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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-09-2009 05:18 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 090934 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE NO
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF DEEPEST MOISTURE (PW
2.0"+) WILL EXIST FROM THE SE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND PENSACOLA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE SHOULD
SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY NO OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PW VALUES ARE STILL STRONG
ALL THE WAY BACK TO BTR TODAY AND BACK BUILDING VECTORS WILL BEGIN
TO OPPOSE AND EQUAL THE FORWARD MOTION VECTORS BY NOON. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY MAKE SH/TS ACTIVITY LOOK LIKE IT IS SLOWING DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY STALL WHERE THEY ARE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS
TO RECEIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. GROUNDS ARE
GETTING SATURATED AND ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF THIS MAY BEGIN TO
HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

A GENERAL CONVERGENT AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCATED OVER THE
AREA. ATTM IT IS OVER THE CENTRAL MISS GULF COAST. THIS AREA COULD
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS PASCAGOULA OR AS FAR WEST AS NEW ORLEANS.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL BE THE AREA WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THE
GREATEST QPF VALUES. FINAL STORM MOTION WILL SLOW FROM 18KT THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 5KT BY NOON THEN TO ALMOST NOTHING BY EARLY
EVENING. TAKING ALL THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FLOODED ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

I HAVE NO GOOD NEWS IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. ANOTHER WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
AGAIN ON TUE. RIGHT NOW THIS FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF A COLD CORE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE
BAHAMAS. THE WAVE WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT VISITS THE AREA AND
STALLS BY WED.

.LONG TERM...
THE STALLING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US IN A WET PATTERN BUT CAN PROBABLY TAPPER POPS BACK TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL BY THAT TIME DUE TO SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTRUDING
THE MID LEVELS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE FCAST WILL HINGE
GREATLY ON WHAT THE TROUGH AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED DOES
AND GREATLY ON WHERE THEY ARE LOCATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE UPPER SHEAR TO
WEAKEN DOWN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF. WHY DOES THIS
CAUSE CONCERN? B/C THE DEEP MOISTURE AND OLD SFC TROUGH AXIS ARE
SUPPOSED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER...BUT
THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
GULF. WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT IT IS
HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO BOTHERS ME BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CHANGE THE 6-7TH DAY OF THE FCAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS
AGAIN TODAY. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A TOUGH CALL. BASED ON
YESTERDAYS REPORTED CONDITIONS DURING SHRA/TS...PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
LIKELY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR AND LOCALIZED BRIEF VERY LOW
IFR CONDITIONS IN +TSRA LIKE WHAT OCCURRED AT KBTR YESTERDAY. WILL
LIMIT THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE 12Z TAFS TO 15-18Z FOR KMSY AND
KGPT...AND 18-21Z FOR KBTR AND KMCB...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED LATER WITH RADAR TRENDS/DEVELOPMENT.

22/TD
&&

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS MORE OF A STRAIGHT FORWARD BERMUDA RIDGE
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN
SUDDEN HIGHER GUSTS OF WIND. A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK OFF
CLOSE TO OUR WATERS ON MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
SUDDEN HIGHER WINDS/GUSTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES/SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER MID SUMMER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
INLAND SECTIONS OF THE GULF STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

22/TD
&&

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 72 91 72 / 60 20 60 20
BTR 90 74 92 75 / 60 20 60 20
MSY 89 76 90 77 / 70 30 60 30
GPT 89 76 90 78 / 90 30 60 30


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-09-2009 10:13 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1008 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1007 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR MYRTLE GROVE...
OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY MARSHY AREAS OF
THE INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-10-2009 05:52 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONLY FORCING SEEN TODAY WILL BE DIFF HEATING. SO A TREND OF
SH/TS FORMING OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS(NOCTURNALS) AND
MOVING ASHORE GIVING THE COAST THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF
HEATING SHOULD BE THE CASE TODAY AND TOMORROW.

PW VALUES WILL BE IMPORTANT IN FINDING WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL OCCUR. A POCKET OF LOW PW VALUES ARE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE HIGHER NUMBERS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL BE VITAL TODAY B/C IT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS TO HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE THE HIGHER VALUES MOVE
IN. ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN OVER MID 90 SFC TEMPS...AN
EXPLOSION OF SH/TS SHOULD OCCUR. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE LOW
POP NUMBERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR BTR AND MCB AS WELL AS
THE DRAMATIC INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A SLOW ENTRANCE INTO THE DEEP GULF SOUTH BY
WED AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY THU MORNING. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS
SH/TS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT STALLS EITHER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
BY THU NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT
THU WILL CUT OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF BY FRI. THIS
LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX. THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP DOWN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. THEN WE INTRODUCE A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBDUCT THE UPPER HIGH WHERE THERE WILL BE WEAK SHEAR AND A VERY
HOSPITABLE REGION FOR GROWTH. WE MAY SEE THIS AS SOON AS SUNDAY.
WOULD NORMALLY DISMISS THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION SO FAR OUT BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL INITIALIZING VERY WELL AND SHOW THE MODERATE
TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
ROTATION WELL ABOVE THE SFC ALONG 44W. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR
MAYBE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...NOT THE ONE THAT IS GARNISHING
ALL THE ATTENTION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TIMING REMAINS SKETCHY AT
BEST BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE PEAK OF
THE SEASON. NOT VERY OFTEN THAT I WILL MAKE ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO
THE EXTENDED BUT HAVE OPTED TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY. IF THIS CURRENT MODEL TREND
CONTINUES THESE NUMBERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBTR AND KMCB
AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT IMPACTS THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BASICALLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. 11

&&

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRIDAY. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-10-2009 08:10 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 100917
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONLY FORCING SEEN TODAY WILL BE DIFF HEATING. SO A TREND OF
SH/TS FORMING OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS(NOCTURNALS) AND
MOVING ASHORE GIVING THE COAST THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF
HEATING SHOULD BE THE CASE TODAY AND TOMORROW.

PW VALUES WILL BE IMPORTANT IN FINDING WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL OCCUR. A POCKET OF LOW PW VALUES ARE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE HIGHER NUMBERS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL BE VITAL TODAY B/C IT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS TO HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE THE HIGHER VALUES MOVE
IN. ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN OVER MID 90 SFC TEMPS...AN
EXPLOSION OF SH/TS SHOULD OCCUR. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE LOW
POP NUMBERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR BTR AND MCB AS WELL AS
THE DRAMATIC INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A SLOW ENTRANCE INTO THE DEEP GULF SOUTH BY
WED AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY THU MORNING. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS
SH/TS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT STALLS EITHER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
BY THU NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT
THU WILL CUT OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF BY FRI. THIS
LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX. THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP DOWN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. THEN WE INTRODUCE A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBDUCT THE UPPER HIGH WHERE THERE WILL BE WEAK SHEAR AND A VERY
HOSPITABLE REGION FOR GROWTH. WE MAY SEE THIS AS SOON AS SUNDAY.
WOULD NORMALLY DISMISS THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION SO FAR OUT BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL INITIALIZING VERY WELL AND SHOW THE MODERATE
TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
ROTATION WELL ABOVE THE SFC ALONG 44W. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR
MAYBE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...NOT THE ONE THAT IS GARNISHING
ALL THE ATTENTION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TIMING REMAINS SKETCHY AT
BEST BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE PEAK OF
THE SEASON. NOT VERY OFTEN THAT I WILL MAKE ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO
THE EXTENDED BUT HAVE OPTED TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY. IF THIS CURRENT MODEL TREND
CONTINUES THESE NUMBERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBTR AND KMCB
AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT IMPACTS THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BASICALLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. 11

&&

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRIDAY. 11

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 72 93 73 / 50 20 50 20
BTR 94 74 94 75 / 60 20 50 20
MSY 92 77 92 78 / 50 20 40 20
GPT 91 75 92 75 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-11-2009 05:07 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
450 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NOT SURE WHY MOS IS INCREASING POPS 20% OVER YESTERDAY WITH THE
SAME PATTERN. BELIEVE ONE REASON HAS TO DO WITH THE PW VALUES
WHICH ARE QUITE HIGH. WE CAN HAVE ALL THE PW WE WANT AND NOTHING
WILL HAPPEN WITHOUT HEATING. THIS MAY BE WHERE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THINGS...THAT IS ONCE TS DEVELOP THEY CAUSE A CANOPY
WHICH IN TURN BREAKS THE HEAT CYCLE CAUSING STABILITY OVER THOSE
SHADED AREAS. SO NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING THAN YESTERDAY. WE
SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF COVERAGE BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL GET WET.

WE THEN INTRODUCE THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE MID PLAINS AND MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM. THIS WILL HELP
TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WED. SINCE WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM BESIDES HEATING...WE HAVE OPTED TO UP
POP NUMBERS WED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE GULF COAST
BEFORE MOVING JUST OFFSHORE WED NIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL SEND A
STRONG INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR CAPPING OUR RAIN CHANCES
QUITE A BIT THU THROUGH SAT.

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET TRICKY. THE TROPICAL
WAVES ALONG 61W AND 51W LOOK LIKE THEY EVENTUALLY PHASE OVER THE
CARRIBEAN. WE SHOULD SEE THESE FLARE UP WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP DEFINE THEM A LITTLE BETTER. BUT IT
IS THESE OR THE UNIFIED FEATURE OF THESE THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF.
THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENING SHEAR ALOFT BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THIS IS WHERE WE FIND WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS INITIALIZING BETTER
IF AT ALL. ALL DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB YESTERDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
DOING A BETTER JOB THIS MORNING. WITH REGARDS TO THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT...THE GFS CREATES TWO CENTERS AND ELONGATES
THE THE UPPER HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DISTINCT CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS UPPER WINDS OF 10KT WHILE ACTUAL SPEEDS ARE 20KT. THE ECMWF
DOES A VERY GOOD JOB AT REPRESENTING THIS UPPER HIGH. THIS HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD WESTWARD BLOCKING ANY DISTURBANCE FROM
HEADING NORTH UNTIL IT FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE GULF. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...FORCING ANY FEATURE THAT
WOULD DEVELOP INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THEN NW GULF BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. OBVIOUSLY WITH A WEAKER RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE
GFS...THE FEATURE WOULD MOVE INTO FLA. SO ALL IN ALL...IT IS
SIMPLY SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING. HAVE NOT INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE ON THIS PACKAGE. TO BRING POP NUMBERS UP
MORE...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE AGREEMENT WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCB AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT IMPACTS THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL BASICALLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. 11

&&

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. OVERALL...GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-11-2009 12:46 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 111426
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
926 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.UPDATE...

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A VERY MOIST AND
TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.24 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT DUE TO
NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS...CURRENT STORM MOTION IS TOWARD THE
NORTH AT ABOUT 1 KT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE.

CL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-11-2009 01:42 PM

A heavy line of thunderstorms is just crossing the LA/MS line SE of McComb and heading to the SE. Severe Tstorm warning up for Northern Washington Parish. Guess that's the cold front that was talked about in this mornings forecast discussion.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=lix&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-12-2009 05:23 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE AREA. TS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH DIGGING
AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD. COUPLE THIS WITH HEATING
TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOP. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ALL
DAY FOR MCB AND BTR DUE TO THE GENTLE SLOPPING OF THE FRONTAL SFC
AND JUST DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SH/TS.

20-30% FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THU THROUGH SAT AND 10-20% NORTH.
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC SFC LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE NE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL WAVES WILL
THEN ENTER THE EASTERN GULF SAT EVENING. A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MAY MANAGE TO GET ORGANIZED ON THE NORTHERN MOST END
OF THE WAVE WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH THE OLD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT CAUSING A DEEP FETCH
OF 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE KEYS NORTHWARD. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SOME HIGHER TIDE LEVELS.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN INCREASED POP NUMBERS FOR SUN AND MON AS GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FALLING INTO AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN AND INITIALIZED WELL.
MOST OF THESE VARIABLES WILL DEPEND QUITE A BIT ON THE MOISTURE
FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM...
TUE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE GULF AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND HAS ALREADY IMPACTED KMCB AND
AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KBTR PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A DRIER AIRMASS LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.
IN THE NEAR TERM HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL BE A THREAT AT EACH OF
THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KMSY AND KGPT
LIKELY SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY. OUTSIDE ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL END AROUND
SUNSET TODAY. 11

&&

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND AT
TIMES RATHER VARIABLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH TODAY AND APPROACH THE GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI STATIONARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-12-2009 07:15 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 120940
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE AREA. TS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH DIGGING
AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD. COUPLE THIS WITH HEATING
TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOP. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ALL
DAY FOR MCB AND BTR DUE TO THE GENTLE SLOPPING OF THE FRONTAL SFC
AND JUST DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SH/TS.

20-30% FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THU THROUGH SAT AND 10-20% NORTH.
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC SFC LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE NE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL WAVES WILL
THEN ENTER THE EASTERN GULF SAT EVENING. A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MAY MANAGE TO GET ORGANIZED ON THE NORTHERN MOST END
OF THE WAVE WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH THE OLD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT CAUSING A DEEP FETCH
OF 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE KEYS NORTHWARD. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SOME HIGHER TIDE LEVELS.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN INCREASED POP NUMBERS FOR SUN AND MON AS GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FALLING INTO AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN AND INITIALIZED WELL.
MOST OF THESE VARIABLES WILL DEPEND QUITE A BIT ON THE MOISTURE
FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM...
TUE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE GULF AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND HAS ALREADY IMPACTED KMCB AND
AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KBTR PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A DRIER AIRMASS LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.
IN THE NEAR TERM HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL BE A THREAT AT EACH OF
THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KMSY AND KGPT
LIKELY SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY. OUTSIDE ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL END AROUND
SUNSET TODAY. 11

&&

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND AT
TIMES RATHER VARIABLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH TODAY AND APPROACH THE GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI STATIONARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. 11

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 71 93 69 / 30 10 10 10
BTR 93 73 95 73 / 40 10 10 10
MSY 90 76 92 75 / 60 20 20 20
GPT 91 73 92 72 / 60 20 20 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-13-2009 04:05 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 130505 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1205 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS COVERAGE OF
DAYTIME CONVECTION AS COLUMN HAS DRIED OUT WITH WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 93 70 92 / 10 10 10 20
BTR 73 93 72 92 / 10 20 10 30
MSY 75 92 77 89 / 20 20 20 30
GPT 72 91 73 90 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&