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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-27-2009 04:40 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS ANOTHER RATHER QUIET NIGHT. OUR ATMOSPHERE WAS
WORKED OVER PRETTY EXTENSIVELY YESTERDAY AFTN/EVN AND THIS KEPT US
FROM SEEING MUCH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHRA WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAKLY DEFINED BNDRY WHICH IS BASICALLY LAID OUT
ACROSS SWRN LA AND INTO CNTRL MS.

TODAY THROUGH WED...THE L/W TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE BUT THE
SHARP TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA IS ALREADY
FLATTENING OUT AND AS ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WORKS SOUTH THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS IT SHOULD GET A NEW AXIS TO DEVELOP JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST BY TUE. AT THE SAME TIME THE BERMUDA RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
EXPANDS WEST...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING ABOUT DEEP SWRLY FLOW
PROVIDING THE CWA WITH A VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS. THAT BNDRY WHICH
AGAIN IS WEAKLY DEFINED WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT AS SWRLY FLOW TAKES OVER. THE MCS THAT
WAS MOVING THROUGH NE TX WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE H85 THETA E AXIS BUT THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO
MOVE SE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL GET SCT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE BNDRY WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MS AND
ACROSS THE BORDER INTO LA NORTH OF I 12. OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA WILL
ALSO HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING CONVECTION BUT A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BNDRIES AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION. HEADING INTO TOMORROW AND
THROUGH WED...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE SEABREEZE AND ONCE IT
DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER EARLY IN THE MORNING IT WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE OUTFLOW BNDRIES FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL SPARK
OFF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT RATHER EASILY. FROM A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS GOING TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS WILL BE ATA 2"...K INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
35-38C...AND H85 THETA E VALUES SHOULD REMAIN B/T 334-340K. THIS
WILL LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT TIME.

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. THE L/W TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT
REALLY STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A
RIDGE TRYING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THERE IS NOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY SUN BUT MORE SO AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING BACK THE PATTERN WHICH WE SAW
MUCH OF LAST WEEK WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS(WRN
RIDGE/ERN TROUGH). RIGHT NOW I WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT
THIS TIME AS BOTH YESTERDAY SHOWED THE L/W TROUGH STARTING TO
FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT WITH A WEAKER RIDGE DEVELOPING BUT WILL WATCH
FOR TRENDS AS ONE MDLS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO REMAIN WHILE
THE OTHER MDL SUGGEST A RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND DRIER WEATHER.

THU THROUGH SAT...WE WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE WITH THE OVERNIGHTS QUIET ONCE AGAIN. FLATTENING OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE UNDER WAY WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE GULF. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD GET ACTIVATED EACH DAY
AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO PENETRATE WELL
INLAND. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LVL FLOW MAY
ALSO LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH AFTN WITH A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WHILE
MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

SUN AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FCST BECOMES MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A RIDGE MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SW AND BUILD EAST. HGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH LL TEMPS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS BACK AT OR EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO ABV NORMAL. ALSO RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO
BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS STILL 7 DAYS OR MORE OUT AND IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT, WE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE BACK INTO NW FLOW WHICH COULD DROP
ANOTHER FRONT TWRDS THE AREA BUT GIVEN BY THAT TIME IT WILL BE
EARLY AUGUST I NEED TO SEE A FEW MORE RUNS OF THAT SCENARIO BEFORE
I JUMP ON THAT SHIP. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TWOFOLD THIS MORNING. FIRST IS POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS ARE SMALL THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND AIR IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS MORNING THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. KBTR OBSERVATION REPORTING MIFG...SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

SECOND PROBLEM WILL BE CONVECTION. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN KMCB AND KJAN...IN VICINITY OF A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY. THIS
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS MORNING. EVEN IF
IT DOES NOT...AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. INHERITED FORECAST
CARRIES TEMPO GROUPS IN ALL 4 TERMINALS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO REASON TO BACK OFF THIS. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. 35

&&

.MARINE...
SEE NO REAL REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE SCENARIO.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-28-2009 05:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...ANOTHER RAINY DAY IN STORE...

.SHORT TERM...WET DAY YESTERDAY AND LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN STORE FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS OF DECENT RAIN COVERAGE. ANOTHER MCS HAD
DEVELOPED DURING THE EVN AND OVERNIGHT HRS IN NE TX/NW LA. THIS MCS
WAS MOVING TO THE SE BUT I DO EXPECT IT TO TAKE MORE OF A EWRD
MOTION TWRDS THE HIGHER LL MOISTURE AND CONVERGANCE. THAT SAID WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR NWRN ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS.

TODAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE ONE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN
PLACE AND WITH PRETTY DEEP SRLY-SWRLY FLOW ALL THE WAY TO H7 THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE PRETTY EARLY AND PENETRATE WELL INLAND
AGAIN TODAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER OUR AREA
TODAY AS THE L/W TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT BUT THE
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS ASSOCAITED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR
NW WILL SLIDE TO THE ESE BRUSHING BY OUR NRN ZONES. THIS AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE SEABREEZE
AND THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA AND TSRA WILL OCCUR.
AGAIN WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE(PWS OVER 2" AND H85 THETA
E AIR OF 340K) SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LEADING TO 1 TO 2" OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT TIME
FRAME.

WED AND THU...RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE A GOOD BIT ABV NORMAL.
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PWS RIGHT AROUND 2" STILL. THE MID
LVL FLOW DOES BECOME MORE ZONAL BUT THAT WILL STILL SEND WEAK
IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. SRLY-SWRLY FLOW UP TO H7 WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE AND WITH ALL OF THAT THE SEABREEZE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE.
THU COULD BE A LITTLE INTERESTING FROM THE STANDPOINT OF HOW FAR AND
FAST THE SEABREEZE MOVES TO THE NORTH. H85 FLOW REALLY INCREASES
OVERNIGHT WED AND I COULD EASILY SEE THIS LEADING TO CONVECTION
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE THU AND PUSHING WELL INLAND BEFORE MIDDAY.
IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN THE COASTAL ZONES COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE
RAIN FROM LATE MORNING TILL LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN SHRA AND TSRA HAVE
A SHOT OF REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE SEABREEZE.

.LONG TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO
HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HOW THE HANDLE THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND ERN CONUS TROUGH BUT
BY TUE THEY BOTH HAVE A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS AGREES
RATHER WELL WITH YESTERDAY`S GFS AND WITH THAT I WILL STICK CLOSER
TO THE GFS/MEX WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE FCST.

FRI AND SAT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABV NORMAL. MOISTURE IS STILL
IN ABUNDANCE AND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER OLD MEXICO/DESERT SW WE WILL
MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS B/T THAT RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR
WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ATLEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BOTH
DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

SUN THROUGH TUE...THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BUILD TO THE
EAST CAUSING HGHTS TO RISE 593-594DM AND MID LVL TEMPS TO CLIMB TO
AROUND -6C. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. H925 TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH 25C AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. TUE EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE IS STARTING TO FLATTEN
OUT IT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A WARMER AND DRIER DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE AND THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE FCST BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE BREAKING DOWN. THIS WOULD PUT THE CWA BACK IN NW FLOW
WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN SEND A FRONT OR TWO TWRDS THE REGION. THIS IS
NOT A NORMAL PATTERN BUT IS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE MOSTLY THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING. MAIN COMPLEX IS STILL BACK AROUND SHREVEPORT...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA BEFORE MIDMORNING...ASSUMING IT
HOLDS TOGETHER...BUT TOPS APPEAR TO BE WARMING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO. WILL SEE WHERE BOUNDARY FROM COMPLEX ENDS UP THIS MORNING.

WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS INTO KMCB TAF AS OF 10Z...AND KBTR AROUND THE
SAME TIME. CURRENT TAF HAS VCTS IN TERMINALS FOR AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT THAT WILL NEED TO BE BEEFED UP AT 12Z PACKAGE
ISSUANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

PRECIPITATION WAS RATHER LIGHT NEAR TERMINALS YESTERDAY AND HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY HINTS THAT FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THROUGH FORECAST ISSUANCE. 35

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD. ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST AT MAINLY 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15KTS LATER THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SEAS GENERALLY WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET AND THEN 2 TO 4 FEET IN
OUTER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE OVER LAND WITH SOME BLEEDING OVER INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS. LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS SHOULD HAVE DAILY STORMS
MOVE ACROSS AND LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-29-2009 04:23 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...THINGS QUIETED DOWN NICELY OVERNIGHT BUT LIGHT SHRA
HAVE BEEN TRYING TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MS/LA BORDER
WITH HEAVIER SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA OFF TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE
VICKSBURG AND JACKSON METRO`S. LOOK FOR ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN TODAY.

TODAY AND TOMORROW...L/W TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BUT
THE BASE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTENED OUT OVER OUR AREA WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED OF OVER THE REGION DURING THE TIME.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION AND
WITH EACH IMPULSE SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EASILY
THANKS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE. THE BULK
OF MID/UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA WITH OUR NRN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING RAIN. IN
ADDITION TO THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE AND CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL IT
DEVELOPS AND WHATEVER OTHER BNDRY`S ARE OUT THERE(THIS INCLUDES
LEFT OVER BNDRIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BNDRY`S PRODUCED TODAY). AS
MENTIONED EARLIER RICH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO START TO GET SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. NOW
FOR TOMORROW I FULLY EXPECT IT TO BE MORE OF A SEABREEZE ISSUE.
SRLY WINDS WILL BE A GOOD BIT STRONGER/DEEPER AND MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE ABUNDANT( RIGHT AT 2"). AS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE BUT ALL IT WILL TAKE
WILL BE EITHER DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING TO GET A STORM OR TWO TO
POKE UP TO STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS. OVERALL THOUGH WITH A TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
CONTROL WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND MAYBE SOME WIND GUSTS.

FRI AND INTO FRI NIGHT FROM A STANDPOINT OF RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE DIFFERENCE IS WE
WILL START TO SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE DESERT SW WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY TRY TO SEND A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. RICH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND AS
THIS STRONGER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY BE IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE TROPICAL IN NATURE WHICH GENERALLY
DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
SEND A COOL POCKET OVER THE REGION INCREASING THE LAPSE RATES TO
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK OF A FEW MORE POTENT STORMS.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE IN THE DESERT
SW BUILDING AND EXPANDING EAST. BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST WHILE THE DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY
WILL CARVE OUT ANOTHER SHARP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH
WILL TRY TO PUT THE CWA BACK IN NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SO I WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
GFS/MEX.

THIS WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
AND BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A
TRANSITION DAY AS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WEAKNESS B/T TWO RIDGES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND AFTER WE HEAT UP SCT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY POP UP ACROSS THE CWA. BY SUN THE RIDGE WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO BUILD TO THE EAST. MID LVL TEMPS WILL RISE ALONG WITH HGHTS AND
THIS SHOULD HAVE SOME EFFECT ON CONVECTION KEEPING THE REGION A
LITTLE DRIER...HOWEVER ISLTD TO SCT TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BY
AFTN THANKS TO THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL
WARM SOME AND BE A FEW DEGREES ABV CLIMO AS LL TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY. LOWS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL ACTUALLY BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID
WEEK WHEN THE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED. A FEW STRONGER
DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SW OUT OF THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK
DOWN THE ERN FRINGES OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE PUTTING THE CWA BACK
INTO NW FLOW BY LATE WED AND THUS TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER FRONT
TWRDS THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...MOST PRECIP ACTIVITY IS TO THE NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS.
SEEING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT
ONLY FORECAST TERMINAL WITH CURRENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS KMCB
WHERE IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS
ON TUESDAY. AIRMASS IS STILL RATHER MOIST AND VCSH WILL BE COMMON
FOR ALL BUT KMSY. WILL ONLY CARRY THUNDER AT KMCB FOR NOW...BUT AS
BOUNDARIES SET UP LATER IN THE DAY...WE MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER AT
ONE OR MORE OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT ALL CONVECTION TO DIE OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL LIKELY NEED TO INTRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO KMCB TERMINAL FOR 08Z-12Z WHEN NEW 12Z PACKAGE
ISSUED. 35

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT THE USUAL EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT GAIN STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-30-2009 05:59 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BEING
B/T DISTURBANCES...AND SOUTH OF THE BEST FORCING REALLY MADE
THINGS DIFFICULT FROM A CONVECTION STANDPOINT YESTERDAY. PWS WERE
STILL JUST ABV 1.75" WHICH IS NOT DRY BUT COMPARED TO 2.21 THE 24
HRS BEFORE IS A PRETTY GOOD DROP AND B/C OF THAT WE WERE GOING TO
NEED A LITTLE MORE FORCING WHICH WE SHOULD GET(AND SEEM TO ALREADY
BE GETTING) TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS IT IS EXTREMELY MUGGY OUT THERE
AND NUMEROUS SITES WERE STILL IN THE 80S AT 8Z.

TODAY...AS MENTIONED ALREADY WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER FORCING TODAY IN
THE FORM OF STRONG SRLY FLOW. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWA AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES PUSH EAST BUT WITH A STRONG S/W MOVING THROUGH THE
TX PANHANDLE AND CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE IN W TX THE LL WINDS
ARE ALREADY RESPONDING. LIX VWP IS ALREADY SHOWING 20KTS AT 3K FT
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE ANOTHER 5 TO POSSIBLY 10KTS OVER THE NEXT
3-6HRS. IT HAS ALREADY CAUSED SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF. I EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND JUST INLAND BY SUNRISE WITH THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
EARLY AND MOVING INLAND PRETTY QUICK. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NRN HLF/3RD WILL BE
INTERESTING AS IT COULD BE B/T THE SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCES.
THIS WOULD PUT SRN MS AND JUST ACROSS THE LA BORDER IN A
SUBSIDENCE REGION WHICH WOULD HINDER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW I WILL
STICK WITH 40% POPS ADVERTISED BY THE MAV ACROSS MY NRN/NWRN
ZONES BUT BUMP POPS UP TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND LAKE.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THIS TIME FRAME GETS INTERESTING. CONVECTION
WILL DIE DOWN AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING BUT WE COULD SEE CONVECTION
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE S/W MOVING THROUGH WRN
TX WILL MOVE INTO THE LA EARLY THIS EVN AND HELP TO PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO ERN TX/NRN LA. AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST THE FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP SWRD THROUGH THE MORNING
APPROACHING THE CWA. ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM CONTINUING ALONG THIS BNDRY OVERNIGHT. AS THE THAT
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ANOTHER IMPULSE(WHICH AT 8Z APPEARED
TO BE IN WRN NEW MEXICO) WILL QUICKLY BE ON ITS HEELS. THIS ADDED
FORCING SHOULD EASILY GET MORE CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOISTURE WILL POOL UP AND AS WE HEAT UP A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SVR TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS.

SAT AND SUN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT S/W A WEAKNESS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OF US KEEPING US IN WEAK NW FLOW THROUGH WED. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND WHERE
INSTEAD OF BOTH MDLS SUGGESTING THE WRN CONUS RIDGE RETURNING THEY
ARE NOW SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD MEAN A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.

MON THROUGH WED...AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO BUILD WE
WILL MOVE BACK UNDER WEAK NW FLOW. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR THUS
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORMAL IF NOT BELOW NORMAL BUT IT WILL
ALSO TRY TO PUSH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TWRDS THE CWA AROUND THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME. UNTIL THAT FRONT GETS HERE(IF IT DOES...REMEMBER WE ARE
GOING TO BE IN AUGUST NOW) CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ISLTD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN
AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVN HRS THANKS TO THE NW FLOW. IF THAT FRONT
IS IN THE VICINTY THEN IT WILL BRING WITH IT A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT PRESENT ARE AT KMCB WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE
OCCURRING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS CLOSER
TO SUNRISE...WITH CLOUDS AROUND 2K FEET. MCB COULD SEE VSBYS DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR AN HOUR OR SO AROUND SUNRISE. A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE AT KMCB TOMORROW MORNING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

OTHER PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE CONVECTION. DRIER AIRMASS APPEARS
TO HAVE TAKEN HOLD...WITH AREAL COVERAGE DURING DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE...OR POSSIBLY SCATTERED AT BEST.
CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH ENOUGH THREAT AT THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY TEMPO OR
PREVAILING. MAY END UP WITH A VCTS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AT KMSY AND
KGPT...BUT A FINAL DECISION HAS NOT BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
NOCTURNAL GULF CONVECTION COULD AFFECT KGPT BEFORE 12Z PACKAGE GOES
OUT. 35

&&

.MARINE...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. AFFECTS FROM
STRONG RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THEN...POSSIBLY A MORE SERN COMPONENT AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING
AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE SAME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO
STILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST A FEW WATERSPOUTS TO FORM. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-31-2009 06:03 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

...ANOTHER WET DAY IN STORE FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...

.SHORT TERM...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN THE ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
THE FIRST HAS BEEN A DECAYING MCS THAT MOVED OUT OF THE ERN TX ALONG
A BNDRY. THE SRN END OF THE BNDRY HAS NOW FOR ALL PURPOSES STALLED
ACROSS THE SERN TX/SWRN LA BORDER AND THIS HAS BEEN LEADING TO SOME
IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS WITH TRAINING STORMS. THE OTHER WHICH IS
ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND NE ACROSS COASTAL MS HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE H85 THETA E RIDGE AND LL WINDS UP TO 25KT. BOTH OF THESE
WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE FCST IN THE FIRST 6-12HRS.

THE FIRST ISSUE AND WHICH PROBABLY DOES`NT APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST
CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. TRAINING
MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THESE AREAS AS THE LL FLOW IS ORIENTED IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE H85 THETA E RIDGE. THE THETA E RIDGE WILL
BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED AND DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUIT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE IS GOING TO BE LATER THIS MORNING AND TODAY WITH
THE BNDRY WHICH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE CWA AND COULD LEAD TO A
FLASH FLOODING ISSUE. A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT
TO HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT AS
THIS BNDRY MOVES INTO THE CWA IT COULD BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE
E-W LA/MS BORDER. MID LVL FLOW WILL PARALLEL THIS BNDRY WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS AS SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO REFIRE WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES IN THE WESTERLIES. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE(PWS NEAR 2.25" AND K INDEX VALUES COULD
APPROACH 40C) WITH LL MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BNDRY(H85 THETA E VALUES OF 340-345K!!!). THE GFS/GEFS/SREF ALL
AGREE WITH MY THINKING OF THE BNDRY ANCHORING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION THEN TRAINING
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTN AND THESE
STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WE DID CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
NEW ROADS TO FRANKLINTON BUT THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT CONCERN ME.
FIRST SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MDLS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
BNDRY MAY GET A GOOD PUSH SOUTH AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND THIS
COULD BE DUE TO COLD POOLING. TO BE HONEST I DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH I
AM BUYING THAT ESPECIALLY SINCE NEITHER OF THE MESOSCALE MDLS ARE
HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA VERY WELL
AND THIS ENVIRONMENT ISN`T THE GREATEST FOR COLD POOLING.
SECOND...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE UNDER THE RFQ OF THE UPPER JET WHICH
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH MAY BE THE REASON THE GFS
DOES NOT HAVE HIGHER QPF. AFTER COORIDNATION WITH JAN I WILL HANDLE
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST BUT WILL
CLOSLEY MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE IF WE NEED TO ELEVATE THE
SITUATION FURTHER.

EARLY THIS WEEKEND WE WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE GOOD RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TOMORROW AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ON SUN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW/4
CORNERS REGION BUILDS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ACTUALLY PUSH JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL START TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL ALSO START TO WARM ON SUN.

.LONG TERM...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER AND WARMER SCENARIO
SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST AND PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO THE
ERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK WITH A WEAKNESS REMAINING ACROSS THE SERN
CONUS. THIS COULD LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT RIGHT NOW I WILL JUST STICK WITH THE
GFS/MEX WHICH HAS POPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

MON AND TUE...BY MON NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH PWS COMING
ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN TO B/T 1.5 AND 1.75". THIS ALONG WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LL WILL LEAD TO MUCH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST 5-6 DAYS. LL
TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RISE WITH HIGHS ON MON AND TUE IN THE
MID 90S.

FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH FRI...THE FCST BEGINS TO
GET A LITTLE COMPLICATED. THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST
BUT WE WILL BE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LVLS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AL/GA/FL REGION AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE AND THAT WEAKNESS COULD RETROGRADE
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY DETACHING AND BECOMING A ERLY WAVE ACROSS THE
GULF. THUS WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES
TO RETURN. /CAB/

THANKS TO JAN FOR COORDINATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY. WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
AT 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER...WILL CARRY VCSH/VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE EACH TERMINAL WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION...TIMING IS UNCERTAIN
AND WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS FOR LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS
AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO EASE AT BUOY 42007 AND THE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM THIS MORNING. AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ONCE AGAIN RELAX. EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 95/DM


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-01-2009 04:59 AM

XUS64 KLIX 010925
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ESTABLISHED OVER P/CWA WILL REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. 00Z SOUNDING HAD PRECIP WATER VALUES OF
1.95 INCHES AT KLIX AND 2.06 AT KLCH...WITH LI VALUES OF -6.5 AND
-5.7 RESPECTIVELY. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
REGION. WEATHER GENERALLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AM.
THESE SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT REPEAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER P/CWA AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ARLATX REGION...AS BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS EAST THROUGH SHORT TERM. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WILL SERVE TO FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
MOISTURE-RICH AIR...AS MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
NORTH OF P/CWA. 00Z WIND PROFILE WOULD NOT SUGGEST STRONG SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE WITH 12Z SOUNDING. WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH...THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...EVENTUALLY APPROACHING THE GULF COAST BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH FIRST 36 HRS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...
BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS
EASTERN CANADA AND EASTERN SEABOARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY PUSH ITS
INFLUENCE EAST INTO THE P/CWA. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. KEPT SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIP IN FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. SOME UNCERTAINTY
APPEARS IN THE MODELS IN LATTER DAYS. IF THE SCENARIO SUGGESTED
BY THE GFS IN CORRECT...RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN ZONES IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED OVER
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH WOULD GREATLY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS REGION. HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE...BUT UNCERTAIN TIMING...WILL HANDLE THE SCENARIO WITH
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TIME BEING. ONCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BEGINS AND TIMING BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR...AMENDMENTS
WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED TO HANDLE THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TOWARD
MIDWEEK...AS THE RIDGE AXIS REALLY TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA...SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH NEAR CALM WATERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS WILL
BE ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. 95/DM


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-02-2009 06:35 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
00Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS HIGHER P.W. AIR HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT BUT
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW RECOVERY BACK IN THE 2.0-2.25 INCH RANGE
TODAY. DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO PROVIDE A PROFILE CONDUCIVE OF DOWNBURST DYNAMICS
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE. ONE
NOTABLE ANOMALY IS THE PERSISTENCE OF A BAND OF NOCTURNAL LINEAR
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA...TO NEAR JACKSON
MS...EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RICHER MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THOUGH THE
PRESSURE TROUGH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE APPEARS TO BE STILL NORTH OF
THE ARKLATEX AT 06Z. A MORE ROBUST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE MOBILE AREA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLUMN OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THETA-E AXIS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME OF THE OUTFLOW FEATURES MAY BECOME A
FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ONCE
THE GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE GETS UNDERWAY LATER THIS MORNING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE APPEARS TO BE AROUND 88F. WILL GO ALONG
WITH MODEL TRENDS OF DRYING THE COLUMN OVER TIME TO JUSTIFY LOWER
DAYTIME COVERAGE...ABOUT 30 PERCENT...FOR MONDAY AND PERHAPS 10-20
PERCENT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO HOVER A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO CONTINENTAL WESTERLY FLOW INFLUENCES OFF THE SURFACE
INTERACTING WITH GENERAL BERMUDA RIDGE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DAILY RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH POPS MAY BE
10 PERCENT OR SO BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. NO FRONTS OR
TROPICAL SYSTEMS NOTED AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT KMCB. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WITH
VICINITY GROUPS. ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO FIRE...AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED TO INDICATE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF CONVECTION AT EACH
TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
AS BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS AS WELL. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND LOW SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE
CURRENT AIRMASS IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT AS
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. 95/DM


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-03-2009 04:45 AM

XUS64 KLIX 030900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH THATS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY IS FINALLY LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL TRANSITION FROM DAILY
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN
TO THE AREA TO A MUCH LESS COVERAGE REGIME. THIS WILL PARTLY BE THE
REASON FOR MODIFICATIONS IN DAILY HIGHS THIS WEEK. LOWER TO MID 90S
WILL PERSIST MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNER REGION WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SH/TS ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE
ORIENTED POPS IN THAT FASHION. GFS LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE TOO ANEMIC
ON PRECIP OUTPUT WHILE NAM GUIDANCE IS MUCH HIGHER SO HAVE GONE WITH
A COMPROMISE OF 20-30 POPS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE THE
LAST DAY OR SO. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING DRYING TREND WITH
PWATS DECREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL SEEM
MORE TYPICAL FOR SUMMER TIME AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. SFC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH THESE WEAK
WINDS AND SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. MAY ENTER
IT INTO THE FORECAST DURING NEXT ISSUANCE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN AREAS OF LIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BE HERE TO STAY WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND CENTER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE
ISO TO SCT TSRW IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY GRADUALLY
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
COLUMN APPEARS TO HAVE DRIED CONSIDERABLY AFTER YESTERDAY`S MCS
PASSAGE. DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED NEAR KMCB MAY BE TOO SUBTLE
TO PROVIDE MUCH FOCUS...PARTICULARLY WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM TEMPO MVFR BR NEAR
SUNRISE AT KBTR AND KMCB. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED LESS
THAN PROB30 COVERAGE SO WILL JUST HINT WITH CB CLOUD DECK DEVOID OF
PROB OR TEMPO THROUGH NEXT 24-30 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY STATE BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENSION IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY 10 KNOT
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1 FT NEXT FEW DAYS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSED THUSFAR THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PAST
SEVERAL MORNINGS. 24/RR

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 08-04-2009 04:07 AM

XUS64 KLIX 040846
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...THE CWA IS COMPLETELY RAINFREE
AND NOT FAR FROM CLOUDFREE TOO. ATMO COLUMN DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
BUT STILL HAVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR NORMAL. SOUNDING FROM MON 00Z
HAD PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUN
FORECAST ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS FOR SUCH LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SIMILAR. HAVE BASICALLY RETAINED
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST WITH SCHC ALONG AND EAST OF MAINLY THE I-55
CORRIDOR AND SOUTH THROUGH LAFOURCHE PARISH. AREAS TO THE WEST OF
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY RAIN AND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN SEE
MANY CLOUDS. SE LA WILL IS CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR FIRING OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WHEN LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCT
COVERAGE. FLOW UP TO 25K FT MAXES AT A WHOPPING 7KTS...SO NOT
EXPECTING SVR OR FAST MOVING STORMS. PROBABLY BE A OUTFLOW DOMINANT
DAY. VERY DRY LAYER IN MID AND UPPER LAYERS SHOULD ENHANCE OUTFLOW
WINDS AND WOULDN/T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THESE GUSTS REACH 35 KTS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN HIGHS ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE AS 850 TEMPS AND HGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN MS COUNTIES AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND QUITE WEAK.

.LONG TERM...
WED SHOULD BE MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY WITH SCT SH/TS MOSTLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ALSO. AS THURSDAY
ROLLS AROUND...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE ON AN EASTWARD MOVING
JOURNEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND ONE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH EXTENDS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
GFS IS QUITE DRY AT AROUND 10 PCT WHILE NAM IS IN THE 40 TO 50 PCT
RANGE. DIDN/T GO AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM YET BUT DO HAVE 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SLIDELL THROUGH NEW ORLEANS TO
HOUMA AND PROGRESSED DOWNWARD TO 20 PCT IN NWRN AREAS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN QUICKLY ENGULF THE ENTIRE SERN US THIS
WEEKEND. KEPT SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL COMPRESS THE RIDGE AND SHIFT IT BACK WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD MAKE ROOM FOR A COLD FRONT TO SWING SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH THE
AREA.

MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 08-05-2009 05:34 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE HRS. THE TS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THATS VIS THROUGH 11-3.9 SAT AND SFC WIND OBS.
ALSO...RUC13 SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA ALONG.
ISO TO SCT STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON.

A QUITE STRONG MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY IN
WESTERN KY THROUGH SERN MO. THE LINE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AT AROUND 45 MPH. QUESTION STILL REMAINS ON IF
THIS FEATURE WILL EVEN REACH THE CWA. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A 00-06Z
TIME FRAME FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THAT
TIME...INSTANTLY WILL BE MUCH LESS AND RUC SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER VORT
MAX FORCING. SO...CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE OUTFLOW DRIVING MCS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AR/MS TODAY. BY THE TIME IT REACHES
SE LA AND SOUTHERN MISS...ONLY A FEW SHWRS AND TSRMS WILL BE LEFT.

MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE USUAL DAILY SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY. SO HAVE AFTN POPS HIGHER
FROM HOUMA TO SLIDELL AND SEWD. OTHER AREAS MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS 850 TEMPS COME UP BUT ONLY LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR
TWO.

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS. AREAS
NORTH OF I-10 WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST. SCT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS BTW THIS RIDGE AND
ONE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE SUPPRESS
SOUTHWARD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS THIS HIGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SERN US. A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF SOUTH LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S...HEAT INDICIES WILL PROBABLY STILL GET INTO THE LOWER 100S IF
NOT UP TO 105. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2 INCHES
AND REMAINING THERE. WITH SUCH MOISTURE ON TAP...30 TO 40 POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VIS WILL CONTINUE AT MCB AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPS AT GPT THIS
MORNING AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LOWERS AND -BR DEVELOPS BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH NOT IN TAFS...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS TODAY. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A TERMINAL BEING IMPACTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP. SFC RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA WILL KEEP
WINDS QUITE WEAK...PEAKING AROUND 6 KTS. SCT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AROUND 3K FT. VFR WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE GULF AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY AND BARELY DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BECOME TOO
INTENSE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CAUSING THE WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE
NORTH DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&