90 71 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-25-2009 04:25 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:000
FXUS64 KLIX 250914
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 5500-6000 FT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND HAMPERED OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION FOR A FEW
HOURS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS READILY AS THIS
TIME MONDAY MORNING. UNLESS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT
2 HOURS...MOST RECORDS WILL BE SAFE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY
INCREASED OVER THE REGION SINCE LAST EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
COLUMBUS MS AND MOVING SSW INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. CONVECTION INITIATING AROUND
GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL OMEGA FROM APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW.
THERE IS A GENERAL AND BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER
THE WEST GULF AND THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MAY CREATE A
DYNAMIC SITUATION FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF IF THE
UPPER LOW DROPS FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THIS
WAS A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THE FORMATION OF HURRICANE JUAN IN OCT
1985. THE GFS IS THE CLOSEST VERIFIABLE SOLUTION COMPARED TO
SATELLITE LOOP TRENDS BUT ALL CONVENTIONAL MODELS DO DROP THE CUT
OFF LOW CLOSE TO THE LA COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE IN TIME. MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER GULF IS RATHER RICH AND COULD BECOME EASILY INVOLVED
AND DRAWN NORTHWARD IF THE UPPER LOW TAPS INTO THIS SOURCE. MODELS
DO NOT INDICATE THAT TO BE THE CASE BUT ONE MAY HAVE TO BE DUBIOUS
OF ANY DISCONNECT.
BACK HOME...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES NAMELY IN INDICATING A SLOW WARMING
TREND AND A SLOW AND BELOW NORMAL RECOVERY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE AUGUST UNTIL AND UNLESS THE GULF TROPICS PROVIDE A CONTRARY
SITUATION TO ONE CURRENTLY INDICATED.

.LONG TERM...
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF TROPICAL ORIGIN CYCLONE
MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SLINGING ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON
COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE UPPER LONG WAVE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD SPELL ANOTHER BOUT OF
COOLER AND DRIER DAYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CAVOK VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NOT MUCH CONTRIBUTION TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH TO THE COAST EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ASSUMING THE MODELS
ARE CORRECT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF DYNAMICS OVER LAND. A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE WEST GULF WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY ORGANIZATION IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.
CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS LOW CHANCE OUTCOME AND
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SMALL AND LIMITED DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 63 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 90 65 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 89 72 90 73 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 89 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 10



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-25-2009 07:12 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 250914
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 5500-6000 FT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND HAMPERED OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION FOR A FEW
HOURS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS READILY AS THIS
TIME MONDAY MORNING. UNLESS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT
2 HOURS...MOST RECORDS WILL BE SAFE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY
INCREASED OVER THE REGION SINCE LAST EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
COLUMBUS MS AND MOVING SSW INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. CONVECTION INITIATING AROUND
GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL OMEGA FROM APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW.
THERE IS A GENERAL AND BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER
THE WEST GULF AND THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MAY CREATE A
DYNAMIC SITUATION FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF IF THE
UPPER LOW DROPS FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THIS
WAS A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THE FORMATION OF HURRICANE JUAN IN OCT
1985. THE GFS IS THE CLOSEST VERIFIABLE SOLUTION COMPARED TO
SATELLITE LOOP TRENDS BUT ALL CONVENTIONAL MODELS DO DROP THE CUT
OFF LOW CLOSE TO THE LA COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE IN TIME. MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER GULF IS RATHER RICH AND COULD BECOME EASILY INVOLVED
AND DRAWN NORTHWARD IF THE UPPER LOW TAPS INTO THIS SOURCE. MODELS
DO NOT INDICATE THAT TO BE THE CASE BUT ONE MAY HAVE TO BE DUBIOUS
OF ANY DISCONNECT. BACK HOME...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES NAMELY IN INDICATING A SLOW WARMING
TREND AND A SLOW AND BELOW NORMAL RECOVERY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE AUGUST UNTIL AND UNLESS THE GULF TROPICS PROVIDE A CONTRARY
SITUATION TO ONE CURRENTLY INDICATED.

.LONG TERM...
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF TROPICAL ORIGIN CYCLONE
MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SLINGING ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON
COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE UPPER LONG WAVE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD SPELL ANOTHER BOUT OF
COOLER AND DRIER DAYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CAVOK VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NOT MUCH CONTRIBUTION TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH TO THE COAST EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ASSUMING THE MODELS
ARE CORRECT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF DYNAMICS OVER LAND. A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE WEST GULF WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY ORGANIZATION IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.
CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS LOW CHANCE OUTCOME AND
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SMALL AND LIMITED DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 63 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 90 65 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 89 72 90 73 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 89 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-26-2009 05:18 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:000
FXUS64 KLIX 260941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND CONTINUING
TO DRIFT SOUTH. MODELS NOW SHOW THE SYSTEM MUDDLING AROUND THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH CAN DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN TIME BY
PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND TAP INTO LINGERING TROPICAL
MOISTURE POISED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUNDINGS STILLL
MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY DRY COLUMN THAT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RECOVER. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BUT BIGGEST PUSH
SHOULD STAY NORTH. WITH THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE GULF RELAXING
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BY
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 66 90 68 / 10 10 20 10
BTR 92 68 91 69 / 10 10 20 10
MSY 89 72 89 77 / 10 10 20 10
GPT 90 70 89 71 / 10 10 30 20



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-26-2009 06:31 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 260941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND CONTINUING
TO DRIFT SOUTH. MODELS NOW SHOW THE SYSTEM MUDDLING AROUND THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH CAN DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN TIME BY
PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND TAP INTO LINGERING TROPICAL
MOISTURE POISED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUNDINGS STILLL
MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY DRY COLUMN THAT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RECOVER. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BUT BIGGEST PUSH
SHOULD STAY NORTH. WITH THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE GULF RELAXING
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BY
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 66 90 68 / 10 10 20 10
BTR 92 68 91 69 / 10 10 20 10
MSY 89 72 89 77 / 10 10 20 10
GPT 90 70 89 71 / 10 10 30 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-27-2009 05:14 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 270851
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLE CONTRAST OF COLUMN MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE REGION.
ANOMALOUSLY DRIER AIR UNDER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BUT A RIBBON OF VERY
MOIST AIR AROUND PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOVING INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 06Z SPECIAL UPPER AIR RELEASES TO SUPPORT T.S.
DANNY ASSESSMENT REVEALED A 1.11 INCH P.W. ON KASD AND 2.10 INCH
P.W. AT KTLH. THIS RATHER SHARP GRADIENT IS AFFIRMED IN THE POES
AMSU AND GOES SOUNDER DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES. THE
INTERFACE OF THE SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING A RATHER
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IS AUGMENTING THE LIFT
PROVIDED FROM THE UPPER LOW. WILL BE INDICATING A SHARP
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH 30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO
BLEND WITH KMOB AND KJAN FORECAST...BUT TRIMMING TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE FARTHER WEST UNDER THE DRIER AIR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO
SHOW A STUGGLE FOR CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN AS THEY ADVANCE INTO THE
DRIER AIR. THE COLUMN SHOULD SLOWLY MOISTEN TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND MORE SO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EACH DAY AND MAY
EVEN BE HAMPERED A BIT BY RAINFALL IN LOWER PLAQUEMINES AND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY AND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF DRY CONDITIONS AND AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS LONGER. MODELS ALSO ARE SHOWING
A GENERAL LOWERING OF PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE LOWER GULF BUT
THIS ARE HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY EL NINO INDUCED SHEAR ALOFT TO
REALLY LIMIT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE GULF BELOW 25N
LATITUDE THUS FAR THIS SEASON. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS BUT MSY ARE ON THE LINE BTW VFR AND MVFR VIS. THESE
SITES SHOULD SEE VIS DOWN TO AROUND 5SM NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSRMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT BTW RW AND NONE MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWFA. THIS
INCLUDES GPT MORE DEFINITELY AND MSY RIGHT ON THE LINE. CALM WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SEWD AT LESS THAN 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND TSRMS. VFR AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH PRESENCE
OF UPPER LOW. COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED. EXPECTING MAIN THREATS TO BE FREQ
LIGHTNING AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SWRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS
WILL APPROACH SCY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE GULF. POPS WILL FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND OFF SHORE
FLOW SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 68 90 70 / 10 10 20 30
BTR 91 69 90 72 / 10 10 20 30
MSY 90 72 90 75 / 10 10 20 20
GPT 88 70 88 72 / 30 10 20 20

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-28-2009 04:11 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280426
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

.AVIATION...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. DEW POINTS SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KMCB
WHERE THEY ARE ABOUT 3 DEGREES HIGHER. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMSY. POTENTIAL
FOR IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT KMCB. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSES TOMORROW...AND ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ON THE ISOLATED SIDE. FOR NOW...WILL OMIT MENTION OF CONVECTION
FROM TERMINALS. 35
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009/

UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY MOIST THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL
POCKETS OF DRY AIR PRESENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS 1.48
INCHES. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING LOW RAINFALL TOTALS TO
SOME AREAS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHIFTING NORTH THEN WESTERLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO BE NUDGED OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP CARVE OUT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL RESULT IN THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER AIR PATTERN
WILL STEER TS DANNY NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND/OR ALONG THE EAST COAST.

AS FAR AS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS CONCERNED...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT...AND HENCE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...WILL BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS WAS THE CASE WITH LAST WEEK/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FOR THE SEASON WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. 11

AVIATION...
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE WITH GPT. MOST ACTIVE WX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. SOME UPPER DECKS AROUND BKN080 WILL TEMPO IN THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FAR AS
CLOUD COVER. SOME FOG WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT WHERE SKIES GO CLEAR.
HAVE BROUGHT MOST AREAS TO 2 TO 4SM BEFORE SUNRISE FRI FOR THIS
REASON. 17

MARINE...
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CAUSING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING WINDS BACK INTO THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AND MAY PROMPT
THE USE OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BY THAT TIME. 17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 89 69 88 / 10 30 30 50
BTR 69 90 71 89 / 10 30 30 50
MSY 72 90 74 89 / 10 20 20 50
GPT 71 88 73 89 / 10 30 20 50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-29-2009 05:27 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
505 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY IS THE FOURTH ANNIVERSARY OF HURRICANE KATRINA.
FORTUNATELY...THE TROPICS ARE QUIET... AND MANY PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY KEEP STRUGGLING TO KEEP SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER AS
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PLAQUE MANY AREAS AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL SET IN JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER RARE...FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS ANOTHER AUTUMN-LIKE COLD CORE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SAGS
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS HARD TO DISTINGUISH ON
SATELLITE...BUT THE MODELS AGREE THAT A 500 MB VORT MAX IS MOVING
EAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THIS FEATURE AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS TODAY...THE
SABINE RIVER AREA TONIGHT AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT GETTING A PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE RATHER STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...HAVE GONE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN TODAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH
GUSTY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL LOWER THE POP INLAND WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.LONG TERM...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A 500
MB TROUGH SETTING UP OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND BRING SLIGHT COOLER AND QUITE A BIT
LESS HUMID AIR...LEADING TO COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN BACK INTO THE PICTURE ABOUT
FRIDAY.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE IN THE AREA
FROM THE SW. THE POTENTIAL FOR TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED TODAY WILL
BE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT PLAN IS TO ADD AFTN TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT DRY SECTIONS
BEING DEPICTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SO SHOULDN/T BE MUCH
MORE THAN 20 KT GUSTS NEAR THE STORMS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT FROM THE SW TO W. SITES THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO BE IMPACTED BY BR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS FALL OFF WITH SUNSET. CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP TO
AROUND IFR WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT VFR TO DOMINATE BETWEEN THE
ACTIVITY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH JUST EAST OF CHANDELEUR
ISLANDS...NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHORELINE
NEAR TIMBALIER BAY TO SOUTHEAST OF GRAND ISLE. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL HAVE A GREATER POSSIBILITY TO BE
IMPACTED COMPARED TO THE OUTER WATERS. STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULDN/T
BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE BUT COULD SEE A GUST OR TWO REACH 25 KTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS IMPACTS AS WINDS WILL BE SW AT 5 TO
10 KTS TODAY. TSRMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD MONDAY. WINDS AN SEAS WILL PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...AT LEAST UNTIL
MID DAY. EXPECTING SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 15 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 69 86 67 / 50 40 70 20
BTR 89 71 87 68 / 50 40 60 20
MSY 90 74 88 73 / 50 40 60 30
GPT 89 73 87 71 / 30 30 60 30



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-30-2009 05:30 AM

From N.O. NWS:

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTED
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
DONALDSONVILLE TO BOGALUSA LINE. SFC OBS INDICATES THIS AREA TO HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TD/S. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER JET TO THE
WEST WITH SOUTHERN LA IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. JET WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME MORE OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR SHV THROUGH NORTHERN MS. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS MORE...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SE LA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE CONVECTION. UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME CONFLUENT LATE THIS AFTN TO EARLY EVENING.
THEREFORE...THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WANE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN HRS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVELS TODAY. IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY PRONOUNCED...BUT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW STRONG GUSTS
WITH BETTER ORGANIZED CELLS.

COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SH/TS COVERAGE WILL
BE MUCH LESS THAN THE DAYTIME AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
PARISHES/COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.LONG TERM...
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE OUT INTO THE GULF MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STILL HAVE
LINGERING TS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT FAIR WEATHER AFTER THAT POINT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN.

SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW THATS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PLUS TO
THIS SOLUTION IS THAT THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LOW THEN
STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
US EAST COAST. WHAT WILL HAPPEN FROM THIS POINT IS STILL IN QUESTION
BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS FEATURE TO BE
SOMETHING OF CONCERN AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.


MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IS
PROVIDING ENOUGH MIXING ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION TO KEEP MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY IFR CATEGORY CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA WHICH
WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EARLIER FORECASTS WERE EMPHASIZING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN TSRA...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME TEMPO LOWER CONDITIONS...STARTING THIS
MORNING AROUND KMSY...AND LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. A FEW
OF THE MORE ORGANIZED TSRA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45
KT RANGE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE INCREASED WINDS IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WITH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS REPORTED OVER MANY OF THE
MARINE STATIONS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY
THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME OF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA. LOOKING AT
FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AM ONLY EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO
PEAK IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE...SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD PEAK AT 3
FEET TO BRIEFLY NEAR 4 FEET. WINDS WILL SLACK OFF A BIT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN AS SOME OF
THE COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO BY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST.

22/TD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 66 86 61 / 80 20 0 10
BTR 87 69 89 66 / 50 10 10 10
MSY 87 74 89 73 / 70 20 10 10
GPT 85 71 87 68 / 80 30 10 10



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-30-2009 08:04 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 301238
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
738 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWS THAT WE ARE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH PWS RUNNING ABOVE
TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES. THE SOUNDING SHOWS VERY LITTLE DRY AIR
AT THIS TIME AS THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT. WHILE RAIN
IS CERTAINLY ON TAP FOR TODAY...THE SOUNDING SHOWS THAT WE SHOULD
STEER CLEAR OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE WET BULB HEIGHT IS ABOVE
13K FEET WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY HAIL POSSIBILITIES. THERE IS NO
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS THE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING ARE OUT OF
THE WEST. THERE IS SOME SPEED SHEAR PRESENT WHICH COULD HELP AID
IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...BUT IT SHOULD
NOT REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGHOUT
THE SOUNDING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE SURFACE THEREFORE THE
STORM MOTION TODAY IS AROUND 15 KTS. THAT WILL ALLOW WHATEVER DOES
DEVELOP TO CONTINUE TO MOVE.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009/

SHORT TERM...
THE LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTED
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
DONALDSONVILLE TO BOGALUSA LINE. SFC OBS INDICATES THIS AREA TO HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TD/S. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER JET TO THE
WEST WITH SOUTHERN LA IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. JET WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME MORE OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR SHV THROUGH NORTHERN MS. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS MORE...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SE LA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE CONVECTION. UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME CONFLUENT LATE THIS AFTN TO EARLY EVENING.
THEREFORE...THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WANE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN HRS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVELS TODAY. IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY PRONOUNCED...BUT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW STRONG GUSTS
WITH BETTER ORGANIZED CELLS.

COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SH/TS COVERAGE WILL
BE MUCH LESS THAN THE DAYTIME AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
PARISHES/COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE OUT INTO THE GULF MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STILL HAVE
LINGERING TS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT FAIR WEATHER AFTER THAT POINT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN.

SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW THATS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PLUS TO
THIS SOLUTION IS THAT THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LOW THEN
STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
US EAST COAST. WHAT WILL HAPPEN FROM THIS POINT IS STILL IN QUESTION
BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS FEATURE TO BE
SOMETHING OF CONCERN AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IS
PROVIDING ENOUGH MIXING ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION TO KEEP MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY IFR CATEGORY CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA WHICH
WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EARLIER FORECASTS WERE EMPHASIZING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN TSRA...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME TEMPO LOWER CONDITIONS...STARTING THIS
MORNING AROUND KMSY...AND LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. A FEW
OF THE MORE ORGANIZED TSRA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45
KT RANGE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

22/TD

MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE INCREASED WINDS IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WITH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS REPORTED OVER MANY OF THE
MARINE STATIONS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY
THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME OF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA. LOOKING AT
FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AM ONLY EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO
PEAK IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE...SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD PEAK AT 3
FEET TO BRIEFLY NEAR 4 FEET. WINDS WILL SLACK OFF A BIT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN AS SOME OF
THE COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO BY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST.

22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 66 86 61 / 80 20 0 10
BTR 87 69 89 66 / 50 10 10 10
MSY 87 74 89 73 / 70 20 10 10
GPT 85 71 87 68 / 80 30 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$