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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-29-2006 05:21 AM

Fxus64 Klix 290840
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
340 Am Cdt Mon May 29 2006

.discussion...
The Main Forecast Concern Continues To Center Around Precipitation
Chances Through The Forecast Period. A Weak Mid/upper Low/trough
Over East Texas Will Remain In The Vicinity Of The Lower
Mississippi Valley Through Tuesday. The Best Moisture Today Will
Continue To Reside Just West Of The Forecast Area...but A Fairly
Active Convective Day Is Still Expected...especially Across The
Western Half Of The Pcwa...with Sufficient Moisture And Instability
To Fire Convection Along With Difluent Flow In The Upper Levels.
Convection Will Remain On Tap For Tuesday Although Some Drier Air
Does Begin To Work Into The Forecast Area. Wednesday And Possibly
Thursday Look To Be Less Active As The Drier Air Coming Around The
Eastern Conus Upper Ridge Becomes More Entrenched Across The
Forecast Area. Deeper Moisture Returns For The End Of The Week As
The Advertised Pattern Shift Is Forecast To Take Place With A
Digging Upper Trough Over The Eastern U.s. While An Upper Ridge
Builds Over The Rockies. A Cold Front Associated With The
Developing Eastern Trough Is Forecast To Push South Into The
Local Are Late Friday And Sink Slowly South Toward The Southeast
Louisiana Coast Saturday Before Becoming Diffuse. At This Time It
Appears That There Will Be A Good Chance For Rain Friday Into
Saturday With The Front In The Vicinity And As Short Wave Trough
Moves Toward The Central Gulf Coast Region.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-30-2006 06:12 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
351 Am Cdt Tue May 30 2006

.discussion...
Precipitation Chances Are Again The Main Weather Concern For This
Package. A Weak And Nearly Stationary Mid Level Low/trough
Remained Over Northeast Texas Early This Morning While An Upper
Ridge Remained Anchored Over Much Of The Eastern Third Of The
Country. Convection Continues To Develop Off The Texas Coast Where
Good Instability...a Tropical Airmass...and Upper Level Divergence
Prevails. It Appears That Convection Will Likely Be Less Active
Today Across The Forecast Area As The Best Moisture Remains West
Of The Area Over Western Louisiana And East Texas And Drier Air That
Began To Infiltrate The Local Forecast Area Late Yesterday Continues
To Spread Into The Central Gulf Coast Region From The East Around
The Upper Ridge As Was Indicated On The Goes Sounder Precipitable
Water Imagery. Plan To Continue With The Best Chance For
Convection Across The Western Zones Today With The Lowest Pops
Across The Eastern Zones. Models...especially The Gfs...forecast
Significantly Drier Air In The Mid And Lower Levels Working Into
The Area Wednesday And As A Result Rain Chances Will Be Minimal And
Fairly Hot Conditions Will Prevail. The Nam Increases Moisture
Thursday While The Gfs Hangs On To The Dry Air For Another Day.
Both Models Do Show A Weak Surface Low/trough Moving West Across
The Central Gulf Coast States Wednesday Night Into Thursday. At
This Time Plan To Continue With Just 30 Percent Pops On Thursday.
Deeper Moisture And Better Rain Chances Return For The End Of The
Week As An Upper Trough Digs Across The Eastern Conus And Pushes
An Associated Cold Front South Into The Forecast Area Friday Night
And Saturday. This Front Will Likely Be Slow To Clear The Coast
And As A Result Will Have Convection Lingering Across The Coastal
Waters Into Saturday Night. Mainly Dry Weather Will Be On Tap For
The End Of The Weekend Into Early Next Week With A Large Upper
Ridge Forecast To Dominate Much Of The Central Conus.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-30-2006 05:41 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
245 Pm Cdt Tue May 30 2006

.discussion...

Early This Afternoon There Was A Surface High Pressure Center Over
The Mid-atlantic States With A 500hpa Ridge In The Same Area. An
Area Of Dry Air Was Pushing Into The Eastern Portions Of The
Pcwa...limiting The Convection In That Area. An Upper-level
Shortwave Was Pushing North From East Texas Toward Oklahoma And
Arkansas. As The Shortwave Moves North A Surface Low Over The
Western Great Lakes Will Pull To The East And Drag A Cold Front
South Into Louisiana And Mississippi By Thursday Night/friday
Morning. The Drier Air Filtering Into The Area Today Will Limit
Convection Tomorrow And Thursday...with Moisture Increasing As The
Front Approaches For Thursday Night/friday. The Front Is Expected
To Slowly Push Through The Area This Weekend...bringing Drier
Conditions For The Beginning Of Next Week.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-31-2006 06:33 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 310824
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
324 Am Cdt Wed May 31 2006

.discussion...
Drier Air Moving Around The Eastern Conus Upper Ridge That Began
To Infiltrate The Mid And Lower Levels Of The Atmosphere Across
The Forecast Area Tuesday Night Continues To Become More
Entrenched Across The Area. Precipitation Yesterday Was Basically
Confined To The Western Half Of The Forecast Area And With The Drier
Air Making Its Way Farther West Convection Should Be Limited To
The Western Most Zones Of Pcwa. Plan To Indicate Only 20 Percent
Pops Across The Zones West Of Interstate 55 Today With A Dry
Forecast For The Remainder Of The Forecast Area. Some Moisture May
Begin To Return To The Area By Late Thursday As The Upper Air
Pattern Over The Conus Begins To Transition To An Eastern Trough
And Western Ridge. The Digging Eastern Upper Trough Will Push A
Cold Front Into The Forecast Area By Late Friday And Friday Night
Which Will Slowly Sink South Into The Coastal Waters Saturday And
Saturday Night. Plan To Continue With Scattered Convection For
The Period Friday Into Saturday With Convection Possibly Lingering
Across The Coastal Waters Saturday Night. Drier Air Will Once
Again Move Into The Area In The Wake Of The Front And Provide For
More Comfortable Conditions For The Last Half Of The Weekend And
The Early Part Of The Next Work Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 92 67 91 68 / 10 10 20 20
Btr 93 68 91 69 / 20 10 20 20
Msy 93 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 20
Gpt 93 69 90 70 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-31-2006 10:29 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
240 Pm Cdt Wed May 31 2006

.discussion...

This Afternoon There Was An Upper-level Ridge Over The
Appalachians...low Along The Texas Coast...and Trough Over The
Dakotas. Near The Surface There Was High Pressure Over The
Southeastern States With Onshore Flow In The Low Mississippi
Valley. Dry Air Wrapping Around The Ridge Of High Pressure
Continued To Push Into Our Area From The East And Limit Convective
Development. This Mornings Sounding Had A Precip Water Value Of
1.14. Only A Little Better Chance For Development Is Expected
Tomorrow.

As The Upper Trough Digs Into The Great Lakes/ohio Valley...the
Associated Cold Front Will Push South To The Gulf Coast On
Friday. As The System Digs Further On Saturday...the Front Will
Push Through The Coastal Waters. The Nam Has Increased The Chance
For Rain On Friday Whereas The Gfs Keeps It In The 20-30 Percent
Range For The Area. Most Of The Upper-level Support And Moisture
Should Remain To The East...therefore We Will Keep Chances For
Precip In The 30-40 Percent Range Along/ahead Of The Cold Front. A
Relatively Dry Airmass Should Push Into The Area Behind The Front
And Lead To Fair Weather For The Early Part Of Next Week.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-01-2006 06:03 AM

Today: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 92. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-02-2006 07:03 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
356 Am Cdt Fri Jun 2 2006

.discussion...
Latest Radar Showed Scattered Thunderstorms Over Mobile Coast Waters
And Isolated Showers Over South Mississippi Drifting Southeast.
Latest Upper Level Trough Axis Was Located From The Great Lakes To
Southeast Texas And An Anticyclonic Circulation Just South Of The
Four Corners Region With A Ridge Axis North To Montana. Latest
Surface Showed A 1013mb Low Over West Kentucky With A Cold Front
Extending Southwest To The Arklatex Region.

Short Range Models Are In Agreement The Trough Axis Moving East
Across The Mississippi Valley And Forecast Area Around 06z
Sat...tonight. Trough Is Expected To Remain Positively Tilted As
It Pushes East Across The Area. Gfs Shows A Slight Decrease And
Pooling Of Moisture Along The Upper Trough And Associated Surface
Frontal Passage. However...eta/nam Moisture Fields Are Wetter. As
A Result...eta/nam Pops Are Closer To Likely And Gfs Pops Are In
The Chance Ranges. We Will Continue With 40 Percent For The Area
Today And Will Use Scattered In Zfp. Ergo...no Real Changes From Prev
Package. Will Continue To Expect The Frontal Passage Late Tonight
Through Early Saturday Morning. Some Cooling Will Occur But Less
Humidity Will Be Noticed. Associated High Will Settle In Over The
Weekend And Slowly Slide East. Low Level Moisture Will Slowly
Creep Back Over The Area Next Week. Another Disturbance On The
Backside Of The Trough Will Deepen The Overall Trough Over
Northeast To Ohio Valley. As A Result...north To Northwest Flow
Aloft Will Persist Tuesday. This Will Cut Rain Chances To Almost Nil
From Saturday Through Next Thursday.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-03-2006 08:39 AM

Rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
353 Am Cdt Sat Jun 3 2006

.discussion...
Yesterday...storm Total Precip Revealed Nil Coverage And Some
Areas Across East Central Louisiana And Extreme South Mississippi
And Isolated Coverage Elsewhere. Water Vapor Imagery Revealed
Darkening And Descent Air With The Demarcation Line From West
Tennessee To Southeast Louisiana To Northwest Gulf. The Upper
Level Trough Axis Was Located From The Great Lakes To North
Central Gulf. Surface Analysis A Low Over The Mid Atlantic States
With The Boundary Southwest North Georgia To Southeast Mississippi
To Southwest Louisiana.

Our Last Cold Frontal Passage Before The Summer Solstice Will Bring
In Dry Air And Cooler Nights Through Tuesday. A Stable Synoptic
Pattern Has Been Established With A Ridge Over The Rockies And
Trough Over The East Conus. This Place The Forecast Area Under A
North To Northwest Flow Through Wednesday. By The Latter Part Of
Next Week...ridge Out West Expand East And Very Warm Conditions
Can Be Expected. Back To The Sneaky This Northwest Flow At
Times...gfs And Nam Indicated Embedded Disturbances In Flow Coming
Down Monday. Pw Values Around 1.2 Inches So Will Keep Dry.
However...pattern And Track Of Disturbances Do Not Change For
Tuesday But Pw Values Increase Up To 1.7 Inches For Tuesday.
Therefore...will Carry Isolated Storms For Tuesday Afternoon And
Tuesday Evening. Thereafter...ridge Becomes Expansive The Area
Surface Heating Will Have To Overcome Warm Temps Aloft To Fire Up
Convection. Will Go With Slight Pops For Next Thu Thru Sat.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-04-2006 07:52 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 040906
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
406 Am Cdt Sun Jun 4 2006

.discussion...water Vapor Imagery Revealed Darkening And Descent
Air With The Demarcation Line From The Carolinas Coast To Central
Florida To Central Gulf To Texas. In Addition...upper Level Trough
Was Located Over The East...ridge Over The Rockies And Northwest
Flow The Plains And Mississippi Valley. The Old Frontal Boundary
Extended From North Florida To Northeast Gulf To Southeast
Louisiana Coastal Waters. A Few Showers Were Near Front West
Tennessee To Southeast Louisiana To Northwest Gulf. Will Insert
Isolated Showers West Of The River This Morning.

Otherwise..dry Trend Is Expected To Continue Thru Tuesday. A
Disturbance Embedded In The Northwest Flow Will Track Across The
Area Tonight But Mid Layer Will Remain Dry And We Will Call For
Dry Conditions Tonight. This Morning Temps Continue To Flirt With
Upper 50s On Station...asd At 60f At 345 Am. Most Of Forecast Area
Will Experience Two More Cooler Than Norm Temps Mornings Through
Tuesday. Meanwhile Another Strong Vort Max Embedded In The
Northwest Flow Will Track Across The Forecast Area Late Tuesday
Into Wednesday. Pw Values Increases Up To 1.8 To 1.9 Inches By
Early Wednesday Morning...according To Gfs. Ergo...will Up Pops
To Chance For Wednesday. Flow Aloft Becomes North As The Trough
Axis Develops And Deepens Over The Forecast Area Wednesday And
Slowly Shift South Through Friday. Will Maintain Rain Chances
Through Friday. Dry Air Will Finally Filter In Next Sat And Sun
With Trough Moving South.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-05-2006 05:27 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 050937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE BASIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE/HIGH PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. LATEST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...
SHOWS SOMEWHAT WARM AIR AND A SLIGHT CAP ALOFT WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 90 ON
THURSDAY.

IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...ALTHOUGH IN A
RELATIVELY WEAK STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEND
TO SUPPRESS ANY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO HAVE BACKED
OFF ON RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT.