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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-05-2009 07:32 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 050926
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE HRS. THE TS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THATS VIS THROUGH 11-3.9 SAT AND SFC WIND OBS.
ALSO...RUC13 SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA ALONG.
ISO TO SCT STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON.

A QUITE STRONG MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY IN
WESTERN KY THROUGH SERN MO. THE LINE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AT AROUND 45 MPH. QUESTION STILL REMAINS ON IF
THIS FEATURE WILL EVEN REACH THE CWA. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A 00-06Z
TIME FRAME FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THAT
TIME...INSTANTLY WILL BE MUCH LESS AND RUC SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER VORT
MAX FORCING. SO...CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE OUTFLOW DRIVING MCS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AR/MS TODAY. BY THE TIME IT REACHES
SE LA AND SOUTHERN MISS...ONLY A FEW SHWRS AND TSRMS WILL BE LEFT.

MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE USUAL DAILY SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY. SO HAVE AFTN POPS HIGHER
FROM HOUMA TO SLIDELL AND SEWD. OTHER AREAS MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS 850 TEMPS COME UP BUT ONLY LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR
TWO.

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS. AREAS
NORTH OF I-10 WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST. SCT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS BTW THIS RIDGE AND
ONE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE SUPPRESS
SOUTHWARD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS THIS HIGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SERN US. A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF SOUTH LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S...HEAT INDICIES WILL PROBABLY STILL GET INTO THE LOWER 100S IF
NOT UP TO 105. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2 INCHES
AND REMAINING THERE. WITH SUCH MOISTURE ON TAP...30 TO 40 POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VIS WILL CONTINUE AT MCB AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPS AT GPT THIS
MORNING AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LOWERS AND -BR DEVELOPS BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH NOT IN TAFS...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS TODAY. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A TERMINAL BEING IMPACTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP. SFC RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA WILL KEEP
WINDS QUITE WEAK...PEAKING AROUND 6 KTS. SCT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AROUND 3K FT. VFR WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE GULF AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY AND BARELY DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BECOME TOO
INTENSE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CAUSING THE WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE
NORTH DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 72 93 71 / 10 40 30 10
BTR 95 75 94 75 / 10 30 30 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-05-2009 12:17 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1206 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.UPDATE...
WILL BE SENDING UPDATES TO THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO BRING POPS UP TO
60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE AND DECAYING MCS MOVING DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE REACHING US DURING MAXIMUM HEATING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR 2 INCH P.W. VALUES...ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WET MICROBURSTS
WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FROM WARMING ANVILS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WANTED TO BRING EXISTING FORECAST IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS AND THINKING. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ONLY ADJUSTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM TO MATCH THE POP CHANGES.

AN 18Z SPECIAL RELEASE SOUNDING IS BEING PREPPED TO ASSESS THE
AIRMASS. A FOLLOW-UP DISCUSSION WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED TO UPDATE
THE SITUATION. CHAP OUTPUT FROM 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED 65 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH GUST POTENTIAL AROUND 35 MPH...NO HAIL AND
ONLY WATERSPOUT POTENTIALS BASED ON ACTUAL SOUNDING INPUT...THOUGH
MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING A LOW RISK TORNADO CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC SLIGHT RISK REASONING FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS SUPPORTED
BY IMPLICATION IN LATEST UPDATES TO HWO PRODUCTS AND GRAPHICS. 24/RR


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-05-2009 12:19 PM

[Image: HWO.png?1219]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-06-2009 05:32 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT
DEVELOPED FROM A REMNANT OVERNIGHT MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. AN
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORM ON THE WESTERN SIDE APPEARS TO BE BREAKING
OFF AND MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY BUT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS SEVERAL FEATURES THAT ARE AN COULD
IMPACT TODAYS FORECAST. THE FIRST ONE IS AN MCV MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN MS AND AL. A PIECE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE COASTALS IS BEING PULLED INTO THIS MCV. THIS
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR EARLY MORNING SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.
THEN...AND AREA OF STRETCHED VORTICITY EXIST WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN MS THROUGH KENTUCKY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND IS MOVING EASTWARD. 65KT JET
WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SEND VORT MAXES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2
INCHES DURING THE DAY. ONE POSSIBLE SUPPRESSION TO RAIN DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE LOWER THETA E AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NE PER RUC. NAM SEEMS
WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ON POPS WITH 70 AT BTR. GFS COMES IN A LITTLE LESS
WITH 40S AND 50S. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A
CONSERVATIVE POP FORECAST OF 30 TO 40 PCT FOR NWRN CWA AND TRENDED
DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CLOUD COVER AND STORMS SHOULD BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR IN HIGH TEMPS AND KEEP THE AREA NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. IT WILL COMPRESS
AS IS MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND SHOULD SEE A SOMEWHAT DRIER
DAY WITH ISOLATED TSRMS. HIGHS WILL BUMP BACK UP CLOSER TO MID 90S.
AS THIS RIDGE REACHES THE SERN CONUS...STRONG SERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS THE THEN BROAD UPPER HIGH
COVERING THE EXTENT OF THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN GETS SPLIT IN HALF BY AN
UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS...EXCEPT
TEMPO MVFR VSBY BR POSSIBLE AT KMCB 10-13Z. CHANCE/COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY IS AROUND 35 PERCENT AT KBTR...30 PERCENT AT KMSY
AND KMCB...AND NEAR 25 PERCENT AT KGPT. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT WILL
TAKE SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO GET THE CONVECTION GOING. GIVEN THERE
IS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE COASTAL
SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE DURING MAX HEATING.
WILL LIKELY CONVERT THE PROB30 GROUP TO EITHER A TEMPO TSRA FOR A
COUPLE HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON...OR INDICATE A VCTS.

22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE MOSTLY
EXITED THE COASTAL WATERS TO OUR WEST AS OF 4 AM. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A WIDE VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOTS RANGE. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A BERMUDA RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 3
TO 4 FEET RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN
ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING WINDS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER WESTERN WATERS...THEN MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 08-06-2009 09:06 AM

One heck of a lightening storm last night.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-07-2009 06:04 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE
EXTREME NERN US. MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUITE
DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE RIDGE TRACKS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY ATMO COLUMN
AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CONFINED
ISOLATED STORMS TO CWA COASTAL PARISHES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND AREAS THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SERN CONUS
BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE AREA. BEGAN INCREASING POPS ALONG THE COAST
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS BUT
COULD HAVE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A DAY EARLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA A LITTLE
FASTER. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
BRINGS IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
BE THE NORM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 60 TO 70 PCT COVERAGE MAY BE A
LITTLE SHY OF ACTUAL SO COULD HAVE TO UP THOSE UP A LITTLE AS THE
EVENT NEARS. STORMS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPRESS HIGHS
SOMEWHAT TO UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY 90.

EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK WILL STAND THE CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST SCT
COVERAGE AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE FROM TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S BY MONDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH CONVECTION REMAINING TOO
ISOLATED TO INCLUDE ANY SHRA/TS IN THE TAFS. THINGS WILL CHANGE ON
SATURDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGS HIGHER CHANCES OF SHRA/TS AND
TEMPO MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OR
EXTEND BACK WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARDS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH THIS
FEATURE AS THE NAM LOOKS TOO STRONG SHOWING 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
SATURDAY AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS. AM CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS WHICH INDICATES 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF
WIND WAVES AND SWELL SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 3 FEET
RANGE TONIGHT AND 3 TO 4 FEET RANGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-07-2009 10:57 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 071319
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
819 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A MUCH DRIER SOUNDING
THIS MORNING WITH STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH A PW OF 1.46
INCHES AND AN LI OF -5.5. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TODAY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2009/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE
EXTREME NERN US. MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUITE
DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE RIDGE TRACKS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY ATMO COLUMN
AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CONFINED
ISOLATED STORMS TO CWA COASTAL PARISHES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND AREAS THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SERN CONUS
BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE AREA. BEGAN INCREASING POPS ALONG THE COAST
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS BUT
COULD HAVE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A DAY EARLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA A LITTLE
FASTER. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
BRINGS IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
BE THE NORM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 60 TO 70 PCT COVERAGE MAY BE A
LITTLE SHY OF ACTUAL SO COULD HAVE TO UP THOSE UP A LITTLE AS THE
EVENT NEARS. STORMS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPRESS HIGHS
SOMEWHAT TO UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY 90.

EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK WILL STAND THE CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST SCT
COVERAGE AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE FROM TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S BY MONDAY.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH CONVECTION REMAINING TOO
ISOLATED TO INCLUDE ANY SHRA/TS IN THE TAFS. THINGS WILL CHANGE ON
SATURDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGS HIGHER CHANCES OF SHRA/TS AND
TEMPO MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

22/TD

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OR
EXTEND BACK WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARDS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH THIS
FEATURE AS THE NAM LOOKS TOO STRONG SHOWING 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
SATURDAY AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS. AM CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS WHICH INDICATES 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF
WIND WAVES AND SWELL SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 3 FEET
RANGE TONIGHT AND 3 TO 4 FEET RANGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

22/TD

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-08-2009 05:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKS WET FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATCHING A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVING WEST. THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED A MID LEVEL VORT
CENTER THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROCEED ON TO THE LCH AREA BY NOON. A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
SUPPLIED BY A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STRONGLY INDICATED BY FCAST SOUNDING
PROFILES HAVING CONVECTIVE AND TRIGGER TEMPS VERY CLOSE TOGETHER
AND WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF GENERAL GULF WATER TEMPS. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BY ADDING SOME DYNAMIC STRUCTURE
TO THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE CAUSING TS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AS
IT PASSES TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG WITH A GENERAL CONVERGENCE OFF
THE GULF WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE 80% FOR MSY. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. EACH DAY
LOOKS TO HOLD SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL REFLECTION...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MORE PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND UNIFORMITY OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS SH/TS SHOULD SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED TO
THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. SOME TRAINING ALSO MAY OCCUR TOWARD NOON
AND AFTER AS WELL. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ONE OR
TWO LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE INCONVENIECES
AND POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES IN A FEW AREAS. THE OTHER POTENTIAL THAT
IS LIGHTING UP THE STATS WILL BE WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY. WILL MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON HEAVY
RAINFALL IN HWO.

.LONG TERM...
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...POP NUMBERS SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NORMAL OR WITHIN +/-10%. EACH DAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A STRONG OR SEVERE TS AND CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE DIURNAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS...AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS IMPULSE WILL HELP
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE MVFR
RANGE AT TIMES TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

&&


MARINE...
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO NORTH
FLORIDA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOME AREAS
OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG COASTAL MISSISSIPI AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-08-2009 08:26 AM

00
FXUS64 KLIX 080859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKS WET FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATCHING A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVING WEST. THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED A MID LEVEL VORT
CENTER THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROCEED ON TO THE LCH AREA BY NOON. A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
SUPPLIED BY A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STRONGLY INDICATED BY FCAST SOUNDING
PROFILES HAVING CONVECTIVE AND TRIGGER TEMPS VERY CLOSE TOGETHER
AND WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF GENERAL GULF WATER TEMPS. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BY ADDING SOME DYNAMIC STRUCTURE
TO THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE CAUSING TS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AS
IT PASSES TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG WITH A GENERAL CONVERGENCE OFF
THE GULF WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE 80% FOR MSY. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. EACH DAY
LOOKS TO HOLD SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL REFLECTION...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MORE PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND UNIFORMITY OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS SH/TS SHOULD SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED TO
THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. SOME TRAINING ALSO MAY OCCUR TOWARD NOON
AND AFTER AS WELL. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ONE OR
TWO LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE INCONVENIECES
AND POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES IN A FEW AREAS. THE OTHER POTENTIAL THAT
IS LIGHTING UP THE STATS WILL BE WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY. WILL MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON HEAVY
RAINFALL IN HWO.

.LONG TERM...
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...POP NUMBERS SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NORMAL OR WITHIN +/-10%. EACH DAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A STRONG OR SEVERE TS AND CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE DIURNAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS...AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS IMPULSE WILL HELP
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE MVFR
RANGE AT TIMES TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

&&


MARINE...
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO NORTH
FLORIDA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOME AREAS
OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG COASTAL MISSISSIPI AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 73 89 72 / 60 20 60 20
BTR 90 75 90 75 / 60 20 60 20
MSY 88 78 89 78 / 80 30 60 20
GPT 88 77 89 76 / 80 30 60 20


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-09-2009 05:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE NO
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF DEEPEST MOISTURE (PW
2.0"+) WILL EXIST FROM THE SE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND PENSACOLA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE SHOULD
SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY NO OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PW VALUES ARE STILL STRONG
ALL THE WAY BACK TO BTR TODAY AND BACK BUILDING VECTORS WILL BEGIN
TO OPPOSE AND EQUAL THE FORWARD MOTION VECTORS BY NOON. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY MAKE SH/TS ACTIVITY LOOK LIKE IT IS SLOWING DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY STALL WHERE THEY ARE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS
TO RECEIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. GROUNDS ARE
GETTING SATURATED AND ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF THIS MAY BEGIN TO
HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

A GENERAL CONVERGENT AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCATED OVER THE
AREA. ATTM IT IS OVER THE CENTRAL MISS GULF COAST. THIS AREA COULD
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS PASCAGOULA OR AS FAR WEST AS NEW ORLEANS.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL BE THE AREA WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THE
GREATEST QPF VALUES. FINAL STORM MOTION WILL SLOW FROM 18KT THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 5KT BY NOON THEN TO ALMOST NOTHING BY EARLY
EVENING. TAKING ALL THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FLOODED ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

I HAVE NO GOOD NEWS IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. ANOTHER WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
AGAIN ON TUE. RIGHT NOW THIS FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF A COLD CORE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE
BAHAMAS. THE WAVE WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT VISITS THE AREA AND
STALLS BY WED.

.LONG TERM...
THE STALLING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US IN A WET PATTERN BUT CAN PROBABLY TAPPER POPS BACK TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL BY THAT TIME DUE TO SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTRUDING
THE MID LEVELS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE FCAST WILL HINGE
GREATLY ON WHAT THE TROUGH AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED DOES
AND GREATLY ON WHERE THEY ARE LOCATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE UPPER SHEAR TO
WEAKEN DOWN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF. WHY DOES THIS
CAUSE CONCERN? B/C THE DEEP MOISTURE AND OLD SFC TROUGH AXIS ARE
SUPPOSED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER...BUT
THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
GULF. WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT IT IS
HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO BOTHERS ME BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CHANGE THE 6-7TH DAY OF THE FCAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS
AGAIN TODAY. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A TOUGH CALL. BASED ON
YESTERDAYS REPORTED CONDITIONS DURING SHRA/TS...PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
LIKELY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR AND LOCALIZED BRIEF VERY LOW
IFR CONDITIONS IN +TSRA LIKE WHAT OCCURRED AT KBTR YESTERDAY. WILL
LIMIT THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE 12Z TAFS TO 15-18Z FOR KMSY AND
KGPT...AND 18-21Z FOR KBTR AND KMCB...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED LATER WITH RADAR TRENDS/DEVELOPMENT.

22/TD
&&

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS MORE OF A STRAIGHT FORWARD BERMUDA RIDGE
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN
SUDDEN HIGHER GUSTS OF WIND. A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK OFF
CLOSE TO OUR WATERS ON MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
SUDDEN HIGHER WINDS/GUSTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES/SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER MID SUMMER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
INLAND SECTIONS OF THE GULF STATES MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.