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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-13-2009 05:54 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...
CAN`T FIND IT ON SFC CHARTS...BUT THERE IS A BLUE LINE WITH
TRIANGLES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW OVER MUCH
OF SE LA AND SOUTHERN MISS TODAY SO POP NUMBERS WILL BE LOW TODAY.
NEAR THE COAST THERE REMAINS SOME POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH
IS WHERE SOME TS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET STARTED. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP A VERY WEAK SFC LOW
TO THE SE OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN TROUGH FRI AND BEGIN TO MOVE WEST HELPING TO BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA BY SAT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE
THAT HELPS IMPROVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT...A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...WILL ENTER FROM STAGE RIGHT...OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.

THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TWO WAVES AT PRESENT ALONG 65W AND 69W.
THE 69W WAVE IS MOVING MUCH FASTER AND WILL OVERTAKE THE
FIRST...CREATING ONE LARGE FAST MOVING WAVE TO ENTER THE GULF SAT
AND FINALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUN THROUGH MON.
THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE SHOULD REMAIN
DISORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TOO
CLOSE TO TWO UPPER LOWS. THE FIRST BEING THE TUTT LOW MOVING WEST
OVER EASTERN CUBA. THIS ONE WILL KEEP MOVING WSW WITH THE MID
SECTION OF THE WAVE. THE SECOND WILL BE THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS ONE WILL ALSO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM BEGINS WHEN THIS FEATURE
ON THE NORTH END OF THE WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE OLD
TROUGH BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WE MAY START TO NOTICE
THIS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECETED TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE BROUGHT POP
NUMBERS UPWARD INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SUN AND MON AND MOVE THEM
FROM EAST TO WEST.

.LONG TERM...
TUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCAST...WE SHOULD CONTINUE A DEEP
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHANCE
RANGE WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL SWING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BEEN REPLACED BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR. AS A RESULT...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN DRAPED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN
ANY OF THE TAFS. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH KMCB MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE. 11
&&

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND AT
TIMES RATHER VARIABLE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED NEAR
THE COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. 11

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 70 93 72 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 94 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 91 76 92 77 / 20 20 20 20
GPT 92 72 91 74 / 20 20 20 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-14-2009 04:55 AM

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
439 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING PACKAGE. INTERESTING FEATURES ON
THE MAP THIS MORNING THOUGH. TWO TYPES OF DYNAMIC FEATURES
OCCURRING...THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SEEN BY DEW PT DIFF. TS DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY DUE TO DEEP HORIZONTAL EASTERLY FLOW FORCING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. COULD CALL THIS ISENTROPIC LIFTING.
GOOD THING WE ARE STRONGLY CAPPED AT 15K FT. ONCE TS HIT THIS
LEVEL...MOMENTUM IS THE ONLY THING DRIVING THE TS CORE ALLOWING
TOPS TO MAXIMIZE AROUND 40K FT OR ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE
POTENTIALLY GONE SEVERE. THE NEXT AREA OF INTEREST IS
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. THIS IS SEEN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS
BUOYANCY AND DEEP MOISTURE ARE DRIVING SH/TS DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDING
AT 00Z SHOWED MOISTURE UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB. THIS IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET A 20 TO 30% POP. DO BELIEVE WE ARE EXPERIENCING A RANGE OF
DIFFERENT SOUNDING PROFILES FROM NW TO SE.

ALALYZING THE GLOBAL MODELS THIS MORNING...THE GFS IS STILL TOO
STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS BY ABOUT 10KT.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL STRONGER BY 5KT ACCORDING
TO ACTUAL EAST COAST SOUNDING PROFILES.

THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HEAD WEST WITH THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CLOSE ON ITS HEELS. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT US IS CAUSING ISSUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARRIBEAN...HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE GULF...GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WANT TO
DEVELOP AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF TWO UPPER
LOWS. THE FIRST IS THE TUTT LOW MOVING WEST OVER CUBA. THIS ONE
WILL SINK BENEATH THE SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AS THESE TWO BECOME MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED...A VERY LARGE AND LONG
AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BREAK OUT FROM THE WESTERN
CARRIBEAN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
BURSTS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESS WESTWARD BRINGING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD ALSO CAUSE A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE BURST OFF OUR
SHORELINE AS WELL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
FETCH AND WIND STRENGTH ALONG THE MENTIONED FETCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF TIDES WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE GULF
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST...A QUICK BUT SHORT LASTING SURGE
OF DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND GIVE
US A DRY WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MOST ATTENTION WILL BE
ON THE TROPICS ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT WELL STRUCTURED TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. DRAWING ANY CONCULSIONS AT THIS
TIME FROM US OR ANY OTHER MET OUTLET WOULD SIMPLY BE CONJECTURE.
SO ATTM...WILL ONLY SAY THAT THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT 28W 13N HAS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...AS A DRY
AND FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SEABREEZE/LAKEBREEZE BOUNDARIES. 32

&&

MARINE...
CALM SEAS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DOWNGRADE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL HAVE A FAIRLY LONG FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELL TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON TOP OF THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES. AS A RESULT...SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES ONSHORE. 32

Edit


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-14-2009 07:09 AM

XUS64 KLIX 141117 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
617 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.UPDATE...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR LINGERING
OUTFLOW AND SEABREEZE/LAKEBREEZE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR ANY
OF THE TERMINALS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS. IF ANY
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS...THE FORECAST CAN BE
QUICKLY UPDATED. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE THROUGH 12Z AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009/

SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING PACKAGE. INTERESTING FEATURES ON
THE MAP THIS MORNING THOUGH. TWO TYPES OF DYNAMIC FEATURES
OCCURRING...THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SEEN BY DEW PT DIFF. TS DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY DUE TO DEEP HORIZONTAL EASTERLY FLOW FORCING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. COULD CALL THIS ISENTROPIC LIFTING.
GOOD THING WE ARE STRONGLY CAPPED AT 15K FT. ONCE TS HIT THIS
LEVEL...MOMENTUM IS THE ONLY THING DRIVING THE TS CORE ALLOWING
TOPS TO MAXIMIZE AROUND 40K FT OR ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE
POTENTIALLY GONE SEVERE. THE NEXT AREA OF INTEREST IS
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. THIS IS SEEN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS
BUOYANCY AND DEEP MOISTURE ARE DRIVING SH/TS DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDING
AT 00Z SHOWED MOISTURE UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB. THIS IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET A 20 TO 30% POP. DO BELIEVE WE ARE EXPERIENCING A RANGE OF
DIFFERENT SOUNDING PROFILES FROM NW TO SE.

ALALYZING THE GLOBAL MODELS THIS MORNING...THE GFS IS STILL TOO
STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS BY ABOUT 10KT.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL STRONGER BY 5KT ACCORDING
TO ACTUAL EAST COAST SOUNDING PROFILES.

THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HEAD WEST WITH THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CLOSE ON ITS HEELS. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT US IS CAUSING ISSUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARRIBEAN...HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE GULF...GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WANT TO
DEVELOP AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF TWO UPPER
LOWS. THE FIRST IS THE TUTT LOW MOVING WEST OVER CUBA. THIS ONE
WILL SINK BENEATH THE SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AS THESE TWO BECOME MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED...A VERY LARGE AND LONG
AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BREAK OUT FROM THE WESTERN
CARRIBEAN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
BURSTS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESS WESTWARD BRINGING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD ALSO CAUSE A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE BURST OFF OUR
SHORELINE AS WELL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
FETCH AND WIND STRENGTH ALONG THE MENTIONED FETCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF TIDES WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE GULF
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST...A QUICK BUT SHORT LASTING SURGE
OF DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND GIVE
US A DRY WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MOST ATTENTION WILL BE
ON THE TROPICS ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT WELL STRUCTURED TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. DRAWING ANY CONCULSIONS AT THIS
TIME FROM US OR ANY OTHER MET OUTLET WOULD SIMPLY BE CONJECTURE.
SO ATTM...WILL ONLY SAY THAT THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT 28W 13N HAS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...AS A DRY
AND FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SEABREEZE/LAKEBREEZE BOUNDARIES. 32

MARINE...
CALM SEAS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DOWNGRADE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL HAVE A FAIRLY LONG FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELL TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON TOP OF THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES. AS A RESULT...SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES ONSHORE. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 20
BTR 94 72 93 74 / 10 10 30 20
MSY 92 76 90 76 / 20 20 40 30
GPT 92 74 89 76 / 20 20 40 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-14-2009 07:35 PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook NO NWS:

Quote:HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-151615-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
700 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN COASTAL AREAS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES...GENERALLY FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME.



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-15-2009 06:19 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 150847
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...

AN VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LOOKING TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL PULL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES SUNDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY PROCEED INLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN OBSERVED THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST...NEAR A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. HEADING
INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PULL
CLOSER TO THE AREA. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL...ALONG WITH A BROAD
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADING INTO TOMORROW. IN FACT...IT
APPEARS THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TO SUPPORT LIKELY COVERAGE. FARTHER
INLAND...THE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO RETURN...AND HAVE
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL.

HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PROLIFIC PERIOD OF RAINFALL LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE FED BY DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IN PLACE...HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE. THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO PULL TO THE WEST AND FARTHER
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG AND DEEP
OMEGA VALUES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY DEVELOP...AND WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY DEVELOP DUE TO AN
EXPECTED HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDE AND SOME SWELLS EMANATING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

.LONG TERM...

A REVERSION TO MORE TYPICAL MID-AUGUST CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 90S...AND OVERALL POPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
BE DRIVEN BY A LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
REGION...AND A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...OUTSIDE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 23Z TODAY. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT MIST MAY MVFR CONDITION AT MCB AND BTR FROM 07 TO
13Z SUNDAY. 18

&&

MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AND
REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE...A FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF WILL FOR A DECENT 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELL TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON TOP OF THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES. AS A RESULT...SEAS UP TO 6
FEET BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES ONSHORE. 18


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-16-2009 04:16 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160504
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1204 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

.AVIATION...
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN. ISOLATED
SHRA MAY BRIEFLY MOVE NEAR KGPT THROUGH 12Z...OTHERWISE...KMCB MAY
EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS IN BR BEFORE 13Z.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME TEMPO MVFR CATEGORY
CIGS AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR...MOST LIKELY STARTING NEAR
KMSY-KGPT MID TO LATE MORNING AND DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR KBTR-KMCB.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009/

UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY MOIST WITH A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN 500 AND 600 MILLIBARS FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOUNDING WITH A PW OF 1.80 INCHES. WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR STILL REMAINING ABOVE 500 MILLIBARS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINED FAIRLY ISOLATED TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AT A
RELATIVELY SLOW PACE AS THE STORM MOTION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 90 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.

DISCUSSION...
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THINKING HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE WILL HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. NO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...PONDING OF
WATER ON SOME LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO TOP OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IN AN AREA OF CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...THERE ARE NOW TWO TROPICAL STORMS IN THE
CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC...TROPICAL STORM ANA...AND NEWLY NAMED
TROPICAL STORM BILL. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED SUIT. TROPICAL STORM
ANA IS NOW FORECAST TO BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM LOCATED NEAR
KEY WEST BY DAY 5...THURSDAY THE 20TH. FOR MORE INFORMATION
CONCERNING TROPICAL STORMS ANA AND BILL...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SHORT TERM RISK TO
KMSY..KBTR...KGPT AND KMCB IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LIGHT
FOG WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 4 MILES IS POSSIBLE AT KMCB AND KBTR FOR
A FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES LATE TONIGHT. THEY SHOULD
MOVE ON SHORE BY DAYBREAK PROVIDING A RISK TO KSMY AND KGPT.

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THOUGH THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-17-2009 05:12 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170906
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A 1014MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL CLAUDETTE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 1023MB HIGH OVER
THE CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINED EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. MEANWHILE...PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
TYPICALLY DESCENT AIR IS NOTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF TROPICAL
SYSTEMS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SURGE OF MID LAYER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OVER LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 2 INCHES WERE NOTED AT JACKSON
AND SHREVEPORT AND CIRCULATION AROUND TS CLAUDETTE WILL INITIALLY
TRY TO ADVECT IN SOME RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BUT AS CLAUDETTE CONTINUES NORTH...THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS
MAIN SOUTH LATE TODAY. NO REAL UNIFORMITY TO FREE CONVECTION
TODAY AS NO SURFACE FOCUS WILL BE IN PLACE OR WARM LAYERS ALOFT.
DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEP SOUTH
FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORM FOR RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CIRCULATION OF CLAUDETTE IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2
INCHES...AMPLE SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO
2000 J/KG AND NO INHIBITORS SHOULD EQUATE TO ANOTHER DAY WITH
ABOVE RAIN CHANCES. 18

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE CAROLINA TO THE NORTHWEST GULF AND THIS DISPLACING THE
DEEP MOISTURE NORTH. RAIN CHANCE SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE MID LATS...WHILE THE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS LIFT NORTHEAST...ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPENED OVER NORTH PLAINS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE EAST DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE AN AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AXIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH LAND AND MARINE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPS SHOULD LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ZONES EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.
18

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KGPT ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMCB...WHERE THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND NOON. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH BELOW 30 PERCENT BY SUNSET...AND DO NOT PLAN TO CARRY
MENTION AFTER THAT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MADE LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND
WILL NOT POSE A THREAT TO OUR MARINE AREAS. AXIS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
EXTENDED FROM CLAUDETTE TO ABOUT 25N 93W...WITH A CONTINUED WEST TO
NORTHWEST MOVEMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EAST
OF THE RIVER AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE RIVER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. WAVES CURRENTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE EAST OF THE
RIVER SHOULD SLOWLY ABATE DURING THE DAY AS CLAUDETTE MOVES FURTHER
INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ONCE THE
WEATHER SUBSIDES LATER TODAY. 35

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-18-2009 05:04 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LITTLE IF ANY REMNANTS OF
CLAUDETTE OR CLOSED LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED ON
THE CAROLINAS COAST WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WAS NOTED OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA WITH GREATER THAN 70F DEWPOINT READINGS
FROM THE COAST TO THE MID SOUTH. PW VALUES AROUND 2.3 AT LIX AND
LCH AT 00Z TUE. UPPER LEVEL CHARTS SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANTICYCLONIC OVER WEST TEXAS AND
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE COL WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL LIFT EAST AND
ALLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TO EXPAND WEST. 5H TEMP SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND -5C TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE
AREA AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA...PW VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES...SURFACE HEATING WILL EQUATE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT ONE
TIME...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE CONVECTION DURING A 12 HOUR PERIOD
TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS AT 7H WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...GFS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWS A DEEPER STRONGER FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY.
ERGO...ISOLATED MAX AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
AROUND 1 TO 2 FOR THURSDAY. WITH NO REAL SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY FORM AROUND SEA AND LAKE
BREEZE FRONT...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE THE LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT. TEMPS MAY RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THURSDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST AND PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WE DID NOTICE A SLIGHT COOLING 5H TO -7C ON
FRIDAY PRODUCING STEEPER LAPSE RATES. GFS MODEL JET ANALYSIS
PLACES THE JET MAX AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTING EAST. ERGO...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONG STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE PUSH OF
THE TROUGH TOWARD THE ATLANTIC MAY SLOW THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH INTO THE GULF WILL LINGER RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WELL BELOW NORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE KMCB AREA...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AIRMASS STILL VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO FIRE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING ANY SPECIFIC
TERMINAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE NEAR KMCB AROUND
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SEAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE SUBSIDED INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 35

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 73 90 73 / 70 30 70 20
BTR 90 73 91 74 / 70 30 70 20
MSY 89 77 89 77 / 70 30 70 20
GPT 89 76 88 75 / 70 40 50 30


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-18-2009 07:00 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180847
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LITTLE IF ANY REMNANTS OF
CLAUDETTE OR CLOSED LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED ON
THE CAROLINAS COAST WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WAS NOTED OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA WITH GREATER THAN 70F DEWPOINT READINGS
FROM THE COAST TO THE MID SOUTH. PW VALUES AROUND 2.3 AT LIX AND
LCH AT 00Z TUE. UPPER LEVEL CHARTS SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANTICYCLONIC OVER WEST TEXAS AND
EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE COL WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL LIFT EAST AND
ALLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TO EXPAND WEST. 5H TEMP SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND -5C TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE
AREA AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA...PW VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES...SURFACE HEATING WILL EQUATE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT ONE
TIME...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE CONVECTION DURING A 12 HOUR PERIOD
TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS AT 7H WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...GFS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWS A DEEPER STRONGER FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY.
ERGO...ISOLATED MAX AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
AROUND 1 TO 2 FOR THURSDAY. WITH NO REAL SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY FORM AROUND SEA AND LAKE
BREEZE FRONT...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE THE LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT. TEMPS MAY RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THURSDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST AND PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WE DID NOTICE A SLIGHT COOLING 5H TO -7C ON
FRIDAY PRODUCING STEEPER LAPSE RATES. GFS MODEL JET ANALYSIS
PLACES THE JET MAX AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTING EAST. ERGO...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONG STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE PUSH OF
THE TROUGH TOWARD THE ATLANTIC MAY SLOW THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH INTO THE GULF WILL LINGER RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTH ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WELL BELOW NORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE KMCB AREA...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AIRMASS STILL VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO FIRE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING ANY SPECIFIC
TERMINAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE NEAR KMCB AROUND
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SEAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE SUBSIDED INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-19-2009 05:08 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA...TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM
MONTANA TO EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHWEST GULF. SURFACE PATTERN CONTINUE TO
SHOW A 1020MB HIGH OVER CAROLINAS WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WEST TO TEXAS. PW PLOTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHV AND JAN ARE
ABOVE 2.1 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO REAL INHIBITORS/WARM LAYERS ALOFT AND
SURFACE HEATING TO YIELD CAPE VALUES AROUND 2 TO 3KJ/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH
EASE EACH DAY. WINDS AT 7H WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
TODAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS THURSDAY. ALL POINTS CAME IN
WITH CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BUT STORM TOTAL PRECIP REVEALED HIGH
SCATTERED COVERAGE YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY...A TAD UNDER CAT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST GULF...ALLOWING THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE TO POOL FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. ERGO...NORTH AND NORTHWEST ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE HIGHER
COVERAGE AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE PRECIP ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE 7 DAY TOTALS GREATEST SOUTH OF THE LAKE AROUND 3 INCHES AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI INLAND 3 TO 4 INCHES. NORTHWEST ZONES MAY
EXPERIENCE GENERAL TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT THIS AREA HAS ONLY
RECEIVED GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LAST 7 DAYS. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF NORMS. 18

.LONG TERM...
LOOKING TO THE NORTH...A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN THE MAIN
TROUGH OVER PLAINS THURSDAY AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOISTURE. FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WILL CARRY HIGHER
THAN NORM NIGHT TIME RAIN CHANCES. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS AND A SLOW-MOVING FRONT MAY YIELD A GOOD COVERAGE OF 1
INCH...POSSIBLE 2. THIS COULD CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH ON TOP OF THE
SPOTTY 1...2 OR 3 INCHES THAT HAVE OCCURRED OR WILL OCCUR FROM NOW
TO FRIDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS PROBLEM IN HWO. WILL DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE THE CONDITIONS FALLING AT KMCB WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING AROUND 08Z...SHOULD FALL TO IFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR...BUT DO EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO END AROUND 14Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAYTIME SCENARIO TODAY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT KMSY AND KGPT...AND TOWARD MIDDAY AT KBTR AND KMCB. WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND TOWARD SUNSET. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SEAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE SUBSIDED INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 74 89 73 / 70 20 70 20
BTR 91 75 89 75 / 70 20 70 20
MSY 87 78 90 75 / 70 20 70 20
GPT 87 76 87 76 / 60 30 50 20